COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[RegionSox]

There was an automated test approved for labs in the last few days.  Labcorp expects to be ramping up the amount of tests they run every night.  Until now they has a very manual method that took a few days.

[Bananarchy]

1 hour ago, black jack said:

If nothing else it buys time for more preparation. 

And there are some serious potential treatments for the virus in their early stages.

[mqr]

48 minutes ago, Eloy Jiménez said:

And there are some serious potential treatments for the virus in their early stages.

Pretty sure remdesevir is actually really far along given that it was original made for Ebola. 
 

edit: far along enough To know that it doesn’t kill people at least

Edited March 17, 2020 by mqr

[Bananarchy]

10 minutes ago, mqr said:

Pretty sure remdesevir is actually really far along given that it was original made for Ebola. 
 

edit: far along enough To know that it doesn’t kill people at least

That's one of the big ones. There are multiple treatments under consideration, including one or two preventative treatments, which, if safe, would be obligatory for healthcare workers.

Edited March 17, 2020 by Eloy Jiménez

[Dick Allen]

23 hours ago, scotty22hotty said:

blow it out your ass. The Dems focused all of their energy on the impeachment farse for ALL of January and first week of Feb while the country could've been focused on this Chinese contravirus. Instead they called him racist for his Jan 31 ban on China and possibly avoiding a Europe-like meltdown.

Thankfully JB is manning up as a gov and taking initiative instead of spending his entire time blaming Trump.

Believe it or not but Trump is not a dictator... It's the states role to lead the charge over it's population. Why didn't any states act when Trump closed travel from China? ...oh right, hindsight is 20/20

Time for all of us to start living in the now that's grounded in reality instead of blaming others.

The line was it was a democratic hoax. And they claimed they had it contained. The cases were going to be at or near zero in a couple of days. 
 

BTW, Trump now claims he knew this was going to be a pandemic all along.

[southsider2k5]

3 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

The line was it was a democratic hoax. And they claimed they had it contained. The cases were going to be at or near zero in a couple of days. 
 

BTW, Trump now claims he knew this was going to be a pandemic all along.

Don't forget this would be gone by April.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

CEO/boss tested positive. Pretty ridiculous; he was at the office on Friday and reportedly symptomatic; we had meetings and etc all day. Just stupid.

[SoxAce]

They cancelled production at my job till tomorrow. And apparently 2 people from another plant got the virus.

https://patch.com/illinois/downersgrove/22-coronavirus-cases-confirmed-willowbrook-nursing-home

Oh and a friend of mine sent me a screenshot that they asked him on Sunday that they were looking for pta help for the next 2 weeks. Thank god he declined. 

[hi8is]

2 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

CEO/boss tested positive. Pretty ridiculous; he was at the office on Friday and reportedly symptomatic; we had meetings and etc all day. Just stupid.

That is indeed complete utter stupidity... to his ( little ) credit, on Friday morning things were much different.

[StrangeSox]

So far 19 people have been tested at Silver Cross hospital, 10 negative, still waiting on 9 more results....

[Balta1701]

So um this.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1239975682643357696.html

 

Quote

 

The Imperial College team plugged infection and death rates from China/Korea/Italy into epidemic modeling software and ran a simulation: what happens if the US does absolutely nothing -- if we treat COVID-19 like the flu, go about our business, and let the virus take its course? 

Here's what would happen: 80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself. 

It gets worse. People with severe COVID-19 need to be put on ventilators. 50% of those on ventilators still die, but the other 50% live. But in an unmitigated epidemic, the need for ventilators would be 30 times the number available in the US. Nearly 100% of these patients die. 

So the actual death toll from the virus would be closer to 4 million Americans -- in a span of 3 months. 8-15% of all Americans over 70 would die. 

 

Quote

Finally, the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, assuming a "suppression" strategy: isolate symptomatic cases, quarantine their family members, social distancing for the whole population, all public gatherings/most workplaces shut down, schools and universities close. 

Suppression works! The death rate in the US peaks 3 weeks from now at a few thousand deaths, then goes down. We hit but don't exceed the number of available ventilators. The nightmarish death tolls from the rest of the study disappear. 

But here's the catch: if we EVER relax suppression before a vaccine is administered to the entire population, COVID-19 comes right back and kills millions of Americans in a few months, the same as before. 

After the 1st suppression period ends in July, we could probably lift restrictions for a month, followed by 2 more months of suppression, in a repeating pattern without triggering an outbreak or overwhelming the ventilator supply. Staggering breaks by city could do a bit better. 

But we simply cannot EVER allow the virus to spread throughout the entire population in the way other viruses do, because it is just too deadly. If lots of people we know end up getting COVID-19, it means millions of Americans are dying. It simply can't be allowed to happen. 

18 months of this. 

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

So um this.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1239975682643357696.html

 

18 months of this. 

 

 

One would like to think over that amount of time they could scale up the ventilator purchases...or simply do a lend/lease program akin to post World War Two, creating a world-wide “community bank” of resources and also private partners when public stockpiles are insufficient (like the testing kits fiasco.)

Drugs are going to be more complicated, with so much production being sourced here in China.

Every country can continue to isolate itself further...or we can all decide to collaborate.

 

But nobody believed those Imperial College numbers from Niall Ferguson here in China, either.   Ignore them at your own peril...but especially your parents and grandparents or even greatgrandparents.

For what it’s worth, local infections the last three days in Wuhan are just 4, 1 and 1.   Almost everything virus related now is coming from outside the country due to travel.  This is Day 56 of full lockdown.  Still haven’t gone outside once, which is quite painful with the really pleasant spring weather and abundant sunshine. 

 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-the-first-coronavirus-error-was-complacency/

Yet, although the curve of confirmed U.S. cases looks about as steep as the curve for Italy, there appears to be a lag. Some have hypothesized that the U.S. is about 11 days behind Italy, so that San Francisco will be where Milan is today by March 26. But why is it behind? The obvious explanation is the disastrous slowness with which the U.S. has been able to make functioning COVID-19 tests available. Even without testing, however, we would expect to see many more people already falling ill and dying in American hospitals. It is not as if older Americans are on average healthier than their Italian contemporaries: rather the opposite, I should think.

A better explanation, which I owe to two German economists, is that Italy’s social network may differ from that of the U.S. in terms of general gregariousness and physical proximity and, more importantly, in terms of interactions between the older and younger generations.

 

 

Edited March 18, 2020 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

So those last three points at the bottom which Dr. Niall Ferguson made....on the differences between Italy and South Korea, combined with:

4) different strains of the virus  in the two countries, Italian version more virulent

5) generally an older/aging population in Italy

6) affecting older men at almost 2X the rate as women and the culture of heavy smoking prevalent in both Italy/China

7) social distancing influenced by old young living apart in US, whereas in Asia or Italy you commonly see 2-3 generations living together...even going as far as the more intimate way people greet each other in Italy, Spain and France

 

But a recent study by China’s Centre for Disease Control based on data in the country found that 14.8 per cent of people aged 80 and older who are infected die of the virus.

The study found an 8 per cent death rate for people in their 70s and a 3.6 per cent death rate for those in their 60s. By comparison, estimates of the death rate in the overall population are around 1 per cent or lower.

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3075500/coronavirus-epidemic-warning-hong-kong-and-others-prepare-reality

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/18/politics/donald-trump-coronavirus-leadership-challenge/index.html

 

 

Edited March 18, 2020 by caulfield12

[greg775]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

 

 

One would like to think over that amount of time they could scale up the ventilator purchases...or simply do a lend/lease program akin to post World War Two, creating a world-wide “community bank” of resources and also private partners when public stockpiles are insufficient (like the testing kits fiasco.)

Drugs are going to be more complicated, with so much production being sourced here in China.

Every country can continue to isolate itself further...or we can all decide to collaborate.

 

But nobody believed those Imperial College numbers from Niall Ferguson here in China, either.   Ignore them at your own peril...but especially your parents and grandparents or even greatgrandparents.

For what it’s worth, local infections the last three days in Wuhan are just 4, 1 and 1.   Almost everything virus related now is coming from outside the country due to travel.  This is Day 56 of full lockdown.  Still haven’t gone outside once, which is quite painful with the really pleasant spring weather and abundant sunshine. 

 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-the-first-coronavirus-error-was-complacency/

Yet, although the curve of confirmed U.S. cases looks about as steep as the curve for Italy, there appears to be a lag. Some have hypothesized that the U.S. is about 11 days behind Italy, so that San Francisco will be where Milan is today by March 26. But why is it behind? The obvious explanation is the disastrous slowness with which the U.S. has been able to make functioning COVID-19 tests available. Even without testing, however, we would expect to see many more people already falling ill and dying in American hospitals. It is not as if older Americans are on average healthier than their Italian contemporaries: rather the opposite, I should think.

A better explanation, which I owe to two German economists, is that Italy’s social network may differ from that of the U.S. in terms of general gregariousness and physical proximity and, more importantly, in terms of interactions between the older and younger generations.

 

 

 

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

So um this.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1239975682643357696.html

 

18 months of this. 

It says: 

"But here's the catch: if we EVER relax suppression before a vaccine is administered to the entire population, COVID-19 comes right back and kills millions of Americans in a few months, the same as before. 

After the 1st suppression period ends in July, we could probably lift restrictions for a month, followed by 2 more months of suppression, in a repeating pattern without triggering an outbreak or overwhelming the ventilator supply. Staggering breaks by city could do a bit better. 

But we simply cannot EVER allow the virus to spread throughout the entire population in the way other viruses do, because it is just too deadly. If lots of people we know end up getting COVID-19, it means millions of Americans are dying. It simply can't be allowed to happen."

 

-- So as I feared there will be no sports and no activities that include crowds for 18 months or so. The minute we relax and allow regular interactions as before we start dropping dead. This is bizarre because 18 months of this will mean what, 50 percent of Americans will be let go from their jobs and nobody will be going to school? I guess all kids will be homeschooled? 

We've been told for years a significant amount of folks live paycheck to paycheck. A lot of people have started their own businesses. Nobody wants to talk about the economy but it will be decimated.

 

So we have Americans with no income forced to say at home for basically 2 full years. We have no sports and we pretty much have no way to pay for food. Suddenly what we were arguing about a month ago ... democrats like AOC with their free stuff theories vs the very rude Trump and his mean nicknames for demo candidates ... seems pretty silly. We're all stuck indoors for 18 months and we have no sports and no incomes. 

Folks this would be a good time for Russia/China to invade us. 

p.s. How come we never hear about Russia with this disease. So China is recovering rapidly and almost over it and how is Russia doing? Do they even have corona? Was this germ warfare? So many questions and nothing but despair here.

[caulfield12]

3 hours ago, greg775 said:

 

It says: 

"But here's the catch: if we EVER relax suppression before a vaccine is administered to the entire population, COVID-19 comes right back and kills millions of Americans in a few months, the same as before. 

After the 1st suppression period ends in July, we could probably lift restrictions for a month, followed by 2 more months of suppression, in a repeating pattern without triggering an outbreak or overwhelming the ventilator supply. Staggering breaks by city could do a bit better. 

But we simply cannot EVER allow the virus to spread throughout the entire population in the way other viruses do, because it is just too deadly. If lots of people we know end up getting COVID-19, it means millions of Americans are dying. It simply can't be allowed to happen."

 

-- So as I feared there will be no sports and no activities that include crowds for 18 months or so. The minute we relax and allow regular interactions as before we start dropping dead. This is bizarre because 18 months of this will mean what, 50 percent of Americans will be let go from their jobs and nobody will be going to school? I guess all kids will be homeschooled? 

We've been told for years a significant amount of folks live paycheck to paycheck. A lot of people have started their own businesses. Nobody wants to talk about the economy but it will be decimated.

 

So we have Americans with no income forced to say at home for basically 2 full years. We have no sports and we pretty much have no way to pay for food. Suddenly what we were arguing about a month ago ... democrats like AOC with their free stuff theories vs the very rude Trump and his mean nicknames for demo candidates ... seems pretty silly. We're all stuck indoors for 18 months and we have no sports and no incomes. 

Folks this would be a good time for Russia/China to invade us. 

p.s. How come we never hear about Russia with this disease. So China is recovering rapidly and almost over it and how is Russia doing? Do they even have corona? Was this germ warfare? So many questions and nothing but despair here.

Greg, the purpose of the article and projections by Dr. Ferguson was to scare the hell out of world leaders...before it’s too late to avoid going down such a path.

Finally, the UK and Boris Johnson have figured it out.

 

The irony is that ONLY the idea of the NFL season and UFC being wiped out FINALLY pushed Trump to start taking it more seriously.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/03/trump-awakens-to-the-covid-19-danger#intcid=recommendations_default-popular_43a0a69e-53f8-4291-b253-d3a5a8e80ca0_popular4-1

 

 

 

[bmags]

Wife's coworker got it. His roommate had to go to the hospital for breathing difficulty. They could only get tested basically about a week after they started exhibiting symptoms.

Both under 30. 

[hogan873]

I can't even watch or read the news anymore.  Not just because it's depressing as hell, but also because no one really knows anything.  It's just a bunch of speculation and guesses.  News programs are bringing on "experts", and one will be a doomsayer and speculate we'll be locked down for a year while another will say "if we do this, then we could be okay in two months."  Erring on the side of caution is certainly the way to go, and social distancing will slow the spread and "flatten the curve".  Because the US has so few tests, we don't know, and may never know, how many people are actually infected or have already recovered from it.  That's both bad and good news.  Bad news, obviously, because there are certainly more cases out there.  Good news is that the mortality rate is probably significantly lower than it looks.  I would hazard to guess that there are quite a few people who have had the virus and wrote it off as the flu.  The heightened awareness is good, but let's hope those who are symptomatic but with mild symptoms stay at home and don't overwhelm the hospital system.

Overall, these are very strange times.  If something significant doesn't happen soon with the containment of the virus, many businesses will not survive.  I'm hopeful that in 6-8 weeks there's progress and restrictions are lifted/relaxed.  Only time will tell at this point.

[Bananarchy]

My wife is an ER doctor. My life has been an absolute nightmare for about a week. Now I have to face really tough decisions about whether I leave the house because of risk of exposure or if I just stay here and ride it out. If we had kids it would be fairly straightforward: myself or my wife would go somewhere. We don't have kids, so I'm not sure it's even worth leaving if I'll probably get it anyway.

Stay at home people. 

Edited March 18, 2020 by Eloy Jiménez

[TaylorStSox]

1 hour ago, Eloy Jiménez said:

My wife is an ER doctor. My life has been an absolute nightmare for about a week. Now I have to face really tough decisions about whether I leave the house because of risk of exposure or if I just stay here and ride it out. If we had kids it would be fairly straightforward: myself or my wife would go somewhere. We don't have kids, so I'm not sure it's even worth leaving if I'll probably get it anyway.

Stay at home people. 

When nearly half the workforce is living check to check, "stay at home people" isn't exactly feasible. 

[Soxbadger]

The doom and gloom of 18 months and all of that stuff is helping no one right now. We all have to stay positive. We have to help other people if we can.

Do what you can to stay safe, but if you need to work, do your best to limit exposure and make smart decisions.

 

[caulfield12]

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3075732/coronavirus-hubeis-migrant-workers-living-fear-debts-mount
 

It’s the same way for migrant workers here, many who have not been able to work for 8-10 weeks now.

Even if we have the greatest health care system in the world for the top 20%, the bottom 80% is still quite vulnerable...which means that every single American is vulnerable.   Whether we point the finger at Millennials, 18-24 year old Spring Breakers or illegal immigrants...it really doesn’t matter, because having to make a decision between losing one’s job and taking care of a family vs. preserving the health of those sixty and over will eventually lead to tragic results.  

Inequality of access to quality health care and sick leave.....or simply societal inequality (celebrities and athletes having no problems getting a test), something has to be done.   Listening to C-Span, every thirty minutes you get a new story of people hoarding necessities at grocery stores while seniors are struggling just to get by.  Why can’t they have specific senior hours at grocery stores to help make their lives easier?  Heck, do it during flu season, too.

You shouldn’t have to go through 2-3 doctors...nurses....administrative assistants, getting sent to 2-3 more possible places to get a test, with unreturned phone calls and runarounds.  Someone has to be accountable for results.  The system just beats people down and makes them give up...meaning they go out when they’re sick out of frustration because nobody can even tell them if they’re sick or not and need to stay in self-quarantine.

[caulfield12]

17 minutes ago, Soxbadger said:

The doom and gloom of 18 months and all of that stuff is helping no one right now. We all have to stay positive. We have to help other people if we can.

Do what you can to stay safe, but if you need to work, do your best to limit exposure and make smart decisions.

 

Sure, but it didn’t help to mention July or August, either.

2-3 months is the amount of time it SHOULD take if everyone does what they're supposed to do.  Here in China, those decisions are/were taken away from people.

But if authorities see young people going out to bars and clubs, flooding restaurants...celebrating St. Patrick’s or congregating en masse in Florida for Spring Break, then those governors will likewise take more and more freedoms away.  

You’ll have the National Guard enforcing quarantines...the more people who act like that guy in Kentucky who tested positive and refused to stay home. 

[default]

24 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Listening to C-Span, every thirty minutes you get a new story of people hoarding necessities at grocery stores while seniors are struggling just to get by.  Why can’t they have specific senior hours at grocery stores to help make their lives easier?  Heck, do it during flu season, too.

They’re doing this in the MSP area....
https://kstp.com/coronavirus/target-and-cub-announces-new-store-hours-dedicated-vulnerable-guest-shopping-time-march-17-2020/5676855/

[caulfield12]

Shut it down...the entire country for 30 days.

GM, Ford, Fiat/Chrysler about to shut down.

Airports not far behind.  Then hotels.  Etc.

The government can’t afford to bail out every individual company...but they can make the workers whole.

No rent collection, no interest charged, loans deferred...everyone needs to take a break with their family and have the entire government take over.

Do it incrementally and it’s months or years to get back to normal. 

[greg775]

4 hours ago, hogan873 said:

I can't even watch or read the news anymore.  Not just because it's depressing as hell, but also because no one really knows anything.  It's just a bunch of speculation and guesses.  News programs are bringing on "experts", and one will be a doomsayer and speculate we'll be locked down for a year while another will say "if we do this, then we could be okay in two months."  Erring on the side of caution is certainly the way to go, and social distancing will slow the spread and "flatten the curve".  Because the US has so few tests, we don't know, and may never know, how many people are actually infected or have already recovered from it.  That's both bad and good news.  Bad news, obviously, because there are certainly more cases out there.  Good news is that the mortality rate is probably significantly lower than it looks.  I would hazard to guess that there are quite a few people who have had the virus and wrote it off as the flu.  The heightened awareness is good, but let's hope those who are symptomatic but with mild symptoms stay at home and don't overwhelm the hospital system.

Overall, these are very strange times.  If something significant doesn't happen soon with the containment of the virus, many businesses will not survive.  I'm hopeful that in 6-8 weeks there's progress and restrictions are lifted/relaxed.  Only time will tell at this point.

Nice thoughtful post. I agree with your second and third sentences a lot. I don't like reading or listening to news either because of the uncertainty. It seems to me there have been rash decisions after rash decisions with the obvious goal to make us all stay home. I personally don't think it's un-American to question this a bit. We've gone from a carefree country mostly discussing partisan politics this past year and doing whatever the hell we want to do, go wherever we want to go, to being told to stay cooped up and don't dare leave your abode.

I happen to question why we can't sit in a coffee shop and work when there always are no more than 5 people in there. While I tend to agree with social distancing nobody knows for sure if sitting in a coffee shop in Lawrence Kansas at 2 p.m. on.a Wednesday is harming me and the world both.

I liked the fact there was a story that Kansans are "outraged" the decision was made to close all schools at all levels. While I may agree with the decision I think some of these decisions are a bit harsh with no public input. Just shut up and do what the experts say.

Forgive me for not handling staying home very well. It's difficult for some of us to deal with even if it may be a selfish attitude.

Edited March 18, 2020 by greg775