COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, bmags said:

Yeah there’s plenty of history of prizes in medicine,  it to my knowledge none of the drug industry lighting hospitals on fire.

 

And yet how many prizes are there for drug development?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prizes_as_an_alternative_to_patents

[bmags]

19 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Treatment for this is far more profitable than a cure for drug companies. I'm pretty sure that will determine their focus.

This stuff is not where they make their money. There will be too much pressure to provide it low cost. 

[Dick Allen]

2 minutes ago, bmags said:

This stuff is not where they make their money. There will be too much pressure to provide it low cost. 

Maybe initially. But long term, it's better for them than giving everyone a free shot and be cured. Look at cancer. They spend their time making people live a little longer with it while having to use their product, than never getting it. 

[bmags]

28 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

And yet how many prizes are there for drug development?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prizes_as_an_alternative_to_patents

Mmm hmm because we are in a perpetual state of pandemic and all of our normal incentives apply. 

Let's say our wishes are granted and Remdesivir is actually an effective drug. It can be applied at regular doctors offices and keeps people from dying and lessens need to stay at hospitals.

Do you think Gilead is going to be able to say "wellp, we are the only providers, we get to charge whatever we want because we have a patent, and this is how things normally go"

Because I think it's pretty clear there will be enormous pressure by ...the entire world to provide this at as accessible a cost as possible. I don't know gilead's entire portfolio, but it is very likely to be in Gilead's best interest to do so.

1) As long as this pandemic is as is, elective surgeries and visits to doctors have decreased. With less visits, less opportunity for uncovering and prescribing a host of options.

2) As long as this pandemic is as is, insurance is going to have huge negative pressure with all of the additional ICU and hospital stays causing massive strain on their payouts. This will fall back on drug manufacturers on prices paid or larger copays charged and then...

3) As long as is this pandemic is as is, there will be huge economic fallout causing job loss, (in US) lack of insurance and a host of externalities that reduce purchasing power specifically to a gilead

And then on top of that, there will be a huge push for governments globally to get access to the drug. With economies shut down and people dying by the thousands, there will be huge pressure to gilead to provide the govt close to cost as any number of governments may decide not to respect IP law and take the risks  - because it's extraordinary circumstances right now. Kind of a once in a century pandemic type thing.

Or maybe they would decide to take a huge prize, play the hero, and then lobby the shit out of changing any laws that restrict them.

Or maybe they burn down a hospital! 

[caulfield12]

50 minutes ago, The Beast said:

https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-nw-coronavirus-protesters-trump-20200417-7oad7qhicrc53eywjaclwdsaoq-story.html
 

I didn’t realize there were more groups than just the small protest in Michigan. Interesting how the protests aren’t just in battleground states too.

Who pays the price when they turn out to be wrong?   Definitely not the President, Trump children or Fox News headliners like Carlson, Hannity and Ingraham.   I don’t want an authoritative response like here in China, but they at least have the technological means through cell phone app tracking and contract tracing to be able to pinpoint who was/is responsible for putting themselves, their families and others at risk.   Even if all the GOP governors were to issue back to work orders, roughly 60-65% would be unwilling to go back voluntarily.   Good luck firing them or taking away their unemployment benefits.   Let’s not forget a situation was created to reward a significant percentage of employees more money for staying at home to prevent exactly these types of my health and that of my family vs. economic survival decisions.  This policy was agreed to by both the Senate and the President.

 

https://www.biospace.com/article/gilead-shutters-covid-19-trial-in-china-stocks-drop-3-percent-/

Abrahams interprets all this to suggest limited efficacy of the drug, writing, “We continue to believe that while remdesivir showed a promising signal of activity in the recent open label compassionate use published data, the fact that no data has been revealed from the truncated severe study in China—the only randomized study thus far—despite today’s update also indicated it had enrolled a reasonably robust number of patients (n=237), suggests any benefits observed were likely inconclusive and maintains our view that the likelihood of remdesivir demonstrating substantial activity remains at best 50/50.”

The limited data on the 53 patients receiving the drug on compassionate use basis had no controls and, as a result, made it difficult to draw any definitive conclusions. The study of the 53 patients in the U.S., Europe and Canada who required respiratory support showed that about two-thirds benefited from the drug. 

 

Edited April 17, 2020 by caulfield12

[Chisoxfn]

50 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Treatment for this is far more profitable than a cure for drug companies. I'm pretty sure that will determine their focus.

Not when those companies can’t be as productive when this is going on. Not to mention the PR boom for whatever company or companies deliver on this. 
 

All kinds of large companies are driving and making decisions to try and help the broader country. Stating that big pharma would rather burn down hospitals than help the cause is absolutely absurd and downright deplorable. 

[Chisoxfn]

10 minutes ago, bmags said:

Mmm hmm because we are in a perpetual state of pandemic and all of our normal incentives apply. 

Let's say our wishes are granted and Remdesivir is actually an effective drug. It can be applied at regular doctors offices and keeps people from dying and lessens need to stay at hospitals.

Do you think Gilead is going to be able to say "wellp, we are the only providers, we get to charge whatever we want because we have a patent, and this is how things normally go"

Because I think it's pretty clear there will be enormous pressure by ...the entire world to provide this at as accessible a cost as possible. I don't know gilead's entire portfolio, but it is very likely to be in Gilead's best interest to do so.

1) As long as this pandemic is as is, elective surgeries and visits to doctors have decreased. With less visits, less opportunity for uncovering and prescribing a host of options.

2) As long as this pandemic is as is, insurance is going to have huge negative pressure with all of the additional ICU and hospital stays causing massive strain on their payouts. This will fall back on drug manufacturers on prices paid or larger copays charged and then...

3) As long as is this pandemic is as is, there will be huge economic fallout causing job loss, (in US) lack of insurance and a host of externalities that reduce purchasing power specifically to a gilead

And then on top of that, there will be a huge push for governments globally to get access to the drug. With economies shut down and people dying by the thousands, there will be huge pressure to gilead to provide the govt close to cost as any number of governments may decide not to respect IP law and take the risks  - because it's extraordinary circumstances right now. Kind of a once in a century pandemic type thing.

Or maybe they would decide to take a huge prize, play the hero, and then lobby the shit out of changing any laws that restrict them.

Or maybe they burn down a hospital! 

This 

[Dick Allen]

18 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

Not when those companies can’t be as productive when this is going on. Not to mention the PR boom for whatever company or companies deliver on this. 
 

All kinds of large companies are driving and making decisions to try and help the broader country. Stating that big pharma would rather burn down hospitals than help the cause is absolutely absurd and downright deplorable. 

I disagree. Big Pharma has always put profits first. If it all was about the greater good, your insurance would be a lot cheaper. These are publicly traded companies whose concern is their shareholders. Making money isn't enough. You need to show growth and make more and more every year.

Edited April 17, 2020 by Dick Allen

[caulfield12]

9 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

I disagree. Big Pharma has always put profits first. If it all was about the greater good, your insurance would be a lot cheaper.

And they would have quickly saved thousands and thousands of HIV (and Ebola) patients around the world with generic-pricing of drugs at the beginning of those international crises.

Ooops.  
 

 

Apparently the threat of Bernie Sanders taking over the world, of encroaching socialism...forced Sen. Kelly Loeffler to make all of her insider stock trades, mimicking a bad Ayn Rand novel subplot.   You would think that Joe Biden was a member of SDS out of the 1960’s throwing Molotov cocktails and organizing violent protests when actually he’s about the most conservative Democrat nominated in recent memory.

"This was a political attack designed to take away from the issue at hand. And to use this outbreak to play politics. We have addressed this and taken extraordinary measures to make sure that we can't be attacked for our success. This gets at the very heart of why I came to Washington, to defend free enterprise, to defend capitalism. This is a socialist attack. We have taken extraordinary measures, and I am focused solely on working for Georgians. I have been doing that seven days a week, around the clock. And it's my honor to be here and serve, and that's why I stepped out of the private sector.”

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/politics/kelly-loeffler-stock-coronavirus/index.html

Edited April 17, 2020 by caulfield12

[Soxbadger]

1 hour ago, Dick Allen said:

I wonder why he is tweeting it. He's calling the shots. He has all the control. He is going to provide briefs that prove it. Why doesn't he just relax the restrictions?

He's tweeting because GOP numbers are coming back terrible right now so he is in a complete panic. He is terrified of the investigations if they lose the next election.

[caulfield12]

Just curious.

Have there been any protests yet in Indiana, Massachusetts and Ohio?

Those are three states (so far) with GOP governors aligning with the “out to destroy America because they hate success/liberal cabal Dem governors” on the two coasts and now Heartland/Rust Belt.

 

What about protests against governors in Texas, Georgia and Florida for being too aggressive in reopening?  There’s definitely shaping up to be a battle in SD with Kristi Noem, who ironically came to power over a “fake estate/death tax” backstory that was wholly inaccurate (her father made a simple mistake in financial planning that would have wiped out any tax liability for the family farm.)  

[Balta1701]

32 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Just curious.

Have there been any protests yet in Indiana, Massachusetts and Ohio?

Those are three states (so far) with GOP governors aligning with the “out to destroy America because they hate success/liberal cabal Dem governors” on the two coasts and now Heartland/Rust Belt.

 

What about protests against governors in Texas, Georgia and Florida for being too aggressive in reopening?  There’s definitely shaping up to be a battle in SD with Kristi Noem, who ironically came to power over a “fake estate/death tax” backstory that was wholly inaccurate (her father made a simple mistake in financial planning that would have wiped out any tax liability for the family farm.)  

This one was from Ohio:

[RegionSox]

Probably not a good sign from one of the biggest labs that they are doing furloughs while they still have a huge backlog of Covid tests to run

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/quest-diagnostics-furloughs-employees-cuts-exec-pay

[Dick Allen]

Dead people are getting stimulus checks. Trump really wants their vote.

[bmags]

1 hour ago, RegionSox said:

Probably not a good sign from one of the biggest labs that they are doing furloughs while they still have a huge backlog of Covid tests to run

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/quest-diagnostics-furloughs-employees-cuts-exec-pay

Yeah unfortunately the business of a flu-esque sickness isn't big business. Hospitals doing layoffs too.

[bmags]

So Illinois had it's most cases ever today. At least it tested 8k. That puts it at around the 22% mark still.

[southsider2k5]

9 minutes ago, bmags said:

So Illinois had it's most cases ever today. At least it tested 8k. That puts it at around the 22% mark still.

So did Indiana.  But open the economy. 

[caulfield12]

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/antibody-research-indicates-coronavirus-may-far-more-widespread-155200568.html
Santa Clara (CA) antibody test results suggest real rate of infection is 50-80X higher than officially published numbers.  Fwiw...

Edited April 17, 2020 by caulfield12

[turnin' two]

1 hour ago, Dick Allen said:

Dead people are getting stimulus checks. Trump really wants their vote.

It worked for the Daleys for generations.  Seems worth a try.

[turnin' two]

17 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/antibody-research-indicates-coronavirus-may-far-more-widespread-155200568.html
Santa Clara (CA) antibody test results suggest real rate of infection is 50-80X higher than officially published numbers.  Fwiw...

This basically mirrors a story posted here (I believe) yesterday about blood donors in the Netherlands showing antibodies at about a 3% rate, which is drastically higher than their tested ratio.  

I also saw a story that said over 60% of the sailors that tested positive on the Roosevelt showed no symptoms.  

(I don't think this was the original article I saw, but wanted to post something for reference...)

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/uss-theodore-roosevelt-sailors-coronavirus-asymptomatic

[Jerksticks]

18 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/antibody-research-indicates-coronavirus-may-far-more-widespread-155200568.html
Santa Clara (CA) antibody test results suggest real rate of infection is 50-80X higher than officially published numbers.  Fwiw...

??????

I wonder what the multiplier for super dense, international-headquarters-of-the-world New York would be. 
 

[caulfield12]

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/trump-administration-writing-death-sentence-220200223.html
Unless you love particularly chain restaurants, and consider Ruth’s Chris a small business despite their deep pockets, or typically dine on foie gras with fellow 1%ers...most of our beloved local favorite eating options are going to eventually be wiped out.

Edited April 17, 2020 by caulfield12

[Heads22]

2 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

Dead people are getting stimulus checks. Trump really wants their vote.

I'm curious to see if my mom will get one. We just recently filed her 2019 taxes.

[Dick Allen]

8 minutes ago, Heads22 said:

I'm curious to see if my mom will get one. We just recently filed her 2019 taxes.

I read a woman whose husband died in May of 2018 and changed her status to single when filing in 2019 received a payment for her husband. The other thing I read was the IRS said to keep.

[almagest]

55 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

This basically mirrors a story posted here (I believe) yesterday about blood donors in the Netherlands showing antibodies at about a 3% rate, which is drastically higher than their tested ratio. 

Yup. That was me. There is some concern about how accurate antibody tests are (pointed out by @Balta1701), so I'd take all these results with a grain of salt, but we do seem to be converging on a large disparity between known infections and actual infections. Hopefully that holds because it means this is A) less deadly than we thought and B) we may be closer to herd immunity than we realize.