COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[Dick Allen]

All I know is we were assured by this administration that the Coronavirus was contained. Shut down. Cases were going down to zero. A spokesman, now press secretary said this President wouldn’t allow the virus in this country. Then they were so unprepared now anything under 100,000 deaths will be celebrated. Could you imagine the tweets we would get from the current POTUS if he were still just a citizen and this same thing was happening with POTUS from either party in charge?

Edited April 12, 2020 by Dick Allen

[Balta1701]

2 hours ago, Chisoxfn said:

Death numbers are pretty legit. Case numbers are not. And balta...when I used the 1 in x and than shifted out I was purely making an example so anyone who read the post could understand what I am saying. 
 

No one believes mortality rates for this virus are 2-3 percent. Those are grossly inflated numbers. They also aren’t .1/.2 percent which is the flu. They lie somewhere in between and if I were to get, they are somewhere between .5 and 1 percent (in a controlled setting where you have ventilators and equipment).  
 

 

 

I think it’s 1-2% with a quality health care response. I think the freedom folks demanded in our heath care systen has made it uniquely bad compared to the rest of the western world, so our death numbers will be higher as a consequence. 
 

The undiagnosed cases make the percentage look higher at any given time, but the fact that the deaths come from people who are sick the longest, after some people have recovered, makes the death rate look lower at any given time. 
 

Until there is a valid treatment other than our lunatic leaders fraudulent study, you will see death rates of a couple percent.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Dick Allen said:

All I know is we were assured by this administration that the Coronavirus was contained. Shut down. Cases were going down to zero. A spokesman, now press secretary said this President wouldn’t allow the virus in this country. Then they were so unprepared now anything under 100,000 deaths will be celebrated. Could you imagine the tweets we would get from the current POTUS if he were still just a citizen and this same thing was happening with POTUS from either party in charge?

Look at the Haiti hurricane.

It was something of a recent tradition for presidents of the past to bring back former leaders, like Bush and Clinton in that situation.

Jimmy Carter, for example, is the president that almost every American can respect equally for all his worldwide humanitarian contributions since 1980.   But our president would prefer to ask Ivanka and Jared Kushner than those three or Obama.

Even if it’s not a president of the opposing party.  Of course, that leaves the Bush family, another open political wound. Or McCain and Romney, more grudges that are impossible to heal for the Republican Party itself until November 4th at the earliest.

We’re kind of stuck with the likes of Sanders, Biden and Trump (suspended animation)...waiting for that next generation of leaders to carry the torch.   It’s not inconceivable to imagine a future far right Trump wing, everyone in the middle (30-40%) and then what’s left of the progressive movement (AOC) splitting the country into three defined factions.   
 

And maybe I’m completely off...and the national dissatisfaction over this pandemic response will have the same practical effect of burying the Bush Era of compassionate conservatism mixed with the military industrial complex into another dustbin of history.  But that would be too easy.

Edited April 12, 2020 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/texas-governor-vows-issue-executive-185600728.html
And thus, it begins.  We can start tracking the anticipated uptick in Texas and compare rates to the rest of the states.  Next up, Florida.  Waiting for the excuse November 4th that he accidentally wiped out 10% of reliable voters over age 60. 
 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-neighbour-reports-commuting-nhs-worker-180537924.html
 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-response.html

Now it all makes sense.  The most authoritative account so far of what went wrong dots all the i’s and crosses all the t’s.   Makes the response to the Navarro warning all the more pathetic, because not only did he know about it, Trump was pissed it was so alarmist and had been put down on paper to create a trail.  
 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/12/politics/social-distancing-us-economy-covid-politics/index.html

A CNN poll last week showed most want to hold the line. Fully 80% fear the worst of the outbreak lies ahead; 60% express discomfort with resuming regular routines if current White House guidelines expire on April 30. 

Yet underlying those figures lies a sharp partisan divide. More than twice as many Republicans (53%) say they could comfortably resume their regular routines as Democrats (23%).

Republican impatience, amplified by conservative media outlets, creates a feedback loop inhibiting the consistent national response the White House coronavirus task force calls necessary to roll back the threat. GOP elected officials, business executives and religious figures eager for church services again cast coronavirus restrictions as unnecessarily "draconian," as Attorney General William Barr put it last week.

Edited April 12, 2020 by caulfield12

[NWINFan]

12 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

All I know is we were assured by this administration that the Coronavirus was contained. Shut down. Cases were going down to zero. A spokesman, now press secretary said this President wouldn’t allow the virus in this country. Then they were so unprepared now anything under 100,000 deaths will be celebrated. Could you imagine the tweets we would get from the current POTUS if he were still just a citizen and this same thing was happening with POTUS from either party in charge?

And this is why I can't stand the people saying it is okay to open the country. These people are completely out of touch. This pandemic effects every family in the country even if no family members have come down with the disease. We need to stop people trying to make money off of phony products and we need leadership to reassure people in a realistic way. This is no time for opportunism and outlandish political ranting. Glenn Beck, My god, there is something wrong with that man.

[tray]

15 hours ago, whitesoxfan99 said:

No one believes mortality rates for this virus are 2-3 percent. Those are grossly inflated numbers.

I wonder what the mortality rate will end up being  for Senior citizens (those over 65 yrs old) ?  

I get  the obvious - that the older you get, the less likely you are to survive something like this, but I was just wondering if I should head out for groceries.

 

[StrangeSox]

 

[Balta1701]

2 hours ago, tray said:

I wonder what the mortality rate will end up being  for Senior citizens (those over 65 yrs old) ?  

I get  the obvious - that the older you get, the less likely you are to survive something like this, but I was just wondering if I should head out for groceries.

 

Tens of percent. Probably less than 50.

If you're a senior citizen, consider trying a pickup order or delivery. If you're 100% healthy and want to go first thing in the morning you could probably get away with that as they're disinfecting most stores overnight, but seriously, you're over 65? Go online, go to their website, do an order for pickup.

[bmags]

Illinois new cases have definitely plateaued but not yet fallen. Fairly low death announcement today at 40.

[whitesoxfan99]

5 minutes ago, bmags said:

Illinois new cases have definitely plateaued but not yet fallen. Fairly low death announcement today at 40.

Sunday death total reports have been consistently lower across the country for whatever reason it seems like. 

[tray]

31 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Go online, go to their website, do an order for pickup.

OK, Thank you.

Edited April 12, 2020 by tray

[caulfield12]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
 

Hasn’t been updated for roughly six hours, fwiw...Easter?

Edited April 12, 2020 by caulfield12

[Balta1701]

So the fact that basically all of the Asian countries that seemed like they contained the first wave are now struggling with a second wave and multiple clusters is deeply concerning. 

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12324356

[Jack Parkman]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

So the fact that basically all of the Asian countries that seemed like they contained the first wave are now struggling with a second wave and multiple clusters is deeply concerning. 

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12324356

That article seems to claim that even social distancing isn't working there and it's breaking through that. That's.....not good. Especially here, where nutjobs want to re-open the economy. Maybe it's because their social distancing measures aren't stringent enough. 

Edited April 12, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

That article seems to claim that even social distancing isn't working there and it's breaking through that. That's.....not good. Especially here, where nutjobs want to re-open the economy. Maybe it's because their social distancing measures aren't stringent enough. 

Yup, my thoughts exactly. 

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

So the fact that basically all of the Asian countries that seemed like they contained the first wave are now struggling with a second wave and multiple clusters is deeply concerning. 

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12324356

The fun part is, this is probably going to time out so the second wave hits right about election day.  Dibs on Trump calling off the elections.

[Balta1701]

14 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The fun part is, this is probably going to time out so the second wave hits right about election day.  Dibs on Trump calling off the elections.

I disagree, for worse reasons. Data shows u guys in the Midwest shut down like bosses so great work with that (seriously), but I’m here in Trump country and between people not taking it seriously already and our state government following the “Americans want to work and sacrifice their grandparents!” Crap, there’s no way a second spike waits that long. It took 1-2 months after the first peak in these countries for the numbers to be going back up, and they’re enforcing policies with the military as of this week. We are so far from that here it’s not funny. The only way the second spike waits until October is if people maintain the lockdowns until July or August, and I can’t believe we are that responsible based on this state.

[caulfield12]

With Smithfield plant shutdown in South Dakota and the Iowa and PA closures, significant percentages of nation’s meat (at least pork) supply under threat now.

Here in Wuhan, people will be required to wear masks while out in public through at least June, if not into July.

That’s a span of roughly 8-9 total months of impact.  Lots of concern lingering about asymptomatic cases.  We’re still at at least two weeks away from the very first students (just high school seniors who have national exams rescheduled back into July) returning on the 27th-29th of April, with others in May (6th and 9th grade national exams in late June) and some elementaries and Kindergartens like my son’s out for the entire semester.  Which is one positive about starting school at age 3 here.

Edited April 12, 2020 by caulfield12

[Balta1701]

Just now, caulfield12 said:

With Smithfield plant shutdown in South Dakota and the Iowa and PA closures, significant percentages of nation’s meat (at least pork) supply under threat now.

Here in Wuhan, people will be required to wear masks while out in public, if not into July.

That’s a span of roughly 8-9 total months of impact.  Lots of concern lingering about asymptomatic cases.  We’re still at at least two weeks away from the very first students (just high school seniors who have national exams rescheduled back into July) returning on the 27th-29th of April, with others in May (6th and 9th grade national exams in late June) and some elementaries and Kindergartens like my son’s out for the entire semester.  Which is one positive about starting school at age 3 here.

Especially now that we are seeing second surges in the mask wearing countries, I think there’s not a lot of evidence that masks are making a big difference. 

[caulfield12]

13 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Especially now that we are seeing second surges in the mask wearing countries, I think there’s not a lot of evidence that masks are making a big difference. 

I don’t disagree, but it serves more of a psychological comforting purpose here.

It makes people feel or perceive that things are safe, I guess.  Like the placebo effect.

The thing is that because of SARs and pollution/construction work ongoing over a decade, like subways...it’s pretty ubiquitous.  Especially for Chinese women under 35-40.

 

Also watching Basehor Linwood Church in KS on CNN defy the order with over 50-100 attending multiple Easter services and not wearing masks despite state Supreme Court ruling and Governor’s ruling about no gatherings over 10.

I hope those people are all willing to rely on “faith healing” and not modern medicine when the time comes for being so stubborn. One would have thought enough people “learning lessons the hard way stories” could do the trick, but, no, of course not.

 

Finally, a story for those inclined to dislike China...this is one of the primary reasons I will be leaving in five years to go back to the US for good.  It’s not as bad here in Hubei, but it’s an uglier aspect of a homogeneous culture.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/10/china/africans-guangzhou-china-coronavirus-hnk-intl/index.html

Edited April 12, 2020 by caulfield12

[bmags]

15 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Especially now that we are seeing second surges in the mask wearing countries, I think there’s not a lot of evidence that masks are making a big difference. 

Do they need to make a “big” difference? 

[caulfield12]

https://www.quora.com/?digest_story=205392628&source=4
 

This is a report from a foreigner living in Kyoto on his perceptions for lower numbers there (under reporting and under-testing in order to preserve the Olympics and economy being the primary driver IMO.)

But it’s a worthwhile read if you are interested in reading how other countries deal with Covid-19 from a cultural standpoint (almost no hugging or physical contact, compared to US and southern Europe, being just one example.)

 

Ironically, Taiwan arguably has done the best, but has been blocked by the WHO from sharing that success with the rest of the world for political reasons.

 

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/african-nations-us-blacks-mistreated-115543155.html

African countries lambasting China over racism during Covid secondary outbreak, US State Dept. also issued a warning.

Even the Chinese authorities have admitted 90% of cases are being brought back to mainland and Hong Kong by permanent residents and intl. students, not “foreigners.”

Edited April 13, 2020 by caulfield12

[Dick Allen]

19 minutes ago, bmags said:

Do they need to make a “big” difference? 

Hopefully they make some difference, but it still stuns me how many people won’t  even put on a mask or some covering. I have 4 grocery stores near me, so if one is too crowded, I walk out. The Jewel by me now has a line to get in. But even while limiting the amount of people allowed in the store, I can’t believe they let people in without a mask. The Plum Market by me actually has free gloves when you walk in. It again amazes me how many people pass. I would say with the nice weather, that less than 25% of the people I saw out had masks. I also saw several groups of people. I still don’t think enough people are taking this very seriously. Of course my wife has asthma, an underlying condition that could kill her if she got this virus so I am probably a bit more anal about everything than usual. But this isn’t just going to go away. Look at the other countries. 
 

[Balta1701]

51 minutes ago, bmags said:

Do they need to make a “big” difference? 

If people start thinking they allow you to open businesses and travel back up, yes. If they drop transmission by 25% and people feel more willing to travel with them and the effect of that is larger, then the worry they do more harm than good is real.

(disclosure: I bought a 10 pack of masks a year ago when I was sick and still had to teach. I have 8 left and next dr appt and grocery run is Tuesday. These last me into June and I am masked. I want to buy a couple reusable ones to wear when walking dog, soon. So I believe in them, but only on top of shutdown orders, and I can tell you with confidence my neighbors aren’t obeying the rules so argh).

[Jose Abreu]

31 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Hopefully they make some difference, but it still stuns me how many people won’t  even put on a mask or some covering. 
 

If I could find a mask I would wear it. It’s not that people don’t want to, it’s that they’re impossible to find.