COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[Jenksismyhero]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

No I actually saw that earlier and knew exactly what it was and knew exactly what they said already and that it was completely inconsistent with global data that I've been paying attention to.  

Anyone, and I mean anyone, who is dumb enough to say "this is a bad flu season", when we have a Vietnam war of deaths in a month and half, needs to be shot down and scoffed at because they are putting people's lives at risk. 

So the data they speak about in the first 15 minutes - number of people tested, % of those people testing positive, and then deaths, all extrapolated out to the total population - is wrong based on what you've seen? 

[NorthSideSox72]

18 minutes ago, Jenksismyhero said:

Very long, but an interesting perspective here.

 

 

Their base assumption that transmission and fatality rates are similar to the flu are demonstrably wrong, and by a lot. That has nothing to do with being a doctor in any case, and simply means looking at numbers. If this WAS like a flu season, then they might be right, though even then you'd be essentially having a DOUBLE flu season so it would still be very bad.

 

[StrangeSox]

33 minutes ago, ScooterMcGee said:

Right, that's been the main concern all along is hospitals becoming overwhelmed. Which is a very valid concern, when you have no data to work with. The data is starting to come in. From what I've researched, a lot of the hospitals are not overwhelmed. In fact health care workers are being laid off because hospitals are not accepting non-critical cases. They are underwhelmed. This is the case where I live and its happening in other parts of the country. The data is starting to come in and I think it's showing that the measures we are taking need to be adjusted.

I think we need to look at this as a more regional and county-by-county crisis, rather than state-by-state. Also, we need to not focus on just numbers. Yes, they are very very important, but contrary to what a lot of people would say, they only tell part of the story.

They're not overwhelmed because we're locked down and reducing retransmission rates

[southsider2k5]

6 hours ago, ScooterMcGee said:

I am as cautious as the next guy, especially when it comes to this current pandemic, but I would like to make the argument that we have way more testing now than we did back on March 26th. That gap you suggested, 900,000 more people having it now than they did a month ago...well our testing has ramped up since then. Could it be that a similar amount of people had it, but there just wasn't enough testing to find out?

If that were true, the % of tests that are positive should be dropping, but they aren't.   We also lag a good chunk of first world countries in terms of testing saturation.  There was also the WaPo article today that seems to clearly show that deaths from covid are also much higher than what is being reported.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Jenksismyhero said:

So the data they speak about in the first 15 minutes - number of people tested, % of those people testing positive, and then deaths, all extrapolated out to the total population - is wrong based on what you've seen? 

Completely.

0.2% of New York City has died. That would be a higher rate of death than the Flu, and that's if everyone had it. Using tests that may still have lots of false positives for the presence or absence of antibodies, New York City has at most 25% of its people infected, meaning  at the very least this is 4x as deadly as the flu. 

[StrangeSox]

5 minutes ago, Jenksismyhero said:

So the data they speak about in the first 15 minutes - number of people tested, % of those people testing positive, and then deaths, all extrapolated out to the total population - is wrong based on what you've seen? 

Yes. Basically they either did sloppy work and sloppy analysis and are spreading dangerous misinformation based on ignorance, or they're cynical enough that they want to reopen their urgent care business and are knowingly pushing for policies that will get many more people killed.

[NorthSideSox72]

44 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

 

This should be interesting. I've read the statutes in question. There's no question about the governor's authority to declare these orders. The only thread that Bailey can hang on is that the statute specifies a 30 day limit to the order. Of course, Pritzker's order beginning 5/1 is a new order technically, not an extension, but that gets into the muddled territory of legal spirit of the 30 day limitation. That puts the whole thing in the who-knows-what-happens-next column. Next up, Illinois Appellate Court. Then, most likely regardless of outcome, IL Supreme Court.

 

[greg775]

2 hours ago, bmags said:

Greg - go outside for walks. Get sunshine. Go to starbucks drive thru.

Wear a mask, bring hand sanitizer. Keep your distance. Wash your mask, wipe down your door handles, wash your hands. You'll be fine.

Thanks Mags. I ordered two masks from a neighborhood person that I pick up tomorrow. That's all I've been doing, what you suggest except for the mask.

Do you think I should go for a haircut? We have relaxed rules Monday but if they don't include barbers I'm considering having a barber who allegedly has a chair in his basement cut it? I am sick of my long corona hair but am wondering if the cut is a bit risky even with my mask.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, greg775 said:

Thanks Mags. I ordered two masks from a neighborhood person that I pick up tomorrow. That's all I've been doing, what you suggest except for the mask.

Do you think I should go for a haircut? We have relaxed rules Monday but if they don't include barbers I'm considering having a barber who allegedly has a chair in his basement cut it? I am sick of my long corona hair but am wondering if the cut is a bit risky even with my mask.

I would call the barber and ask what cleaning and protection procedures they are going to follow.

[bmags]

1 minute ago, greg775 said:

Thanks Mags. I ordered two masks from a neighborhood person that I pick up tomorrow. That's all I've been doing, what you suggest except for the mask.

Do you think I should go for a haircut? We have relaxed rules Monday but if they don't include barbers I'm considering having a barber who allegedly has a chair in his basement cut it? I am sick of my long corona hair but am wondering if the cut is a bit risky even with my mask.

I buzzed my head. You’d have your barber one foot away from your face breathing at you, and they’d have had multiple people breathing at them. 
 

That’s pretty risky.

[greg775]

10 minutes ago, bmags said:

I buzzed my head. You’d have your barber one foot away from your face breathing at you, and they’d have had multiple people breathing at them. 
 

That’s pretty risky.

The only hope is he doesn't have the virus it seems.

[StrangeSox]

27 minutes ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

This should be interesting. I've read the statutes in question. There's no question about the governor's authority to declare these orders. The only thread that Bailey can hang on is that the statute specifies a 30 day limit to the order. Of course, Pritzker's order beginning 5/1 is a new order technically, not an extension, but that gets into the muddled territory of legal spirit of the 30 day limitation. That puts the whole thing in the who-knows-what-happens-next column. Next up, Illinois Appellate Court. Then, most likely regardless of outcome, IL Supreme Court.

 

Wondering about how well-reasoned the judge's argument is.

 

[greg775]

This is very scary. Food shortages apparently are imminent which would mean disaster. Riots trying to buy food, etc. Anybody think we can survive this? Talk me off the ledge please, figuratively speaking.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/food-supply-chain-breaking-tyson-213539680.html

[NorthSideSox72]

6 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

Wondering about how well-reasoned the judge's argument is.

 

Oh the judge is a crusader, you can tell by his statement about the order "shredding" the Constitution. But the legal question around the intent of the 30 days is a good, and precarious one. It's a real issue.

 

[Soxbadger]

33 minutes ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

This should be interesting. I've read the statutes in question. There's no question about the governor's authority to declare these orders. The only thread that Bailey can hang on is that the statute specifies a 30 day limit to the order. Of course, Pritzker's order beginning 5/1 is a new order technically, not an extension, but that gets into the muddled territory of legal spirit of the 30 day limitation. That puts the whole thing in the who-knows-what-happens-next column. Next up, Illinois Appellate Court. Then, most likely regardless of outcome, IL Supreme Court.

 

Ive told anyone who has asked me that the 30 day period is the most unclear part of the law. I think in retrospect that they should have never called it an "extension" and instead said that they would be issuing a "new order."

Ultimately I think that it will prevail, but they should have anticipated this attack.

[caulfield12]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/27/opinions/west-point-graduation-trump-covid-19-hertling/index.html
June 13th West Point commencement address looks like Trump’s first big attempt to get back out in public and hold a rally of sorts...in NY State of all places.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52434854

Cadets have been attending classes virtually since they left campus for spring break on 6 March. 

The president announced on 17 April he would be giving the West Point commencement address this year. 

According to the New York Times, that came as a surprise to West Point event organisers, who had yet to finalise graduation ceremony plans amid the coronavirus pandemic. 

In a weekend editorial, the New York Daily News cautioned "there's no reason to believe that New York State, nor the academy itself, is prepared to host a graduation ceremony amidst a pandemic". 

In a statement, the academy said approximately 1,000 cadets would have to return to campus to pack their dorm rooms, graduate and "eventually move to Army Officer Basic Training".

Edited April 27, 2020 by caulfield12

[Harry Chappas]

I do not believe the Russia and China totals at all.  Also it started in China yet they have the lowest death rate. 

[caulfield12]

Great, now we’re getting VP Pence to provide his expert opinion on testing, and both Dr. Birx and Fauci are sidelined.

Trump, predictably, took no responsibility for the hospitalization increases related to disinfectant.

We have HHS Asst. Secretary Admiral Giroir quoting Fauci on testing without him being there.

Talk of how the Federal government isn’t ultimately responsible for testing...yet more than half the press conference is extolling the virtues of what they have supposedly done or are doing.

Still no idea why reporters don’t call out the President for not bringing up per capita comparisons vs. sheer numbers of tests...guess they’ve given up.

”I built the greatest economy in the history of the world.  I built it.”     Repeats.   “I built the greatest economy thecworld has ever seen.”  (Well, GDP closer to 2% than 4-5% doesn’t exactly count....China was at over 8% GDP growth for nearly thirty consecutive years.)
 

The stock market was at 24,000 two weeks ago, btw.  Just so obvious that everything is viewed from the lens or prism of November rather than the public health crisis aspect of this whole thing.

[caulfield12]

12 minutes ago, Harry Chappas said:

I do not believe the Russia and China totals at all.  Also it started in China yet they have the lowest death rate. 

5.6% isn’t even close to the lowest death rate.

It’s much closer to the worst ten than the most successful countries like South Korea, Germany, Taiwan, Iceland, New Zealand, etc.

 

The United States, as of today, is at that exact same 5.6% rate according to the official numbers.

Edited April 27, 2020 by caulfield12

[The Beast]

16 hours ago, StrangeSox said:

The additional ~$350B in funding for small businesses lasted all of 2 minutes.

Congress is doing maybe 5% of what's necessary to really address what we're facing.

 

And spending $2.4 trillion to combat issues. This is what gridlock gets you, mediocre legislation without much oversight.

 

17 hours ago, greg775 said:

Hey, go back two months. We as a society were NEVER allowed to question others' mental health just to make sure it was GOOD. Never forget how easily we human can be triggered; don't forget all the mental health drugs we are on. I need to get out to go to the park and get drive through coffee or I'd go insane. You can't think about others' mental health year after year after year and stop just cause there is a virus. Everybody's feelings must be considered.

Go outside for walks and do what you need to do, Starbucks might not be open though. Make your own coffee for a change?

Edited April 28, 2020 by The Beast

[Ducksnort]

1 hour ago, StrangeSox said:

They're not overwhelmed because we're locked down and reducing retransmission rates

There's a difference between not being overwhelemed and being completely underwhelemed and forced to refuse people who need treatments to the point where there is not enough work and revenue that you can't keep your hospital staff. That is a very real issue that needs to get figured out fast.

[ron883]

59 minutes ago, bmags said:

I buzzed my head. You’d have your barber one foot away from your face breathing at you, and they’d have had multiple people breathing at them. 
 

That’s pretty risky.

I hear greg has a head of hair that rivals Brad Pitt's. You can't put a price on keeping that head of hair properly maintained. It's worth the risk. 

[Ducksnort]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

If that were true, the % of tests that are positive should be dropping, but they aren't.   We also lag a good chunk of first world countries in terms of testing saturation.  There was also the WaPo article today that seems to clearly show that deaths from covid are also much higher than what is being reported.

Yeah I really don't understand it. Some reputable and legitimate reporting is saying that deaths are falsely being recorded as due to covid, and some are saying the death is  much higher like you say. 

And again I think, as far as reopening states, we really need to take a look at this regionally. In Michigan, for example, I just listened to our governor and her team's press conference. We've ramped up testing a lot and we are finding that the % of tests that are positive are in fact dropping. Is that due to social distancing and stay at home order? Yeah, most likely. But again what happens when we reopen completely? Will this thing start spreading like wildfire again? We can't stay home until we have a vaccine. It would take too long.

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, ScooterMcGee said:

Yeah I really don't understand it. Some reputable and legitimate reporting is saying that deaths are falsely being recorded as due to covid, and some are saying the death is  much higher like you say. 

And again I think, as far as reopening states, we really need to take a look at this regionally. In Michigan, for example, I just listened to our governor and her team's press conference. We've ramped up testing a lot and we are finding that the % of tests that are positive are in fact dropping. Is that due to social distancing and stay at home order? Yeah, most likely. But again what happens when we reopen completely? Will this thing start spreading like wildfire again? We can't stay home until we have a vaccine. It would take too long.

This is why you need to get your # of new cases down low and number of tests/tracing high. It's the only shot. If your state isn't doing that, then yes, it will start spreading like wildfire.

PS: it is insanity that there are no national guidelines or leadership for this, since roads, you know, cross state lines. 

[caulfield12]

US intelligence briefing books (President’s Daily Brief) had over a dozen Coronavirus warnings in January and February...Trump has never read a single one, he gets them read to him roughly once a week, but God knows if he actually pays attention compared to Fox News.  
 

And something that makes absolutely no sense is blaming China while simultaneously extolling Xi Jinping and his personal relationship with him.

The reason for the coverups/secrecy and “fear factor” for local and provincial officials here in Wuhan/Hubei in their attempt to obscure the true scope of the problem as long as possible has everything to do with the cult of personality here that has seen President Xi lift himself up to the highest stature (core leader) of any Chinese official dating back to Mao Zedong’s death in 1976.

The two are inseparable.

 

And “China hardly targeted American farmers“...they simply became the victim of the trade war/tariffs. There was no choice at that point but to turn to other sources for soybeans, primarily Brazil.  We’ve (the US) spent tens of billions to subsidize those farmers and still are far from returning to their 2015-16 levels.  With a world economic crisis brewing, it might take a generation.  Almost every small business here in Wuhan has been wiped out, with the vast majority of financial support going to massive, state operated enterprises (exactly like the US government response.)

Edited April 27, 2020 by caulfield12