COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[tray]

I saw  more people out shopping at Lowes today than I have ever seen there.  More than half were not wearing masks.

I think Trump called this shot, at least with Republicans.  I think the stay at home order  has effectively been lifted.

We shall see how that works out.

 

Edited April 19, 2020 by tray

[caulfield12]

They’re going to need a lot more than 450-500,000 tests performed per day (a 3X increase in current levels)...because all of these people now venturing out and about are just going to serve to increase that number of potentially infected or exhibiting symptoms.

Amazon might be the only company in the world with the capacity to create an adequate and sustainable testing regimen for their own employees...of course, the irony is that a W-shaped instead of a V or even U insures even more profits for Bezos, the Walton Family, etc.

Above and beyond that, you have all these cities like NYC being denied revenue for businesses as well as incoming tax receipts.

How can there be a reopening when many of these cities are going to be technically bankrupted by coronavirus and can longer provide essential services?

Obviously, they can double or triple taxes upon reopening to make up budget shortfalls, but that will just create more deflationary pressure...which leads to discussions of drawing down from pension funds that have already taken a 15-20% hit...and inevitably to cuts in Medicare/Medicaid and Social Security.

Of course, none of these will be considered until January, 2021.

If they don’t help the cities and hospitals when interest rates are so low, they will regret it.   Austerity policies are only going to hurt the middle class and poor, small business owners, those on fixed incomes.  The Top 10% will be just fine.  They will be making loans that lead to further indebtedness, buying up distressed properties and adding to their investment portfolio while others are forced to sell in order just to make ends meet.  Tale as old as time.

Edited April 19, 2020 by caulfield12

[Jerksticks]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

They’re going to need a lot more than 450-500,000 tests performed per day (a 3X increase in current levels)...because all of these people now venturing out and about are just going to serve to increase that number.

Amazon might be the only company in the world with the capacity to create an adequate and sustainable testing regimen for their own employees...of course, the irony is that a W-shaped instead of a V or even U insures even more profits for Bezos, the Walton Family, etc.

Above and beyond that, you have all these cities like NYC being denied revenue for businesses as well as incoming tax receipts.

How can there be a reopening when many of these cities are going to be technically bankrupted by coronavirus and can longer provide essential services?

Obviously, they can double or triple taxes upon reopening to make up budget shortfalls, but that will just create more deflationary pressure...which leads to discussions of drawing down from pension funds that have already taken a 15-20% hit...and inevitably to cuts in Medicare/Medicaid and Social Security.

Of course, none of these will be considered until January, 2021.

If they don’t help the cities and hospitals when interest rates are so low, they will regret it.   Austerity policies are only going to hurt the middle class and poor, small business owners, those on fixed incomes.  The Top 10% will be just fine.  They will be making loans that lead to further indebtedness, buying up distressed properties and adding to their investment portfolio while others are forced to sell in order just to make ends meet.  Tale as old as time.

What for?  Trace and contain lol?  330 million people?  
 

Anybody on here able to get tested yet?

We couldn’t qualify with fever and one of us with O2 at 91.  That was early March though

[caulfield12]

4 hours ago, Jerksticks said:

What for?  Trace and contain lol?  330 million people?  
 

Anybody on here able to get tested yet?

We couldn’t qualify with fever and one of us with O2 at 91.  That was early March though

It would take 73 consecutive days testing at 450,000/day to reach the 10% of population level most experts are recommending.

Three times the amount we are currently capable of.

And that’s not even going to be 10%, because many of those will be positive tests that need to be retested multiple times until it clears...not to mention the potentially reinfected, false positives/inconclusives, etc.

The former director of the CDC, Dr. Tom Frieden, is arguing it needs to be 10-20x that.   Which would amount to 1.5 - 3 million tests per day.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/19/health/us-coronavirus-sunday/index.html

Harvard is arguing 350,000 per day, compared to the present 150,000.   Btw, it’s starting to look like the Civil War Era all over again.  Florida, Texas, Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina among the first to make plans to reopen, West Virginia, Arkansas and Georgia next?

 

Edited April 19, 2020 by caulfield12

[Dick Allen]

Trump now claims his shutdown of China travel after 45 countries did before him, and over 400,000 people travelled from China to the US after the first case of Covid 19, and  over 40,000 did after his total shutdown, has saved billions of lives.

[NWINFan]

16 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Trump now claims his shutdown of China travel after 45 countries did before him, and over 400,000 people travelled from China to the US after the first case of Covid 19, and  over 40,000 did after his total shutdown, has saved billions of lives.

Trump says many things and makes many claims. I have stopped listening, especially in these times.

[StrangeSox]

Insanity

 

 

[default]

13 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

Actually,  yes.

So you believe the statement “correlation != causation“ is false?  Even the article YOU posted alludes to my claim. 

Whatever you said Donald...

[caulfield12]

Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn’t guide U.S. policies, critics say

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/17/influential-covid-19-model-uses-flawed-methods-shouldnt-guide-policies-critics-say/

 

“It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to projecting Covid-19 deaths, epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health told reporters this week, referring to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.

Others experts, including some colleagues of the model-makers, are even harsher. “That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”

[Dick Allen]

19 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

Insanity

 

 

Pritzker had to secretly fly in supplies from China before The federal government, the back ups, could seize it.

The dog whistle with the LIBERATE, his now calling social distancing politically correct. It is time for the 25rh amendment.

[southsider2k5]

37 minutes ago, default said:

So you believe the statement “correlation != causation“ is false?  Even the article YOU posted alludes to my claim. 

Whatever you said Donald...

If you actually read it, the article flat out said...

"“It’s hard not to think about it now, looking back,” Cathedral coach Jason Delaney said. “You think about fans screaming and how close everybody was to each other. You start thinking, ‘Man, it was all around us.’ But there was no way of knowing that.”

There is no way of knowing exactly how it spread or where DeSalle, Loggan, Johnson, Taylor and Rush contracted the virus. What we do know is all five were in the same gym on March 6 doing nothing more than watching the best high school basketball doubleheader in the state that night."

But you know, can't have anything that could insult the Dear Leader potentially. 

[southsider2k5]

48 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

Insanity

 

 

But you know, states right!!!

[Dick Allen]

A high school student in the NW suburbs just died of the virus and another is in ICU. Even if you are just thinking about yourself and not others, younger does seem to help, but you aren't immune. 

Edited April 19, 2020 by Dick Allen

[Balta1701]

11 hours ago, Jerksticks said:

What for?  Trace and contain lol?  330 million people?  
 

Anybody on here able to get tested yet?

We couldn’t qualify with fever and one of us with O2 at 91.  That was early March though

Yes, for trace and contain. Right now we're totally in reaction mode, with hundreds of thousands of cases. In order to safely open anything, we need to be able to throw tens of thousands of tests out every time there's a case. 

This has been bugging me specifically since my state is one of the ones that wants to reopen stuff, so let's take the example of Texas state parks. A couple things we know - people are commonly contagious for several days before they show symptoms, the virus can survive on surfaces, and whether it's the situation or biology or something else single infected people have in some cases infected dozens, if not hundreds (the entire South Korean peak apparently can be traced to 1 individual breaking quarantine).

So, a family of 4 goes to a Texas state park and camps for the weekend. Earlier that Friday, one of the parents is exposed and contracts it. They become contagious at some point that weekend while they're still using the toilets, maybe shopping at the store there, whatever. How many people are at the state park on a weekend? For normal business, several hundred, all could be exposed. They won't all come down with it, but chances are good that some people will. Everyone leaves on Sunday, going back to their local places of work for Monday and Tuesday. It is Wednesday of that week before the first person in the chain starts showing symptoms. It then takes 24 hours to get results back on the test, which comes back positive. Meanwhile, anyone who picked it up at the state park is already contagious, most likely without showing any symptoms yet for several days. 

How many people need to be tested from this chain? Everyone in the state park has to be tracked down, everyone they work with, their families, everyone at stores they visited. If any of them ran into someone who works at a nursing home, this chain could kill dozens  of people shortly. How many people need to be tested to shut down this one chain? Potentially ten thousand. Any one of that chain could be a "Super-spreader" and you don't know which person it is, so you have to track them all down. Furthermore, you don't know how the chain started, so you still have to figure out where the first person got it at. Singapore had enough cases that one person got into a packed facility for migrant workers, and now they have thousands of new cases. 

Until we have that little transmission that we can overwhelm every single case with tests, then we're in no position to relax this stuff. 

[default]

43 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

If you actually read it, the article flat out said...

"“It’s hard not to think about it now, looking back,” Cathedral coach Jason Delaney said. “You think about fans screaming and how close everybody was to each other. You start thinking, ‘Man, it was all around us.’ But there was no way of knowing that.”

There is no way of knowing exactly how it spread or where DeSalle, Loggan, Johnson, Taylor and Rush contracted the virus. What we do know is all five were in the same gym on March 6 doing nothing more than watching the best high school basketball doubleheader in the state that night."

But you know, can't have anything that could insult the Dear Leader potentially. 

I did read the article and was specifically referencing exactly what you’re citing above.  Maybe we have different interpretations of these two statements.  

Also, I fail to fully understand this desire to group anyone who disagrees with you as a supporter of our “Dear Leader.”  I mean, maybe I can understand it from a perspective of someone clinging their identity of a being person who dislikes the President.   But making that claim given the information you have about me in this case is quite the leap.  

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, default said:

I did read the article and was specifically referencing exactly what you’re citing above.  Maybe we have different interpretations of these two statements.  

Also, I fail to fully understand this desire to group anyone who disagrees with you as a supporter of our “Dear Leader.”  I mean, maybe I can understand it from a perspective of someone clinging their identity of a being person who dislikes the President.   But making that claim given the information you have about me in this case is quite the leap.  

The only leap is to read a thread like this and feel the need to attempt to correct non-factual interpretations of the articles for no reason at all, if I were to actually believe this pile of fertilizer was actually truly how you felt.  It is no coincidence that every single reply you have made here supports one political narrative, even when only the human angle is present. 

[pcq]

Just now, Dick Allen said:

Trump now claims his shutdown of China travel after 45 countries did before him, and over 400,000 people travelled from China to the US after the first case of Covid 19, and  over 40,000 did after his total shutdown, has saved billions of lives.

That's why he's taking billions from the relief funds. 

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Dick Allen said:

Pritzker had to secretly fly in supplies from China before The federal government, the back ups, could seize it.

The dog whistle with the LIBERATE, his now calling social distancing politically correct. It is time for the 25rh amendment.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-air-force-academy-commencement-politically-correct_n_5e9b7f91c5b664cb6c43d9fd
 

He can’t even get the distancing amount right.  CDC recommends six feet.   AFA commencement used eight as the guide.   Trump claimed it was ten feet.   I guess that’s closer than the difference between millions and billions, so progress...  

[default]

11 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The only leap is to read a thread like this and feel the need to attempt to correct non-factual interpretations of the articles for no reason at all, if I were to actually believe this pile of fertilizer was actually truly how you felt.  It is no coincidence that every single reply you have made here supports one political narrative, even when only the human angle is present. 

Your interpretation of my posts is a direct result of your own narratives.  Spare me from this strawman garbage.  

I don’t derive my identity by polarizing myself to one end or the other of the political spectrum.  Donald Trump is trash.  Could that set the record straight?  Nope, not for you because you can’t fit it into your own narrative about me.

You use you your podium here in the same way Trump uses his.  You two are not as different as you desperately need to believe.

Now let’s see what kind of spin you can put on this.  Can’t wait.

Edited April 19, 2020 by default

[southsider2k5]

15 minutes ago, default said:

Your interpretation of my posts is a direct result of your own narratives.  Spare me from this strawman garbage.  

I don’t derive my identity by polarizing myself to one end or the other of the political spectrum.  Donald Trump is trash.  Could that set the record straight?  Nope, not for you because you can’t fit it into your own narrative about me.

You use you your podium here in the same way Trump uses his.  You two are not as different as you desperately need to believe.

Now let’s see what kind of spin you can put on this.  Can’t wait.

It's the same spin you've used through all of your IDs on Soxtalk.  Sadly while you protest too loudly,  your actions still show otherwise. 

[default]

35 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

It's the same spin you've used through all of your IDs on Soxtalk.  Sadly while you protest too loudly,  your actions still show otherwise. 

Back with the strawman I see.  Desperation is not a good look on you.  What IDs are those?  

Contrary to Quinny’s previous claim under which I was banned, I have no ties to anyone named Tommy Longo.  But do what you need to do to save face.

Theres this paranoia around here that if someone disagrees with you, they must be the same person because how could anyone disagree with the great ss2k5? 

You result to this tactic because it’s EASY.  Easier than continuing to defend your claims and easer than dealing with the inner conflict caused by statements that challenge your identity. ?

Edited April 19, 2020 by default

[southsider2k5]

35 minutes ago, default said:

Back with the strawman I see.  Desperation is not a good look on you.  What IDs are those?  

Contrary to Quinny’s previous claim under which I was banned, I have no ties to anyone named Tommy Longo.  But do what you need to do to save face.

Theres this paranoia around here that if someone disagrees with you, they must be the same person because how could anyone disagree with the great ss2k5? 

You result to this tactic because it’s EASY.  Easier than continuing to defend your claims and easer than dealing with the inner conflict caused by statements that challenge your identity. ?

Good lord. Are you still this bitter? Let it go. It's been like a decade.

[default]

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Good lord. Are you still this bitter? Let it go. It's been like a decade.

Ahhh.. newest SS2k5 tactic:  Gaslighting.  Unfortunately for both you and me, a decade ago I was still thumbing through WSI; Soxtalk wasn't even a glint in my eye.

[poppysox]

"Quarantine is when you restrict the movement of sick people.  Tyranny is when you restrict the movement of healthy one."  Author unknown.  This quote is being heavily used in Michigan by people protesting the Governor Whitmer use of  heavy handed restrictions.

[default]

10 minutes ago, poppysox said:

"Quarantine is when you restrict the movement of sick people.  Tyranny is when you restrict the movement of healthy one."  Author unknown.  This quote is being heavily used in Michigan by people protesting the Governor Whitmer use of  heavy handed restrictions.

The problem with protestors using this quote in that context is that they cannot prove they’re healthy.  This is why we need more testing.