COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[The Beast]

11 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Has Trump ever taken responsibility for anything in his entire life?

Or not taken an opportunity to insult a female reporter?

 

Well, it doesn’t matter what we wants with the two coastal coalitions already...and taking the position as president that you’re ready and willing to put American lives at risk because you’re desperate to save your presidency isn’y going to fly.

Every single poll out the last two weeks has significant majorities against reopening.

CNN, you shouldn’t need to have the chyron “president melts down” or “president tries to rewrite history.”  That will just give him another talking point about the biased media.  If voters aren’t smart enough to figure it out yet, well...

 

Most prominent and successful people in the country/world will be on the committee to reopen the economy, lol.

No state should think about reopening until the number of deaths per day is under 50.  Realistically, it should be the entire country under 50.

What is this about a propaganda video produced for the briefing?   They created something that looks more like a campaign ad but will be charged to taxpayers?   How could anyone be surprised?

 

 

 

Can you give me a recap of what I missed? I heard something about how he ripped Pelosi, said something about China and shared a propaganda video. 
 

Are the governors of the coasts forming coalitions to re-open when they want to instead of when he says to?

[soxfan49]

He is an absolute travesty

[caulfield12]

51 minutes ago, The Beast said:

Can you give me a recap of what I missed? I heard something about how he ripped Pelosi, said something about China and shared a propaganda video. 
 

Are the governors of the coasts forming coalitions to re-open when they want to instead of when he says to?

I joined 90 minutes in at 630 a.m. China time.

 

Two points, the China travel ban was just 20% of travelers, ONLY tourist visas.  80% of Chinese passengers still got through.

Secondly, even if the national stockpiles were completely barren (they weren’t) at the end of the Obama administration, the swine flu and ebola issues depleted part of it and it’s not exactly like the Tea Party Congresses were pinpointing that as a spending priority, in fact, quite the opposite.  There were three plus years to fix it, but surely he never knew they existed before six weeks ago.  Finally, the CDC is clearly the one who messed up the testing.  How could there be an existing test sitting around ready for a virus no scientist had ever encountered before?

 

Yes, six eastern states (NY, NJ, CT, RI, MA, PA) and then Washington, Oregon and California.

 

Edited April 13, 2020 by caulfield12

[mqr]

10 minutes ago, soxfan49 said:

He is an absolute travesty

How has it taken this long for a reporter to put his feet to the flame

[caulfield12]

30% of Americans will still get Covid-19 even if they maintain current measures through August 1st...that’s a sobering thought.

Just one model, but the opening up of the entire country on May 1st will be an unmitigated disaster and lead to a series of haphazard closures over the course of many months.

[southsider2k5]

It looks like we have actually flattened the curve nationally.  Our peak new cases number is 9 days ago.

 

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

It looks like we have actually flattened the curve nationally.  Our peak new cases number is 9 days ago.

 

We can’t really know because of the lack of testing.   It needs to be at least 5% if not 10% of the entire country tested, at least for antibodies.   It’s accurately reflecting the NYC/NJ peaks...but that’s so overweighted in the total test numbers we are getting a much less accurate picture of the other 48 states. 

Maybe its happening?

But the argument that Arkansas is having great success because of a lack of population density/natural social distancing...is not possible to verify without surveillance testing, especially in poor/rural/outlying areas of the state without adequate health care coverage and/or access. 

[Chicago White Sox]

36 minutes ago, soxfan49 said:

He is an absolute travesty

I can’t believe any mentally stable human was capable of voting him for POTUS.  I don’t care what your political party is.  I don’t care how bad of a candidate Hilary was (and yes she sucked).  Trump is a selfish unethical incompetent douche bully manipulator.   Him being POTUS is an abomination to the free world and we’re finally paying the price for it now.

Edited April 14, 2020 by Chicago White Sox

[caulfield12]

Just weeks ago, we had a class Jeffersonian argument for deferring to the States, in terms of giving them the authority to decide on their own about lock-down/stay at home policies.   Fine, it was his way of getting out of responsibility for shutting down those economies, but at least it fits with the GOP standard operating procedure ever since 1981 under Ronald Reagan.

Now, he suddenly has the absolute authority to override any governor...well, just because he has the ability to punish or reward them with life-saving supplies as President and because Jared Kushner is now in charge of "our" national stockpile and which political hacks in GA, FL and TX receive it first?

That's got to be the most ridiculous argument ever.

I ALMOST hope it goes to the Supreme Court, and they override the governors and take responsibility for the loss of thousands of additional lives...because it would highlight the broken politicization of that body as well.  (But then it would give Trump yet another OUT, the S.C. made the decision, I'm not responsible for that either, despite nominating the two most recent justices who tipped the balance even further.)

 

Here's the thing...can anyone imagine Governor Mike Pence of Indiana deferring to Barack Obama in such a situation?   Would any Republican governor during the Bill Clinton years have agreed to cede authority to the White House in such a situation?

NO WAY IN H.E.L.L.!!!

 

 

Edited April 14, 2020 by caulfield12

[StrangeSox]

From a former soxtalker

 

 

[StrangeSox]

36 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

We can’t really know because of the lack of testing.   It needs to be at least 5% if not 10% of the entire country tested, at least for antibodies.   It’s accurately reflecting the NYC/NJ peaks...but that’s so overweighted in the total test numbers we are getting a much less accurate picture of the other 48 states. 

Maybe its happening?

But the argument that Arkansas is having great success because of a lack of population density/natural social distancing...is not possible to verify without surveillance testing, especially in poor/rural/outlying areas of the state without adequate health care coverage and/or access. 

Need to watch for tomorrow's numbers anyway. We've been seeing weekend and Monday dips followed by heavy Tuesday reports.

 

But ultimately we are still far, far short of where we need to be with testing anyway.

[caulfield12]

54 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

Need to watch for tomorrow's numbers anyway. We've been seeing weekend and Monday dips followed by heavy Tuesday reports.

 

But ultimately we are still far, far short of where we need to be with testing anyway.

We had the same thing happen in China.

They started changing the way they were reporting the test results...they went back and forth on it (asymptomatic vs. positive tests with symptoms) and then ended up dumping 15,000 cases in the middle of the statistics, which created a huge outlier in the trendline.

 

All I know is that Chris Murray dude from Washington with the IHME model argued that the number of COVID-related deaths should be at 60 or below for the entire country before he would consider opening it up.

As this things moves westward, it's probably going to be well into June before we see numbers THAT low, knowing there's usually at least a 7-10 day staggering from when most patients start exhibiting symptoms to actually ending up in life or death struggles on a ventilator in the ICU.

The rule China created was that there had to be ZERO deaths for 14 days before they would open up Hubei.  I think it turned out to be 3 or 4 over that entire time.    Which is obviously a much stricter standard than less than 60 deaths in the entire country for ONE day.

[Balta1701]

23 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

We had the same thing happen in China.

They started changing the way they were reporting the test results...they went back and forth on it (asymptomatic vs. positive tests with symptoms) and then ended up dumping 15,000 cases in the middle of the statistics, which created a huge outlier in the trendline.

 

All I know is that Chris Murray dude from Washington with the IHME model argued that the number of COVID-related deaths should be at 60 or below for the entire country before he would consider opening it up.

As this things moves westward, it's probably going to be well into June before we see numbers THAT low, knowing there's usually at least a 7-10 day staggering from when most patients start exhibiting symptoms to actually ending up in life or death struggles on a ventilator in the ICU.

The rule China created was that there had to be ZERO deaths for 14 days before they would open up Hubei.  I think it turned out to be 3 or 4 over that entire time.    Which is obviously a much stricter standard than less than 60 deaths in the entire country for ONE day.

However you draw the line - IMO more important is that you have ramped up your testing capacity and your local health departments are capable of deploying rapid tracing everywhere. 

It's very clear you won't be able to fully eliminate it any time soon, so you have to be ready to manage the response to new cases before you open any doors. If you have 1 case pop up in a rural county somewhere, Can you test every person who was at any spot where the new patient was within the last 4-5 days? That's rapid deployment of hundreds of tests. Can you then identify how they got it, because the person who transmitted it to them could have transmitted it to many others, and then trace back that person's motion before one of those cases leads to an explosion somewhere? Even the well-run countries are struggling with this, and we've just got so many weaknesses.

[Dick Allen]

5 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

It will be no time at all before we see one of these Easter megachurch services will do the same for spreading.

A pastor at a church in VA that held a service defying the local ban a couple of  weeks ago just died of the virus.

Wonder what will happen in WI after the election last week, and all that closeness. Trumps candidate lost anyway.

 

[hi8is]

3 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

30% of Americans will still get Covid-19 even if they maintain current measures through August 1st.

How are you arriving at this claim?

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, hi8is said:

How are you arriving at this claim?

It was on a CNN broadcast with Erin Burnett or Anderson Cooper...it's going to be hard to find because I didn't take the time to write down notes or look at the small print at the bottom of the screen whenever they show a model.   It's possible it was one of the IHME scenarios out of the University of Washington, looking at what would happen if we went back to the way things were a month ago (everyone doing whatever they wanted), maintained the current level of stay at home or loosened restrictions (but not all at once).

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

However you draw the line - IMO more important is that you have ramped up your testing capacity and your local health departments are capable of deploying rapid tracing everywhere. 

It's very clear you won't be able to fully eliminate it any time soon, so you have to be ready to manage the response to new cases before you open any doors. If you have 1 case pop up in a rural county somewhere, Can you test every person who was at any spot where the new patient was within the last 4-5 days? That's rapid deployment of hundreds of tests. Can you then identify how they got it, because the person who transmitted it to them could have transmitted it to many others, and then trace back that person's motion before one of those cases leads to an explosion somewhere? Even the well-run countries are struggling with this, and we've just got so many weaknesses.

Once again, there were HUNDREDS of thousands doing contact tracing alone in China.   In just ONE major city of 11 million, and then the outlying province with a population roughly the same as CA but much more concentrated.

We don't have that capacity ANYWHERE.

We don't have the ability to have everyone in the United States all adopting the same cell phone messaging service (QQ/Weixin or WeChat) or mobile payments (Alipay) to create that kind of a national tracking system (you're also seeing it in South Korea) with green/red/yellow codes..."real time" track of those hot zones, etc.

We especially don't have the ability to distribute food to houses/apartments on a massive scale...at an affordable price, and quickly.   Which means lack of access to quality food will begin to disproportionately impact poorer communities in the coming weeks.   For example, the upcoming shortages of pork (Smithfield in SD) and beef products, that will also result in massive shortages and/or price hikes.

The Chinese have hundreds of thousands of drivers on scooters or e-bikes.  Meituan Dianping and Ele.ma, it's an oligarchy, essentially.  Bigger than the Chinese army.  They make only 75 cents to 1.50 per delivery, with NO TIPPING.  We couldn't scale up deliver and logistics like that if it was ORDERED by the President under the Defense Production Act.

So exposing hundreds of thousands of people to weekly or bi-weekly grocery shopping definitely works against us.

People STILL trying to go to church, yet another factor.

A large number of older people NOT in nursing homes, but exposed when they do go to grocery stores and have to wait in long/er lines...here in China, food was brought/delivered directly o older people, fruits/vegetables/noodles/rice/dumplings, at least basic staples to get by so nobody had to go out of their apartments.

Next, having 30+ million without access to health insurance (still haven't seen that all the insurance companies agreed to treat ALL Covid-19 related costs, or get subsidies back from the government, or how they were going to contain outbreaks among homeless communities, jails/prisons and immigrant/refugee groups, whether border areas or farming/meat processing, etc.

Not to mention 7 states still don't even have stay-at-home orders because they think everything is fine because they're simply not testing (or hardly at all.)

 

Then you're going to have to move all the doctors, nurses and equipment across the country whenever there's an outbreak that can't be controlled locally...whereas here in Hubei Province, EVERYONE from across the country came here, built two new hospitals completely from scratch to isolate ONLY those with serious/critical/ICU needs like respirators, etc.   Everyone that was "cured" and went home....they didn't even go home right away, they went into quarantine for two more weeks away from their family.   And then many who couldn't originally be accepted at hospitals, were reported by neighbors, tried to get medicine from the local pharmacies, they ALSO were put in these quarantine centers (hotels, sports stadiums, convention centers) to isolate them away from the general population.

 

Edited April 14, 2020 by caulfield12

[The Beast]

Here is the ad I referenced before.

[caulfield12]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/politics/what-matters-april-13/index.html

It’s time to talk more seriously about the food supply

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/13/opinions/firing-fauci-disaster-for-trump-americans-dantonio/index.html

As former and current White House officials have revealed, the Trump administration is an often-chaotic place where the tone is set by a President who has declared he likes having "acting" and not permanent officials in place so he can move people around more readily. This practice created problems in many of the agencies that were supposed to respond to the pandemic. At the key Department of Homeland Security, according to the Washington Post tracker, just 35% of the top jobs are filled. 

Trump also has a bad habit of shirking responsibility and blaming his failures on others.

When he says things like "I don't take responsibility at all," when asked about the lack of coronavirus testing, he reveals his problematic management style. Is it any wonder that several weeks after the coronavirus appeared in the US, no one in the White House had taken responsibility for creating a system to obtain the medical equipment that would be needed?

It's no surprise, then, that Robert Kraft, owner of the New England Patriots, took matters into his hands and sent a plane to China to buy 1.2 million N95 masks.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/13/media/propaganda-donald-trump-reliable-sources/index.html

With that in mind, here's what Trump's trusted adviser Sean Hannity said to Texas governor Greg Abbott on Monday night: "I think most states can reopen even sooner than later -- we don't have to wait til May 1”
....

In an alternate universe...

Oliver Darcy adds: I know this has become a cliché thought experiment, but please oblige me: Can you imagine how the hosts and pundits on Fox News and in the greater conservative media landscape would have reacted if President Obama walked out into the White House briefing room and declared that his "authority is total"? It's really, quite honestly, a bit hard to fathom how frantic the coverage would have been. It would have been apocalyptic. Off the rails. Crazed. But with Trump? None of that...

 

Edited April 14, 2020 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

And THIS is why we are not attempting “herd immunity”

 

One third of National Health Service staff and other key workers who’ve been tested for coronavirus have returned positive results, according to data released by the British government.

According to the figures released Monday, 16,888 people who fall into the category of “key workers and their households” have been tested. So far, 5,733 – or 34% -- are confirmed to have the virus.

The government has been under pressure to ramp up testing for NHS workers and their families, amid concerns about a lack of appropriate personal protective equipment. 

Health minister Matt Hancock has previously said that NHS staff who show symptoms -- or live with someone who does -- will be able to get tested under the government’s plan, with the ultimate goal to provide testing to all NHS staff regardless of symptoms.

www.cnn.com

[Texsox]

From the Morning Brew  

https://link.morningbrew.com/click/20018258.753565/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubW9ybmluZ2JyZXcuY29tL2RhaWx5L3IvP2tpZD05ZjQ3MTk5ZA/5cf7034844d51f506205eaf0B18d395f8

 

Israel's plan to reopen.

The plan consists of four phases and focuses on opening more lucrative sectors first, Haaretz reports:

Phase 1: Tech and finance, plus slices of trade-oriented industries. These sectors employ more than 10% of the population. 

Phase 2: Commerce and retail stores. 

Phase 3: Restaurants and hotels. The NSC expects most of the education system will be back at this point, too.

Phase 4: Recreational sectors like sports, air travel, and entertainment.

If that seems like a straightforward process, consider these caveats:

• Each phase will have a two-week buffer to review whether the next can proceed.
• All of the public health guidelines we've been subject to (social distancing, face masks, etc.) will be required for reopening industries.
• None of these phases applies to people over 60 and other at-risk populations.

Bottom line: Coronavirus restrictions will almost definitely extend into the summer.

+ While we're here: NY, NJ, and a few other northeastern states have formed a task force to coordinate reopening their economies. So have some West Coast states.

 

 

[caulfield12]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-s-coronavirus-task-force-amassed-power-it-boosted-industry-n1180786
 

Trying to decide if this is actually worse than the lengthy NYT article over the weekend.   Not sure what else can go wrong for this new group, facing a fusillade of reporters’ questions Tuesday afternoon.   

What else can go awry?

Let’s see if we can make it through these next 24 hours before comparisons of President Truman challenging a music critic that harangued his daughter’s singing performance start popping up.

[bmags]

 

I would like to know this, some stat that's the equivelant to "tests performed/tests ordered". Because of early rationing, it's possible that the higher pos rate is in fact just the reality of fewer people with parallel sickness (seasonal flu, colds) as seasons change/hand washing takes over, so the only people with symptoms are getting tested are more likely to be covid positive.

However, I'm thinking this would be a good sign to see if our testing and tracking pushes past its initial limitations. They have been passive, but for Illinois to get to 10k a day, you'd be testing people that came into contact with positive results. 

 

[caulfield12]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/13/trump-coronavirus-reopening-council-184927
 

Reopening Council, who nobody really even knows more than a handful of names (apparently not Ivanka or Jared)...to issue some type of guidelines on reopening the country this week.

Good luck with that one.

 

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

You can use this tool to go through daily projections on everything associated with Covid-19.

June 5th is the first day of under 60 deaths nationally, according to these most recent projections.

Back up to 68,841 total deaths.   Jumped up about 8150 since last week.

Edited April 14, 2020 by caulfield12

[bmags]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/13/trump-coronavirus-reopening-council-184927
 

Reopening Council, who nobody really even knows more than a handful of names (apparently not Ivanka or Jared)...to issue some type of guidelines on reopening the country this week.

Good luck with that one.

 

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

You can use this tool to go through daily projections on everything associated with Covid-19.

June 5th is the first day of under 60 deaths nationally, according to these most recent projections.

Back up to 68,841 total deaths.   Jumped up about 8150 since last week.

I think they had an issue in their model of symmetry to when cases went down deaths did in same fashion, rather than cases as leading indicator. Maybe they fixed it.