COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[bmags]

19 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

DPH has a good website, you can see daily testing towards the bottom. It's pretty lumpy overall with a weekly pattern in tests done per day. I don't think % positive has varied like that, though.

 

https://www.dph.illinois.gov/covid19/covid19-statistics

 

This is low weekend/Mondays with Tuesday spikes is being seen globally not just Illinois fwiw

I don't think global trends are that helpful in predicting IL. I watch that site daily and thur/friday being bigger testing report days and sundays being undercounted death days are about the only pattern.

If tuesday was catch-up day in IL, you would see a bigger difference between Mondays and Tuesdays than you see below:

Monday Reports IL

May 11th - T: 12441 C 1266 %POS - 10%

May 4th - T:13834 C 2341 %POS - 17%

April 27th - T: 12676 C 1980 %POS - 16%

April 20th - T: 5040 C 1151 %POS - 23%

April 13th - T: 5033 C 1173 %POS - 23%

April 6th - T: 3959 C 1006 %POS - 25%

 

Tuesday Reports IL

5/12 - ???

5/5 - T 13139 C 2122 %POS - 16%

4/28 -  T 14561  C 2219 %POS - 15%

4/21 - T 6639 C 1551 %POS - 23%

4/14 - T 4848 C 1222 %POS - 25%

4/7 -  T 5790 C 1287 %POS - 22%

[Chisoxfn]

What is everyone on here's view around nursing homes.  I had read a couple articles highlighting that ~1/3rd of the US deaths were from assisted living facilities (and in NY I think the # might have been worse).  We all know that certain populations are more at risk and in particular age is one of the big triggers and when you combine age and fact that people in assisted living facilities are not usually in perfect health, you end up with a really at risk population.

How is it that through all of this, the fed and states haven't came up with a much more targeted approach to tackle and aid what is the absolute highest risk portion of our population.  I don't know the answer but from what I've seen from caufield (who has family in this situation) and I'm sure many others on here, it certainly doesn't seem like much effort is being put into the equation.  From a prevention magnitude, shouldn't these facilities be mandated (and be given support) to do much more rigorous cleaning & testing and be given resources for regular testing (I know difficult to do given how many facilities that exist, but it would seem like a wise avenue to invest such funds (given massive risk that exists in these areas).  

[Texsox]

A close friend took her husband from a facility because of the risk and hired a part time nurse. His dementia causes him to be violent at times but so far it's been working out. 

[Chisoxfn]

4 minutes ago, Texsox said:

A close friend took her husband from a facility because of the risk and hired a part time nurse. His dementia causes him to be violent at times but so far it's been working out. 

The hard part is, most people don't have that luxury (as the cost of at home care, especially for someone in that state, can be extensive).  Even than, you are trading one risk for another (but in this case at least it is 1 or 2 health providers vs. an entire facility).  But I know if my dad were in a facility and I had any possible ability to care for him, I would do so (unless I had extreme confidence in the facilities controls).  

[bmags]

19 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

What is everyone on here's view around nursing homes.  I had read a couple articles highlighting that ~1/3rd of the US deaths were from assisted living facilities (and in NY I think the # might have been worse).  We all know that certain populations are more at risk and in particular age is one of the big triggers and when you combine age and fact that people in assisted living facilities are not usually in perfect health, you end up with a really at risk population.

How is it that through all of this, the fed and states haven't came up with a much more targeted approach to tackle and aid what is the absolute highest risk portion of our population.  I don't know the answer but from what I've seen from caufield (who has family in this situation) and I'm sure many others on here, it certainly doesn't seem like much effort is being put into the equation.  From a prevention magnitude, shouldn't these facilities be mandated (and be given support) to do much more rigorous cleaning & testing and be given resources for regular testing (I know difficult to do given how many facilities that exist, but it would seem like a wise avenue to invest such funds (given massive risk that exists in these areas).  

They are a pretty massive population. Ideally you spread them out, pop-up some long term care facilities a la the pop-up ICUs they've done. But they made 3k ICU beds in chicago...and there are 100k people living in long-term assisted care facilities in IL.

I do think it gets to testing. These are people that aren't mobile, so if you are short tests already you likely don't have anywhere near what's needed to just go to every one or ship portable test units and get accurate readings.

It's a tough problem. When some "at home" test units are available it may be better to help identify problem areas earlier and possibly find places where they can move sick patients to while not infecting healthy ones.

 

[Chisoxfn]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

They are a pretty massive population. Ideally you spread them out, pop-up some long term care facilities a la the pop-up ICUs they've done. But they made 3k ICU beds in chicago...and there are 100k people living in long-term assisted care facilities in IL.

I do think it gets to testing. These are people that aren't mobile, so if you are short tests already you likely don't have anywhere near what's needed to just go to every one or ship portable test units and get accurate readings.

It's a tough problem. When some "at home" test units are available it may be better to help identify problem areas earlier and possibly find places where they can move sick patients to while not infecting healthy ones.

 

It isn't easy - But there is a need to massively test those facilities, so you know what you are doing with. If a facility has no one with the virus, than you need regular monitoring of all the patients (and nurses) to ensure it stays that way and if there is a blip, you have an immediate plan to shift and contain (for the greater good).  And for those facilities who have issues - than they need to tackle them in as proactive and aggressive of a manner as possible.  

Than again I don't get the hypocry from the White House. They are finally instituting what everyone has been saying but only for them. If it is what is needed to keep them safe, shouldn't we be doing it for the general population. By the way, the big essential factories where it is difficult to social distance and get the job done...well those places of business need to be GOING ABOVE AND BEYOND on everything they can control. Daily temperature checks, regular testing of employees, etc.  Again this would be a higher risk area given the close nature of the work being done and thus a higher risk for an outbreak.  Tackle and monitor accordingly.  

We can't use a one size fits all approach. This has to be a targeted approach across many avenues and the response thus far has been pathetic. Testing the entire population may just be too hard because of our size (I would argue anything is doable in this country...anything....we just need to ensure it has the right priority and focus).  But if you can't do that...test smart and be smart. Ensure targeted extreme measures where appropriate and than good homogeneous population and testing so you have good views of your more generically exposed population.  

[southsider2k5]

42 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

What is everyone on here's view around nursing homes.  I had read a couple articles highlighting that ~1/3rd of the US deaths were from assisted living facilities (and in NY I think the # might have been worse).  We all know that certain populations are more at risk and in particular age is one of the big triggers and when you combine age and fact that people in assisted living facilities are not usually in perfect health, you end up with a really at risk population.

How is it that through all of this, the fed and states haven't came up with a much more targeted approach to tackle and aid what is the absolute highest risk portion of our population.  I don't know the answer but from what I've seen from caufield (who has family in this situation) and I'm sure many others on here, it certainly doesn't seem like much effort is being put into the equation.  From a prevention magnitude, shouldn't these facilities be mandated (and be given support) to do much more rigorous cleaning & testing and be given resources for regular testing (I know difficult to do given how many facilities that exist, but it would seem like a wise avenue to invest such funds (given massive risk that exists in these areas).  

You have seen the same with prisons. The lesson is that the more people you shove into small spaces, the worse the outbreaks will be.

[bmags]

1 minute ago, Chisoxfn said:

It isn't easy - But there is a need to massively test those facilities, so you know what you are doing with. If a facility has no one with the virus, than you need regular monitoring of all the patients (and nurses) to ensure it stays that way and if there is a blip, you have an immediate plan to shift and contain (for the greater good).  And for those facilities who have issues - than they need to tackle them in as proactive and aggressive of a manner as possible.  

Than again I don't get the hypocry from the White House. They are finally instituting what everyone has been saying but only for them. If it is what is needed to keep them safe, shouldn't we be doing it for the general population. By the way, the big essential factories where it is difficult to social distance and get the job done...well those places of business need to be GOING ABOVE AND BEYOND on everything they can control. Daily temperature checks, regular testing of employees, etc.  Again this would be a higher risk area given the close nature of the work being done and thus a higher risk for an outbreak.  Tackle and monitor accordingly.  

We can't use a one size fits all approach. This has to be a targeted approach across many avenues and the response thus far has been pathetic. Testing the entire population may just be too hard because of our size (I would argue anything is doable in this country...anything....we just need to ensure it has the right priority and focus).  But if you can't do that...test smart and be smart. Ensure targeted extreme measures where appropriate and than good homogeneous population and testing so you have good views of your more generically exposed population.  

Yes I do think there has been a poor attempt to solve clear problem areas while everyone has been sheltered down. 

There have been so many pressing needs though, first and foremost the month long fight just to get appropriate amounts of PPE, then appropriate levels of testing. They are just now getting to next protocols and now the logistics of nursing homes specifically are enormous.

But ideally you at least get rapid tests to these facilities with enough supplies to do the testing you describe. But there still needs to be a backup for when the virus gets in and then there's a lot of difficult contingencies. Those places are built with the model of care being affordable through it being in a concentrated area, you separate that and you will need to find more nurses and help. 

It's tough.

[Balta1701]

 

55 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

It isn't easy - But there is a need to massively test those facilities, so you know what you are doing with. If a facility has no one with the virus, than you need regular monitoring of all the patients (and nurses) to ensure it stays that way and if there is a blip, you have an immediate plan to shift and contain (for the greater good).  And for those facilities who have issues - than they need to tackle them in as proactive and aggressive of a manner as possible.  

Than again I don't get the hypocry from the White House. They are finally instituting what everyone has been saying but only for them. If it is what is needed to keep them safe, shouldn't we be doing it for the general population. By the way, the big essential factories where it is difficult to social distance and get the job done...well those places of business need to be GOING ABOVE AND BEYOND on everything they can control. Daily temperature checks, regular testing of employees, etc.  Again this would be a higher risk area given the close nature of the work being done and thus a higher risk for an outbreak.  Tackle and monitor accordingly.  

We can't use a one size fits all approach. This has to be a targeted approach across many avenues and the response thus far has been pathetic. Testing the entire population may just be too hard because of our size (I would argue anything is doable in this country...anything....we just need to ensure it has the right priority and focus).  But if you can't do that...test smart and be smart. Ensure targeted extreme measures where appropriate and than good homogeneous population and testing so you have good views of your more generically exposed population.  

When you have hundreds of thousands of untracked cases nationwide, there's no such thing as a targeted approach. You could do a targeted approach if you got the number of cases down to manageable, but as you said above, our society couldn't handle that.

[Balta1701]

3 hours ago, Chisoxfn said:

I just know my wifes work is supposedly sending everyone back to the office last week of May / 1st week of June (with no real changes in precautions).  I'm to the point where I'm going to tell her to quit because I think what they are doing is absurd (and because we have a child-care need that they are ignoring and currently no childcare is available for us - not that I would send my kids aggressively before it would be safe).  She should be able to work from home and continue to work from home (as she can effectively work remote and I believe in the cases we can effectively work remotely, we should be having people do exactly that).  I think every company that can should be doing that (as it will help ensure for those jobs who can't that we are creating paths for them to get back to work faster and in a more sustained environment).  And it means we can prioritize "child care" normalization for those who are essential 1st (i.e., 1st line responders and people whose total economic livelihood depends on them being in a retail setting).  

For example, I am in a similar situation as her (but obviously work at a different company) and I will be WFH through at least September.  I have told people who work for me who have childcare / elderly care issues during these times that those items will be prioritized and if need be, I'll support WFH longer (what do I care where the work is done as long as it is done and done right). I expect them to do their job and those expectations don't change but I certainly am going to give them the flexibility to handle key family situations (as that is 1st priority).  I'm glad I'm not put in a position where my organizations view(s) around people and treatment in this scenario don't align with my personal views as it would put me in a tough position (and for those who haven't figured it out by now, I'm not a shy individual when it comes to my opinion - even when it differs from the majority).  

PS: I absolutely hate working from home and don't like the idea of doing it for another 3 months while juggling everything else. I would much rather be at the office today, etc, as to accomplish what i need to on a daily basis, it takes me more time now than it did, but you know what, I'll live with it cause I'm lucky to have a job (*knock on wood*) and its a small price relative to what others are actually going through.  I know one day things will get back to normal and if I did what I could to ensure that "normal" comes sooner vs. later and with the least amount of aggregate pain, than I can look at myself in the mirror with a straight face (and better yet be proud of how I've treated those indirectly dependent on me (i.e., my team).  

Think about people with kids. Are we going to put 2000 kids into each school in the fall, especially when we know that bathrooms, small rooms are excellent places for transmission? Even if you clean things, you're going to have transmission all over the place. Even if you ignore the new version of SIDS hitting recently infected kids in New York state these days, you're simulating the Korean clubs pretty readily. Then the teachers get infected and 1/4 of them are out of commission for a month, how does that school run? And you're a parent right, do your kids ever get you sick? 

So, are we going to leave schools from home in the fall? How could society function with that? People can't leave home because they have to care for their kids with the schools closed, but if the schools are open then you have every one of them probably becoming a rapid transmission location.

[StrangeSox]

 

[greg775]

6 hours ago, Texsox said:

A friend of mine in Hawaii posted a story of a honeymoon couple there that kept telling the hotel manager they were allowed to go out. They were arrested for ignoring the self-quarantine order. 

You mean to tell me if you go to Maui, you must first stay in the hotel 14 days then you can vacation? What nut would agree to that? Even "cheap" hotels in Maui are 160 a night.

[greg775]

This Illinois governor seems to be a dictator. I love Oak Brook fighting back. Anyhow, greg's question:

Let's say MLB allows baseball starting July 1. The conservative Illinois governor won't allow activity in Comiskey or Wrigley. So think of the publicity he's going to get in shutting down MLB  in Chicago. Those who laud him will push him for a presidential run someday. What a leader!! Those who hate him ... Sox and Cubs shut down cause of this dictatorish guy.

[Kyyle23]

We should definitely all fight back against someone who wants you to survive.  

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Kyyle23 said:

We should definitely all fight back against someone who wants you to survive.  

In Washington state, they had a hotline where people could call in to report businesses violating the quarantine procedures there. A public records request gave the contact information of people who had reported various businesses, and now you can read the threats those individuals have gotten. https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-05-10/far-right-coronavirus-harassment

[StrangeSox]

We can thank Republican Matt Gaetz's fabricated propaganda for this

 

 

Looks like you're getting tested again, caulfield

 

Edited May 12, 2020 by StrangeSox

[Dick Allen]

While Fox News personalities tell their viewers to be patriots and go back to work, their studios will be closed and they will be working from home for the foreseeable future. 

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, StrangeSox said:

We can thank Republican Matt Gaetz's fabricated propaganda for this

 

 

Looks like you're getting tested again, caulfield

 

Yeah, we were just discussing this...coworker in France and one in UK picked it up on Reuters and BBC.

So the question is how long does a test last?   We tested Thursday to return this week.    So...?

Every day?  Every week?  Who pays?   How realistic is that for a city of ten million plus when the United States can’t even do the test once for 10% of the entire population?

We did nucleic acid and pharyngeal (throat) swabs...same tests again?   Nose swabs?   Antibody tests?

It’s supposed to be district by district, and over the next 10-14 days.     Wife had one set of tests a couple weeks after going back to work, hasn’t been tested again, pretty sure she went back March 30th so that’s now going on six weeks back at work with only being tested once.

 

With nursing or assisted living centers, the cost for a “pretty good one” in Iowa is around $4500, and that’s with discount down from the $4800-5000 range, supposedly.  What I worry about is when my mom needs full time, 24 hours per day care.  The cost for that is around $6500-8000 per month, and that’s in one of the cheaper or more reasonable states.  She has dementia/Alzheimer’s, mild diabetes and elevated cholesterol, but still gets around with a walker and has adjusted well and socializes a lot more after a rough first six months of transition.  She lived on her own and drove a car up until age 89-90, so it was a momentous change for someone both stubborn and who valued her independence and privacy...her way of life ever since my father died about twenty years ago.   All things considered, it would certainly be cheaper if she was at home (and I wasn’t in China)...but the old house has stairs/split level and her environment now is so much safer in terms of avoiding a fall. 

[NWINFan]

1 hour ago, Dick Allen said:

While Fox News personalities tell their viewers to be patriots and go back to work, their studios will be closed and they will be working from home for the foreseeable future. 

Fox News has no credibility at this point, not that they ever did. It is just worse now. And their view of patriotism is on the strange side. To go along with this, their personalities make millions in their safety while they tell every day working people to expose themselves to a deadly virus.

[NorthSideSox72]

Pritzker's news release yesterday was some really good news, for those who missed it. They are using six measures to decide readiness for moving to next phases of re-opening, and the state is split into five regions. All but one region are "in the green", meaning on track to go to Phase 3 (the next phase), by May 27th when the current order expires. The one region not there, Northeast, is "in the green" on five measures, and the sixth (positivity rate of tests) they are this/close to getting there and still can before we are at the date. So it looks like most or all regions will be seeing Phase 3 within a couple weeks.

Strange thing though - when I went paging through my social media feeds this morning, I see all these complaints about JB moving the goalposts, keeping people prisoner, all that stuff. I couldn't figure out what they meant until I realized they are thinking of the news that the peak is moving out to June, and somehow in their minds that meant waiting longer to open up. Basically, people aren't understanding how all this works. The moving out of the peak is actually a very GOOD thing, and the continued flattening is why we are looking at getting open SOONER. But people are so reactionary now, we get yelling and screaming about some nonsense.

I really just wish people would read things all the way through, take a deep breath, and think for a few minutes before spouting off.

 

[caulfield12]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/texas-salon-owner-admits-view-171044053.html
 

Saying that she thinks the PPP money is from “one of the loans,” Shelly Luther went on to claim that she doesn’t “know how I’m supposed to spend it,” adding that she is aware that there are a number of regulations and guidelines that come with the funds.

“I didn’t want to put myself in deeper debt by spending it the wrong way, you know, and also having to close the salon,” Luther said. “So until I got further instruction on that, I didn’t want to spend it.”

“And giving me $18,000 to spend when my stylists aren’t actual employees of mine, they’re actually subleasing,” she concluded. “So I wasn’t sure if I was even able to give them any of that money as employees because I don’t pay them.”

Besides the widespread adulation she received from the right over her defiance of stay-at-home orders, which included praise from President Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) flying in for a haircut at her salon, Luther was also the beneficiary of a GoFundMe campaign that raised more than $500,000 on her behalf.

 

Edited May 12, 2020 by caulfield12

[turnin' two]

4 minutes ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

Pritzker's news release yesterday was some really good news, for those who missed it. They are using six measures to decide readiness for moving to next phases of re-opening, and the state is split into five regions. All but one region are "in the green", meaning on track to go to Phase 3 (the next phase), by May 27th when the current order expires. The one region not there, Northeast, is "in the green" on five measures, and the sixth (positivity rate of tests) they are this/close to getting there and still can before we are at the date. So it looks like most or all regions will be seeing Phase 3 within a couple weeks.

Strange thing though - when I went paging through my social media feeds this morning, I see all these complaints about JB moving the goalposts, keeping people prisoner, all that stuff. I couldn't figure out what they meant until I realized they are thinking of the news that the peak is moving out to June, and somehow in their minds that meant waiting longer to open up. Basically, people aren't understanding how all this works. The moving out of the peak is actually a very GOOD thing, and the continued flattening is why we are looking at getting open SOONER. But people are so reactionary now, we get yelling and screaming about some nonsense.

I really just wish people would read things all the way through, take a deep breath, and think for a few minutes before spouting off.

 

I think this is also a function of getting news from twitter/ social media.  All people do is look at the headline and don't try to read more or try to understand what is happening.  

[pcq]

MLB Fanatics official team masks are selling $25 for a three-pack. 

[hogan873]

30 minutes ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

Pritzker's news release yesterday was some really good news, for those who missed it. They are using six measures to decide readiness for moving to next phases of re-opening, and the state is split into five regions. All but one region are "in the green", meaning on track to go to Phase 3 (the next phase), by May 27th when the current order expires. The one region not there, Northeast, is "in the green" on five measures, and the sixth (positivity rate of tests) they are this/close to getting there and still can before we are at the date. So it looks like most or all regions will be seeing Phase 3 within a couple weeks.

Strange thing though - when I went paging through my social media feeds this morning, I see all these complaints about JB moving the goalposts, keeping people prisoner, all that stuff. I couldn't figure out what they meant until I realized they are thinking of the news that the peak is moving out to June, and somehow in their minds that meant waiting longer to open up. Basically, people aren't understanding how all this works. The moving out of the peak is actually a very GOOD thing, and the continued flattening is why we are looking at getting open SOONER. But people are so reactionary now, we get yelling and screaming about some nonsense.

I really just wish people would read things all the way through, take a deep breath, and think for a few minutes before spouting off.

 

Yeah, all I've seen regarding his release was about the peak being moved to June.  No mention of the fact that almost the entire state (and probably the entire state soon enough) is ready to be moved to Phase 3 by the end of the month.  What most people don't understand, or refuse to understand more likely, is that the peak may be moved out but it's also much lower than it would have been had measures not been taken.  The positivity rate has been declining, and that's excellent news especially considering the number of tests increasing as they are.

[Texsox]

11 hours ago, greg775 said:

You mean to tell me if you go to Maui, you must first stay in the hotel 14 days then you can vacation? What nut would agree to that? Even "cheap" hotels in Maui are 160 a night.

Tell 775 that's what Tex means to tell y'all. Tex believes that folks that are planning on spending a month or more on that island paradise may opt to spend a couple weeks in self quarantine. Tex is also thinking that there are worse places to spend two weeks naked eating room service. All you need is to get yourself a little Texas tornado if y'all get my drift.