COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

8 minutes ago, Texsox said:

https://wallethub.com/edu/states-most-least-dependent-on-the-federal-government/2700/

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/economy/2019/03/20/how-much-federal-funding-each-state-receives-government/39202299/

 

 

Yeah, and Nikki Haley had the audacity to say states should be forced to go bankrupt. The former governor of SC. 

[NorthSideSox72]

25 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

It's not a terrible result, at least right now, but we do have Fox News pushing not just "reopen the economy!" right now but also actively agitating against social distancing and mask-wearing. I fear the support will only get weaker across the board as this drags on with no real plan or leadership and active opposition to doing anything about it from one side.

I think short term there will be a trend that way. But I also think that as redder states and rural areas get hit harder, in places that didn't do much in the first place and are pushing to do even less now (see Iowa as a prime example), the deaths will increase and it will start to hit home a little harder. That will hit the GOP-leaning crowd much harder than they are being hit right now. Once a lot more people start knowing someone who died, see their own smaller communities hit by it, read about it in the local papers... they will see it more seriously.

 

[bmags]

It is...amusing watching republicans try to play their out-of-power routine of trying to harness the anger of anti-establishment groups pushing irresponsible actions while actually being the main party in power. Toeing the line by pushing down to governors the responsibility of reopening so they aren't responsible if it goes badly, while also criticizing those that aren't reopening (despite their guidelines advising not to) to try and stoke negative publicity and cut down the governors.

Dewine/Baker/Hogan getting the squeeze on it but will benefit from the independents politically.

But then you remember that more people are suffering and dying and it isn't as amusing.

[Jerksticks]

Is this the week we see Sweden’s death toll spike to 50-100k?

[StrangeSox]

21 minutes ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

I think short term there will be a trend that way. But I also think that as redder states and rural areas get hit harder, in places that didn't do much in the first place and are pushing to do even less now (see Iowa as a prime example), the deaths will increase and it will start to hit home a little harder. That will hit the GOP-leaning crowd much harder than they are being hit right now. Once a lot more people start knowing someone who died, see their own smaller communities hit by it, read about it in the local papers... they will see it more seriously.

 

I think support will drop among the non-GOP crowd as well. I hope you're right.

[StrangeSox]

2 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

Is this the week we see Sweden’s death toll spike to 50-100k?

Hey by your estimates we must be at 500m-1000m Americans already infected

[bmags]

if only these swedes knew they had to be our datapoint and would stop self isolating!

[caulfield12]

Even if we “discounted” older lives at just $1-2.5 million (because of the average age of death from Covid-19) instead of the suggested $10 million in the article below...we’re now willingly sacrificing twice as many Americans in the process and essentially revaluing their lives at JUST $235,000 per person in NY, FL, TX and GA.

 

In every instance, looser restrictions improve the performance of the economy but also lead to more deaths. If New York loosened restrictions by two notches, there’d be more business activity and $2.4 billion in additional statewide income. But 5,000 more people would die. Texas and Georgia now have moderate restrictions in place, which the Rand model estimates will cause 25,000 additional deaths in the two states combined. But it will also generate an extra $5.1 billion in income, combined.

Extrapolating to determine the income gained per death when comparing moderate and strict measures yield these figures:

New York: $163,000

Florida: $276,000

Georgia: $247,000

Texas: $254,000

California: $700,000

When evaluating the impact of government policies that affect public health, analysts place a statistical value of about $10 million on each human life as a way of measuring the appropriate amount of risk a policy may cause or mitigate. By that standard, the payback from reopening is low, although governors are factoring in other things such as the political mood, hospital capacity and demands from businesses.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-cost-of-reopening-the-economy-in-lives-201007725.html

[caulfield12]

25 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

Hey by your estimates we must be at 500m-1000m Americans already infected

You would think the phrase “per capita” never had been invented.  Stockholm doesn’t even have a population of ONE million.  

Goteberg or Gothenburg, #2 largest “city” at 548,000.   That would be #33/34 in the US, Tucson or Fresno metropolitan area.
 

Let’s look at Vietnam for a country to emulate, last time I checked they had just a handful of deaths...and they’re not even “first world” compared to Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and the larger megacities in eastern and southern China.

Edited May 5, 2020 by caulfield12

[Jerksticks]

47 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

Hey by your estimates we must be at 500m-1000m Americans already infected

I admit the data isn’t there.  Nobody knows shit.  But yea, I’d guess we have at least 10s of millions of Americans infected at a minimum.  It’s the only thing that makes sense to me. 

Edited May 5, 2020 by Jerksticks

[Jerksticks]

32 minutes ago, bmags said:

if only these swedes knew they had to be our datapoint and would stop self isolating!

I never said to emulate Sweden.  I just said it looks like it will be the closest thing to a guinea pig the world has.  Real data.  It’s ok to want data.  Data is good.  

[StrangeSox]

5 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

I admit the data isn’t there.  Nobody knows shit.  But yea, I’d guess we have at least 10s of millions of Americans infected at a minimum.  It’s the only thing that makes sense to me. 

On 3/15/2020 at 3:49 PM, Jerksticks said:

Welcome to the light.  I’d bet 50-100 million Americans have it right now.  

 

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

I think short term there will be a trend that way. But I also think that as redder states and rural areas get hit harder, in places that didn't do much in the first place and are pushing to do even less now (see Iowa as a prime example), the deaths will increase and it will start to hit home a little harder. That will hit the GOP-leaning crowd much harder than they are being hit right now. Once a lot more people start knowing someone who died, see their own smaller communities hit by it, read about it in the local papers... they will see it more seriously.

 

As a particularly at-risk person living in a red state...I'm still not ok with dying so that it hits home harder for my former colleagues/neighbors.

[bmags]

8 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

I never said to emulate Sweden.  I just said it looks like it will be the closest thing to a guinea pig the world has.  Real data.  It’s ok to want data.  Data is good.  

But that's not what that graph is showing. People in sweden are not living life as normal as in your guinea pig dream. Despite no government shutdown orders, companies and people have still shut down their lives. Those stats aren't much different from nashville/atlanta with the exception of driving.

So, yeah, re-open and you'll look like Sweden. A still-battered economy where people are still scared to go to restaurants,  bars and their jobs, with more unnecessary death and still slow recovery.

[Balta1701]

7 minutes ago, bmags said:

But that's not what that graph is showing. People in sweden are not living life as normal as in your guinea pig dream. Despite no government shutdown orders, companies and people have still shut down their lives. Those stats aren't much different from nashville/atlanta with the exception of driving.

So, yeah, re-open and you'll look like Sweden. A still-battered economy where people are still scared to go to restaurants,  bars and their jobs, with more unnecessary death and still slow recovery.

The message I wish people would take is:

Look at New Zealand, South Korea, and yes even China. China in particular started off in an absolute s*** situation because they denied it for too long, but they imposed strong controls, strong curfews, and regardless of how bad it was at the worst...after about 8 weeks, they dramatically dropped their case load and now have at most limited transmission.

New Zealand has 0 new cases for 2 days in a row.

There was a clear roadmap for how to do this. We could have limited the damage, if we were a great people anymore we could have had this at least on the downslope by now. The United States has spent what, 7 weeks on this, and we have managed to, at best, level things off. We've had as much time as China took to recover from one of the worst outbreaks, but we have made vastly less progress. Why are we so much worse at this than China? In Italy we had mayors threatening people with flamethrowers if they didn't get indoors, and Italy is now starting to actually reopen with cases under control. Why is it that New Zealand is able to take care of their neighbors, while we're at "The elderly have lived long enough - Dan Patrick" stage? 

We had to do better than we did, and instead we weren't up to the challenge, so now we're just going to see how bad it can get, and if people like me die...well phooey, I should have known better.

[Heads22]

Iowa now up over 10,000 cases, more than well-known smaller midwestern states like Minnesota, Wisconsin, Missouri. Maybe there's a reason Trump is now up only 2 points and Joni Ernst is now only up 1 point in the latest state poll. 

 

Our governor "trusts Iowans to do the right thing" though.

[Dick Allen]

Unfortunately the 2020 baseball season will probably be a victim of the states caving to knuckleheads, and opening up early.

[Dick Allen]

The dumbest thing about this is it seems Trumps ridiculous thought about mainlining Lysol is going to cost  tens of thousands of lives. It ended the task force press "briefings". I guess no one but Trump could run those. And the guidelines got dumped like they never existed as well.

[StrangeSox]

Things are looking better in NYC but worse in the rest of the US:

 

Meanwhile, the White House is explicitly saying that "blue states" shouldn't get any federal money and are relying on 'models' like this:

 

 

If your government is completely incapable of responding to internal or external challenges, how functional is the state?

 

edit: and at the state level:

 

Edited May 5, 2020 by StrangeSox

[pcq]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

As a particularly at-risk person living in a red state...I'm still not ok with dying so that it hits home harder for my former colleagues/neighbors.

It's for the cause of Make America Great Again. We might get a lapel pin. 

[NorthSideSox72]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

As a particularly at-risk person living in a red state...I'm still not ok with dying so that it hits home harder for my former colleagues/neighbors.

Sorry, did you get the impression I said this was in any way OK? It's not. I was just discussing the way I think it is likely to happen.

 

42 minutes ago, Heads22 said:

Iowa now up over 10,000 cases, more than well-known smaller midwestern states like Minnesota, Wisconsin, Missouri. Maybe there's a reason Trump is now up only 2 points and Joni Ernst is now only up 1 point in the latest state poll. 

 

Our governor "trusts Iowans to do the right thing" though.

Iowa continues to be the prime example of what happens next in rural America. It will be ugly.

 

[Balta1701]

Just now, NorthSideSox72 said:

Sorry, did you get the impression I said this was in any way OK? It's not. I was just discussing the way I think it is likely to happen.

If i'm going to be sacrificed for the economy I may as well make a point of it on my way out.

[StrangeSox]

7 minutes ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

Sorry, did you get the impression I said this was in any way OK? It's not. I was just discussing the way I think it is likely to happen.

 

Iowa continues to be the prime example of what happens next in rural America. It will be ugly.

 

GOP is a literal death cult at this point. People working at meat-packing plants aren't even real people according to Wisconsin Supreme Court judges, and this:

 

 

 

They want to march the working class back to work at significant risk of illness or death.

Edited May 5, 2020 by StrangeSox

[Chisoxfn]

4 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

GOP is a literal death cult at this point. People working at meat-packing plants aren't even real people according to Wisconsin Supreme Court judges, and this:

 

 

 

They want to march the working class back to work at significant risk of illness or death.

None of which is even close to being right or okay.  

[StrangeSox]

12 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

None of which is even close to being right or okay.  

It's the path we're heading down at an accelerating pace.

The conservatives on the WI Supreme Court just made very clear that they don't value the life of the working class in the least, and they compared Evers' SAH order to Japanese internment and tyranny. They will be striking down Wisconsin's order, which means that state will be completely "open" soon. People will be forced to choose either their health (as well as the health of their family) or economic destitution as they'll be ineligible for UI. Small Businesses are still going to be in rough shape as they won't be back to the same revenue levels they were at before. State and local payrolls and services are going to be devestated in next year's budgets. Our federal leadership is largely choosing to just wash their hands of any responsibility for responding to this.

We can't come together as a society when one portion doesn't place any value on the lives of the other, but that's where we are.

 

edit: and there's more at stake in the WI than just this single order:

https://www.vox.com/2020/5/5/21246697/republican-lawsuit-wisconsin-stay-at-home-legislature-palm

Quote

Under the legislature’s proposed framework, the state’s health agency would be stripped of its authority to issue broad public health orders like the state’s stay-at-home order, unless it completed a lengthy process that takes two or three weeks at a minimum. Then, the GOP-controlled legislature also seeks the power to “delay or suspend” Palm’s public health order after the state health department finally completes this process.

 

Meanwhile the House of Representatives can't be bothered to meet or figure out remote/proxy voting and the Senate is only interested in confirming more FedSoc judges like the ones on the WI Supreme Court.

Edited May 5, 2020 by StrangeSox