COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[StrangeSox]

In awe of this

 

 

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

1968 virus: killed close to 100k in the US... over a period from Fall of 1968 to Spring of 1970, approximately 18 months. COVID has done that in 3 months. Six times the gross death rate.

1957 virus: Similar numbers, but over 3 years (with a middle lag year that was smaller) - again, COVID many, many times more deadly and more transmissable. Also worth noting on this one, a vaccine was ready by the time it started hitting the US hard, because it was a flu variant (COVID is not).

So two keys here. One, COVID is far more contagious and is killing people far more quickly. Which makes early countermeasures key to success. Second, those things happened 50-60 years ago - and we are now in a place with much more advanced medicine and science. Just wanted to point these things out for important context.

 

 

(Blake) Snell is weighing whether risking his health and possibly being quarantined from friends and family is worth what, for a quality ballplayer, will be a small portion of his career earnings.

For those of us who will never make $1.6 million in a year, his mind-set might be difficult to appreciate. But here’s a portion of his quote that did not receive enough attention:

“If I get the ’Rona, guess what happens with that? Oh, yeah, that stays — that’s in my body forever,” he said.

Athletes might be better equipped than the average citizen to survive COVID-19, but even if they survive, their lungs can be damaged for life.

They can also wind up quarantined in a hospital for weeks, anesthetized, with a large tube running down their throat.

Know of any owners willing to take a risk like that for $1.6 million?

https://www.startribune.com/souhan-public-should-side-with-rich-not-wealthy-in-mlb-pay-debate/570548292/?ref=nl&om_rid=48311239113&om_mid=784051657

[michelangelosmonkey]

3 minutes ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

1968 virus: killed close to 100k in the US... over a period from Fall of 1968 to Spring of 1970, approximately 18 months. COVID has done that in 3 months. Six times the gross death rate.

1957 virus: Similar numbers, but over 3 years (with a middle lag year that was smaller) - again, COVID many, many times more deadly and more transmissable. Also worth noting on this one, a vaccine was ready by the time it started hitting the US hard, because it was a flu variant (COVID is not).

So two keys here. One, COVID is far more contagious and is killing people far more quickly. Which makes early countermeasures key to success. Second, those things happened 50-60 years ago - and we are now in a place with much more advanced medicine and science. Just wanted to point these things out for important context.

 

US population in 1957 was 1/3 of what it is today....and we were MUCH less mobile.  A person in Springfield, Ill in 1957 was unlikely to go to NYC much less Milan or Wuhan.   We were also much more rural.  I think the 1957 virus is going to be very similar to that one...maybe a bit worse.  But we won't know for a while and certainty is a casualty of chaos.  

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Hydroxycholoquine has been used for a hundred years on patients.  It's side effects are well known, it's cheap and easily produced. It would have been great if it was helpful and maybe it is...but it needs to be tested together with Zinc and Arythromyacine and there are still promising results.  And really...you don't believe the President says..."ok...stop all fronts...we are going to only devote our time and energy to Hyrdo..."?   This thing is coming at us from a hundred directions and we are pushing back in a hundred ways...and to say...Look...he recommended that and it didn't work...he's an idiot....just makes you a partisan with perfect hindsight.  

There is no country like the US...we have the #1 economy in the world so we have more business travelers coming here from overseas than anywhere else, we are top tourist destination, we are #1 destination for international students our citizens are rich and mobile and travel frequently all over the world.   We have unfettered domestic travel...with hundreds of possible destinations for overseas people to come visit...we have massive urban and rural places.  We are the oddest country in the world.  To think that US wouldn't be the hardest hit is a misunderstanding of what America is.   

Doing worse than Iran and China?  There are no way those are true numbers. Doing worse than India...that is SO weird.  Why is California been so lightly hit versus NYC?   So many weird things about what is going on with the Virus...making this a political screed is not one of them.  

 

  

Because we let European travelers into JFK and Newark....mostly from Italy and Spain...for an appreciably longer period of time after cutting off China.    You can be sure the official lab testing on the various strains in NYC/NJ done somewhere down the line will officially back up the heretofore anecdotal evidence.

 

 

[southsider2k5]

49 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

His son this past weekend seemed to think it's a hoax to keep his dad from holding rallies.

 

Eric Trump on his dad being unable to hold rallies b/c of a pandemic that has killed nearly 90k Americans: "After Nov. 3, coronavirus will magically all of the sudden go away & disappear & everybody will be able to reopen. [Dems] are trying to deprive him of his greatest asset."

This is so incredibly stupid.  How is it that the Democrats are quite literally able to shutdown the entire world with some kind of a deep fake?  I mean how are Russia, China, England, India, Italy, Germany, etc all shutting down their entire economies and faking thousands of hospitalizations and deaths (hundreds of thousands world-wide) creating huge economic problems in every single country in the world right now, all to apparently play along with some hoax to win an election in the United States for a party that many countries don't want to see in power.  Vlad Putin has endorsed Trump twice now, but apparently he is faking it well enough to shutdown the Russian economy and declare the 4th most cases in the world right now.  That is some impressive acting.

So let's assume this is all valid, and just a Democraticly run hoax.  Let me just ask this, if the Democrats hold this kind of world wide level of power, why the fuck do they need to pull of a Wile E Coyote complex of a stunt to win an elected office?  How dumb do you have to be to believe all of these things at once?

[michelangelosmonkey]

8 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-52703265
Here’s how Australia crafted a bipartisan, non political response.  

Mike DeWine, Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan are three of the most popular (Republican) governors in the US right now.  All of them had strict lockdowns.   The three least popular responses are Florida, Georgia and now Texas.   Each of them opened up more quickly.

Honestly Australia is not like America, it's 8% of the population of US...it is 91% White....three cities have 50% of the population...equivalent to NYC, LA and Chicago each having 50+ million people.  It is not a business, tourist or education hub.    

[southsider2k5]

16 minutes ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

1968 virus: killed close to 100k in the US... over a period from Fall of 1968 to Spring of 1970, approximately 18 months. COVID has done that in 3 months. Six times the gross death rate.

1957 virus: Similar numbers, but over 3 years (with a middle lag year that was smaller) - again, COVID many, many times more deadly and more transmissable. Also worth noting on this one, a vaccine was ready by the time it started hitting the US hard, because it was a flu variant (COVID is not).

So two keys here. One, COVID is far more contagious and is killing people far more quickly. Which makes early countermeasures key to success. Second, those things happened 50-60 years ago - and we are now in a place with much more advanced medicine and science. Just wanted to point these things out for important context.

 

And all of these happened WITHOUT a shutdown.  Keep that in mind.

[michelangelosmonkey]

5 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Because we let European travelers into JFK and Newark....mostly from Italy and Spain...for an appreciably longer period of time after cutting off China.    You can be sure the official lab testing on the various strains in NYC/NJ done somewhere down the line will officially back up the heretofore anecdotal evidence.

 

 

I think that is already been proven about NYC virus coming from two spots.  But California is the main entrepot for people coming from China.  I think we may find out that it has been circulating in California for six weeks before anyone else.  If someone died of flu like symptoms in California mid-December to mid-January no one would even have thought to look if it was Coronavirus.  And again...the president did cut off travel from Europe pretty quickly.   With perfect hindsight we know that it should have been sooner...but honestly condemning a leader for lacking hindsight on something that has never happened before?   I can't recall the US ever quarantining other countries.   

[bmags]

Even if you accepted that no other country is comparable to America, and that no other outbreak was comparable to this, the idea that you can't criticize the president of the united states for not doing a good enough job at something novel and new is not compelling.

The federal gov't is good at scaling up and mobilizing production that makes coordinating nationally a lot easier than by state. The US approach has been incredibly water-fall like.

It first had to build out medical capacity and protective gear

then it built out testing

then it is now building out tracing

and just now has the tsa starting to do prevention with temperature checks an forcing mask wearing.

This stuff was happening all at once in other countries that have been more successful. Alaska has had a comprehensive tracing system due to TB to its advantage and has done exceedingly well. NOLA had good amounts of testing early on and bent its curve earlier.

But state by state they were competing with other countries purchases and slowing everything down. 

For the last century the US public health infrastructure has been so good at not just preventing things in the US, but assisting at preventing outbreaks from occurring.

Now the US response was at best average compared to other countries instead of world-leading.

You could ask why that is, or you could say that you are being mean. 

Or worse - that some unelected people with much less information at their disposal than the president of the united states didn't know exactly what to do in february so therefore nobody is allowed to say that the president misstepped.

[almagest]

Some good news:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/no-spike-in-coronavirus-in-places-reopening-us-health-secretary-says-idUSKBN22T0HN

We'll see if it holds.

Edited May 18, 2020 by almagest

[almagest]

1 hour ago, StrangeSox said:

In awe of this

 

 

Google still shows a downward trend. I don't think this is that big of a deal. Stupid, yes.

https://www.google.com/search?q=covid+stats+georgia&oq=cov&aqs=chrome.3.69i59l4j69i57j69i61l3.4968j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

[Dick Allen]

5 minutes ago, almagest said:

Google still shows a downward trend. I don't think this is that big of a deal. Stupid, yes.

https://www.google.com/search?q=covid+stats+georgia&oq=cov&aqs=chrome.3.69i59l4j69i57j69i61l3.4968j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

I'm glad their trend is down and hopefully it stays that way, but trying to deceive the public during a public health crisis is a pretty big deal.

[StrangeSox]

Looks kinda flat to me?

It's not that a single chart is that big of a deal, it's more that there's no way that manipulation wasn't intentional, and that it's just so over-the-top that it's comical.

[almagest]

1 minute ago, StrangeSox said:

Looks kinda flat to me?

It's not that a single chart is that big of a deal, it's more that there's no way that manipulation wasn't intentional, and that it's just so over-the-top that it's comical.

There's a definite trend where spikes are lower and shorter, and yesterday was the lowest number of cases since May 2nd. We'll see if today continues that trend but they seem to have turned a corner.

 

And yes this whole thing is pretty damn stupid, because it's not like their actual results show any huge spike or anything. It's like they thought they weren't winning enough. Completely baffling.

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I think that is already been proven about NYC virus coming from two spots.  But California is the main entrepot for people coming from China.  I think we may find out that it has been circulating in California for six weeks before anyone else.  If someone died of flu like symptoms in California mid-December to mid-January no one would even have thought to look if it was Coronavirus.  And again...the president did cut off travel from Europe pretty quickly.   With perfect hindsight we know that it should have been sooner...but honestly condemning a leader for lacking hindsight on something that has never happened before?   I can't recall the US ever quarantining other countries.   

Travel from Europe was cut off in mid march.  It was over by then, as the Italian strain had been circulating in NYC and the East Coast for weeks at that point.

[Quin]

Last week Trump said testing is overrated and that our numbers are only high because of testing.

"If we didn’t do any testing, we would have very few cases.”

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-says-coronavirus-testing-overratedclaims-fewer-cases-if-no-testing-2020-05-14

[Dick Allen]

1 minute ago, Quin said:

Last week Trump said testing is overrated and that our numbers are only high because of testing.

"If we didn’t do any testing, we would have very few cases.”

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-says-coronavirus-testing-overratedclaims-fewer-cases-if-no-testing-2020-05-14

That is why I posted earlier, we can cure cancer by ending all biopsy’s.

[Quin]

4 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

That is why I posted earlier, we can cure cancer by ending all biopsy’s.

If you don't call the fire department, the number of burning buildings plummets.

[michelangelosmonkey]

3 hours ago, bmags said:

Even if you accepted that no other country is comparable to America, and that no other outbreak was comparable to this, the idea that you can't criticize the president of the united states for not doing a good enough job at something novel and new is not compelling.

The federal gov't is good at scaling up and mobilizing production that makes coordinating nationally a lot easier than by state. The US approach has been incredibly water-fall like.

It first had to build out medical capacity and protective gear

then it built out testing

then it is now building out tracing

and just now has the tsa starting to do prevention with temperature checks an forcing mask wearing.

This stuff was happening all at once in other countries that have been more successful. Alaska has had a comprehensive tracing system due to TB to its advantage and has done exceedingly well. NOLA had good amounts of testing early on and bent its curve earlier.

But state by state they were competing with other countries purchases and slowing everything down. 

For the last century the US public health infrastructure has been so good at not just preventing things in the US, but assisting at preventing outbreaks from occurring.

Now the US response was at best average compared to other countries instead of world-leading.

You could ask why that is, or you could say that you are being mean. 

Or worse - that some unelected people with much less information at their disposal than the president of the united states didn't know exactly what to do in february so therefore nobody is allowed to say that the president misstepped.

Of course the president made missteps.  I guess on a sports talk site where "I can't believe he threw the curve ball with runners on second and third and a pitch to waste" is de rigueur.   I also think when the loudest and most energetic voices that come here are Democrats, non-stop criticism about the president crowds out other voices.   Still this section was supposed to be about the virus and as I said...it started off interesting but the streams of hurled accusations followed by "I can't believe HE made this political" is "not compelling".  

As for the government scaling things up...again perfect hindsight.  The government should have just taken the government factories and started producing testing immediately.  In fact it's amazing that we didn't have an enormous stock pile of tests for this never-before-seen virus in government warehouses someplace.  And imagine our incompetence that 60 days after this never-before-seen virus started invading our country that we were not 100% prepared.  

If you start with the end point..."The President is an idiot" then you fill in the evidence to make it work and throw out evidence that doesn't fit the narrative and then shout it from the rooftops and have it echoed by people that think exactly as you do it may seem as if you have the truth.  It just doesn't seem convincing to me.  I think the president is an egomaniac and I hate his NYC aggressive style...it offends my Midwest sensibilities.  I thought President Obama was one of the most decent men to ever be president...but to say he would have done better is farcical.   President Trump is not trying to kill off his voters.  He and his advisors are trying to make heroes of themselves...which is exactly what I want my leader to do in a crisis.    

[Dick Allen]

11 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Of course the president made missteps.  I guess on a sports talk site where "I can't believe he threw the curve ball with runners on second and third and a pitch to waste" is de rigueur.   I also think when the loudest and most energetic voices that come here are Democrats, non-stop criticism about the president crowds out other voices.   Still this section was supposed to be about the virus and as I said...it started off interesting but the streams of hurled accusations followed by "I can't believe HE made this political" is "not compelling".  

As for the government scaling things up...again perfect hindsight.  The government should have just taken the government factories and started producing testing immediately.  In fact it's amazing that we didn't have an enormous stock pile of tests for this never-before-seen virus in government warehouses someplace.  And imagine our incompetence that 60 days after this never-before-seen virus started invading our country that we were not 100% prepared.  

If you start with the end point..."The President is an idiot" then you fill in the evidence to make it work and throw out evidence that doesn't fit the narrative and then shout it from the rooftops and have it echoed by people that think exactly as you do it may seem as if you have the truth.  It just doesn't seem convincing to me.  I think the president is an egomaniac and I hate his NYC aggressive style...it offends my Midwest sensibilities.  I thought President Obama was one of the most decent men to ever be president...but to say he would have done better is farcical.   President Trump is not trying to kill off his voters.  He and his advisors are trying to make heroes of themselves...which is exactly what I want my leader to do in a crisis.    

By ignoring science?  

[southsider2k5]

Just now, Dick Allen said:

By ignoring science?  

by attempting to buy cures and treatments, while even Communist China offers to give it away for free.

[bmags]

2 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Of course the president made missteps.  I guess on a sports talk site where "I can't believe he threw the curve ball with runners on second and third and a pitch to waste" is de rigueur.   I also think when the loudest and most energetic voices that come here are Democrats, non-stop criticism about the president crowds out other voices.   Still this section was supposed to be about the virus and as I said...it started off interesting but the streams of hurled accusations followed by "I can't believe HE made this political" is "not compelling".  

As for the government scaling things up...again perfect hindsight.  The government should have just taken the government factories and started producing testing immediately.  In fact it's amazing that we didn't have an enormous stock pile of tests for this never-before-seen virus in government warehouses someplace.  And imagine our incompetence that 60 days after this never-before-seen virus started invading our country that we were not 100% prepared.  

If you start with the end point..."The President is an idiot" then you fill in the evidence to make it work and throw out evidence that doesn't fit the narrative and then shout it from the rooftops and have it echoed by people that think exactly as you do it may seem as if you have the truth.  It just doesn't seem convincing to me.  I think the president is an egomaniac and I hate his NYC aggressive style...it offends my Midwest sensibilities.  I thought President Obama was one of the most decent men to ever be president...but to say he would have done better is farcical.   President Trump is not trying to kill off his voters.  He and his advisors are trying to make heroes of themselves...which is exactly what I want my leader to do in a crisis.    

Calling for the government to scale things up is the opposite of perfect hindsight. Your incredulousness that the US should "take government factories" and "start producing testing immediately" is funny since that is quite literally what they are supposed to do! Despite it being a new virus it is exactly what many other smaller and less equipped governments were capable of doing.

 

 

[StrangeSox]

You keep saying "hindsight," but a lot of other countries took different paths, paths that the experts were recommending at the time. The current administration decided to fire their pandemic teams and ignore the prep work done by previous administrations. They decided to downplay it as much as possible early on rather than ramping up production of PPE or testing or medical equipment. They are aggressively pushing the "reopen now" message when actual experts are absolutely not recommending that.

It's not hindsight. The criticism is happening in real time, with predictions of what the current actions will result in. Our first case was in late January, and we did basically nothing to prepare. We're still wasting a lot of time that the lockdown measures, which can't go on forever, have bought us.

[michelangelosmonkey]

2 hours ago, Tony said:

So two things here. I know you want to hold water for Trump, but....

1. He spent January and February ignoring reports and warnings about how serious things could get

2. Trump seemed to have no problem condemning previous leaders about "Broken Tests" and "Lack of PPE" 

Sorry, I'm not buying the "How can you blame the administration for this?" position....not only is it not true, but clearly Trump feels like there is plenty of blame to go around....and SURPRISE! He doesn't think he deserves any. 

 

If your argument is...President Trump is an asshole. I'm fine with supporting that.  Go start a discussion page with that as a title and let free the vitriol.  But the rest is utter nonsense.  China announced the Virus on December 31st...and by the 3rd of January we were offering experts to Wuhan to help combat it.  By January 6th the CDC issued a travel advisory against going to Wuhan.  By the 11th they issued a level 1 health advisory against going to Wuhan.   By the 20th the NIH began working on a vaccine.  Also on the 20th the FIRST American came down with it...an American that had come from Wuhan.   The administration declared the Corona virus a national health emergency on January 31st...and started travel restrictions...at that point there were SIX cases in the US.   I guess it was when we hit the 7th case that we should have shut down the country???   Study what is happen...the virus is very interesting...but please leave the idiotic hindsight someplace else.

[StrangeSox]