COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[StrangeSox]

The mortality rate for COVID in that range is high, but it's not 100%. Just like some people live to 105 and smoke for 90 years and never get a spot of cancer.

The false positive rate for a lot of the antibody tests are really high, but the false positive rates for the active-infection PCR tests are really, really, really low.

Edited July 15, 2020 by StrangeSox

[StrangeSox]

Lake Zurich HS is already fighting an outbreak. 36 students who participated in summer training camp activities have tested positive. They believe the exposures for many if not most occurred prior to the camps, but that these kids participated and may have spread it to other students.

https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200714/36-lake-zurich-high-students-test-positive-for-covid-19

This is 36 cases in one high school before classes even start and we cram hundreds into indoor spaces for hours on end. Hong Kong shut down again over 45 or so cases across the entire city of 7.4M.

Now imagine these cases were discovered Day 1 of in-person classes at Lake Zurich HS. How many hundreds of staff and students would now need to go get tested and then isolate until they got their test results back? What's the plan to cover for all the quarantined staff?

Now multiply that out to every school in the state and ask yourself "how are we going to substantially increase our testing capacity and shorten the lead time?" Quest and LabCorp, the two biggest testing labs in the country, are now saying results can take as long as 10 days. What do you think that lag will look like once we massively increase potential exposures all across the country as schools reopen?

Edited July 15, 2020 by StrangeSox

[Iwritecode]

7 hours ago, greg775 said:

When a crisis hit like Covid, they decided to be bold and unrelenting.

So when a crisis hit they decided to do their job and actually be leaders?

 

And comparing this to them "allowing" the protests to happen. I don't think they had much of a choice there. They attempted to control and contain them as much as they could but there was no way they were going to stop them from happening. It'd be like stopping an ocean wave from hitting the shore.

Edited July 15, 2020 by Iwritecode

[bmags]

28 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

Lake Zurich HS is already fighting an outbreak. 36 students who participated in summer training camp activities have tested positive. They believe the exposures for many if not most occurred prior to the camps, but that these kids participated and may have spread it to other students.

https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200714/36-lake-zurich-high-students-test-positive-for-covid-19

This is 36 cases in one high school before classes even start and we cram hundreds into indoor spaces for hours on end. Hong Kong shut down again over 45 or so cases across the entire city of 7.4M.

Now imagine these cases were discovered Day 1 of in-person classes at Lake Zurich HS. How many hundreds of staff and students would now need to go get tested and then isolate until they got their test results back? What's the plan to cover for all the quarantined staff?

Now multiply that out to every school in the state and ask yourself "how are we going to substantially increase our testing capacity and shorten the lead time?" Quest and LabCorp, the two biggest testing labs in the country, are now saying results can take as long as 10 days. What do you think that lag will look like once we massively increase potential exposures all across the country as schools reopen?

Hong Kong, others are able to act with confidence now. I have friends that live there, people will take the week or so lockdowns where they trace and test like crazy so that people can go back to living as normal. Their life is pretty much the same in between them. Ditto friends that live in Shanghai.

In US people won't go back to shutdowns because they never fixed it in the first time, so the in between shutdowns wasn't even back to normal. There's no promise of it getting better.

In June when testing turnarounds were a day, it was possible to see this working. But you are right that in a month they will not be able to have hit the scale of mass testing necessary if we are even at 25% lower totals in daily infections. It needed to be way more contained for this to work nationally, because the lab and ppe shortages affect everyone nationally.

It's almost like that was a job for the federal gov't.

[NWINFan]

33 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

Lake Zurich HS is already fighting an outbreak. 36 students who participated in summer training camp activities have tested positive. They believe the exposures for many if not most occurred prior to the camps, but that these kids participated and may have spread it to other students.

https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200714/36-lake-zurich-high-students-test-positive-for-covid-19

This is 36 cases in one high school before classes even start and we cram hundreds into indoor spaces for hours on end. Hong Kong shut down again over 45 or so cases across the entire city of 7.4M.

Now imagine these cases were discovered Day 1 of in-person classes at Lake Zurich HS. How many hundreds of staff and students would now need to go get tested and then isolate until they got their test results back? What's the plan to cover for all the quarantined staff?

Now multiply that out to every school in the state and ask yourself "how are we going to substantially increase our testing capacity and shorten the lead time?" Quest and LabCorp, the two biggest testing labs in the country, are now saying results can take as long as 10 days. What do you think that lag will look like once we massively increase potential exposures all across the country as schools reopen?

Seems to me that the Trump Administration has not considered an instance like this. Not surprising since they rarely think things all the way through. If I were a parent with a child school age, I wouldn't be happy with someone trying to dictate to me to send my child to school. 

[southsider2k5]

8 hours ago, greg775 said:

For some reason I expected a dialogue since I voted for them or against them at the polls at least. These government officials were holding daily news conferences for a while and in my opinion (that's all an opinion) they set the tone of defiance and them against us (not working with us) early. They still won't even address the subject of protests in the streets nightly versus having 20 people at a funeral. When a crisis hit like Covid, they decided to be bold and unrelenting. Their call; I think it was the wrong one when they've taken such a passive attitude toward violence of protestors. Americans aren't dumb; they get upset at bossy public officials and inconsistencies.

Don't freak out if you disagree with me please; life is short and maybe my brain works differently than yours. At least I'm honest about my feelings.

Let me stop you after the first line.  Did you ever have kids?  Do you remember your parents at all?  When  they/you were about to something that could endanger your life was their much of a dialogue?  "Well son, I know smoking crack feels good in the moment, but remember..."  Hell no.  This isn't a two way discussion.  There are about 140,000 people dead, and a segment of the population STILL doesn't believe this is real, yet you have hurt feelings about government officials being too tough?  GTFOH.  Then to try to falsely equate public health to public protests?  Thanks for trolling.

[southsider2k5]

3 minutes ago, NWINFan said:

Seems to me that the Trump Administration has not considered an instance like this. Not surprising since they rarely think things all the way through. If I were a parent with a child school age, I wouldn't be happy with someone trying to dictate to me to send my child to school. 

They considered it, they just don't care.  Your children and their teachers  are an acceptable sacrifice to restart the economy.  Devos flat out said that a death rate of 0.02 is cool with her because it isn't a big number.

[StrangeSox]

19 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

They considered it, they just don't care.  Your children and their teachers  are an acceptable sacrifice to restart the economy.  Devos flat out said that a death rate of 0.02 is cool with her because it isn't a big number.

My wife's union sent out a letter and a survey to every teacher last night after her district's plans were made public. They stated that they've told the district from day 1 that the measures that were ultimately put into place were completely unacceptable. We'll see what happens. Even my wife's principal has been sending emails for a couple of weeks very clearly stating that she's seriously uncomfortable with the plan and expects huge pushback. Her district's HR sent out an email to everyone just reminding them of the procedures and forms for telework request (limited availability and need a pre-existing condition) or also for long-term leaves of absence.

I modeled out our budget for the next 12 months. We can swing her taking a leave of absence without pay if we need to. Very seriously considering this. How many other staff are doing the same? Her building has half a dozen cancer survivors and at least a dozen teachers in their late 50's or older. That's one building in one district in suburban Chicago. There's already teacher shortages in Illinois.

 

 

 

Anyway today's the first day where all hospital data is being fed straight to a no-bid, private company's server at the White House rather than going to the CDC. So my guess is we'll soon have very low positive test results!

[Iwritecode]

 

So if the parents disagree with sending their kids back to school they should just... find new parents?

[StrangeSox]

lol, also infuriating 

[StrangeSox]

19 hours ago, StrangeSox said:

Seems likely that national data will be cooked, but we'll still get state level reports (which may also be cooked, e.g. Florida)

Thread on the more immediate impact of this (long-term impact is destroying the public's trust in the CDC for years to come)

 

 

[bmags]

Pestering people outside where there is plenty of space to distance yourself seems unnecessary. Save it for the indoors people.

[southsider2k5]

Just now, bmags said:

Pestering people outside where there is plenty of space to distance yourself seems unnecessary. Save it for the indoors people.

Yeah, we rarely wear anything outside, but we also haven't been in a crowd in months either.  We do things like walking and hiking, but away from people.  If we run across people in a tight space, then we mask up for that moment.

[bmags]

4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Yeah, we rarely wear anything outside, but we also haven't been in a crowd in months either.  We do things like walking and hiking, but away from people.  If we run across people in a tight space, then we mask up for that moment.

Have you heard any feedback on how packed the dunes has been? I went to starved rock for a Sunday night and while Monday was great, Sunday was pretty disappointing as it was hoards of people without masks. Even outside it was too close for comfort.

Dunes could be fun for my kids and seems like you wouldn't have chokepoints like a trail with stairs like that.

[StrangeSox]

13 minutes ago, bmags said:

Pestering people outside where there is plenty of space to distance yourself seems unnecessary. Save it for the indoors people.

it's a comedy video where they obviously cherry-picked the most ridiculous or funniest answers

31 minutes ago, Tony said:

Honestly, that's Orange County in a nutshell. 

yup lol

 

 

4 minutes ago, bmags said:

Have you heard any feedback on how packed the dunes has been? I went to starved rock for a Sunday night and while Monday was great, Sunday was pretty disappointing as it was hoards of people without masks. Even outside it was too close for comfort.

Dunes could be fun for my kids and seems like you wouldn't have chokepoints like a trail with stairs like that.

One of my friends went to the Indiana Dunes mid-week last week with her kids (middle school aged). It was relatively uncrowded on the beach. She's been taking this very seriously and felt perfectly safe there.

The trails there are pretty narrow depending on where you're at though.

Edited July 15, 2020 by StrangeSox

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

Have you heard any feedback on how packed the dunes has been? I went to starved rock for a Sunday night and while Monday was great, Sunday was pretty disappointing as it was hoards of people without masks. Even outside it was too close for comfort.

Dunes could be fun for my kids and seems like you wouldn't have chokepoints like a trail with stairs like that.

The weekends are NUTS out there.  It is a full no go.  The lines are literally over a mile long to get in the main Dunes state park.  Central beach is closed due to erosion, and Mt Baldy also gets crazy on weekends. 

Monday through Friday afternoon is great though.  I love it.  I can give you some trail recommendations even based on how much walking and hiking you want to do, and how tough you want it to be.  There are some other lesser known area of the National Park and trails that are kind of off of the beaten path that aren't even really busy on the weekends though, which is usually where we go.  The Bailley Homestead/Chellberg Farm area has a nice section of the Calumet Trail that is 3.5 to 4 miles in the woods with a bit of up and down, and most of it is EMPTY, even on a weekend.

[StrangeSox]

There have been some signs from Asian and European countries about lower danger from spread in schools, and there's some consideration that needs to be taken about how widespread the virus was when they opened schools vs. how it is here. But either way, Israel provides a counterpoint:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/israeli-data-show-school-openings-were-a-disaster-that-wiped-out-lockdown-gains

Quote

Of 1,400 Israelis diagnosed with COVID-19 last month, 657 (47 percent) were infected in schools. Now 2,026 students, teachers, and staff have it, and 28,147 are quarantined.

Israel's population is only a little bit larger than the Chicago metro, and they had 1,400 cases in a whole month. We're talking about reopening schools with hundreds of cases a day. What is our spread going to look like?

[bmags]

12 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The weekends are NUTS out there.  It is a full no go.  The lines are literally over a mile long to get in the main Dunes state park.  Central beach is closed due to erosion, and Mt Baldy also gets crazy on weekends. 

Monday through Friday afternoon is great though.  I love it.  I can give you some trail recommendations even based on how much walking and hiking you want to do, and how tough you want it to be.  There are some other lesser known area of the National Park and trails that are kind of off of the beaten path that aren't even really busy on the weekends though, which is usually where we go.  The Bailley Homestead/Chellberg Farm area has a nice section of the Calumet Trail that is 3.5 to 4 miles in the woods with a bit of up and down, and most of it is EMPTY, even on a weekend.

Awesome, I'll look to take a day soon and hit you up for recs. Will have the 3 year old likely on my shoulders 

[bmags]

10 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

There have been some signs from Asian and European countries about lower danger from spread in schools, and there's some consideration that needs to be taken about how widespread the virus was when they opened schools vs. how it is here. But either way, Israel provides a counterpoint:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/israeli-data-show-school-openings-were-a-disaster-that-wiped-out-lockdown-gains

Israel's population is only a little bit larger than the Chicago metro, and they had 1,400 cases in a whole month. We're talking about reopening schools with hundreds of cases a day. What is our spread going to look like?

Israel has been wild in every respect. It seemed to have contained it then it exploded again. Others see little issue in schools, theirs seems to be driven by schools. It's been bizarro.

 

[Balta1701]

7 minutes ago, bmags said:

Israel has been wild in every respect. It seemed to have contained it then it exploded again. Others see little issue in schools, theirs seems to be driven by schools. It's been bizarro.

 

That's telling you there's something about the climate in schools there or the equipment used (type of AC? Lack of ability to open windows? Lack of appropriate hygiene supplies?) that has upped the likelihood of transmission substantially. 

[StrangeSox]

10 minutes ago, bmags said:

Israel has been wild in every respect. It seemed to have contained it then it exploded again. Others see little issue in schools, theirs seems to be driven by schools. It's been bizarro.

 

Is Israel handling it this badly in schools?

Other school districts across the country have popped up with similar liability waivers and absurd 1-3 day quarantines for staff with symptoms or even PCR positive test results.

We're going to intentionally and knowingly infect, harm and kill a whole lotta people.

 

e: in states like Tennessee, Texas and many others, any striking teacher can be immediately fired. 

Edited July 15, 2020 by StrangeSox

[Kyyle23]

1 hour ago, StrangeSox said:

lol, also infuriating 

I love these guys bill and Ted vibe lmao

[Brian]

21 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

I love these guys bill and Ted vibe lmao

I love how they are so polite but people just go 0-60 right away on them. So much rage. Sad bro

[he gone.]

31 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

I love these guys bill and Ted vibe lmao

Thats good stuff. And imagine thinking you can solve this mask thing. It's literally unsolvable no matter how much people believe its not. Short all religions saying their God told them to wear a mask, Trump doing a 180, and some luck, its not happening. It's not even about science, its about defiance. 

[Kyyle23]

1 minute ago, BrianAnderson said:

Thats good stuff. And imagine thinking you can solve this mask thing. It's literally unsolvable no matter how much people believe its not. Short all religions saying their God told them to wear a mask, Trump doing a 180, and some luck, its not happening. It's not even about science, its about defiance. 

And now we are getting to the part where defiance is leading directly to infection, and then death.