COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, Kyyle23 said:

Laura Ingraham literally tweeted today that she wants an end date.  We aren't dealing with rational thought 

End date for her show.

We have what amounts to an upside down V curve for Fox viewers looming....and a more flattened curve for roughly 50% of the country.    

[southsider2k5]

For those who were worried our pattern was following Italy's, have no fear, we are now passing them.  I updated the last four days based on the same website.

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, Soxbadger said:

The only usefulness for tests is to 1) quarantine people who are infected and 2) identify those who have had it and are potentially now able to work safely and not catch it again.

Otherwise testing numbers are just numbers. 

4% is the international average at this point, roughly.   US running closer to 1.25-1.5, like South Korea.   Italy 5-6%.

We really won’t have a clue in the US until the peak 4-6 weeks from now, 3-5 if you guys are lucky and some of these more restrictive lockdowns work.   The big difference here is most of the problems were restricted to ONE area the size of California.  US, the problems are so spread out.

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

For those who were worried our pattern was following Italy's, have no fear, we are now passing them.  I updated the last four days based on the same website.

Bah, you have to mentally shift ours an unknown distance because of our spectacular failure of testing. We're absolutely still uncovering cases that would have been identified a week ago in italy.

[Balta1701]

17 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

End date for her show.

We have what amounts to an upside down V curve for Fox viewers looming....and a more flattened curve for roughly 50% of the country.    

Viruses don't work like that. If 10% of the population decides they're not going to listen to these precautions then it explodes, you take it home to your relatives and contaminate health care workers, service workers, and surfaces all around you. The person carrying your Amazon order doesn't care whether you're a Laura Ingraham fan or not. This is why we're at "Shelter in place" in some of the better-run states already - that's the last step before the police are enforcing the quarantines. 

[Quin]

9 minutes ago, Tony said:

That's EXACTLY the type of account I would assume that would come from, and I guess my point is I think you're going to start seeing that a lot in the coming days. I think it could get ugly. 

I'm worried because while my parents, who are in their 60s and have both had respiratory issues, actively avoid media like that, they live in a retirement community. Many of their friends in the retirement community follow people like Ingraham. 

It takes 1 person to decide "fuck this, I'm done," to wipe out the entire community, including my parents, who are only leaving to get groceries.

[NWINFan]

There are some that claim there is too much alarmism. Yet, Mitch McConnell was joking about it at news conference, saying he had been through things like this before. No, Mitch, we haven't been through anything like this before. Alarmism? How about denial big time? This is no hoax. It is a tragedy of huge proportions.

[caulfield12]

13 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Viruses don't work like that. If 10% of the population decides they're not going to listen to these precautions then it explodes, you take it home to your relatives and contaminate health care workers, service workers, and surfaces all around you. The person carrying your Amazon order doesn't care whether you're a Laura Ingraham fan or not. This is why we're at "Shelter in place" in some of the better-run states already - that's the last step before the police are enforcing the quarantines. 

What I meant was the radically different reactions across the country are leading to a less desirable result overall...certainly nothing like South Korea, HK, Taiwan and Singapore.

And yeah, it’s virtually impossible to separate political infections in that 16 to early 30’s age group because significant numbers seemingly aren’t concerned about anyone beyond themselves as evidenced by oblivious public behaviors.  

That said, less than a week ago...the eight states that were providing basically no guidance or restrictions were so-called Trump red states.

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, Tony said:

Exactly. And my fear is more voices are going to appear with that message over the next 10 days. 

gregs of the world, this is your chance!

[southsider2k5]

34 minutes ago, NWINFan said:

There are some that claim there is too much alarmism. Yet, Mitch McConnell was joking about it at news conference, saying he had been through things like this before. No, Mitch, we haven't been through anything like this before. Alarmism? How about denial big time? This is no hoax. It is a tragedy of huge proportions.

Unless Mitch lived through 1918, no we haven't see anything like this.

[mqr]

27 minutes ago, Tony said:

Exactly. And my fear is more voices are going to appear with that message over the next 10 days. 

In ten days everyone is going to be terrified to leave their house if it goes anything like italy

[Soxbadger]

https://www2.illinois.gov/Documents/ExecOrders/2020/ExecutiveOrder-2020-10.pdf

 

Here is the order if anyone wants to read it.

[gatnom]

There is definitely a distinct lack of "end game" right now. Herd immunity needs to come one way or another, and it seems unlikely that you'd be able to keep Americans cooped up until a vaccine is developed (12-18 months is the time frame that I've seen speculated). It's hard to imagine the government getting the testing thing together, so I have to imagine this will have to get a whole lot worse before it gets better. Hope I'm wrong.

[Balta1701]

6 minutes ago, gatnom said:

There is definitely a distinct lack of "end game" right now. Herd immunity needs to come one way or another, and it seems unlikely that you'd be able to keep Americans cooped up until a vaccine is developed (12-18 months is the time frame that I've seen speculated). It's hard to imagine the government getting the testing thing together, so I have to imagine this will have to get a whole lot worse before it gets better. Hope I'm wrong.

I don't think you can guess what the endgame will be until you get past the hump. If people keep ignoring these orders and it keeps spreading, things will get so bad in the next couple weeks that getting out of the whole we dug will be good enough for now. 

[gatnom]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I don't think you can guess what the endgame will be until you get past the hump. If people keep ignoring these orders and it keeps spreading, things will get so bad in the next couple weeks that getting out of the whole we dug will be good enough for now. 

I think my worry is that you see cases spike again every time the orders are lifted. In theory, staying in place for a sufficiently long time flattens the curve, but I don't know if things will be that simple to not overburden the system.

[Balta1701]

31 minutes ago, gatnom said:

I think my worry is that you see cases spike again every time the orders are lifted. In theory, staying in place for a sufficiently long time flattens the curve, but I don't know if things will be that simple to not overburden the system.

We've got to stop it first. Note this fact:

 

 

 

[southsider2k5]

25 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

We've got to stop it first. Note this fact:

 

 

 

And this is with massive undercounting. 

[Balta1701]

Just now, southsider2k5 said:

And this is with massive undercounting. 

The massive undercounting might be a reason why we're so steep as we're slowly filling in the gap with some occasional tests.

But, if people genuinely don't know whether or not they have it, or they don't realize they were just in contact with an infected person because there's no tests, they don't know whether they should quarantine, and that will also accelerate the spread.

Both are probably contributing.

[Dick Allen]

My doorman has it. He was at work Monday, in fact I spoke to him for a minute or so. Didn’t seem ill at all. But I guess on Tuesday he deteriorated. Obviously his job exposes him to everything, but one scary thing is he has always been a clean freak, way before the pandemic. He is always spraying, purelling , etc.

Kind of scary as I don’t know what I should do. I doubt they would give me a test. I am now working from home, but my wife has asthma so I need to be really careful.

[Heads22]

Redownloaded the Folding@Home app. Might as well let my computer do something to help while I sit around my place.

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, gatnom said:

There is definitely a distinct lack of "end game" right now. Herd immunity needs to come one way or another, and it seems unlikely that you'd be able to keep Americans cooped up until a vaccine is developed (12-18 months is the time frame that I've seen speculated). It's hard to imagine the government getting the testing thing together, so I have to imagine this will have to get a whole lot worse before it gets better. Hope I'm wrong.

Except herd immunity quickly overwhelms a healthcare system, even a nationalized one like NHS in the UK.

Both countries are in similar situations, fighting from behind the curve.

Seems Germany has done a good job, considering they had some of the very first cases imported directly from Wuhan months ago.

 

US government has known about this since January 8, it is being reported.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-bungling-by-white-house-is-now-too-late-to-be-fixed-obamas-ebola-czar-says-135230984.html

Edited March 21, 2020 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

https://eand.co/the-upsides-of-a-global-pandemic-4dbb00be4a03
Warning:  only read if you want to be challenged to think about this from a more radical, “big picture” perspective

Also note the misinformation that’s so widespread.

A video on youtube from 5 years ago about a Chinese woman talking about eating bats on a Polynesian island...created this belief that is now conventional wisdom.  They most definitely were not selling bats at the wet market here in Wuhan.  I walked by it numerous times.  But they were most assuredly selling pangolins and civet cats, which connected the virus from bats to humans in this situation and SARs in 2002-03.  Those animals are considered delicacies in certain parts of China and Vietnam, but by the rich.  And they are also believed to have medicinal healing powers for Chinese Traditional Medicine.

Edited March 21, 2020 by caulfield12

[StrangeSox]

That big Imperial College study in the UK that finally got them to abandon their herd immunity "plan" had an outline of what they expect. Roughly eighteen months until vaccines are widely available. Waves of shelter in place interspersed with periods of relaxed restrictions until infections pop up locally or regionally again.

 

How sustainable that really is, how well it'll would really adhere to that until the fall of 2021, is a big question mark obviously.

 

The alternative is accepting mass death across most ages but skewed towards the elderly.

 

 

 

Edit: hopefully the initial indications of success with hcq treatments holds. That would be a substantial treatment measure while a vaccine is developed, but it needs early intervention.

 

Testing testing testing. We should have been building out massive infrastructure for that and medical care for months already rather than insisting it was all a "hoax"

Edited March 21, 2020 by StrangeSox

[StrangeSox]

34 minutes ago, Heads22 said:

Redownloaded the Folding@Home app. Might as well let my computer do something to help while I sit around my place.

Hell yeah gonna remote into a number of now dormant servers at work this weekend to set this up

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Dick Allen said:

My doorman has it. He was at work Monday, in fact I spoke to him for a minute or so. Didn’t seem ill at all. But I guess on Tuesday he deteriorated. Obviously his job exposes him to everything, but one scary thing is he has always been a clean freak, way before the pandemic. He is always spraying, purelling , etc.

Kind of scary as I don’t know what I should do. I doubt they would give me a test. I am now working from home, but my wife has asthma so I need to be really careful.

I would try to get tested if I were you.