COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[StrangeSox]

The one saving grace so far is that it's not hitting children, even infants, hard. That would be a whole different level.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Just now, ptatc said:

By being further a part and having an easier time of it spreading from place to place. In many of the other countries the population is so dense everywhere. The US is spread out pretty well. It will make it easier to keep from spreading.

The population density in big cities in the USA is every bit as packed as Italy and China.

The fact that the western part of the country has a low population density doesn't help slow the spread in population centers; which is where the majority of Americans live.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Just now, StrangeSox said:

The one saving grace so far is that it's not hitting children, even infants, hard. That would be a whole different level.

Yeah, and as a society no one gives a damn about old people because we're fvcked up. "BuT iT WoN't EfFeCt Me!"

[ptatc]

Just now, StrangeSox said:

The one saving grace so far is that it's not hitting children, even infants, hard. That would be a whole different level.

No doubt. This is odd but great.

[ptatc]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The population density in big cities in the USA is every bit as packed as Italy and China.

The fact that the western part of the country has a low population density doesn't help slow the spread in population centers; which is where the majority of Americans live.

Correct. I meant as far as spreading wildly throughout the nation. We can isolate it much more effciently for the country as a whole.

[bmags]

Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Yeah, and as a society no one gives a damn about old people because we're fvcked up. "BuT iT WoN't EfFeCt Me!"

Uh, I mean yes I worry more about my children dying than my dad. I would be in a bubble suit right now if the infant/toddler death rate was 17.5%.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Just now, ptatc said:

Correct. I meant as far as spreading wildly throughout the nation. We can isolate it much more effciently for the country as a whole.

This would be great in theory if American's actually listened and took it seriously. Sadly, everyone is still going to work. My wife still has class despite a father of a student testing positive. The entire thing is a clusterfuck. 

The problem is American's don't like to be told what to do, and they don't listen to things that the media deems serious because they're idiots. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Just now, bmags said:

Uh, I mean yes I worry more about my children dying than my dad. I would be in a bubble suit right now if the infant/toddler death rate was 17.5%.

That's fair BMags, but sadly the way things are reported we have already downplayed the fatality percentages because it's "only effecting old people." As if old peoples lives don't mean as much to the average person.

If my dad died - I don't have children yet - I would be absolutely destroyed and devastated. 

[Jenksismyhero]

Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

This would be great in theory if American's actually listened and took it seriously. Sadly, everyone is still going to work. My wife still has class despite a father of a student testing positive. The entire thing is a clusterfuck. 

The problem is American's don't like to be told what to do, and they don't listen to things that the media deems serious because they're idiots. 

This is a bit narrow-minded. You can't expect 100% of people to stop making a living. Isn't the stat like 1/4 of the country doesn't have vacation time and are paid hourly?

[StrangeSox]

8 minutes ago, ptatc said:

By being further a part and having an easier time of it spreading from place to place. In many of the other countries the population is so dense everywhere. The US is spread out pretty well. It will make it easier to keep from spreading.

I dunno, it's spread to a whole bunch of states already. Even "sparse" states like Wyoming are reporting cases now. There's only a few left without their first cases.

Most Americans live in urban or suburban environments. The overall population density in the US is low thanks to enormous amounts of unpopulated land west of the Rockies. 20 states are just as or more dense than Italy. Texas is heavily populated but density is low because so much of west Texas is just completely empty. It's still going to tear through population centers like Dallas, Houston etc. Iran is getting hit brutally hard and is only slightly more dense than the US as a whole.

Edited March 12, 2020 by StrangeSox

[mqr]

There's a Patton Oswalt(?) bit about how one day times will become so crazy that we will turn to boring, grounded movies, instead of fantasy, to escape reality. 

I watched Chef last night and it was the happiest I've been in a week. 

We're at that point. 

[StrangeSox]

2 minutes ago, Jenksismyhero said:

This is a bit narrow-minded. You can't expect 100% of people to stop making a living. Isn't the stat like 1/4 of the country doesn't have vacation time and are paid hourly?

What are those people going to do when the economy grinds to a halt and they lose their jobs anyway? Oh, and probably their insurance with it?

Not saying there's an easy answer either way, but continuing on as normal won't address those issues, either.

[Balta1701]

7 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Correct. I meant as far as spreading wildly throughout the nation. We can isolate it much more effciently for the country as a whole.

If you had perhaps supported me a week and a half ago when I argued for major travel shutdowns I might agree. But now? It’s everywhere. If you have people going to the store in Pierre South Dakota, or going to work in St Louis, they will pass it along. 

[ptatc]

4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

This would be great in theory if American's actually listened and took it seriously. Sadly, everyone is still going to work. My wife still has class despite a father of a student testing positive. The entire thing is a clusterfuck. 

The problem is American's don't like to be told what to do, and they don't listen to things that the media deems serious because they're idiots. 

As long as travel and such are limited it will have a greater effect. It will still limit it especially if large groups are avoided. There is no way to absolutely stop it but containing the spread it the goal. There will be cells pop up and containing that is the key.

Most colleges are extending break, making break earlier and doing online classes for 2 weeks after. Essentially that limits many large gatherings until mid-April. we'll see how that limits it going forward. 

[Jenksismyhero]

Just now, StrangeSox said:

What are those people going to do when the economy grinds to a halt and they lose their jobs anyway? Oh, and probably their insurance with it?

Not saying there's an easy answer either way, but continuing on as normal won't address those issues, either.

Some will, but less so if we take reasonable measures vs full on shutdown. 

I don't even see how a full shutdown would work. Do we have the infrastructure to magically deliver food to people stuck in their homes for weeks at a time?

 

[Balta1701]

6 minutes ago, Jenksismyhero said:

This is a bit narrow-minded. You can't expect 100% of people to stop making a living. Isn't the stat like 1/4 of the country doesn't have vacation time and are paid hourly?

If you can’t expect that, then you can expect a few million deaths. We can’t fix that problem now, we have to treat the emergency situation.

Figure the rest out once we have limited the explosion.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, ptatc said:

As long as travel and such are limited it will have a greater effect. It will still limit it especially if large groups are avoided. There is no way to absolutely stop it but containing the spread it the goal. There will be cells pop up and containing that is the key.

Most colleges are extending break, making break earlier and doing online classes for 2 weeks after. Essentially that limits many large gatherings until mid-April. we'll see how that limits it going forward. 

Unless there’s an effect of heat, it won’t.

[ptatc]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

If you had perhaps supported me a week and a half ago when I argued for major travel shutdowns I might agree. But now? It’s everywhere. If you have people going to the store in Pierre South Dakota, or going to work in St Louis, they will pass it along. 

It's going to get everywhere but limiting it is the key. Things like the avoiding the large groups like the colleges and sporting events will help as well. It's the shutdowns I have issue with totally shutting down won't stop it either. 

[ptatc]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Unless there’s an effect of heat, it won’t.

It will limit the spreading. It won't stop it but I don't think anything will stop it. 

[Balta1701]

Just now, ptatc said:

It's going to get everywhere but limiting it is the key. Things like the avoiding the large groups like the colleges and sporting events will help as well. It's the shutdowns I have issue with totally shutting down won't stop it either. 

Then we needed to act far more aggressively a week ago. If people are living their lives right now and doing anything other than social distancing, the exponential growth will continue.

[Balta1701]

Just now, ptatc said:

It will limit the spreading. It won't stop it but I don't think anything will stop it. 

If you’re doubling every 4 days versus every 6 days, You still wind up in the same place.  Limiting isn’t enough, you have to fully break the exponential trend.

[Jenksismyhero]

5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If you can’t expect that, then you can expect a few million deaths. We can’t fix that problem now, we have to treat the emergency situation.

Figure the rest out once we have limited the explosion.

How many millions died as a result of the great depression? If this is where a total shutdown gets us - which is what you seem to be advocating for -  what's the point?

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

15 minutes ago, Jenksismyhero said:

This is a bit narrow-minded. You can't expect 100% of people to stop making a living. Isn't the stat like 1/4 of the country doesn't have vacation time and are paid hourly?

My guy, my company has lost 10 million dollars in 5 days! No one will be making a living if this extends out over months and businesses are impacted over that time.

I would rather cease operations for a couple weeks to get things in line and then begin the recovery.

[ptatc]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Then we needed to act far more aggressively a week ago. If people are living their lives right now and doing anything other than social distancing, the exponential growth will continue.

Can't change the past. We need to work on what we can now. The cases will continue. People should not be living their lives as before. The washing hands and taking precautions is key as well as the social distancing. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Just now, Jenksismyhero said:

How many millions died as a result of the great depression? If this is where a total shutdown gets us - which is what you seem to be advocating for -  what's the point?

The economy is not going to improve as long as things continue to progress. The economy has only gotten worse, not better. If you allow this to happen over 4 months, you're talking about a recession that takes years to recover from. 

If we all accept the bleeding today, up front, for the next few weeks the recovery can start sooner.