COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[NorthSideSox72]

TO ALL - 

As this is such a huge issue, we want to keep the subject open. However, let's do what we can to avoid the partisan politics. We closed the Filibuster forum for a reason. And we will delete posts as needed in here.

I realize it's impossible to discuss this without at least some reference to political leaders. Just keep it civil and try to avoid the taking sides. Thank you.

 

[almagest]

37 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

https://news.yahoo.com/why-italy-coronavirus-death-toll-162100030.html
 

Italy and Spain have struggled because they are more social and thought the herd immunity (see UK) would be effective alone, without extensive testing...until they realized their health care system would be overrun.   Now they need to ask for US troops to enforce the quarantine.

Italy in particular also has a ton of smokers, has the 5th highest median age in the world (45.5 - the US is 38.1) and 48.6% of those who died had 3+ comorbidities

[Texsox]

Every country is unique, yet we have almost every country stats here. I'm not certain if, or how, this thought may be relevant, but we could pull out of our population the exact match for Italy. It would just be a subset of our much bigger population. Kind of like the geographical equivalent of fitting Italy into a map of west Texas. 

[bmags]

I am very worried about new york.

And feeling like Georgia and FLA may look that way in a week. For obvious demo reasons, florida really concerns me.

[turnin' two]

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-22/coronavirus-outbreak-nobel-laureate

 

https://news.yahoo.com/study-says-high-temperature-high-213034915.html

 

Some reasons for hope.

[Jack Parkman]

Out of all of the major cities in the country to live in, right now Chicago seems to be the best because the governor shut it down very early in the process. He was proactive rather than reactive. As such, we're probably going to end up with fewer cases than other major cities. 

Edited March 23, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[tray]

 

Forget Italy. Look at what is happening in New York City now.

 One death per hour and rising.

People would really be be freaking in the  Chicago area if we start piling up dead bodies from CV19  like NYC is.

if we get that bad it will be National Guard time to protect people from themselves. 

Edited March 23, 2020 by tray

[StrangeSox]

Sen. Klobuchar's husband is in the hospital on supplemental oxygen. He went to the ER after coughing up blood.

 

 

 

[tray]

Geezus Chryst.

[Soxbadger]

15 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Out of all of the major cities in the country to live in, right now Chicago seems to be the best because the governor shut it down very early in the process. He was proactive rather than reactive. As such, we're probably going to end up with fewer cases than other major cities. 

I agree, but also think there is some dumb luck in the fact that bad weather/cold temperatures make people more willing to stay at home. 

[Texsox]

20 minutes ago, bmags said:

I am very worried about new york.

And feeling like Georgia and FLA may look that way in a week. For obvious demo reasons, florida really concerns me.

Not only are there the permanent residents but there are also the part time residents who are now returning "up north". Basically Florida receives the "snow birds" east of the Mississippi river, Texas receives the "winter Texans" from west of the Mississippi. Most left before Spring Break descended in early March. At least one couple tested positive while here. 

[southsider2k5]

Indiana is putting in a shelter in place order which starts the 25th.

[southsider2k5]

The fed is signalling for unlimited QE.  Damn.

[Jerksticks]

I’m still trying to figure out if the infected amount in USA is 30,000 (obviously not remotely close), hundreds of thousands (eh, really though?), millions, tens of millions or hundred million +.  
 

pretty much everybody I know is sick or has been sick recently.  Tens of millions is my guess due to the rural communities lagging behind.  What does your gut tell you?  

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

I’m still trying to figure out if the infected amount in USA is 30,000 (obviously not remotely close), hundreds of thousands (eh, really though?), millions, tens of millions or hundred million +.  
 

pretty much everybody I know is sick or has been sick recently.  Tens of millions is my guess due to the rural communities lagging behind.  What does your gut tell you?  

Then you'd have hundreds of thousands of dead. 

[southsider2k5]

31 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

I’m still trying to figure out if the infected amount in USA is 30,000 (obviously not remotely close), hundreds of thousands (eh, really though?), millions, tens of millions or hundred million +.  
 

pretty much everybody I know is sick or has been sick recently.  Tens of millions is my guess due to the rural communities lagging behind.  What does your gut tell you?  

The number is obviously MUCH higher than has been indicated simply from looking at the NBA players and Senators who have gotten tests without being symptomatic, and how many of them them have tested possible.  1 in the Senate, 2 in the House, and at least 13 members of the NBA.  Keep in mind there are 100 Senators, 435 in the House, and somewhere around 500 NBA players.  Those ratios aren't a perfect way to project samples on to population, but interesting none the less that they are in the 1:100 ish range.

[Texsox]

What makes that subpopulation different is they have the economic means to travel and they come into contact with people who have traveled. Would you agree that they may be the worst case scenario group (other than people whose job it is to come into contact with the virus)? 

[almagest]

24 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Then you'd have hundreds of thousands of dead. 

That's not necessarily true. The death rate (and likely the infection rate) isn't a normal distribution, so you can't say "if 10,000 people get it and 200 die that means if 100,000,000 got it 200,000 would die". The current understood death rates should be broken down by age and comorbidities and it's a disservice to everyone to not add those numbers when discussing.

Also, numbers like CFR are misleading at this point anyway because we don't know the true number of infected. My guess is we've been dealing with this for longer than everyone knows and we're looking at a real infection rate of 10x? 100x? the known number of infections right now.

[bmags]

4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The number is obviously MUCH higher than has been indicated simply from looking at the NBA players and Senators who have gotten tests without being symptomatic, and how many of them them have tested possible.  1 in the Senate, 2 in the House, and at least 13 members of the NBA.  Keep in mind there are 100 Senators, 435 in the House, and somewhere around 500 NBA players.  Those ratios aren't a perfect way to project samples on to population, but interesting none the less that they are in the 1:100 ish range.

yeah, key with those demos though is their jobs put them in tons of contact. General pop almost certainly lower than taking those samples.

[caulfield12]

We pretty much just lost our jobs.

CIE followed suit with IB and cancelled all A-Levels exams around the world.

Now the question becomes what they do with online teaching (students not in Grade 12), planning, Extended Essays, personal statements, etc.

The local/Chinese teachers who were working online were just at 30% of previous salaries.  That said, the students paid all their school fees at the beginning of the year, so the parents of current seniors aren’t going to ask for partial refunds (tuition around $15-17,500 for most) but things are going to get dicey for Grades 7-11.

The students I was working with have their AS (Grade 11) exams cancelled and will go with internal/predicted grades instead.  It’s going to be quite the mess for university admissions offices to sort out.  Glad that’s not my job, at least.

If they cut salaries, until August, we will lose 50-75% of teachers.  And good luck recruiting new intl. teachers (maybe recent US education graduates desperate for any job with hiring freezes) to come to Wuhan, Coronavirus Central.

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, almagest said:

That's not necessarily true. The death rate (and likely the infection rate) isn't a normal distribution, so you can't say "if 10,000 people get it and 200 die that means if 100,000,000 got it 200,000 would die". The current understood death rates should be broken down by age and comorbidities and it's a disservice to everyone to not add those numbers when discussing.

Also, numbers like CFR are misleading at this point anyway because we don't know the true number of infected. My guess is we've been dealing with this for longer than everyone knows and we're looking at a real infection rate of 10x? 100x? the known number of infections right now.

If you're talking about 10s of millions of people you have such a large statistical set that it doesn't really matter, the numbers would be monstrous. 

We're probably around 100k infections nationwide right now, give or take a factor of 4, but not millions. We are probably comparable to Italy in number of infections, give or take a factor of 4, but because we aren't shutting things down like they did we are growing our numbers far faster than they did once they got to this point. 

They are seeing 600+ deaths per day, we're about 100 deaths per day right now, so we've got a few days before we catch up, but we're on a path to do so quite effectively.

[caulfield12]

7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If you're talking about 10s of millions of people you have such a large statistical set that it doesn't really matter, the numbers would be monstrous. 

We're probably around 100k infections nationwide right now, give or take a factor of 4, but not millions. We are probably comparable to Italy in number of infections, give or take a factor of 4, but because we aren't shutting things down like they did we are growing our numbers far faster than they did once they got to this point. 

They are seeing 600+ deaths per day, we're about 100 deaths per day right now, so we've got a few days before we catch up, but we're on a path to do so quite effectively.

The one encouraging number (so far) has been mortality rates much closer to countries like South Korea or Germany.

But the idea of things letting up at the end of 15 days is absolutely nonsense...novel viruses don’t work that way.  We’re still 21-31 days from NYC peak, and they’re already worried about making it through the weekend, and reusing masks, bandannas, etc.

If we follow trends in Italy and China, that’s anywhere from a 7.5-10% infection rate with doctors and nurses. Disastrous, potentially...even bringing back retired and pushing forward medical and nursing school students onto the battlefield.

Edited March 23, 2020 by caulfield12

[bmags]

7 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

We pretty much just lost our jobs.

CIE followed suit with IB and cancelled all A-Levels exams around the world.

Now the question becomes what they do with online teaching (students not in Grade 12), planning, Extended Essays, personal statements, etc.

The local/Chinese teachers who were working online were just at 30% of previous salaries.  That said, the students paid all their school fees at the beginning of the year, so the parents of current seniors aren’t going to ask for partial refunds (tuition around $15-17,500 for most) but things are going to get dicey for Grades 7-11.

The students I was working with have their AS (Grade 11) exams cancelled and will go with internal/predicted grades instead.  It’s going to be quite the mess for university admissions offices to sort out.  Glad that’s not my job, at least.

If they cut salaries, until August, we will lose 50-75% of teachers.  And good luck recruiting new intl. teachers (maybe recent US education graduates desperate for any job with hiring freezes) to come to Wuhan, Coronavirus Central.

Man I''m sorry to hear that caulfield. Hopefully things change from that outlook.

[StrangeSox]

50 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

I’m still trying to figure out if the infected amount in USA is 30,000 (obviously not remotely close), hundreds of thousands (eh, really though?), millions, tens of millions or hundred million +.  
 

pretty much everybody I know is sick or has been sick recently.  Tens of millions is my guess due to the rural communities lagging behind.  What does your gut tell you?  

Actual experts seem to be estimating tens of thousands in each state last week. Tens of millions is way way way out of range and doesn't correlate with accelerating hospitalizations and deaths at all.

 

 

 

 

[StrangeSox]

Potentially good news from Italy, so long as we see this through and don't listen to the increasing chatter about "just open everything back up"

As for the wisdom of the people saying we should just open everything back up, Lindsey Graham has a solid point:

 

The idea that we can trade a few hundred thousand lives just to get the economy back quickly doesn't really make sense. You aren't going to have a functional economy alongside a raging pandemic.

Edited March 23, 2020 by StrangeSox