COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[bmags]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

One of the prisons by us has 90 positive cases out of about 3000 inmates, or 1 in 30 people.

And in singapore it's their guest worker dormitories causing much of the recent outbreak. These close quarters like these are just spreading like wildfire.

[Balta1701]

13 minutes ago, almagest said:

That doesn't make sense. If 5% of positives are false then I would expect the actual % of positives to be something like 2.85%. Unless you mean that up TO 5% of the total number of positives are false, meaning anything below 5% are likely all false?

Either way, do you have a source on the 5% false positives? And if this false-positive rate is well known, why wouldn't these sorts of models have those projections built in already (either by direct result adjustment or multiple tests to confirm results)?

1. https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/15/834497497/antibody-tests-for-coronavirus-can-miss-the-mark Not possible to know what test they're using from that report, but here's published examples from the US of tests that would produce that number of false-positives. If your test had a specificity of 97%, and it returned 3% false positives, then almost every positive test would likely be a false-positive.

Quote

Lab giant Becton Dickinson says its coronavirus antibody test has a specificity of 91%. Emory University says its test has a specificity of 95%. Stanford University says its test demonstrated 100% specificity, at least in a preliminary study involving 100 samples. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has been developing an antibody test since the early days of the epidemic, but has not yet published results about its performance.

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/09/998974/immunity-passports-cornavirus-antibody-test-outside/

Quote

There are two key criteria we look for when we’re evaluating the accuracy of an antibody test. One is sensitivity, the ability to detect what it’s supposed to detect (in this case antibodies). The other is specificity, the ability to detect the particular antibodies it is looking for. Scanwell’s chief medical officer, Jack Jeng, says clinical trials in China showed that the Innovita test achieved 87.3% sensitivity and 100% specificity (these results are unpublished). That means it will not target the wrong kind of antibodies and won’t deliver any false positives (people incorrectly deemed immune), but it will not be able to tag any antibodies in 12.7% of all the samples it analyzes—those samples would come up as false negatives (people incorrectly deemed not immune).

By comparison, Cellex, which is the first company to get a rapid covid-19 antibody test approved by the FDA, has a sensitivity of 93.8% and a specificity of 95.6%. Others are also trumpeting their own tests’ vital stats. Jacky Zhang, chairman and CEO of Beroni Group, says his company’s antibody test has a sensitivity of 88.57% and a specificity of 100%, for example. Allan Barbieri of Biomerica says his company’s test is over 90% sensitive. The Mayo Clinic is making available its own covid-19 serological test to look for IgG antibodies, which Elitza Theel, the clinic’s director of clinical microbiology, says has 95% specificity.

2. They may very well have that included, but it is imposisble to know from the article you've cited. It cites "unpublished data from the blood bank" being used, but you don't know who did the study, you don't know if it's publishable, you don't know the motivations of the person citing that number. 

Without full details of of the test used, the knowledge right now is that many of the antibody tests are of moderate quality or worse, return several percent false positive numbers, and the numbers reported in that study are right in the range one would expect based on the false-positive rate. 

[Balta1701]

On 4/15/2020 at 12:00 PM, southsider2k5 said:

I wonder if that is why we see the curve flattening nationally over the last 10 days or so?  No tests, no positives.  No positives, no COVID deaths.

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/04/us-coronavirus-outbreak-out-control-test-positivity-rate/610132/ 

Here's that argument considered in more long form and they seem to consider it plausible. 

[almagest]

41 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

1. https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/15/834497497/antibody-tests-for-coronavirus-can-miss-the-mark Not possible to know what test they're using from that report, but here's published examples from the US of tests that would produce that number of false-positives. If your test had a specificity of 97%, and it returned 3% false positives, then almost every positive test would likely be a false-positive.

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/09/998974/immunity-passports-cornavirus-antibody-test-outside/

2. They may very well have that included, but it is imposisble to know from the article you've cited. It cites "unpublished data from the blood bank" being used, but you don't know who did the study, you don't know if it's publishable, you don't know the motivations of the person citing that number. 

Without full details of of the test used, the knowledge right now is that many of the antibody tests are of moderate quality or worse, return several percent false positive numbers, and the numbers reported in that study are right in the range one would expect based on the false-positive rate. 

Got it. Appreciate the depth. The appropriate response here seems to be skepticism of these results, barring a response to the known quality concerns with antibody tests.

[default]

4 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

Typically the President acting like a clown takes up the headlines. 

Isn’t that what this is?

[bmags]

Please let this continue

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-at-data-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-suggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/

[bmags]

Hopeful thread

 

[StrangeSox]

 

[Heads22]

us iowans don't want to fraternize with you people

we're gonna get infected on our own schedule, thank you very much

[tray]

I thought that by mid April we would have a better understanding of where we are at with this virus. Instead, virtually all of the unknowns about it remain unknown. We don't even know how many have had it, whether those who had it are now immune and if so for how long, what drugs might treat it, at what point patients should have certain experimental drugs administered or be placed on a ventilator, or even how long this virus is surviving on certain  surfaces. The search for a treatment or a vaccine seems like it is all over the place . The tests for anti-bodies seem like they are not as reliable as once thought.

I don't know how a plan to "Open America" makes sense until we get a better idea where we are at  with it and how bad the pandemic could get.

 

Edited April 17, 2020 by tray

[Chisoxfn]

3 hours ago, bmags said:

Please let this continue

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-at-data-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-suggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/

This drug has had very favorable results thus far.  A lot of optimism on this one. Would be huge.  

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, tray said:

I thought that by mid April we would have a better understanding of where we are at with this virus. Instead, virtually all of the unknowns about it remain unknown. We don't even know how many have had it, whether those who had it are now immune and if so for how long, what drugs might treat it, at what point patients should have certain experimental drugs administered or be placed on a ventilator, or even how long this virus is surviving on certain  surfaces. The search for a treatment or a vaccine seems like it is all over the place . The tests for anti-bodies seem like they are not as reliable as once thought.

I don't know how a plan to "Open America" makes sense until we get a better idea where we are at  with it and how bad the pandemic could get.

 

They're going to kill a lot of people.

[Jerksticks]

1 hour ago, tray said:

I thought that by mid April we would have a better understanding of where we are at with this virus. Instead, virtually all of the unknowns about it remain unknown. We don't even know how many have had it, whether those who had it are now immune and if so for how long, what drugs might treat it, at what point patients should have certain experimental drugs administered or be placed on a ventilator, or even how long this virus is surviving on certain  surfaces. The search for a treatment or a vaccine seems like it is all over the place . The tests for anti-bodies seem like they are not as reliable as once thought.

I don't know how a plan to "Open America" makes sense until we get a better idea where we are at  with it and how bad the pandemic could get.

 

Exactly.  Lot of people acting really smart about death rates, infection rates, immunity rates, how infectious it is, how much lockdowns are helping etc.  It’s ALL up for grabs.  Nobody knows a damn thing.  Even deaths aren’t necessarily correct since a lot of the normal things that kill people like heart disease haven’t disappeared, but somehow have statistically.  
 

The one thing people MUST do is question it all, since the science isn’t there yet.  The science doesn’t have actionable data yet.  Asking questions is crucial and the smart scientists and journalists are out there asking questions, playing devil’s advocate, even with themselves.  Good on you for your post- healthiest one I’ve read on here in a while.  I agree- what have we actually learned?  Not too much.  
 

Those people out there blaming and saying all these people are going to die if we open are total idiots, simply because they think they aren’t guessing.  
 

Similarly, the people out there saying this is harmless and shit needs to open up are total idiots, simply because they think they aren’t guessing.  
 

Everybody is guessing and it’s super healthy as long as we admit that.  Certain data points suggest certain things but other data points can point to the opposite.  As long as somebody acknowledges they don’t know what any of this means yet then they are a quality human being worthy of entering discussions.  
 

I think you are right to say it’s early to open up since closing was the path we chose.  Changing course messes with our control.  We need data.  Personally, I think the best data will come from Sweden over the next few weeks. It sort of kinda represents the best controlled exposure over a big population to date.  But I don’t know that for sure since tons of Swedes are probably hiding out.  But overall, they said “screw containment” so we’ll see.  It looks like it might be the FIRST time science can get their hands on real, actionable data.  If we don’t see crazy exponential death in Sweden in the next few weeks...then hell yea.  That would be great for humans.  I think we’re going to get real data, good or bad.

 

[southsider2k5]

Suddenly I am much bigger Lightfoot fan.

 

 

[caulfield12]

Wuhan Update

 

Pretty much no changes here.   My wife has been working for almost three full weeks, and she was just required to do a nose swab (very painful) and blood test this past WED.  The government has recently announced they are not going to pay for foreigners’ Covid-19 treatment, so we are looking at getting supplemental insurance that would cost about $500-600.  Without it, the full cost for treatment here might be something like $25-40,000.   Planes, subway and buses are now running, but still at only about 30-40% capacity of normal levels.   Are waiting on official announcement about school reopening and social distancing guidelines, as most classrooms are pretty cramped to accommodate  30-35 students.  Mock exams scheduled the week of May 11-15.   Just found out Grade 10/11 might not be back until May 18.  Rumors we might go 1-2 weeks longer until end of June, we normally have only IB, AP, A Levels exams from May through early June (exam supervision), but 11th graders will now go until end of June since their official exams were all cancelled (AP has online version and shortened format.)  Some schools are going into July or only paying 50% of normal salaries so we’re pretty fortunate so far.   Still plenty of questions about asymptomatic transmission and those who were originally recovered getting sick again (S. Korea).   Chinese applications to US schools could fall 15-25% next year, so there is growing concern on the part of teachers unable to return to China that their positions could be cut in order to save money, especially after students return in May and online classes are suspended.  SAT will be offered online in US, probably not Asia.  Students thinking about Boston area are already freaking out about Boston U. making contingency plans for Jan 2021 start, fall classes online.
 

[Dick Allen]

7 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

They're going to kill a lot of people.

I agree. 1% of the population has been tested. I cannot believe the scientists caved to this guy. I don’t know how opening up restaurants in Idaho saves the US economy. But the market will jump for a day or two.

[Kyyle23]

9 hours ago, Jerksticks said:

Exactly.  Lot of people acting really smart about death rates, infection rates, immunity rates, how infectious it is, how much lockdowns are helping etc.  It’s ALL up for grabs.  Nobody knows a damn thing.  Even deaths aren’t necessarily correct since a lot of the normal things that kill people like heart disease haven’t disappeared, but somehow have statistically.  
 

The one thing people MUST do is question it all, since the science isn’t there yet.  The science doesn’t have actionable data yet.  Asking questions is crucial and the smart scientists and journalists are out there asking questions, playing devil’s advocate, even with themselves.  Good on you for your post- healthiest one I’ve read on here in a while.  I agree- what have we actually learned?  Not too much.  
 

Those people out there blaming and saying all these people are going to die if we open are total idiots, simply because they think they aren’t guessing.  
 

Similarly, the people out there saying this is harmless and shit needs to open up are total idiots, simply because they think they aren’t guessing.  
 

Everybody is guessing and it’s super healthy as long as we admit that.  Certain data points suggest certain things but other data points can point to the opposite.  As long as somebody acknowledges they don’t know what any of this means yet then they are a quality human being worthy of entering discussions.  
 

I think you are right to say it’s early to open up since closing was the path we chose.  Changing course messes with our control.  We need data.  Personally, I think the best data will come from Sweden over the next few weeks. It sort of kinda represents the best controlled exposure over a big population to date.  But I don’t know that for sure since tons of Swedes are probably hiding out.  But overall, they said “screw containment” so we’ll see.  It looks like it might be the FIRST time science can get their hands on real, actionable data.  If we don’t see crazy exponential death in Sweden in the next few weeks...then hell yea.  That would be great for humans.  I think we’re going to get real data, good or bad.

 

Dude, you guess a lot and claim it's thinking. Sweden is not the holy grail that you think it is, they aren't some perfect science lab that has all of our answers, they are part of a large puzzle that spreads across the world.   You still on the hydro kick?

[bmags]

11 hours ago, tray said:

I thought that by mid April we would have a better understanding of where we are at with this virus. Instead, virtually all of the unknowns about it remain unknown. We don't even know how many have had it, whether those who had it are now immune and if so for how long, what drugs might treat it, at what point patients should have certain experimental drugs administered or be placed on a ventilator, or even how long this virus is surviving on certain  surfaces. The search for a treatment or a vaccine seems like it is all over the place . The tests for anti-bodies seem like they are not as reliable as once thought.

I don't know how a plan to "Open America" makes sense until we get a better idea where we are at  with it and how bad the pandemic could get.

 

I’ll admit I mostly just focus on IL, and it’s probably a defense mechanism that I started feeling optimistic yesterday even though numbers were bleh.

But yesterday did seem to be good news from Pritzker on testing. They had machines two weeks ago that were supposed to hugely impact testing but due to machine issues and lack of expertise they weren’t close to capacity, they are now ready. And he said IL procured what they needed for swabs/reagents.

in addition to that, some friends in hospitals around here have expressed some optimism in strategies to avoid ventilators, which to them are essentially a death sentence. And their PPE has been much less scarce.
 

And the U of C with remdesivir.

Im just hoping this time next week we will finally feel like we have a better handle on the state of IL, and maybe more good news on treatment.

 

[NWINFan]

The Michigan protestors are not really bright. A crowd and no one is wearing masks. All they are doing is endangering themselves. If they get infected they are not only risking their lives, they are proving the governor is right with her stay at home orders. And this "lock her up" chanting. Hilary Clinton's political career is over, and she has no effect on what is happening now. They complain about a too powerful government, but want to lock someone up just because they don't like her. Yes, we always have to be concerned about  an over-reaching government, but this is energy wasted.

[StrangeSox]

43 minutes ago, bmags said:

I’ll admit I mostly just focus on IL, and it’s probably a defense mechanism that I started feeling optimistic yesterday even though numbers were bleh.

But yesterday did seem to be good news from Pritzker on testing. They had machines two weeks ago that were supposed to hugely impact testing but due to machine issues and lack of expertise they weren’t close to capacity, they are now ready. And he said IL procured what they needed for swabs/reagents.

in addition to that, some friends in hospitals around here have expressed some optimism in strategies to avoid ventilators, which to them are essentially a death sentence. And their PPE has been much less scarce.
 

And the U of C with remdesivir.

Im just hoping this time next week we will finally feel like we have a better handle on the state of IL, and maybe more good news on treatment.

 

WGN had one of their epidemiologists (or virologist, someone with relevant expertise anyway) on this morning. He was also very hopeful with the initial results on the UofC trials but did note that this did not include a control group. However, a number of other area hospitals/researchers are doing remdesivir trials with control groups and hopefully we'll know more soon.

 

23 minutes ago, NWINFan said:

The Michigan protestors are not really bright. A crowd and no one is wearing masks. All they are doing is endangering themselves. If they get infected they are not only risking their lives, they are proving the governor is right with her stay at home orders. And this "lock her up" chanting. Hilary Clinton's political career is over, and she has no effect on what is happening now. They complain about a too powerful government, but want to lock someone up just because they don't like her. Yes, we always have to be concerned about  an over-reaching government, but this is energy wasted.

I think the "lock her up" was aimed at Whitmer this time, but ultimately it's the same reactionary message.

[caulfield12]

Literally every disaster movie ever made starts with the government ignoring a scientist.

 

A critical difference between the parties is this, Corlette says: Democrats believe that “the healthy should subsidize the sick—the young, the old—because we all get older and sicker at some point in our lives.

“On the flip side,” she continued, “if you look at what’s underpinning many of the more conservative health-reform ideas … [it’s that] what people pay toward their insurance or their care should reflect their level of risk.”

.....

The biggest paradox in the health-care fight was that the Republican efforts to unravel risk-sharing hurt the material interests of their electoral coalition. The reason is that all their plans raised costs on older people with greater health needs at the same time as their base was becoming older and whiter. Their plans lowered prices for younger people, who now lean reliably toward the Democrats.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/03/what-covid-19-debate-has-common-aca-fight/608797/

Edited April 17, 2020 by caulfield12

[StrangeSox]

56 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

Dude, you guess a lot and claim it's thinking. Sweden is not the holy grail that you think it is, they aren't some perfect science lab that has all of our answers, they are part of a large puzzle that spreads across the world.   You still on the hydro kick?

Sweden is in bad shape and getting rapidly worse anyway. Just as all those experts said would happen, almost as if they *do* know what they're talking about even if the specific data on COVID-19 is limited right now. Belgium also tried the YOLO route and we can see how it's working out for them:

 

[bmags]

27 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

WGN had one of their epidemiologists (or virologist, someone with relevant expertise anyway) on this morning. He was also very hopeful with the initial results on the UofC trials but did note that this did not include a control group. However, a number of other area hospitals/researchers are doing remdesivir trials with control groups and hopefully we'll know more soon.

 

I think the "lock her up" was aimed at Whitmer this time, but ultimately it's the same reactionary message.

I know we can't expect the federal government to actually be proactive just do whataboutism but this is one of those things where I really wish the feds would make a large guarantee of remdesivir now so that if we do find out good news we don't have to deal with production delays. OR like offer a large prize for treatment and buy the patent and produce it generically.

And if it fails it's just cost of trying to end a pandemic.

 

[caulfield12]

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1185711.shtml
 

Here’s another important story.  A Chinese intl. student returning from university in Miami was hospitalized, released, quarantined in Beijing for two weeks, then had to go back to the hospital 19 days after the original quarantine had started and was ultimately diagnosed with Covid (also managed to get his entire family sick.)

They’re starting to rethink adjusting the normal 14 day timeframe to 21 days.

Beijing is still pretty much more locked down than Wuhan, even.  They haven’t allowed a single flight or high speed train to go between the two cities, either.

 

[Texsox]

13 hours ago, tray said:

I thought that by mid April we would have a better understanding of where we are at with this virus. Instead, virtually all of the unknowns about it remain unknown. We don't even know how many have had it, whether those who had it are now immune and if so for how long, what drugs might treat it, at what point patients should have certain experimental drugs administered or be placed on a ventilator, or even how long this virus is surviving on certain  surfaces. The search for a treatment or a vaccine seems like it is all over the place . The tests for anti-bodies seem like they are not as reliable as once thought.

I don't know how a plan to "Open America" makes sense until we get a better idea where we are at  with it and how bad the pandemic could get.

 

I don't know how not planning makes sense. How about this plan?

We open when we have a better understanding of where we are at with this virus. Virtually all of the unknowns  are known. We  know how many have had it, whether those who had it are now immune and if so for how long, what drugs treat it, at what point patients should  be placed on a ventilator, and how long the virus is surviving on certain  surfaces. The search for a treatment or a vaccine is focused and in reach . The tests for anti-bodies are reliable. 

How does that plan not make sense?

Without a plan we're just wandering around aimlessly. Goals and a plan create action and focus.