COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[NorthSideSox72]

1 hour ago, StrangeSox said:

Hmm

 

This is mostly bluster. There is a long history of states being able to impose these orders, and while the federal government ALSO has the authority to close things down as needed, what they don't have is the authority to force businesses or state governments open (except the Defense Production Act, which is isolated and wouldn't apply here). Court precedent defends the states too. There are no grounds for this to stand on. Also, by the time things wound their way through the currently-crippled court system, most of the orders will have begun lifting anyway.

This is just Barr saying something to make Trump happy.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

On a related note, it's amazing to me how many of the people upset about these orders keep framing it as governors and mayors disobeying the President. They actually think that's how the law works. It's not a corporate hierarchy, my dudes. The feds have delineated authorities, not the other way around.

 

[southsider2k5]

16 minutes ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

On a related note, it's amazing to me how many of the people upset about these orders keep framing it as governors and mayors disobeying the President. They actually think that's how the law works. It's not a corporate hierarchy, my dudes. The feds have delineated authorities, not the other way around.

 

And how many of them are the same people that believe the Civil War was fought over State's Rights.

[bmags]

Just now, southsider2k5 said:

And how many of them are the same people that believe the Civil War was fought over State's Rights.

better yet, how many of them two weeks ago were saying that the feds strategy for the coronavirus was federalism and that's a good thing.

[bmags]

So yeah when I saw highlights of Lightfoot slowplaying opening back up again I figured today would not be ...good news.

1500 new cases. 6600 tests.

So...yeah we're not bending the curve. It's flat. There is basically hoping remsidivir dramatically reduces deaths...and that's it. 

edit: originally said that today was a new high but we had an 1800 last week.

[pcq]

Different message every day. We just have to see how many more die and take it from there. Saw a few protestors today. This is called leadership inaction.

[ron883]

The news conference today should be interesting, considering Trump temporarily shut down immigration. I predict multiple spats with CNN reporters...

[Chisoxfn]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/coronavirus-antibody-testing-shows-la-county-outbreak-is-up-to-55-times-bigger-than-reported-cases.html

 

 

[pcq]

CDC official suggests a potential second winter wave worse than the current wave. By now they should be processing his separation papers. The surgeon general has been placed in charge of the press room coat check room. These people are wandering off-message. Nasty. 

[ron883]

Missouri sueing China for "campaign of deceit" regarding COVID-19.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/missouri-attorney-general-sues-china-campaign-deceit-covid/story?id=70268512

Lol, what a waste of taxpayer money. 

[StrangeSox]

 

[YoYoIsMyHero]

We lost 2,674 fellow Americans today, the highest count in a single day so far. 

[caulfield12]

List of officials Trump would love to fire but can’t for various reasons 

Dr. Robert Redfield (just made headlines that will scare everyone)

Dr. Alex Azar, HHS (sidelined)

Dr. Anthony Fauci, NIH (missing since last week)

Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus (WHO head)

Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the CDC

Dr. Sanjay Gupta, CNN

Fate still undetermined???

Dr. Jerome Adams (surgeon general, disappeared)

Jared Kushner

Dr. Peter Navarro (wrote a scary memo, created public record)

 

”It’s going to be gone, gone.”   No, not until there’s a vaccine.  

Of course, with the news today about the potential fall outbreak being worse, the various Nov. election scenarios start to become really interesting, especially if there’s an attempt to delay things if it looks unfavorable...not unlike the WI vote recently.  Then it’s right back to the debate about the US Post Office and mail-in ballots.

Maybe by then he will know the difference between HIV and HPV...despite Bill Gates having to lecture him twice on the subject.

Edited April 21, 2020 by caulfield12

[Dick Allen]

2 hours ago, Chisoxfn said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/coronavirus-antibody-testing-shows-la-county-outbreak-is-up-to-55-times-bigger-than-reported-cases.html

 

 

I got what I thought and probably was, the worst cold I ever had on Jan 31. Feb 1 I went to a basketball game and just felt out of it. The next day, I couldn’t get out of bed. I felt better a little better the next day and went to work, but as soon as I coughed, I was asked if I might want to work from home. I did the next day. Still had the cough for a while, and at times it was really hard to breathe. My wife then got it. She got better in a week but broke out with what looked like measles on her chest. At first she thought we had bed bugs. Today I read that about 1 in 5 have this kind of thing happen with their skin with Covid 19. Hopefully we had it, but I would think it’s doubtful.

[ptatc]

5 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Fox News’ Ainsley Earhardt Questions Trump’s Immigration Ban: What About My Au Pair?

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/fox-news-ainsley-earhardt-questions-154559444.html

Plan?  Reflected?  Informed?  Fox News?  What is the world coming to...?

Earhardt, recently divorced and a now operating as a single mom, reflected on how the immigration ban could affect farmers in America on work visas, then said, “Many families here — including mine — we have au pairs and we rely on them. I go to work at 3 o’clock in the morning so I need her there and I need her in my house so that she can help me with my daughter.”

The mother of four-year-old Hayden continued her critique of the president’s vague plan, saying, “Many families rely on child care from other countries. These au pairs come here on work visas. They have to go back to their country to get the visas renewed and we’ve been talking in my house about how that’s gonna happen. So these are all things — these are questions that we have that hopefully the president will roll out a plan and we’ll all be in informed on all of this is going to affect all of our lives.”

This is also really going to hurt universities.  I was in a boring budget meeting when this came out. The meeting went silent then got really interesting. It's going to cost states tens of millions.

[caulfield12]

54 minutes ago, ptatc said:

This is also really going to hurt universities.  I was in a boring budget meeting when this came out. The meeting went silent then got really interesting. It's going to cost states tens of millions.

I know with students here in China, they have already cancelled almost all of the quite lucrative summer exchange programs that usually last 4-6 weeks, and also allow a week or two for additional travel/tourism and university campus visits.  One remaining option is the Pioneer Research/Summer Mentoring program with professors across the US from the “elite” schools.

It’s going to especially hurt private universities that are not in that very top tier of 30 in all the well-known rankings...but are incredibly expensive.  Thinking the smaller but prestigious liberal arts schools that rely on intl. students will suffer, too (Williams, William & Mary, Oberlin, Grinnell, etc.)  

One of my students just turned down Bucknell for Imperial College/UCL/King’s College in UK due to pricing (double whammy with Chinese economy hard hit.) 

There’s going to be that “brain drain” as promising students who can’t get work (H1B)/study visas go to other “safer” destinations like Canada, Singapore, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Dubai/Abu Dhabi...as sell as staying close/r to home (NYU-Shanghai, Yale-Singapore.)

With the UK and Australian markets either becoming more antagonistic with China or having their own coronavirus problems, the uncertainty has never been higher.

Lots of gap year decisions, at least for one semester, as students/parents don’t want to get caught in an expensive online semester...which will be more likely with newfound concerns it will return with a vengeance during the fall flu season.

On the other hand, with 10-25% of Chinese students looking elsewhere...there are more opportunities and less competition for the current junior class (2021 grads).

Edited April 22, 2020 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/21/opinions/bergen-osterholm-interview-two-opinion/index.html
 

This is an excellent article...it’s a longer read, for sure, but definitely worth everyone’s time.   800,000 deaths, but at least he has a long-term perspective backed up with numerous plausible contributing factors.

We were kind of dismissing people talking about impacts into 2021-22 as alarmist in the beginning, but we’re closer to that reality now setting in (university campuses not reopening until 2021, no NFL or NCAA football season, etc.)

Harvard.  The CDC report out today.  Some of the more sophisticated models.  The California/Orange Cty study saying thectrue numbers are 55X higher.  Or this particular forecast from Dr. Osterholm.

 

And if Dr. Birx and Dr. Hahn don’t push back harder...we’ll continue to treat hydroxychloroquinine seriously, we’ll make quips like “they’ll just have to get creative” when talking about how Georgia nail and hair salons, massage places, tattoo parlors are possibly going to practice physical distancing while still performing those particular jobs.  

How are movie theaters going to profitable at 20-60% of capacity...not to mention the fact that no Hollywood studios are going to mass release their delayed premieres for just a small percentage of the US and international markets, and also run the risk of those films being pirated.   It just doesn’t make much sense when it’s only 3-5 states.   If you start opening Atlanta, Florida and Texas...there’s going to so many court battles between major cities and the governors.  Local residents are likely to trust mayors in those cities over the governor...so you’ll have 35-40% trying to reopen and the majority staying home, meaning those businesses will largely continue to flounder.

I mean, we can’t even get someone to point out the obvious...that we don’t have the best testing in the world, because the per capita basis is so much more important (achieving at least 10% of population and min. 500,000 per day nationally) than the raw numbers of tests.   You can’t simply compare Singapore and Iceland with Germany and the US unless you’re also looking at the positives.   That we’re in the 20-25% positive range when Germany is at 7% or S. Korea at 2% is truly scary. 

[Jerksticks]

54 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/21/opinions/bergen-osterholm-interview-two-opinion/index.html
 

This is an excellent article...it’s a longer read, for sure, but definitely worth everyone’s time.   800,000 deaths, but at least he has a long-term perspective backed up with numerous plausible contributing factors.

We were kind of dismissing people talking about impacts into 2021-22 as alarmist in the beginning, but we’re closer to that reality now setting in (university campuses not reopening until 2021, no NFL or NCAA football season, etc.)

Harvard.  The CDC report out today.  Some of the more sophisticated models.  The California/Orange Cty study saying thectrue numbers are 55X higher.  Or this particular forecast from Dr. Osterholm.

 

And if Dr. Birx and Dr. Hahn don’t push back harder...we’ll continue to treat hydroxychloroquinine seriously, we’ll make quips like “they’ll just have to get creative” when talking about how Georgia nail and hair salons, massage places, tattoo parlors are possibly going to practice physical distancing while still performing those particular jobs.  

How are movie theaters going to profitable at 20-60% of capacity...not to mention the fact that no Hollywood studios are going to mass release their delayed premieres for just a small percentage of the US and international markets, and also run the risk of those films being pirated.   It just doesn’t make much sense when it’s only 3-5 states.   If you start opening Atlanta, Florida and Texas...there’s going to so many court battles between major cities and the governors.  Local residents are likely to trust mayors in those cities over the governor...so you’ll have 35-40% trying to reopen and the majority staying home, meaning those businesses will largely continue to flounder.

I mean, we can’t even get someone to point out the obvious...that we don’t have the best testing in the world, because the per capita basis is so much more important (achieving at least 10% of population and min. 500,000 per day nationally) than the raw numbers of tests.   You can’t simply compare Singapore and Iceland with Germany and the US unless you’re also looking at the positives.   That we’re in the 20-25% positive range when Germany is at 7% or S. Korea at 2% is truly scary. 

Obviously not testing was our strategy to protect the hospitals.  So I wonder if that just keeps going?  Let the super sick go to the hospital and let the rest isolate at home?  

 

I just doubt you see this massive testing here based on how unimportant it has been to the feds to this point.  Like, what makes us really think they would start now?  We’re obviously not going to trace and contain.
 

One weird counter to them doing NOTHING is last I read Texas is mobilizing 1,200 national guard troops to set up testing locations in hot spots as they develop down here.  So maybe we’re taking a middle of the road approach in TX.   But this is a state mobilization not a federal response.  
 

Just speculating at what our boner in chief will end up doing.  

[Balta1701]

5 hours ago, Chisoxfn said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/coronavirus-antibody-testing-shows-la-county-outbreak-is-up-to-55-times-bigger-than-reported-cases.html

 

 

FWIW, we can actually fundamentally prove this study is biased/wrong. The methods aren't clear but it seems likely that they recruited people who wanted to be tested, and if you do that you get a biased set. 

However, beyond that, Los Angeles currently has 600 deaths. If I take the number in the middle of that range, 300,000 cases, that gives me a 0.2% death rate - comparable to the flu. That would be great news if true.  However it cannot be anywhere close to factually correct, because New York City exists.

Depending on what estimate you use, New York City currently has a death rate at about 0.15% - of the entire population. If the death rate in a full population is 0.2%, that means New York City would have to have >75% of its population already infected.

If that was the case, then New York City's population would have basically established herd immunity, and their death rate should be plummeting rapidly right now, because there would be no one else to be infected. However, New York City's death toll has stayed above 500/day for over 20 days, and Lombardy in Spain has stayed above 200/day for a month. That area should have had 100% infected long ago. The long tails are completely inconsistent with the results of this study, and suggest that this test either has a biased sample or a much higher false positive rate than reported. 

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Jerksticks said:

Obviously not testing was our strategy to protect the hospitals.  So I wonder if that just keeps going?  Let the super sick go to the hospital and let the rest isolate at home?  

 

I just doubt you see this massive testing here based on how unimportant it has been to the feds to this point.  Like, what makes us really think they would start now?  We’re obviously not going to trace and contain.
 

One weird counter to them doing NOTHING is last I read Texas is mobilizing 1,200 national guard troops to set up testing locations in hot spots as they develop down here.  So maybe we’re taking a middle of the road approach in TX.   But this is a state mobilization not a federal response.  
 

Just speculating at what our boner in chief will end up doing.  

The challenging aspect is obvious.

Let’s say something like 82 million Americans have preexisting conditions...if you keep them at home, if you keep anyone over age 55 or 60 home, you’re wiping out a huge chunk of the workforce, as well as future consumers/spenders.   All smokers, for example...at least those over age 50?

Recent studies are showing perhaps the biggest individual contributing factor in NY is obesity, at least 40% of deaths there and in UK as well.

So everyone who is obese or even overweight by BMI is a higher risk group.   How do you do this in a way that’s not going to cause “fat shaming”?   They will be guidelines without force of law...but can managers/bosses decide who should stay home and who should work?

What about African-American and Hispanics, experiencing higher incidences of Covid deaths....bundled together with a variety of socio-economic issues and lack of access to quality health care, or simply not having health insurance in general?

Those are the ones most needing to work out of financial desperation, but most Covid-vulnerable, simultaneously.

 

You’re pretty much left left with people from the Top 25% economically who don’t smoke, are under 40, more female than male, no pre-existing conditions, definitely no seniors....and high school/university students on the other end of the spectrum.

The problem is that for the rest of the 75%, they will be at heightened risk, paying down bills/credit cards/mortgages or loans and doubly incentivized to now save finally for a rainy day fund rather than for “wants” after experiencing 2008-09 and now this calamity.  It’s why a number of economists are predicting at least 9 quarters to return to 3-5% unemployment...and increased automation/redundancy through technology applications might make even that unrealistic, unless individuals just drop out of the labor pool entirely die to a combination of advanced age or alienation/discouragement.

Edited April 22, 2020 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

24 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

FWIW, we can actually fundamentally prove this study is biased/wrong. The methods aren't clear but it seems likely that they recruited people who wanted to be tested, and if you do that you get a biased set. 

However, beyond that, Los Angeles currently has 600 deaths. If I take the number in the middle of that range, 300,000 cases, that gives me a 0.2% death rate - comparable to the flu. That would be great news if true.  However it cannot be anywhere close to factually correct, because New York City exists.

Depending on what estimate you use, New York City currently has a death rate at about 0.15% - of the entire population. If the death rate in a full population is 0.2%, that means New York City would have to have >75% of its population already infected.

If that was the case, then New York City's population would have basically established herd immunity, and their death rate should be plummeting rapidly right now, because there would be no one else to be infected. However, New York City's death toll has stayed above 500/day for over 20 days, and Lombardy in Spain has stayed above 200/day for a month. That area should have had 100% infected long ago. The long tails are completely inconsistent with the results of this study, and suggest that this test either has a biased sample or a much higher false positive rate than reported. 

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/04/16/can-the-world-find-a-good-covid-19-vaccine-quickly-enough

The scariest thing I heard today was that if those completely blows up in Africa, it could take a decade to get under control, even with a vaccine in 18-24 months.

That’s why reopening all these southern states just increases the possibility somewhere down the line that an asymptomatic super-spreader travels from the US to Africa and lights the world on fire to the point where it will come and go seasonally (on a global basis) for at least 3-5 years, if not closer to a decade.

Of course, it also depends on which countries and companies succeed with the vaccine...and how philanthropic/altruistic they intend to be.  Hopefully Gates Foundation has one of the successful attempts.

[Balta1701]

13 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/04/16/can-the-world-find-a-good-covid-19-vaccine-quickly-enough

The scariest thing I heard today was that if those completely blows up in Africa, it could take a decade to get under control, even with a vaccine in 18-24 months.

That’s why reopening all these southern states just increases the possibility somewhere down the line that an asymptomatic super-spreader travels from the US to Africa and lights the world on fire to the point where it will come and go seasonally (on a global basis) for at least 3-5 years, if not closer to a decade.

Of course, it also depends on which countries and companies succeed with the vaccine...and how philanthropic/altruistic they intend to be.  Hopefully Gates Foundation has one of the successful attempts.

It's already in Africa, there's just no testing so no idea how expansive. 

[tray]

6 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Depending on what estimate you use, New York City currently has a death rate at about 0.15% - of the entire population. If the death rate in a full population is 0.2%, that means New York City would have to have >75% of its population already infected.

If that was the case, then New York City's population would have basically established herd immunity, and their death rate should be plummeting rapidly right now, because there would be no one else to be infected. However, New York City's death toll has stayed above 500/day for over 20 days, and Lombardy in Spain has stayed above 200/day for a month. That area should have had 100% infected long ago. The long tails are completely inconsistent with the results of this study, and suggest that this test either has a biased sample or a much higher false positive rate than reported.  

The tests do not appear to be accurate based on your analysis.

The concept of herd immunity is based on a presumption that those who  have been exposed to Covid-19 have developed some degree of useful immunity. That has not been determined which is why I cringe a bit when I hear herd immunity discussed as a potential strategy. I feel the same way when I hear Hydroxychloroquine and  the  orphan drug  Remdesivir  touted as silver bullets in the fight against this virus.

 

Edited April 22, 2020 by tray

[caulfield12]

Texas Lt. Governor Patrick

“And what I said when I was with you that night, there are more important things than living and that’s saving this country for my children and my grandchildren and saving this country for all of us,” said Patrick, who at age 70 is among the older Americans at higher risk of developing severe cases of COVID-19. “I don’t want to die, nobody wants to die, but we (have) got to take some risk and get back in the game and get this country back up and running.”

As of Tuesday, the state reported over 19,400 positive coronavirus cases and 495 deaths.

Patrick said the statistics indicate the country never should have been locked down.

“In Texas we have 29 million people, we have lost 495," he said. “Every life is valuable, but 500 people out of 29 million and we are locked down and we are crushing the average worker, we are crushing small business, we are crushing the markets, we are crushing this country.”

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public-health/2020/04/21/texas-lt-gov-dan-patrick-praises-economic-restart-there-are-more-important-things-than-living/

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-who-warns-2-3-percent-population-have-antibodies-2020-4

The WHO said only 2% to 3% of people tested have COVID-19 antibodies, suggesting that 'immunity passports' may not be an effective policy.

[StrangeSox]