COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[caulfield12]

Noted SD biochemist Kristi Noem is conducting an experimental trial on the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine’s ability to PREVENT Covid-19.  Meanwhile, the Smithfield pork processing plant is evolving into the biggest emerging cluster in the entire country, but no stay-at-home orders as of yet, along with six other states.   WTH?

 

ECMO machines join the spotlight after saving life of former Northwestern Rose Bowler turned doctor...the drug he was taking to recover is called tocilizumab (brand name Actemra).

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-04-13/coworkers-save-coronavirus-doctor

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/evergreenhealth-doctor-opens-up-about-brush-with-death-recovery-after-covid-19/

The goal of using ECMO, which requires two nurses for each patient, was to “buy time,” Youssef said. The doctors knew that there was another process “destroying his lungs, destroying his heart, destroying his kidneys.”

Early research from China, where the novel coronavirus first struck, gave them some ideas.

Researchers abroad believed that patients with COVID-19 who were very ill, like Padgett, might have features of a “cytokine storm,” in which the body ramps up production of inflammatory cytokine proteins.

Edited April 14, 2020 by caulfield12

[NWINFan]

Make America Great Again. Fake News. Lame Stream Media. All catchy but simple phrases that don't mean anything, and I am sick of hearing them constantly. They were never that clever to begin with. And saying them over and over doesn't help address the real problems that are still facing this country.

Trump didn't even expect to be elected. When he met with Obama right after the election, he was shocked when Obama told him he had to staff the West Wing. Trump had said he was going to bring in the best people. Where were they? Who were they? Vacant faced Jared? Dumb as a brick Ivanka? Crazy Steve Bannon? BTW, where is Darth Vader Bannon now? He has disappeared and has taken his doomsday ideas with him. Thank God for small favors.

The GOP has to step forward, even if it is for political reasons. If I was a GOP office holder, I wouldn't want to be connected to this disaster. It can follow the party for decades.

Trump is finding it is easy to campaign. It is much more difficult to govern.

 

 

[Kyyle23]

5 minutes ago, NWINFan said:

Make America Great Again. Fake News. Lame Stream Media. All catchy but simple phrases that don't mean anything, and I am sick of hearing them constantly. They were never that clever to begin with. And saying them over and over doesn't help address the real problems that are still facing this country.

Trump didn't even expect to be elected. When he met with Obama right after the election, he was shocked when Obama told him he had to staff the West Wing. Trump had said he was going to bring in the best people. Where were they? Who were they? Vacant faced Jared? Dumb as a brick Ivanka? Crazy Steve Bannon? BTW, where is Darth Vader Bannon now? He has disappeared and has taken his doomsday ideas with him. Thank God for small favors.

The GOP has to step forward, even if it is for political reasons. If I was a GOP office holder, I wouldn't want to be connected to this disaster. It can follow the party for decades.

Trump is finding it is easy to campaign. It is much more difficult to govern.

 

 

Anyone who isn't lockstep with Trump is cast out.  Get in line or get out 

 

this is a good part of the reason he told us all yesterday that he has absolute authority 

[caulfield12]

12 minutes ago, NWINFan said:

Make America Great Again. Fake News. Lame Stream Media. All catchy but simple phrases that don't mean anything, and I am sick of hearing them constantly. They were never that clever to begin with. And saying them over and over doesn't help address the real problems that are still facing this country.

Trump didn't even expect to be elected. When he met with Obama right after the election, he was shocked when Obama told him he had to staff the West Wing. Trump had said he was going to bring in the best people. Where were they? Who were they? Vacant faced Jared? Dumb as a brick Ivanka? Crazy Steve Bannon? BTW, where is Darth Vader Bannon now? He has disappeared and has taken his doomsday ideas with him. Thank God for small favors.

The GOP has to step forward, even if it is for political reasons. If I was a GOP office holder, I wouldn't want to be connected to this disaster. It can follow the party for decades.

Trump is finding it is easy to campaign. It is much more difficult to govern.

 

 

Starting to see signs.  Gov. Baker joining the NE states coalition.  Hogan in MD and DeWine in Ohio have been pretty independent, all things considered.   Will probably see MD and VA and possibly NC working together at some point.

The big test cases are going to be those mass population states like TX, FL and GA.   Louisiana and NM will block off highways so Texans can’t leave? 
 

There’s also that huge block of states across the south from SC to Texas and straight north to Missouri and Iowa with GOP governors...are they really going to dare to open up together as an organized “counter” coalition in two weeks?
 

 

Edited April 14, 2020 by caulfield12

[chitownsportsfan]

If you're God you really couldn't have written a better script than having Ronald Reagan say the four most terrifying words in the English language are "I'm from the Government..." and then 30 years later you have essentially a situation that can only be solved by strong, steady, good Government.

One day perhaps more Americans will realize that the Founders were big believers in Government.   And for good reason!

Edited April 14, 2020 by chitownsportsfan

[Balta1701]

What a mess this is going to be...

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/pandemic-summer-coronavirus-reopening-back-normal/609940/

 

 

[pcq]

Just now, NWINFan said:

Make America Great Again. Fake News. Lame Stream Media. All catchy but simple phrases that don't mean anything, and I am sick of hearing them constantly. They were never that clever to begin with. And saying them over and over doesn't help address the real problems that are still facing this country.

Trump didn't even expect to be elected. When he met with Obama right after the election, he was shocked when Obama told him he had to staff the West Wing. Trump had said he was going to bring in the best people. Where were they? Who were they? Vacant faced Jared? Dumb as a brick Ivanka? Crazy Steve Bannon? BTW, where is Darth Vader Bannon now? He has disappeared and has taken his doomsday ideas with him. Thank God for small favors.

The GOP has to step forward, even if it is for political reasons. If I was a GOP office holder, I wouldn't want to be connected to this disaster. It can follow the party for decades.

Trump is finding it is easy to campaign. It is much more difficult to govern.

 

 

Although most positions have not been filled we have only the best people serving. No need for all those pandemic staffers sitting around until something bad happens. 

[NWINFan]

4 hours ago, Kyyle23 said:

Anyone who isn't lockstep with Trump is cast out.  Get in line or get out 

 

this is a good part of the reason he told us all yesterday that he has absolute authority 

By tradition, the president is the leader of his party. But the GOP has lost control of the situation and is not operating as an institution. One day, maybe even sooner than later, the party will pay for this and pay for this big time. It is one thing for a president to be a leader; it is another for him to be dictator.

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, chitownsportsfan said:

If you're God you really couldn't have written a better script than having Ronald Reagan say the four most terrifying words in the English language are "I'm from the Government..." and then 30 years later you have essentially a situation that can only be solved by strong, steady, good Government.

One day perhaps more Americans will realize that the Founders were big believers in Government.   And for good reason!

Honestly, the Articles of Confederation failed because they were too weak.  Even the 1789 constitution has been added to and added to as each successive government expanded their power base. 

But for all of the strict consitutionalists out there freaking out about Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness, seem to forget that LIFE comes first in that phrase.

[Dick Allen]

10 minutes ago, NWINFan said:

By tradition, the president is the leader of his party. But the GOP has lost control of the situation and is not operating as an institution. One day, maybe even sooner than later, the party will pay for this and pay for this big time. It is one thing for a president to be a leader; it is another for him to be dictator.

Trump endorsements aren't the gold they were a couple of years ago. I think people may finally be getting sick of the craziness. He likes to call some RINOs, but that seems to be more projection. He stole the republican party. He's not a republican. It wouldn't surprise me as we go on that many of his buddies start trying to distance themselves from him. 

[bmags]

5 minutes away from a very important day for illinois numbers. We have seen a drop 2 days in a row. But 3 days makes it much likelier to be a trend.

[justBLAZE]

10 minutes ago, bmags said:

5 minutes away from a very important day for illinois numbers. We have seen a drop 2 days in a row. But 3 days makes it much likelier to be a trend.

WELL??

[bmags]

8 minutes ago, justBLAZE said:

WELL??

flat, 1222 new cases, more than the 1075 yesterday. Curve has been very slow to bend here. Tests? still at 5k ?

[Texsox]

https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article241995866.html California's plan to reopen. 

[StrangeSox]

Our institutions are failing us when we need them most.

 

 

[StrangeSox]

NYC has added 3,700+ deaths to their COVID totals today. These are not lab-confirmed but likely COVID deaths. They've been seeing big spikes in "coronary events," deaths at home etc. that weren't being officially classified since they didn't get a formal test.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus-deaths.html

New York City, already a world epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, sharply increased its death toll by more than 3,700 victims on Tuesday, after officials said they were now including people who had never tested positive for the virus but were presumed to have died of it.

The new figures, released by the city’s Health Department, drove up the number of people killed in New York City to more than 10,000, and appeared to increase the overall United States death count by 17 percent to more than 26,000.

[...]

The revised death toll renewed focus on shortcomings in testing that have hamstrung city and state officials since the beginning of the outbreak. A limited number of tests have been available, and until now, only deaths where a person had tested positive were counted among those killed by the virus in New York.

 

But for weeks, the Health Department also had been recording additional deaths tied to the virus, according to two people briefed on the matter. Those cases involved people who were presumed to have been infected because of their symptoms and medical history.

 

[..]

 

Epidemiologists who study such events said a complete account would include an analysis of the number of so-called excess deaths caused by the coronavirus, comparing the number of New Yorkers who died of all causes during the outbreak with the number of people who die during the same time period in an average year.

Those deaths, not caused by the disease but by other factors, can be connected to the outbreak, epidemiologists said, in part because of the way it overwhelmed the normal health care system.

 

City health officials have been gathering data on “excess deaths” as well, according to several people with knowledge of the discussions at the department. It was not clear when those figures would be released.

 

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, StrangeSox said:

Our institutions are failing us when we need them most.

 

 

Just wait until we report UNE claims again later this week and the Dow jumps another 1000 points...seems to be a complete disconnect here between the lives of everyday Americans and small/medium-sized businesses.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/14/state-department-cables-warned-safety-issues-wuhan-lab-studying-bat-coronaviruses/?tid=pm_pop&itid=pm_pop

Well, there’s still no proof about the origin...but this is yet another indication of a widening chasm between the two countries is the new normal.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/04/14/its-not-just-trump-whos-angry-china/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_wv-china-315pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans&itid=hp_hp-top-table-main_wv-china-315pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans

It’s Not Just Trump Who is Angry at China

Edited April 14, 2020 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-14/harvard-researchers-say-some-distancing-may-be-needed-into-2022
Uh-oh.  Unbelievable but not impossible.  The Greg Nightmare Scenario.

 

WWE wrestlers are now being classified as essential workers?  Okay, sure...but kudos to NY Gov. Cuomo for not engaging in heated rhetoric.   Simply stated he won’t follow any order if he believes residents are in danger and would likely end up in the Supreme Court.  Alexander Hamilton’s original vision of concentrated Federal powers has never been more relevant.

At least Liz Cheney gets it!

 

20 minutes into the press briefing already and nothing about what we’re going to do to get through this.

January 22nd-24th Trump twitter feed pretty much negates everything said so far about WHO.  That said, many organizations (including media outlets) declared this a pandemic at least 7-10 days before the WHO did.

Edited April 14, 2020 by caulfield12

[poppysox]

8 hours ago, NWINFan said:

Make America Great Again. Fake News. Lame Stream Media. All catchy but simple phrases that don't mean anything, and I am sick of hearing them constantly. They were never that clever to begin with. And saying them over and over doesn't help address the real problems that are still facing this country.

Trump didn't even expect to be elected. When he met with Obama right after the election, he was shocked when Obama told him he had to staff the West Wing. Trump had said he was going to bring in the best people. Where were they? Who were they? Vacant faced Jared? Dumb as a brick Ivanka? Crazy Steve Bannon? BTW, where is Darth Vader Bannon now? He has disappeared and has taken his doomsday ideas with him. Thank God for small favors.

The GOP has to step forward, even if it is for political reasons. If I was a GOP office holder, I wouldn't want to be connected to this disaster. It can follow the party for decades.

Trump is finding it is easy to campaign. It is much more difficult to govern.

 

 

I'm surprised you haven't been suspended with your continued political chirping.  I thought it was made clear that it wouldn't be tolerated.

[The Beast]

5 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

What a mess this is going to be...

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/pandemic-summer-coronavirus-reopening-back-normal/609940/

 

 

That article of extremely well done and covers a number of angles. Thanks for sharing.

[Balta1701]

3 hours ago, bmags said:

flat, 1222 new cases, more than the 1075 yesterday. Curve has been very slow to bend here. Tests? still at 5k ?

If you check this post - https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/pandemic-summer-coronavirus-reopening-back-normal/609940/ - it may actually not be possible to increase testing any further. All of the private labs that can do them are now backlogged, and since we didn't stockpile testing supplies in February and March, we are now starting to hit the limits of the rate at which tests can be run.

[caulfield12]

Ed Yong’s one of the most well-informed writers out there on this.  Has written a series of excellent articles.

.  

An Indiana congressman said Tuesday that letting more Americans die from the novel coronavirus is the "lesser of two evils" compared with the economy cratering due to social distancing measures. 

Speaking with radio station WIBC in Indiana, Republican Rep. Trey Hollingsworth asserted that, while he appreciated the science behind the virus' spread, "it is always the American government's position to say, in the choice between the loss of our way of life as Americans and the loss of life, of American lives, we have to always choose the latter."

"The social scientists are telling us about the economic disaster that is going on. Our (Gross Domestic Product) is supposed to be down 20% alone this quarter," Hollingsworth said. "It is policymakers' decision to put on our big boy and big girl pants and say it is the lesser of these two evils. It is not zero evil, but it is the lesser of these two evils and we intend to move forward that direction. That is our responsibility and to abdicate that is to insult the Americans that voted us into office."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/politics/trey-hollingsworth-coronavirus/index.html

 

At least he actually said what a lot of politicians on the conservative side are actually thinking...the economy is more important than saving an additional 40-80,000 American lives.  That’s the choice.  Sacrificing those people willingly, or fighting to save every individual that we can.

Surely he will be putting his own family members on the front lines, right?

Edited April 15, 2020 by caulfield12

[StrangeSox]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

 

 

At least he actually said what a lot of politicians on the conservative side are actually thinking...the economy is more important than saving an additional 40-80,000 American lives.  That’s the choice.  Sacrificing those people willingly, or fighting to save every individual that we can.

Surely he will be putting his own family members on the front lines, right?

The choice isn't 40-80k additional if we simply give up on quarantine measures and attempt a foolish notion of "just go back to normal."

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

If you check this post - https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/pandemic-summer-coronavirus-reopening-back-normal/609940/ - it may actually not be possible to increase testing any further. All of the private labs that can do them are now backlogged, and since we didn't stockpile testing supplies in February and March, we are now starting to hit the limits of the rate at which tests can be run.

A solid if depressing article. This is really key imo:

 

Quote

The pandemic is not a hurricane or a wildfire. It is not comparable to Pearl Harbor or 9/11. Such disasters are confined in time and space. The SARS-CoV-2 virus will linger through the year and across the world. “Everyone wants to know when this will end,” said Devi Sridhar, a public-health expert at the University of Edinburgh. “That’s not the right question. The right question is: How do we continue?”

 

So much of the talk has been around flattening the curve, and then it's "whew, we flattened the curve. we won!" No. This won't be over until we can vaccinate our way out of it. We can't just do a one-time shelter in place and fix everything.

 

And make no mistake, we're in such a terrible spot because of historically incompetent denial and inaction from the federal government. We had months to prepare that were not just wasted but were used to call the whole thing a hoax.

Edited April 15, 2020 by StrangeSox

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, StrangeSox said:

The choice isn't 40-80k additional if we simply give up on quarantine measures and attempt a foolish notion of "just go back to normal."

A solid if depressing article. This is really key imo:

 

 

So much of the talk has been around flattening the curve, and then it's "whew, we flattened the curve. we won!" No. This won't be over until we can vaccinate our way out of it. We can't just do a one-time shelter in place and fix everything.

 

And make no mistake, we're in such a terrible spot because of historically incompetent denial and inaction from the federal government. We had months to prepare that were not just wasted but were used to call the whole thing a hoax.

I was simply just giving an estimate of what would happen under a partial reopening (some states but not others)...let’s say, theoretically the states with GOP governors with exceptions like MA, MD and OH.

We’re all just guessing now.  Could be in the hundreds of thousands, since we don’t know how many actually have it.

The Ed Yong Atlantic article accurately points out how immense the ranges are of a fairly accurate test when you start talking about the differentials between just 1% and 5% already having it (or recovered asymptomatically and developed antibodies along the way.)   Below are perhaps two of the most significant paragraphs for an array of health experts to stew over the ramifications.

There’s not yet a precise opportunity cost or cost/benefit formula that equates an additional 20,000 lives lost vs. 1/10th of a point off yearly GDP, or whatever relevant metric we choose to apply.  

Trump’s idea is that the stock market coming back up is the best measuring stick, but most Americans aren’t going to see it that way.  In fact, one can reasonably conclude that higher unemployment will actually lead to further automation and leaner corporations that have hollowed out the middle layers, leaving primarily corporate execs and lowly-paid gig workers/Amazon logistics.  And a renewal of the national arguments that Wang started over UBI and the future of the US workforce.

 

If it turns out that, say, 20 percent of the U.S. has been infected, that would mean the coronavirus is more transmissible but less deadly than scientists think. It would also mean that a reasonable proportion of the country has some immunity. If that proportion could be slowly and safely raised to the level necessary for herd immunity—60 to 80 percent, depending on the virus’s transmissibility—the U.S. might not need to wait for a vaccine. However, if just 1 to 5 percent of the population has been infected—the range that many researchers think is likelier—that would mean “this is a truly devastating virus, and we have built up no real population immunity,” said Michael Mina, an epidemiologist and immunologist at Harvard. “Then we’re in dire straits in terms of how to move forward.”

....

Third, serological tests for the new coronavirus could be deeply misleading for individuals. Consider the test produced by Cellex—the only one thus far with emergency use authorization from the FDA. The test has a 93.8 percent chance of correctly identifying people with antibodies against the new coronavirus, and a 95.6 percent chance of correctly identifying people who lack those antibodies. Those numbers sound great, but if only a minority of Americans have been infected, the test would return far more false positives than true ones. Put it this way: If you have a positive result, the odds that you actually have any relevant antibodies are roughly one in two if 5 percent of the U.S. has been infected, and just one in six if only 1 percent has been infected. Scientists can correct for these errors if they use serological tests to assess immunity in a population, but it’s much harder on a person-by-person basis.

Edited April 15, 2020 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/health/coronavirus-antibody-tests-scientists/index.html
 

Shocking news.  There are now widespread problems with the antibody tests (and one of the factors is that in rushing everything past normal processes and regulations meant to protect us, there’s going to be lots of FAKE results, especially from Chinese tests.)

You couldn’t create a dystopian novel/movie with such a series of missteps if Michael Crichton tried his hardest.

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3079879/chinas-initial-coronavirus-outbreak-wuhan-spread-twice-fast-we

China’s initial coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan spread twice as fast as we thought, new study suggests

Each carrier was infecting 5.7 people on average, according to US researchers, who say previous estimate had used incomplete data

Latest data based on cases whose origin could be traced more clearly, in provinces that had test kits and ample health care capacity

 

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/15/politics/trump-coronavirus-crisis/index.html

Public health experts say a prerequisite for a resumption of regular life will be a mass testing program to diagnose the sick and identify those who carry antibodies that make them immune from the disease.

But the nation's top infectious disease expert, Dr. Anthony Fauci, said Tuesday such a structure was nowhere near.

In a fresh sign of discord with the President, Fauci told the Associated Press that "we have to have something in place that is efficient and that we can rely on, and we're not there yet."

Trump reacted angrily when told of the remarks.

"I don't know what he said. Nobody does," Trump said, before warning that the federal government -- responsible for the nation's health and well-being -- has nothing to do with building the testing infrastructure that will be needed.

"The governors are supposed to do testing. It's up to them," Trump said.

Edited April 15, 2020 by caulfield12