COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[bmags]

.6% of IL population vaccinated in a day yesterday. Starting to really cook

[StrangeSox]

Kendall County is doing big vaccine clinics for 1a and 1b this weekend, so maybe that's a sign we're done taking weekends off.

[bmags]

23 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

Kendall County is doing big vaccine clinics for 1a and 1b this weekend, so maybe that's a sign we're done taking weekends off.

I think that was partly resolved last weekend it just got crushed because of the snow storm. Saturday was pretty good. 

[Heads22]

State of Iowa removed all mask mandates and capacity restrictions in time for the Super Bowl.

 

Kim Reynolds sucks.

[Ducksnort]

11 hours ago, Heads22 said:

State of Iowa removed all mask mandates and capacity restrictions in time for the Super Bowl.

 

Kim Reynolds sucks.

Yes but only like 3 people actually live in the state of Iowa.

[Balta1701]

 

[bmags]

50k yesterday. I believe will be not great today

[pcq]

Astra Zeneca not effective in SA against mutant virus strain. Might need new vaccines before long. 

Edited February 8, 2021 by pcq

[StrangeSox]

25% efficacy against mild/moderate COVID, no data on hospitalizations or deaths yet. Certainly not great. AZ/Oxford has already said they're working on modifications but that they won't be ready until the fall. At least the J&J and Novavax trials showed better efficacy with more data.

 

We're already seeing community spread of the SA variant in the US.

[hogan873]

There is a lot of differing opinions out there regarding the vaccines and now quickly we can get to herd immunity.  The latest I read hinted that we're going to end up with a surplus of vaccines due to supply outpacing demand.  Most polling says that slightly more than 50% of the 16+ population is eager for the vaccine.  Then there's a smaller percentage of "maybes" and another chuck of the population that believes the government is injecting us with spyware or whatever.

The concern is that we'll get most of the eager folks vaccinated pretty quickly, say by April/May.  Hopefully a lot of those on the fence will see that it works and opt to get the vaccine.  Only then will we reach the herd immunity magic number of 75% or so.

What happens when we get to 65% to 70% of the population vaccinated with the rest refusing?  Can we truly allow this small percentage of the population to limit when we can start getting back to normal?  Can we delay allowing fans into sporting events and concerts because of the minority.  I see this being a potential problem soon.

You'd hate to say to those COVID anti-vaxxers, "You're on your own...sorry."  But where do we draw the line?  Does requiring proof of the vaccine for admittance to sporting events make sense at that point?

[StrangeSox]

Everyone who has already been vaccinated or will be vaccinated over the next couple of months is going to need a booster shot to bump up efficacy against the SA and any other immunity-evading variants we cook up globally over the next year or so.

[bmags]

21 minutes ago, hogan873 said:

There is a lot of differing opinions out there regarding the vaccines and now quickly we can get to herd immunity.  The latest I read hinted that we're going to end up with a surplus of vaccines due to supply outpacing demand.  Most polling says that slightly more than 50% of the 16+ population is eager for the vaccine.  Then there's a smaller percentage of "maybes" and another chuck of the population that believes the government is injecting us with spyware or whatever.

The concern is that we'll get most of the eager folks vaccinated pretty quickly, say by April/May.  Hopefully a lot of those on the fence will see that it works and opt to get the vaccine.  Only then will we reach the herd immunity magic number of 75% or so.

What happens when we get to 65% to 70% of the population vaccinated with the rest refusing?  Can we truly allow this small percentage of the population to limit when we can start getting back to normal?  Can we delay allowing fans into sporting events and concerts because of the minority.  I see this being a potential problem soon.

You'd hate to say to those COVID anti-vaxxers, "You're on your own...sorry."  But where do we draw the line?  Does requiring proof of the vaccine for admittance to sporting events make sense at that point?

I think it's one problem at a time for now. But one thing I would do is give businesses/school systems cover to mandate vaccinations and remove their legal exposure. That is clearly a concern for many businesses now who have in-person personnel. At the point you have 70% of population with the vaccine with the small % of side effects we've seen just make it work.

[hogan873]

13 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

Everyone who has already been vaccinated or will be vaccinated over the next couple of months is going to need a booster shot to bump up efficacy against the SA and any other immunity-evading variants we cook up globally over the next year or so.

I imagine regular boosters will be necessary even after getting through this year.  Many are saying COVID will likely be endemic.

[bmags]

The good news is the infrastructure is being built up for mass vaccinations with mRNA and others currently, so boosters should not be the logjam we have now.

[caulfield12]

30 minutes ago, hogan873 said:

There is a lot of differing opinions out there regarding the vaccines and now quickly we can get to herd immunity.  The latest I read hinted that we're going to end up with a surplus of vaccines due to supply outpacing demand.  Most polling says that slightly more than 50% of the 16+ population is eager for the vaccine.  Then there's a smaller percentage of "maybes" and another chuck of the population that believes the government is injecting us with spyware or whatever.

The concern is that we'll get most of the eager folks vaccinated pretty quickly, say by April/May.  Hopefully a lot of those on the fence will see that it works and opt to get the vaccine.  Only then will we reach the herd immunity magic number of 75% or so.

What happens when we get to 65% to 70% of the population vaccinated with the rest refusing?  Can we truly allow this small percentage of the population to limit when we can start getting back to normal?  Can we delay allowing fans into sporting events and concerts because of the minority.  I see this being a potential problem soon.

You'd hate to say to those COVID anti-vaxxers, "You're on your own...sorry."  But where do we draw the line?  Does requiring proof of the vaccine for admittance to sporting events make sense at that point?

Now at 67%, highest recorded polling number yet.

Edited February 8, 2021 by caulfield12

[hogan873]

1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

Now at 67%, highest recorded polling number yet.

That's good news.

[bmags]

The freakiest news I've heard yet is out of Taiwan where they are seeing a lot more cases where they were much later into quarantine (+14 days) than previous. Asia countries have mostly been slower to vaccinate and the sinovac vaccine has been one of the poorer performing ones, but the US already had such issues with a 14 day quarantine that we moved it down to 10 just to improve compliance. HK does 21 days.

This virus is such a pain. Can you imagine getting it on day 17 after exposure and possibly being contagious for days prior? Just nuts how well this thing spreads.

[StrangeSox]

Something like 25% of cases are still infectious at 14 days.

[Balta1701]

2 hours ago, hogan873 said:

I imagine regular boosters will be necessary even after getting through this year.  Many are saying COVID will likely be endemic.

If it becomes endemic, but we can make it such that it isn't severe because your body has been trained against variants of it, that's at least survivable. 

[bmags]

1 hour ago, StrangeSox said:

Something like 25% of cases are still infectious at 14 days.

It's not "still being sick", it's starting your illness after 14 days:

https://twitter.com/MWStory/status/1358774443938508802?s=20

 

[The Beast]

7 hours ago, hogan873 said:

There is a lot of differing opinions out there regarding the vaccines and now quickly we can get to herd immunity.  The latest I read hinted that we're going to end up with a surplus of vaccines due to supply outpacing demand.  Most polling says that slightly more than 50% of the 16+ population is eager for the vaccine.  Then there's a smaller percentage of "maybes" and another chuck of the population that believes the government is injecting us with spyware or whatever.

The concern is that we'll get most of the eager folks vaccinated pretty quickly, say by April/May.  Hopefully a lot of those on the fence will see that it works and opt to get the vaccine.  Only then will we reach the herd immunity magic number of 75% or so.

What happens when we get to 65% to 70% of the population vaccinated with the rest refusing?  Can we truly allow this small percentage of the population to limit when we can start getting back to normal?  Can we delay allowing fans into sporting events and concerts because of the minority.  I see this being a potential problem soon.

You'd hate to say to those COVID anti-vaxxers, "You're on your own...sorry."  But where do we draw the line?  Does requiring proof of the vaccine for admittance to sporting events make sense at that point?

Yes. Create an app that links to the data the CDC gets for vaccination and require vaccinations to enter the game. Or use the COVID dogs to help screen. If people cry about their civil liberties then shouldn’t businesses say, well we want to create a safe experience for our fans...and limit the liability that we face if there is an outbreak and further lawsuits?

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, The Beast said:

Yes. Create an app that links to the data the CDC gets for vaccination and require vaccinations to enter the game. Or use the COVID dogs to help screen. If people cry about their civil liberties then shouldn’t businesses say, well we want to create a safe experience for our fans...and limit the liability that we face if there is an outbreak and further lawsuits?

The only way those not getting the vaccine could counterattack would be on the efficacy and safety of the vaccines.  But that’s a slippery slope, and even an effectiveness rate in the 60-75% range has utilitarian benefit to the country as a hole.   Of course, the biggest legal battle is going to be over school policies...and whether the “resistors” will be forced to home school or privately educate their kids.

(Of course, here in China, you’d end up in jail trying to resist or protest, despite the fact that there is mounting evidence of significant issues in the multiple traditional vaccines offered here.)

[The Beast]

26 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

The only way those not getting the vaccine could counterattack would be on the efficacy and safety of the vaccines.  But that’s a slippery slope, and even an effectiveness rate in the 60-75% range has utilitarian benefit to the country as a hole.   Of course, the biggest legal battle is going to be over school policies...and whether the “resistors” will be forced to home school or privately educate their kids.

(Of course, here in China, you’d end up in jail trying to resist or protest, despite the fact that there is mounting evidence of significant issues in the multiple traditional vaccines offered here.)

I’ll be curious when my son goes to public school in the next five years how many kids don’t get vaccinated and how difficult some parents can be about that.

[caulfield12]

12 minutes ago, The Beast said:

I’ll be curious when my son goes to public school in the next five years how many kids don’t get vaccinated and how difficult some parents can be about that.

For example, what about high contact sports such as football, wrestling and even basketball or soccer?

Will you need a vaccine shot to participate in those?

And then trying to get a universally agreed upon standard for both international and domestic travel...I can see a situation where I might be quarantined coming to the US with “only” the Chinese vaccine (of course, part of it’s politics and PR).  All of us (here) will eventually have to decide whether to accept being forced to take the Chinese vaccine, with resistance to that meaning we would lose our jobs and likely have to leave the country, or abandon wife/children.  I guess the majority will grit their teeth and bear it.

Or students from our school going to the UK for study...seems there are issues with AstraZeneca/Oxford as well.  God knows the solution, but a stamped Covid passport, CDC or WHO booklet of immunizations (easy to fake), who the heck is going to be trusted to control all that private, quite personal data?  How not to create another massive bureaucracy?  Especially with all the variants circulating, even one basic shot with booster is going to need constant updating depending on where in the world one is traveling to.

 

Edited February 9, 2021 by caulfield12

[Balta1701]

Newly-submitted paper on the B.1.1.7 variant:

Key points:

• Incidence of the variant is present in >30 states at present. Probably in others, just not enough sequencing done.
• Multiple introductions of the variant occurred as of November 2020.
• By the end of January, 4.2% of the tested samples were this variant, up by more than a factor of 4 over the month.
• Incidence of this variant is doubling approximately every 10 days, at the same time that cases of the earlier virus are dropping nationwide.
• At the current pace, this variant will take over as the dominant one circulating in the US by mid-March, and it will continue expanding rapidly unless additional control steps are taken.
• There is a large cluster already developing in Florida. California is also showing up as noteworthy, but not as much as Florida. Georgia starting to show up as well.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.06.21251159v1