COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[StrangeSox]

6 minutes ago, Texsox said:

This isn't a normal situation. I believe it requires a more detailed analysis. I've seen stats reported as  "X related deaths" where X stands for the item being discussed (poverty, alcohol, flu, smoking, etc). It could also lead to more deaths being counted because it would allow doctors to place those deaths on the fence as "related" instead of presuming they should not count it as a Covid death. 

there is one reason the White House is pushing for this change and it isn't for a more detailed analysis.

Edited May 13, 2020 by StrangeSox

[Jerksticks]

8 minutes ago, Texsox said:

One aspect is currently they are "presuming". Immediately we have a chance of inaccurate data being used. Those should, at a minimum, be split off. If you have the virus, but would have survived, but died from an unrelated event, is that really a virus death? So now we have a possible third column, virus influenced death. That could be from the obviously not a factor like dying from car accident while infected or probably influenced like dying of pneumonia while infected. I think we can do better than having thousands of doctors all presuming. 

Exactly.  The complete lack of actionable data is really frustrating.
 

And then you have all the hospitals themselves on life support because they are businesses too, hemorrhaging money because they are mostly empty and furloughing staff like crazy.  
 

Not saying they are all doing it, but checking the COVID box and grabbing all the extra money isn’t THAT crazy of a leap to make.  
 

These are messed up times. 

[StrangeSox]

That's conspiracy nonsense. Hospitals are not falsely coding covid deaths.

Edited May 13, 2020 by StrangeSox

[southsider2k5]

27 minutes ago, Texsox said:

One aspect is currently they are "presuming". Immediately we have a chance of inaccurate data being used. Those should, at a minimum, be split off. If you have the virus, but would have survived, but died from an unrelated event, is that really a virus death? So now we have a possible third column, virus influenced death. That could be from the obviously not a factor like dying from car accident while infected or probably influenced like dying of pneumonia while infected. I think we can do better than having thousands of doctors all presuming. 

Except all indications are that even with this style we are using now, we have a large spike in unexplained deaths during this time period.

[southsider2k5]

11 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

there is one reason the White House is pushing for this change and it isn't for a more detailed analysis.

Like I said, step one is to obscure statistical reporting.  And right on cue, here is the White House leading the way.

[southsider2k5]

6 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

Exactly.  The complete lack of actionable data is really frustrating.
 

And then you have all the hospitals themselves on life support because they are businesses too, hemorrhaging money because they are mostly empty and furloughing staff like crazy.  
 

Not saying they are all doing it, but checking the COVID box and grabbing all the extra money isn’t THAT crazy of a leap to make.  
 

These are messed up times. 

You do realize that if there was massive Medicade fraud going on, the federal government would be looking to sue the shit out of the hospitals and claw back that money.

[Quin]

7 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

Exactly.  The complete lack of actionable data is really frustrating.
 

And then you have all the hospitals themselves on life support because they are businesses too, hemorrhaging money because they are mostly empty and furloughing staff like crazy.  
 

Not saying they are all doing it, but checking the COVID box and grabbing all the extra money isn’t THAT crazy of a leap to make.  
 

These are messed up times. 

Dude, what the hell?

[Texsox]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

Except all indications are that even with this style we are using now, we have a large spike in unexplained deaths during this time period.

Fear, isolation, loneliness, depression, social distancing, stress all may contribute to deaths. You don't have to be infected to be affected. 

[Texsox]

14 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

there is one reason the White House is pushing for this change and it isn't for a more detailed analysis.

There are always unseen consequences. Not everything the White House desires works out like they want it to. 

[Dick Allen]

I just don't get disrespecting the two months you have had to live like this to piss it away and go on like nothing happened. You just blew all sacrifice you have just made, and will have to do again. 

Tucker Carlson is really going at Fauci. His days must be numbered.

[southsider2k5]

16 minutes ago, Texsox said:

Fear, isolation, loneliness, depression, social distancing, stress all may contribute to deaths. You don't have to be infected to be affected. 

Not at the rate we are seeing. 

[turnin' two]

12 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Our city opened up dog parks today but they would like the dogs to follow social distancing recommendations.

i am not making this up.

That's the best.  

[StrangeSox]

24 minutes ago, Texsox said:

There are always unseen consequences. Not everything the White House desires works out like they want it to. 

The current way things are being counted is how health experts and departments around the world have counted deaths in previous epidemics and how they're counting this pandemic.

Just as with previous epidemics, we won't know the real toll until in-depth studies are done a few years down the road. That's how we arrive at things like "12k deaths from swine flu," after the fact epidemiological studies and surveys which are themselves estimates rather than just hard counts of death certificates.

If the WH gets their way, we're going to see the media mainly reference the politically suppressed "official" death counts that don't include any of the nuance you're mentioning. It'll just be "oh only 80k people ever died, no big deal, everything else is a conspiracy." You've already seen it pop up in this thread today!

It's not the medical experts pushing for this change for more detailed information. It's an extremely political White House doing it for very obvious reasons. Don't make excuses for them.

[Chisoxfn]

34 minutes ago, Texsox said:

Fear, isolation, loneliness, depression, social distancing, stress all may contribute to deaths. You don't have to be infected to be affected. 

It is the counter to this. How many more people are becoming addicted to opiods or alochol or anything else during this time. How many more people are becoming more obsese or increasing chances of diabetes, etc.  How much more mental illness and impacts of elevated stress for those people who have lost their jobs and or are stressing job loss. Maybe it is nothing, maybe it is "Yuuuge". I don't know, but someone should be understanding all of those dynamics and knowing what the impacts (good and bad) are to the decisions that are being made.  

[Texsox]

I'm not convinced the media would do that. In fact I'm certain they would not. And as you point out we're already working with estimates right now, we won't know the actual total for years. So how official is the official count?

I believe we can learn from past pandemics and improve our responses and reporting down the road. I believe a "that's the way we've always done it" attitude can be dangerous. Technology has gotten a bit better since the Spanish Flu and other pandemics. But I've never been accused of being a conservative and wanting to keep things like they have always been. 

[Chisoxfn]

25 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

I just don't get disrespecting the two months you have had to live like this to piss it away and go on like nothing happened. You just blew all sacrifice you have just made, and will have to do again. 

Tucker Carlson is really going at Fauci. His days must be numbered.

I simply don't understand why we don't require masks to be worn. Period.  You are close to people - Wear a mask.  And I hate wearing the mask, in fact, it is probably the thing that bothers me the most, because with glasses, I walk around my local costco (getting my full supply of groceries for family + my mom) and literally am walking around not able to see half the time (thankfully I know the store).  But whatever - In grand scheme, my glasses being fogged is a small price to pay for the fact that by wearing the mask, I dramatically reduce the fact that I get anyone else infected (in the case I am asymptomatic carrier). 

[Texsox]

2 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

It is the counter to this. How many more people are becoming addicted to opiods or alochol or anything else during this time. How many more people are becoming more obsese or increasing chances of diabetes, etc.  How much more mental illness and impacts of elevated stress for those people who have lost their jobs and or are stressing job loss. Maybe it is nothing, maybe it is "Yuuuge". I don't know, but someone should be understanding all of those dynamics and knowing what the impacts (good and bad) are to the decisions that are being made.  

I posted a link about three hours ago to just that. A desire to get ahead of the pending mental health crisis. Good morning there on the west coast. 

[Chisoxfn]

7 minutes ago, Texsox said:

I posted a link about three hours ago to just that. A desire to get ahead of the pending mental health crisis. Good morning there on the west coast. 

Yeah - My post quoted you but I was really building off what you were talking about (so not really a "counter" to you...more of a general counter).  Like I have said on here all along, there is no perfect choice and those making these decisions have to consistently be learning from the information as it comes in and pivoting on their decisions.   I tell people all the time (and I live in a data world and all I do for a living is enable data driven decision making), that with just limited info, I can make data tell any story I want.  There is a power with data but also a responsibility that comes with data and ensuring you have a 360 view of the choices you are making (i.e., a complete picture to enable the best decision knowing the relevant risks and counters).  

[bmags]

7 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

I simply don't understand why we don't require masks to be worn. Period.  You are close to people - Wear a mask.  And I hate wearing the mask, in fact, it is probably the thing that bothers me the most, because with glasses, I walk around my local costco (getting my full supply of groceries for family + my mom) and literally am walking around not able to see half the time (thankfully I know the store).  But whatever - In grand scheme, my glasses being fogged is a small price to pay for the fact that by wearing the mask, I dramatically reduce the fact that I get anyone else infected (in the case I am asymptomatic carrier). 

Have you tried putting shaving cream on the classes and wiping em off? It’s not crystal clear but it’s better it does prevent a good amount of fogging

[Dick Allen]

13 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

The current way things are being counted is how health experts and departments around the world have counted deaths in previous epidemics and how they're counting this pandemic.

Just as with previous epidemics, we won't know the real toll until in-depth studies are done a few years down the road. That's how we arrive at things like "12k deaths from swine flu," after the fact epidemiological studies and surveys which are themselves estimates rather than just hard counts of death certificates.

If the WH gets their way, we're going to see the media mainly reference the politically suppressed "official" death counts that don't include any of the nuance you're mentioning. It'll just be "oh only 80k people ever died, no big deal, everything else is a conspiracy." You've already seen it pop up in this thread today!

It's not the medical experts pushing for this change for more detailed information. It's an extremely political White House doing it for very obvious reasons. Don't make excuses for them.

Trump has his boy in FL helping him out with the count.  If the administration wants business as usual, they should operate the same way. The same amount of testing as the rest of us. Trump goes back to his rallies, no steps taken, and have a ball. The problem is they know if they do that, there is a decent chance Nancy Pelosi will be President in the next couple of months. If Tucker Carlson thinks working from home is crazy, he should grab his crew and go back to the office.  This entire thing is about where the stock market (which is now totally disconnected from main street America) is around election day. That is what is making these people crazy.

[Chisoxfn]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

Have you tried putting shaving cream on the classes and wiping em off? It’s not crystal clear but it’s better it does prevent a good amount of fogging

Nope - But I will try this next time. Thanks B! 

[Bob Sacamano]

1 hour ago, StrangeSox said:

That's conspiracy nonsense. Hospitals are not falsely coding covid deaths.

According to everyone I know who works in a hospital, this isn't true.

You can be on the brink of death from a long battle with cancer but if you test positive for COVID, it's a COVID death.

Edited May 13, 2020 by soxfan2014

[Jerksticks]

22 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

Yeah - My post quoted you but I was really building off what you were talking about (so not really a "counter" to you...more of a general counter).  Like I have said on here all along, there is no perfect choice and those making these decisions have to consistently be learning from the information as it comes in and pivoting on their decisions.   I tell people all the time (and I live in a data world and all I do for a living is enable data driven decision making), that with just limited info, I can make data tell any story I want.  There is a power with data but also a responsibility that comes with data and ensuring you have a 360 view of the choices you are making (i.e., a complete picture to enable the best decision knowing the relevant risks and counters).  

Yes yes yes yes.  Dude the power of this incomplete data is truly remarkable.  This is what I’ve been saying the whole time.  We don’t know anything.  
 

May 13th and we still have absolutely no idea how many people have the virus.  We can’t even make educated guesses yet.  All we can do is guess based on the number of people who have been sick enough to get tested.  That’s it.  Is that a chunk of the iceberg or just the Vince Vaughn tip?  Who knows.  
 

But for some reason we have mortality rates?  Like wtf is that?  
 

All we know is that it is killing old people and black people disproportionately and it sucks.  I’m not sure what else we really KNOW. 
 

 

[Chisoxfn]

1 minute ago, Jerksticks said:

Yes yes yes yes.  Dude the power of this incomplete data is truly remarkable.  This is what I’ve been saying the whole time.  We don’t know anything.  
 

May 13th and we still have absolutely no idea how many people have the virus.  We can’t even make educated guesses yet.  All we can do is guess based on the number of people who have been sick enough to get tested.  That’s it.  Is that a chunk of the iceberg or just the Vince Vaughn tip?  Who knows.  
 

But for some reason we have mortality rates?  Like wtf is that?  
 

All we know is that it is killing old people and black people disproportionately and it sucks.  I’m not sure what else we really KNOW. 
 

 

I will point out - while there are data gaps, I know 60K+ in additional deaths, despite social distancing, tells you that COVID is serious (and worse than a flu).  What I think there are major challenges on is how much more severe (10 times worse; 100 times worse; 5 times worse).  I also know that this virus seems to be a superbug where it can massively infect certain areas, so if a high risk area is all together and one person has it, it can spell absolute doom (i.e., a nursing home or say a weekly church group full of more elderly individuals).  So to me, the data is clear that we need to act on this.  How you act and what response is taken and how long different responses are needed, its tough to say, and I can't pretend to know the data that is driving the various decisions and what the net cost is to the different decisions.  

[Heads22]

Iowa opens back up on the 15th.