COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[Kyyle23]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

That is the most scary part of this.  The biggest outbreaks are happening where there is the most density, combined with the least chances of proper distancing.  Prisons and Nursing homes are seeing this spread like wildfire if even one case is found.  If you start re-creating these same conditions in places like public transit, malls, factories, etc, you will see the numbers start to explode again.  This seems incredibly obvious to me.

But freedom and stuff

[pcq]

The Reds should emulate Viet Nam. Declare victory and leave home. 

[RegionSox]

10 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

That is the most scary part of this.  The biggest outbreaks are happening where there is the most density, combined with the least chances of proper distancing.  Prisons and Nursing homes are seeing this spread like wildfire if even one case is found.  If you start re-creating these same conditions in places like public transit, malls, factories, etc, you will see the numbers start to explode again.  This seems incredibly obvious to me.

Yes, my grandma's nursing has quite a few cases.   They are presuming she's positive so she's in an isolation room. I think it started a week or so ago with some employees that tested positive, even thought they screened them coming in.  

[MEANS]

Twin brothers I graduated from High School with lost their mom today.

Edited May 4, 2020 by MEANS

[Balta1701]

One of the disaster scientists I follow has been pointing this out for over a month, now some press has caught up.

propublica.org/article/trump-hasnt-released-funds-that-help-families-of-covid-19-victims-pay-for-burials-members-of-congress-want-to-change-that

Quote

Democratic members of Congress are urging President Donald Trump to authorize FEMA to reimburse funeral expenses for victims of the coronavirus pandemic, citing ProPublica’s reporting about the administration’s policies.

“Just as with all previous disasters, we should not expect the families of those that died — or the hardest hit states — to pay for burials,” said the statement issued Friday from Rep. Bennie Thompson, chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, and Rep. Peter DeFazio, chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. “President Trump needs to step up and approve this assistance so FEMA can pay for the funerals of our fellow Americans so they can be buried in dignity. It is the least he can do.”

ProPublica reported last week that Trump has yet to free up a pool of disaster funding specifically intended to help families cover burial costs, despite requests from approximately 30 states and territories. In lieu of federal help, grieving families are turning to religious institutions and online fundraisers to bury the dead.
...

The administration’s failure so far to pay for funeral costs does not appear to be because of a lack of funds. Congress gave FEMA’s disaster relief fund an extra boost of $45 billion in the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act in March.

 

[StrangeSox]

Add in that the official death totals are almost definitely an undercount when you compare to excess deaths, and we're looking at a very grim summer.

 

 

[Iwritecode]

2 hours ago, Tony said:

@greg775 won't respond. He "saw it on TV" that is was fake" so his mind is made up. It's a fake sign. 

Greg has never let facts get in the way of his opinion.

[Pants Rowland]

6 hours ago, StrangeSox said:

 

Thank you for posting. I was skeptical on the effectiveness of face coverings, particularly when it came to just random homemade masks. Then I read an article in the Atlantic that echoed your post. I have also since heard of real life examples of the rate of spread plummeting in areas with mandatory mask orders. It's what makes it so frustrating when prominent public figures like Trump or Pence refuse to model and promote such a simple, cheap and effective practice. 

[Chisoxfn]

35 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

Add in that the official death totals are almost definitely an undercount when you compare to excess deaths, and we're looking at a very grim summer.

 

 

And lets cherry pick the fact that even if deaths are understated by 2x, the actual cases are understated somewhere between 10 & 50 times.   I think you have to consider both aspects of the equation (and I personally don't believe deaths are understated by a magnitude of 2x).  But I could be wrong. New York might have 20-25% infected and an overall state wide mortality rate of .2% (looking at aggregate population). And that .2% is elevated by fact that they couldn't actually keep up with cases (which is real and clearly elevates mortality rates).  If you assume 20% of population and get to some stat where 80% is infected over course of next 1.5 years, you are looking at a .8% stressed mortality rate (since the .2% is based upon some level of stresses).  

Obviously this stat can be scaled up / down based upon how much you think the actual state has been infected. I would hope over time, all of those numbers would be scaled down as our doctors are learning how to better treat the virus (both in terms of up-front actions that can be taken & as well as with various treatments that emerge). All of the above is why it is important to bend the curve to us to build up a time to better learn how to treat and/or come up with a vaccine. 

[caulfield12]

A security guard is shot and killed after telling customer to put on a face mask  (Family Dollar in Flint, MI)

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/04/us/michigan-security-guard-mask-killing-trnd/index.html

 

Pulitzer-prize winning science journalist who predicted pandemic and has been all over this story since January, Laurie Garrett  (from New York Times)

https://www.yahoo.com/news/she-predicted-coronavirus-does-she-185553863.html

“I’ve been telling everybody that my event horizon is about 36 months, and that’s my best-case scenario,” she said.

.....

If America enters the next wave of coronavirus infections “with the wealthy having gotten somehow wealthier off this pandemic by hedging, by shorting, by doing all the nasty things that they do, and we come out of our rabbit holes and realize, ‘Oh, my God, it’s not just that everyone I love is unemployed or underemployed and can’t make their maintenance or their mortgage payments or their rent payments, but now all of a sudden those jerks that were flying around in private helicopters are now flying on private personal jets, and they own an island that they go to, and they don’t care whether or not our streets are safe,’ then I think we could have massive political disruption.

“Just as we come out of our holes and see what 25% unemployment looks like,” she said, “we may also see what collective rage looks like.”

.....

Referring to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta and its analogues abroad, she told me, “I’ve heard from every CDC in the world — the European CDC, the African CDC, China CDC — and they say, ‘Normally, our first call is to Atlanta, but we ain’t hearing back.’ There’s nothing going on down there. They’ve gutted that place. They’ve gagged that place. I can’t get calls returned anymore. Nobody down there is feeling like it’s safe to talk. Have you even seen anything important and vital coming out of the CDC?”

Edited May 4, 2020 by caulfield12

[StrangeSox]

57 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

And lets cherry pick the fact that even if deaths are understated by 2x, the actual cases are understated somewhere between 10 & 50 times.   I think you have to consider both aspects of the equation (and I personally don't believe deaths are understated by a magnitude of 2x).  But I could be wrong. New York might have 20-25% infected and an overall state wide mortality rate of .2% (looking at aggregate population). And that .2% is elevated by fact that they couldn't actually keep up with cases (which is real and clearly elevates mortality rates).  If you assume 20% of population and get to some stat where 80% is infected over course of next 1.5 years, you are looking at a .8% stressed mortality rate (since the .2% is based upon some level of stresses).  

Obviously this stat can be scaled up / down based upon how much you think the actual state has been infected. I would hope over time, all of those numbers would be scaled down as our doctors are learning how to better treat the virus (both in terms of up-front actions that can be taken & as well as with various treatments that emerge). All of the above is why it is important to bend the curve to us to build up a time to better learn how to treat and/or come up with a vaccine. 

What is that base don?

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

On 5/3/2020 at 2:34 PM, greg775 said:

From a relative of mine who is a nurse in Chicago: " Its beyond stupid at this point. Only one view is allowed by the liberal media and that is keep the shutdown going. Somehow the plot changed from flattening the curve to keep hospitals below capacity to nobody should ever get Covid. It makes no sense."

What do u all think of this?

this is pure nonsense. No one is saying stay home so no one gets it. havent met a single health care professional from a legit hospital say this was overblown. 

[caulfield12]

22 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

this is pure nonsense. No one is saying stay home so no one gets it. havent met a single health care professional from a legit hospital say this was overblown. 

In all honesty, it seems like one of those “well, I’m a lifetime Democrat/Republican but this election I’m finally so fed up with XYZ that I’m going to vote...”

It must be 30% of the calls at C-Span these days.   

If you look at most articles from various publications that are being republished at other sites, there’s almost always a string of comments over the last 2-3 weeks exactly like this one:

“Scare tactics to say the least probably motivated by political ideology. I live and have lived in a metro area of more than one million residents. I know of no one who has contracted coronavirus, I know of no friends or friends of friends who have the virus. A good friend is a doctor at a major hospital here and said there are only 8 patients hospitalized for covid19 in his hospital. Why hasn't the homeless population been more affected, why haven’t our grocery workers or mail carriers been more affected?  Sure it spreads fast and can be deadly, but we are all in hyper panic as a result of news media reports and doomsayers?  Life is a gamble, nothing for sure, take necessary precautions and live life.”

 

Seems that 1/3rd the country won’t even believe this is actually real until a close friend or relative contracts it and is hospitalized.

Edited May 4, 2020 by caulfield12

[Dick Allen]

The new leaked CDC report says 3000 people a day will be dying in June. You know June, that’s when Jared says things will be getting back to normal.

What a shit  show.

[bmags]

5 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

1. The problem is - outside of New York, cases around the rest of the country have been growing at 17% per day for the past few weeks. New York coming down from crisis state has made the overall country look better, but "not much of a change" when things have been on a slow growth path means...continually increasing case numbers. So yeah, curbside pickup is nice, but it's only almost flattened the curve.

2. I haven't seen anything that makes me believe we have a good understanding of what types of behaviors are low-risk. We bounce from one statement about how long it lives in the air under certain conditions to another, there's just not been enough time to understand the lifespan of this thing. Furthermore, you can't just consider "opening garden centers increases risk one way", you have to consider the whole setup to assess that. Are more people going to the gas station? If they go to the garden center do they take more trips outside elsewhere? Were the landscapers moving in large or small groups? No state has had time to actually assess any of that.

3. When case numbers are already increasing, allowing slight increases to in-person interaction...well there's only one place that ends.

I don't think 17% is accurate unless you are cherry picking certain states, and even then I'd be skeptical it isn't just due to testing increases. Illinois, the state in question, has seen higher numbers the last week but lower % positive.

2. We know viruses are less transmittable outdoors than indoors. We know the combination of heat, humidity, and sunlight are less hospitable to the virus. We know people wearing masks lowers transmission. We know keeping at a distance lowers transmission and washing your hands kills the virus. All of the activities allow people to take advantage of these, and there are very known upsides to letting people enjoy the outdoors and sunlight and exercise.

3. Obviously we will see with Illinois (where the % positives aren't increasing btw).

[southsider2k5]

53 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

The new leaked CDC report says 3000 people a day will be dying in June. You know June, that’s when Jared says things will be getting back to normal.

What a shit  show.

The White House already disavowed the report and said it didn't come from them.

[Dick Allen]

5 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The White House already disavowed the report and said it didn't come from them.

They are disavowing a Trump administration report. You can’t make this stuff up, and he upped his death to.l to 80k to 90k. We are at almost 70k. He will revise it again.

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

They are disavowing a Trump administration report. You can’t make this stuff up, and he upped his death to.l to 80k to 90k. We are at almost 70k. He will revise it again.

Give Me Liberty — And Give Me Death Why Trump’s Plan to Reopen the Economy is Going to Fail

https://eand.co/give-me-liberty-and-give-me-death-80f145090326

 

Whatever the numbers are, it really doesn’t matter at this point, because every single aspect of this is so politicized.

What I would like to see, though, is someone explain how the 60-80% of Americans struggling from paycheck to paycheck...the majority working for small businesses, are going to get through this, because no matter what happens in the coming months, the majority of Americans are going to dramatically change their spending/consumption habits.

And the way this is predictably working out so far is that we’re simply strengthening the power of oligopolies over the daily lives of every American, regardless of whichever side of the partisan divide they occupy.

 

Edited May 5, 2020 by caulfield12

[bmags]

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/davidmack/coronavirus-parks-beaches-ok-safe-social-distancing-experts

A bunch of epidemiologists asked about going outside. They said it’s fine, keep a distance, wear a mask.

[greg775]

Heard the Chicago mayor went on TV and said the government is watching people on social media and will come arrest you if you are bragging about being at parties, etc. Is this true? Then she bragged about getting her hair done saying she had to, she is the voice of the city. My friend said it was on Tucker Carlson.

Is she coming across as pompous or good through this?

 

[Chisoxfn]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/davidmack/coronavirus-parks-beaches-ok-safe-social-distancing-experts

A bunch of epidemiologists asked about going outside. They said it’s fine, keep a distance, wear a mask.

Plus Vitamin D may actually have a positive impact on an individuals ability to fight this (in general Vitamin D is good) and exercise and being out flat out counters the risk of increased diabetes, hypertension and everything else from people being locked in their houses consistently.  A happy medium is opening things up, but requiring mandatory masks (I don't get why this isn't just a fed thing - it flat out works) and be reasonable about what you open up (i.e,. no amusement parks, no full openings of restaurants, no fans in attendance to live sports). Keep those crazy things in check until this thing has passed.  If we do this...I think they can keep things manageable. 

There is obviously going to me more infections with the above than a complete stay at home order, but I also think in general it is likely a happy medium that will manage economic devastation with human devastation (i.e. lives lost).  There is some trade off and I'm glad I'm not the one making the decision on that. 

[greg775]

1 hour ago, Chisoxfn said:

Plus Vitamin D may actually have a positive impact on an individuals ability to fight this (in general Vitamin D is good) and exercise and being out flat out counters the risk of increased diabetes, hypertension and everything else from people being locked in their houses consistently.  A happy medium is opening things up, but requiring mandatory masks (I don't get why this isn't just a fed thing - it flat out works) and be reasonable about what you open up (i.e,. no amusement parks, no full openings of restaurants, no fans in attendance to live sports). Keep those crazy things in check until this thing has passed.  If we do this...I think they can keep things manageable. 

There is obviously going to me more infections with the above than a complete stay at home order, but I also think in general it is likely a happy medium that will manage economic devastation with human devastation (i.e. lives lost).  There is some trade off and I'm glad I'm not the one making the decision on that. 

I have a big head and glasses and the masks suck. also they aren't for sale anywhere. Do those scarves with sports logos I see on the Internet work? are they hard to put on?

[greg775]

3 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Give Me Liberty — And Give Me Death Why Trump’s Plan to Reopen the Economy is Going to Fail

https://eand.co/give-me-liberty-and-give-me-death-80f145090326

 

What I would like to see, though, is someone explain how the 60-80% of Americans struggling from paycheck to paycheck...the majority working for small businesses, are going to get through this, because no matter what happens in the coming months, the majority of Americans are going to dramatically change their spending/consumption habits.

They aren't going to get through this. Homelessness will be calling when the credit card companies want their money.

Nobody is talking about the economy just shaming about masks and staying at home. Nobody even wants to work it seems.

Americans are hoarding and using their charge cards to do so. On a Monday night tonight I was absolutely shocked at the crowds at the grocery stores. All people do are sleep, get up, eat, self school their kids, take  a walk, then go to the store and fill up with their credit cards. Before the pandemic all u heard about was people living paycheck to paycheck and not saving for retirement. Now they are maxing out their credit cards on food and toilet paper and cleanser and tylenon and other drugs they think they'll need.

I read today there is a movement going on for a second Civil War. If the unrest hits, rioting, etc., it'll be all over. The rich better not flaunt their wealth, that is for sure, because we are going to have so many homeless  with unemployment to be around 40-50 percent minimum, it'll shock you.

Edited May 5, 2020 by greg775

[Chisoxfn]

18 minutes ago, greg775 said:

I have a big head and glasses and the masks suck. also they aren't for sale anywhere. Do those scarves with sports logos I see on the Internet work? are they hard to put on?

THey'll do the job.  Nothing is perfect, but by and large, I think the key is something is much better than nothing. 

[Soxbadger]

14 minutes ago, greg775 said:

They aren't going to get through this. Homelessness will be calling when the credit card companies want their money.

Nobody is talking about the economy just shaming about masks and staying at home. Nobody even wants to work it seems.

Americans are hoarding and using their charge cards to do so. On a Monday night tonight I was absolutely shocked at the crowds at the grocery stores. All people do are sleep, get up, eat, self school their kids, take  a walk, then go to the store and fill up with their credit cards. Before the pandemic all u heard about was people living paycheck to paycheck and not saving for retirement. Now they are maxing out their credit cards on food and toilet paper and cleanser and tylenon and other drugs they think they'll need.

I read today there is a movement going on for a second Civil War. If the unrest hits, rioting, etc., it'll be all over. The rich better not flaunt their wealth, that is for sure, because we are going to have so many homeless  with unemployment to be around 40-50 percent minimum, it'll shock you.

Maybe its time for another new deal, where we work together to make sure that even in times of crisis everyone can eat, get medical treatment and have a minimum quality of life.

We can do it, we just have to prioritize. In the last few months people are starting to realize that the people who work at the grocery store, who work at the factory are important, maybe more important than the millionaires who are making money on stocks and dividends.

When something bad happens you should use it as an opportunity to improve.