COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[southsider2k5]

 

32 days. That is the difference between these two charts.

On March 26th, the United States had 75,000 COVID cases and just over 1000 deaths from it.

As of this morning, we have 900,000 MORE cases or just under a million cases nationwide. For the record, that works out to 1 in every 330-ish Americans having recorded a positive test. On the deaths side, we are looking at a 5000% increase in 32 days or just under 55,000 deaths.

Deaths per million US citizens has gone from 2 to 166. Case saturation has gone from 227 cases per million to 2950, or about an increase of 1300%.

Finally for those who want to use the "just a flu" line of argument, the worst flu season we have had in a decade was 61,000 deaths over an entire season for the 2017-18 flu season. It took an estimated 45 MILLION cases to get there. COVID-19 done very close to the same number of deaths (55k vs 61k) in about 44 million LESS cases. At the pace we are going at, COVID will pass this flu season in 3 more days.

To close this thought, The United States military recorded the deaths of 55,220 troops in Vietnam between December 1956 and when we left the country in April 30, 1975. COVID is going to pass that death total today in about 14 weeks worth of time from the first case in the US until today.

[bmags]

15 hours ago, turnin' two said:

I have been amazed at so many new cases every day, in light of social distancing.  

https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-illinois-video-surfaces-allegedly-201842256.html

 

People are just idiots.  That's how it keeps up.

Those people are idiots but I think as a whole the country has done really well despite the challenges. The vast majority of new cases are coming not from people going outside, but the places where people are forced to still be near. Meat plants, retirement homes, health care workers, police and transit workers are getting pummeled by this.

[NWINFan]

18 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Nervous Republicans See Trump Sinking, and Taking Senate With Him
https://www.yahoo.com/news/nervous-republicans-see-trump-sinking-160008532.html

 

From the NY Times...and now we arrive at the primary reason for the ending of the coronavirus briefings.   That said, the whole grab women by the pu#$& Billy Bush video came out less than a month before the 2016 election, and there was premature celebration and even a sense of complacency setting in from that moment on, through the Comey email findings.  Beating any incumbent has never been easy, but the two most recent examples were both tied into economic declines or recessions (1980/1992).  

You are right in that beating the incumbent is hard. However, it must be remembered that Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 by almost three million and barely carried the electoral college. He still has an uphill battle.

You are also right about how the economy affects presidential elections. But this is not a normal year, and, day by day, he is losing more control over the crisis. Saying he has a swagger won't help.

The Republicans have a right to be nervous. Things can still change a great deal in six months. But the GOP has its work cut out for it, and that includes McConnell.

[southsider2k5]

8 minutes ago, bmags said:

Those people are idiots but I think as a whole the country has done really well despite the challenges. The vast majority of new cases are coming not from people going outside, but the places where people are forced to still be near. Meat plants, retirement homes, health care workers, police and transit workers are getting pummeled by this.

Which again SHOULD go to prove how important isolation is, and how dumb it is to open up too soon.

[ScootsMcGoots]

17 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

 

32 days. That is the difference between these two charts.

On March 26th, the United States had 75,000 COVID cases and just over 1000 deaths from it.

As of this morning, we have 900,000 MORE cases or just under a million cases nationwide. For the record, that works out to 1 in every 330-ish Americans having recorded a positive test. On the deaths side, we are looking at a 5000% increase in 32 days or just under 55,000 deaths.

Deaths per million US citizens has gone from 2 to 166. Case saturation has gone from 227 cases per million to 2950, or about an increase of 1300%.

Finally for those who want to use the "just a flu" line of argument, the worst flu season we have had in a decade was 61,000 deaths over an entire season for the 2017-18 flu season. It took an estimated 45 MILLION cases to get there. COVID-19 done very close to the same number of deaths (55k vs 61k) in about 44 million LESS cases. At the pace we are going at, COVID will pass this flu season in 3 more days.

To close this thought, The United States military recorded the deaths of 55,220 troops in Vietnam between December 1956 and when we left the country in April 30, 1975. COVID is going to pass that death total today in about 14 weeks worth of time from the first case in the US until today.

I am as cautious as the next guy, especially when it comes to this current pandemic, but I would like to make the argument that we have way more testing now than we did back on March 26th. That gap you suggested, 900,000 more people having it now than they did a month ago...well our testing has ramped up since then. Could it be that a similar amount of people had it, but there just wasn't enough testing to find out?

[Jerksticks]

15 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

 

32 days. That is the difference between these two charts.

On March 26th, the United States had 75,000 COVID cases and just over 1000 deaths from it.

As of this morning, we have 900,000 MORE cases or just under a million cases nationwide. For the record, that works out to 1 in every 330-ish Americans having recorded a positive test. On the deaths side, we are looking at a 5000% increase in 32 days or just under 55,000 deaths.

Deaths per million US citizens has gone from 2 to 166. Case saturation has gone from 227 cases per million to 2950, or about an increase of 1300%.

Finally for those who want to use the "just a flu" line of argument, the worst flu season we have had in a decade was 61,000 deaths over an entire season for the 2017-18 flu season. It took an estimated 45 MILLION cases to get there. COVID-19 done very close to the same number of deaths (55k vs 61k) in about 44 million LESS cases. At the pace we are going at, COVID will pass this flu season in 3 more days.

To close this thought, The United States military recorded the deaths of 55,220 troops in Vietnam between December 1956 and when we left the country in April 30, 1975. COVID is going to pass that death total today in about 14 weeks worth of time from the first case in the US until today.

Thanks for compiling but doesn’t this just make you wonder how many COVID cases there are?  You cite an estimated 45 million flu cases but then cite only the tested cases of COVID.  2 completely different statistics designed to look the same.  
 

How many COVID cases do you estimate?  Isn’t the correct answer “nobody has any clue”?

[Jerksticks]

2 minutes ago, ScooterMcGee said:

I am as cautious as the next guy, especially when it comes to this current pandemic, but I would like to make the argument that we have way more testing now than we did back on March 26th. That gap you suggested, 900,000 more people having it now than they did a month ago...well our testing has ramped up since then. Could it be that a similar amount of people had it, but there just wasn't enough testing to find out?

Exactly.  And anybody that’s tried to get a test has found it extremely difficult to do so, my family and friends included.  I’d be more agreeable to the idea that we’ve had 1,000,000 pretty damn sick people that were sick enough to get tested.  That’s not perfect science either but I could ALMOST be convinced that it represents some kind of data point that is SOMEWHAT close to accurate.  
 

What do you think of that Scoot?
 

 

[caulfield12]

8 minutes ago, NWINFan said:

You are right in that beating the incumbent is hard. However, it must be remembered that Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 by almost three million and barely carried the electoral college. He still has an uphill battle.

You are also right about how the economy affects presidential elections. But this is not a normal year, and, day by day, he is losing more control over the crisis. Saying he has a swagger won't help.

The Republicans have a right to be nervous. Things can still change a great deal in six months. But the GOP has its work cut out for it, and that includes McConnell.

Last poll had him tied 41/41 with McGrath.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/kentucky/

[southsider2k5]

12 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

Thanks for compiling but doesn’t this just make you wonder how many COVID cases there are?  You cite an estimated 45 million flu cases but then cite only the tested cases of COVID.  2 completely different statistics designed to look the same.  
 

How many COVID cases do you estimate?  Isn’t the correct answer “nobody has any clue”?

Both deaths and cases are being underestimated significantly according to anecdotal evidence.  It is also incredibly clear that if you are getting more deaths from something in a month, than you do over a six month season, it is WAY more deadly.

[Heads22]

Naturally, Iowa is working on announcements to open back up today.

[caulfield12]

11 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

Thanks for compiling but doesn’t this just make you wonder how many COVID cases there are?  You cite an estimated 45 million flu cases but then cite only the tested cases of COVID.  2 completely different statistics designed to look the same.  
 

How many COVID cases do you estimate?  Isn’t the correct answer “nobody has any clue”?

It’s much bigger than testing at this point.   This philosophy of deliberately destroying the government from within isn’t a solution that’s currently working well for the majority of Americans...and the rebound of the stock market due to the free money spigot being turned on by the Fed while thirty million are unemployed and major states are being advised to declare bankruptcy is simply not going to be a winning formula, Thursday’s press conference debacle notwithstanding.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/06/underlying-conditions/610261/

The fight to overcome the pandemic must also be a fight to recover the health of our country, and build it anew, or the hardship and grief we’re now enduring will never be redeemed. Under our current leadership, nothing will change. If 9/11 and 2008 wore out trust in the old political establishment, 2020 should kill off the idea that anti-politics is our salvation. But putting an end to this regime, so necessary and deserved, is only the beginning.

We’re faced with a choice that the crisis makes inescapably clear. We can stay hunkered down in self-isolation, fearing and shunning one another, letting our common bond wear away to nothing. Or we can use this pause in our normal lives to pay attention to the hospital workers holding up cellphones so their patients can say goodbye to loved ones; the planeload of medical workers flying from Atlanta to help in New York; the aerospace workers in Massachusetts demanding that their factory be converted to ventilator production; the Floridians standing in long lines because they couldn’t get through by phone to the skeletal unemployment office; the residents of Milwaukee braving endless waits, hail, and contagion to vote in an election forced on them by partisan justices. We can learn from these dreadful days that stupidity and injustice are lethal; that, in a democracy, being a citizen is essential work; that the alternative to solidarity is death. After we’ve come out of hiding and taken off our masks, we should not forget what it was like to be alone.

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, Heads22 said:

Naturally, Iowa is working on announcements to open back up today.

My mom’s assisted living center in Davenport had a staff member with Covid roughly two weeks ago (supposedly they caught it quickly, not that they would admit otherwise)...but we are just finding out about it now. 

The Waterloo situation can largely be explained by that plant closure, not sure about DM.   Isn’t there a similar beef/pork processing plant in Sioux City?

Arkansas was being touted a couple of weeks ago as the perfect Covid response by Trump...

 

Edited April 27, 2020 by caulfield12

[Balta1701]

38 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

Thanks for compiling but doesn’t this just make you wonder how many COVID cases there are?  You cite an estimated 45 million flu cases but then cite only the tested cases of COVID.  2 completely different statistics designed to look the same.  
 

How many COVID cases do you estimate?  Isn’t the correct answer “nobody has any clue”?

New York City did antibody tests on a moderately large population using an FDA-approved test and found that 20% of people in the city tested positive for antibodies. If you do some backwards math, assume there's a margin of error on the tests, and then note that deaths lag after infections by a week or two, you wind up with that 1% death rate that has been the most plausible estimate for months. 

It's entirely possible that some areas are seeing more specific outbreaks in at-risk areas than New York city did, but if the death rate is 1-2% overall as seen in New York, then 2.5-5 million infections is the current range for the total US incidence since it began. 

That, to me, implies that less than 1/2 of the people who have had exposure actually ever tested positive. 

[southsider2k5]

Some sobering numbers, on how much we are probably undercounting deaths.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/04/27/covid-19-death-toll-undercounted/?arc404=true&fbclid=IwAR1WMfe5T6TFAb_7tXt4qeR9MCCeHFew2S3Kp85eD7tTQQvEytIgerVhbso

[Balta1701]

6 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Some sobering numbers, on how much we are probably undercounting deaths.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/04/27/covid-19-death-toll-undercounted/?arc404=true&fbclid=IwAR1WMfe5T6TFAb_7tXt4qeR9MCCeHFew2S3Kp85eD7tTQQvEytIgerVhbso

Worth considering that excess deaths due to people taking anti-malaria drugs and triggering heart conditions would be counted here but maybe not recognized in any other way.

[Heads22]

Iowa is back open for business, b****es. Well, 77% of it. I assume there's no travel between counties in the state.

I don't think Reynolds leadership has been well received at this time. I think there's people that want to reopen, but have no clue what in the world she is trying to do. The state's response to everything has been all over the place.

[turnin' two]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

 

32 days. That is the difference between these two charts.

On March 26th, the United States had 75,000 COVID cases and just over 1000 deaths from it.

As of this morning, we have 900,000 MORE cases or just under a million cases nationwide. For the record, that works out to 1 in every 330-ish Americans having recorded a positive test. On the deaths side, we are looking at a 5000% increase in 32 days or just under 55,000 deaths.

Deaths per million US citizens has gone from 2 to 166. Case saturation has gone from 227 cases per million to 2950, or about an increase of 1300%.

Finally for those who want to use the "just a flu" line of argument, the worst flu season we have had in a decade was 61,000 deaths over an entire season for the 2017-18 flu season. It took an estimated 45 MILLION cases to get there. COVID-19 done very close to the same number of deaths (55k vs 61k) in about 44 million LESS cases. At the pace we are going at, COVID will pass this flu season in 3 more days.

To close this thought, The United States military recorded the deaths of 55,220 troops in Vietnam between December 1956 and when we left the country in April 30, 1975. COVID is going to pass that death total today in about 14 weeks worth of time from the first case in the US until today.

 

The numbers for the US are crazy, in that ,at least to this pont, just under half the cases are right about New York City.  There are almost 400K (out of just about a million) cases between NY and NJ, and likewise, about 28.5K deaths out of 56K.  New York was just ravaged by this.  With it being an international travel hub, very high density, lots of public transit, it was just a perfect cauldron to incubate a bad outbreak.  Its brutal.

[southsider2k5]

9 minutes ago, Heads22 said:

Iowa is back open for business, b****es. Well, 77% of it. I assume there's no travel between counties in the state.

 

It will be interesting to see the stats diverge now between more and less strict states.

[StrangeSox]

16 minutes ago, Heads22 said:

Iowa is back open for business, b****es. Well, 77% of it. I assume there's no travel between counties in the state.

I don't think Reynolds leadership has been well received at this time. I think there's people that want to reopen, but have no clue what in the world she is trying to do. The state's response to everything has been all over the place.

There's no way these businesses can survive on 50% capacity anyway, but now they'll be back to having full or nearly full overhead costs. All of a sudden, if they're remaining closed, well, that was their individual choice! Don't come asking for help, you could open if you want to. Same for employees.

 

Tennessee on a similar path

Edited April 27, 2020 by StrangeSox

[Balta1701]

13 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

The numbers for the US are crazy, in that ,at least to this pont, just under half the cases are right about New York City.  There are almost 400K (out of just about a million) cases between NY and NJ, and likewise, about 28.5K deaths out of 56K.  New York was just ravaged by this.  With it being an international travel hub, very high density, lots of public transit, it was just a perfect cauldron to incubate a bad outbreak.  Its brutal.

There's a pretty convincing case that a dominant feature of New York's disaster was infighting and mixed messages between DiBlasio, Cuomo, Trump, and the scientists/health officials. To the point that the majority of this was preventable despite everything else you say.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/05/04/seattles-leaders-let-scientists-take-the-lead-new-yorks-did-not 

[bmags]

?

[Heads22]

 

[The Beast]

4 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Right.

It’s all about value-added skills.  Coding, quantitative and data analysis, AR, VR, algorithms, cloud computing, IOT, there are all more specialized, white collar positions.

The other side of that coin is the challenge for the top 1/3rd of blue collar workers to upgrade their skills before age 50 or so in a way that they become invaluable somehow to their companies.

When we have this discussion in class...it’s more about setting parameters that will allow a program to create 1,000 designs in a second, then the architect essentially using their human instincts to choose from the best options, taking into consideration both aesthetics and functionality while creatively developing improvements on the original base design.   Collaboration and cooperation vs. competition.  
 

Kai Fu Lee has an excellent 15 min. TED Talk as well as recent book on this subject that combines the best of American and Chinese approaches in this emerging field (he started his career in the US at Apple, Silicon Graphics and MSFT).

All the middle and high schools here in China are adding AI components to the curriculum these next two years...

 

 

 

Some of those value added skills take quite a bit of mathematical knowledge and need to be practiced to keep them up. I have found that the data analysis and algorithms are hard to grasp without much background in statistics or calculus, but I have found coding to be more intuitive. It’s tough to retrain and be a unicorn of sorts to do everything amazingly. 
 

I have talked to an Andrew Yang supporter about the concept of older blue collar workers retraining for positions useful to employers and for new employers. It could be a challenge for the demographic you describe. This is one of the challenges I found with coal miners since they may not be able to transition to white collar work that pays what they earned previously, but could transition to an alternative form of blue collar labor.

3 hours ago, RegionSox said:

I work in healthcare for a pretty large company.    So far, they have announced that there will be no raises or bonuses this year and suspended the 401k match until January.    They said they made do some furloughs at some point but are not planning on doing many layoffs.

What do you do for said company? I’m interested in applying my skills to health care in some capacity even if it isn’t patient care (yet, I have thought about retraining as a nurse or something else in the future). I am very sorry to hear that about raises, bonuses and benefits being frozen, I have a feeling that could happen to insurance companies soon.

[Heads22]

 

[Dick Allen]

I really think most people don't really either know or believe that people without symptoms pass this virus.