COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[bmags]

High school announced it will close thru spring break.

likely we’ll hear district elementary schools will follow suit (oak park).

 

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, The Beast said:

Age will catch up to people like him. Eventually, maybe term limits will stop fossils that are assholes just like him.

That would be fine, but you still have the two main Dem candidates and President Trump as individuals in their 70’s (72/77/78.)

One would hope that more leaders would exist in that 45-55 year “prime” for presidents, but it’s just not happening for myriad reasons.  As someone right at the midpoint, it’s quite an embarrassment for Generation X.  

(Technically, Obama was at the end of the Baby Boom generation by a couple of years.)

[Jerksticks]

maybe not having tests is on purpose.  Plus having expensive health care...maybe that’s the best defense?

 

go down that rabbit hole for sec. 

[Jack Parkman]

9 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

maybe not having tests is on purpose.  Plus having expensive health care...maybe that’s the best defense?

 

go down that rabbit hole for sec. 

It's exactly the opposite. The only reason why it isn't much worse here(in terms of #infected) already is because of the lack of testing and lack of access to healthcare. If the US would have had its shit together, we'd probably have been where we are now a week ago. 

They have drive-thru testing in CO and that should be model nation wide.  Only go to the hospital if you're gasping for air/running an abnormally high fever, or have another medical related emergency. 

It might not be feasible but if they get enough kits going, anyone school age or older should get tested. 

Edited March 13, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[Jerksticks]

12 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

It's exactly the opposite. The only reason why it isn't much worse here(in terms of #infected) already is because of the lack of testing and lack of access to healthcare. If the US would have had its shit together, we'd probably have been where we are now a week ago. 

They have drive-thru testing in CO and that should be model nation wide.  Only go to the hospital if you're gasping for air/running an abnormally high fever, or have another medical related emergency. 

It might not be feasible but if they get enough kits going, anyone school age or older should get tested. 

I just don’t think any of this is as simple as “America is dropping the ball”.   No way.  We knew about in December. It was flying all over the world for 2 months.  Our smart people knew that.  Trump isn’t an idiot.  I feel like this is all an act.  
 

Not testing seems to be our strategy so I’m trying to figure out why.  

[The Beast]

22 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

That would be fine, but you still have the two main Dem candidates and President Trump as individuals in their 70’s (72/77/78.)

One would hope that more leaders would exist in that 45-55 year “prime” for presidents, but it’s just not happening for myriad reasons.  As someone right at the midpoint, it’s quite an embarrassment for Generation X.  

(Technically, Obama was at the end of the Baby Boom generation by a couple of years.)

Eventually the new(er) generation will take hold. I’m aware of the fact that old men will win this election, but I am confident the tide will shift as demographics shift in 2024.

[Jack Parkman]

7 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

I just don’t think any of this is as simple as “America is dropping the ball”.   No way.  We knew about in December. It was flying all over the world for 2 months.  Our smart people knew that.  Trump isn’t an idiot.  I feel like this is all an act.  
 

Not testing seems to be our strategy so I’m trying to figure out why.  

The only explanation is that he's either an idiot or a malignant narcissist. Take your pick on what's worse. 

The only reason why he's not testing more people is because the only thing he cares about is getting re-elected in November. This is a political decision, not a best interest in public health one. 

Apologies to the mods if we're still under a politics ban, and I'll drop it and delete this message if we are. 

Fellow posters, please don't quote this post until I get the goahead from the mods that it's ok to talk politics. 

Edited March 13, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[The Beast]

8 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

The only explanation is that he's either an idiot or a malignant narcissist. Take your pick on what's worse. 

The only reason why he's not testing more people is because the only thing he cares about is getting re-elected in November. This is a political decision, not a best interest in public health one. 

Apologies to the mods if we're still under a politics ban, and I'll drop it and delete this message if we are. 

Fellow posters, please don't quote this post until I get the goahead from the mods that it's ok to talk politics. 

I’m not a moderator but relax. The discourse has been civil, relevant and interesting. Health, politics, foreign policy and the economy - all of these factors are germane to the discussion.

[T R U]

11 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

The only explanation is that he's either an idiot or a malignant narcissist. Take your pick on what's worse. 

The only reason why he's not testing more people is because the only thing he cares about is getting re-elected in November. This is a political decision, not a best interest in public health one. 

Apologies to the mods if we're still under a politics ban, and I'll drop it and delete this message if we are. 

Fellow posters, please don't quote this post until I get the goahead from the mods that it's ok to talk politics. 

You’re not the boss of me

[The Beast]

5 minutes ago, T R U said:

You’re not the boss of me

https://youtu.be/x5Za8HggalY

[caulfield12]

19 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

I just don’t think any of this is as simple as “America is dropping the ball”.   No way.  We knew about in December. It was flying all over the world for 2 months.  Our smart people knew that.  Trump isn’t an idiot.  I feel like this is all an act.  
 

Not testing seems to be our strategy so I’m trying to figure out why.  

Well, doing the ONE thing that will quickly remove public confidence seems to be ill-advised...which is NOT testing.  The ability to mitigate the effect comes directly from direct knowledge of where the clusters are most heavily concentrated.

South Korea, Singapore and HK have done the opposite.  And are coming out on the other side now.

It was just as easy to track here as it rose exponentially, as when the curve finally started to flatten.

 

And they are now starting to do drive up or immediate test results in NYC, Colorado and University of Washington...no thanks to the CDC and massive cutbacks in local public health departments.

 

[chitownsportsfan]

gotta kinda laugh at the irony, at least if you're under 60.  you got a bunch of dinos running, not just for prez but also in congress and worldwide, and here comes the virus!

every worldwide industry affected.  mount everest is officially closed and it's prime climbing season. mother nature is taking some scalps it appears.  flatten the curve and hopefully we can come back wiser in 3-4 months in the US.

here in seattle stores are still stocked and everything, I mean, it's not that bad and people are taking precautions.

Edited March 13, 2020 by chitownsportsfan

[Jerksticks]

It’s just strange.  So my personal experience is my family has had back to back flu over the course of the last month- caught it from sister in law end of January.  Wife and young kid going through it again right now, but it’s different.  I never get sick, like ever and I had it 3 or so weeks ago for a few days.  
 

And then I got 2 customers the last few days calling us saying “hey, my wife/husband is sick but we called and don’t qualify for a test so we understand if you don’t want to send anybody to work over here for a while.”  

And I’m in a pretty big popular city in America that has yet to have a single confirmed case in the county or surrounding counties.  Not 1.  But yet people have been flying around the world with corona for a couple of months, through our international airport.  If it’s as infectious as claimed, then the amount of infected in my city isn’t zero but probably tens of thousands minimum, including myself and my family.  I personally think hundreds of thousands in my city have it and maybe the actual percentage that even show symptoms is waaaay lower than thought.  
 

I dunno.  Just trying to think it through

[chitownsportsfan]

tens of thousands probably have it because the lead time on symptoms is in healthy young people 3-10 days.   this virus is roughly 10 times more fatal than the flu overall and kills (best guess) about 10% of people over 70.  Healthy young people 4 in 2000 cases will die. That still kinda sucks.  

so yea we need to make sure this infects 50-70 million and not 150.  So far people seem to realize that.

[caulfield12]

9 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

tens of thousands probably have it because the lead time on symptoms is in healthy young people 3-10 days.   this virus is roughly 10 times more fatal than the flu overall and kills (best guess) about 10% of people over 70.  Healthy young people 4 in 2000 cases will die. That still kinda sucks.  

so yea we need to make sure this infects 50-70 million and not 150.  So far people seem to realize that.

And that’s going by a roughly 1% mortality rate, not 3-4% like here in China, or 5-6% like we’re seeing in Italy with a much older population.  Have a feeling that’s another reason Japan isn’t testing or doesn’t want to publish...one of the oldest populations in the world and trying to preserve viability of the Olympics.

Fwiw, feel sorry for Illinois basketball fans...you have to wait this long for a tourney appearance, and then, poof!  It’s gone.   

[Jack Parkman]

Have to start work Monday downtown Chicago. There is no legit way for me to get there without taking the Metra.
I've been waiting 5 weeks to start this job, but like I said I have ppl that I live with that are at higher risk from this thing. I could drive, but then I have to pay downtown parking rates which I can't afford and I'm supposed to go 5 days a week for 3 weeks. How do I get this done without endangering my family?

I'm beyond shocked that they haven't gone remote yet. I wasn't expecting to have to start work until this whole thing blew over.

This is an IT company. I'm bringing my own keyboard and mouse, and will do all of my testing on my personal tablet and cell phone.

Beyond that, idk how to protect myself (and my family by proxy) while on the Metra. 

 

[southsideirish71]

17 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Have to start work Monday downtown Chicago. There is no legit way for me to get there without taking the Metra.
 I've been waiting 5 weeks to start this job, but like I said I have ppl that I live with that are at higher risk from this thing. I could drive, but then I have to pay downtown parking rates which I can't afford and I'm supposed to go 5 days a week for 3 weeks. How do I get this done without endangering my family?

I'm beyond shocked that they haven't gone remote yet. I wasn't expecting to have to start work until this whole thing blew over.

This is an IT company. I'm bringing my own keyboard and mouse, and will do all of my testing on my personal tablet and cell phone.



Beyond that, idk how to protect myself (and my family by proxy) while on the Metra. 

 

How you survived the interview process is beyond me.  Hopefully they allow the byo peripherals that you plan on plugging into their production equipment.  If they don't and you insist on playing that game you wont have to worry about the cost of parking and the metra.  You will be back home where its safe.  

 

Edited March 13, 2020 by southsideirish71

[Jerksticks]

46 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

tens of thousands probably have it because the lead time on symptoms is in healthy young people 3-10 days.   this virus is roughly 10 times more fatal than the flu overall and kills (best guess) about 10% of people over 70.  Healthy young people 4 in 2000 cases will die. That still kinda sucks.  

so yea we need to make sure this infects 50-70 million and not 150.  So far people seem to realize that.

Ok so if reports are that it’s killing 4 in 2000 healthy young people that still just means 4 in 2000 REPORTED cases.  So we have to assume there is some number greater than zero representing asymptomatic infections who never get tested.  What if that number is huge?

Say for every 2000 reported cases there are another 2000 asymptomatic cases.  
 

so you go from .002 to .0005 death rate.
 

is this crazy talk?  Maybe the nursing home thing in Washington says this is crazy talk.  
 

EDIT:  what if half of Italy’s population actually has corona virus (30 million) and only 12,000 have symptoms, rushing to hospitals to get tested.  And then 800 of those have died.

 

that would explain america’s lack of testing.  

Edited March 13, 2020 by Jerksticks

[Chisoxfn]

10 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

Ok so if reports are that it’s killing 4 in 2000 healthy young people that still just means 4 in 2000 REPORTED cases.  So we have to assume there is some number greater than zero representing asymptomatic infections who never get tested.  What if that number is huge?

Say for every 2000 reported cases there are another 2000 asymptomatic cases.  
 

so you go from .002 to .0005 death rate.
 

is this crazy talk?  Maybe the nursing home thing in Washington says this is crazy talk.  
 

EDIT:  what if half of Italy’s population actually has corona virus (30 million) and only 12,000 have symptoms, rushing to hospitals to get tested.  And then 800 of those have died.

 

that would explain america’s lack of testing.  

If that was the case and we just knew that arleady...why would we have shut down everything? I don’t see any rationale for that approach. In general I do agree the current rates are higher than actual but I’d argue the flu probably has some of those same challenges too. 

[Dick Allen]

Some perspective, on Thursday the US had as many confirmed cases as Italy had last Sunday. The US population is 5 times that of Italy. Will it go up 5 times the amount it did there? Hope not, but probably. Still only 11k had been tested in the US. The gutting of the CDC turned out not to be a very bright move. The lack of tests is appalling. The travel ban means nothing. It’s for show anyway. If the President has a golf course in your country, that country is exempt.  The cat is out of the bag.

[Jerksticks]

15 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

If that was the case and we just knew that arleady...why would we have shut down everything? I don’t see any rationale for that approach. In general I do agree the current rates are higher than actual but I’d argue the flu probably has some of those same challenges too. 

I see what you’re saying.  Maybe we just don’t know yet, as a world?  Countries are struggling just to test and take care of the sick, but are they really focusing on testing the whole population?

So South Korea is an interesting counterpoint to my hypothesis- testing 20,000 per day, and now over 200,000 total tested, but yet only having 7-8000 total cases.  Is it possible the asymptomatic don’t carry enough load to trigger a positive?

 

I’m just really struggling to explain how the whole San Antonio and AUSTIN metropolitan areas, containing millions and millions of people within an hour or so radius, giant international tech, recreation & convention destinations, huge international hubs....has zero cases still.   
 

 

[chitownsportsfan]

because there's no fucking testing dude.  it's that simple.  christ, it's like wondering why you couldn't really measure MLB defense before any sort of objective standard.

what I've read is that it's pretty hard to actually spread the disease despite the long period of being contagious.  You need aerosol drops in the face.  So wash hands, avoid intimate contact in public, and don't fucking touch your face.  When possible, avoid crowds.  If you can, work from home.  Blah blah blah.  We'll be good in a few months.  Listen to the scientists.

[Jack Parkman]

2 hours ago, southsideirish71 said:

How you survived the interview process is beyond me.  Hopefully they allow the byo peripherals that you plan on plugging into their production equipment.  If they don't and you insist on playing that game you wont have to worry about the cost of parking and the metra.  You will be back home where its safe.  

 

I survived the interview process because this is a company I worked for before and I left, ironically enough, because there was no easy way to get from my house and the office, the commute was long as hell and I was going through a car every 3 years. They were happy with my work and told me I could return if I wished to do so. There was another issue going on as well with a co-worker who is no longer at the company. I decided to explore some other options, but in the end decided that I want to go back. 

I was finally able to mitigate the commute issue, use public transit, and now I don't want to do it at least temporarily. The definition of irony. 

If you don't know, I'm on the spectrum and this company specializes is employing people like me who have been left behind by the mainstream workforce. 

Edited March 13, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[caulfield12]

3 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

because there's no fucking testing dude.  it's that simple.  christ, it's like wondering why you couldn't really measure MLB defense before any sort of objective standard.

what I've read is that it's pretty hard to actually spread the disease despite the long period of being contagious.  You need aerosol drops in the face.  So wash hands, avoid intimate contact in public, and don't fucking touch your face.  When possible, avoid crowds.  If you can, work from home.  Blah blah blah.  We'll be good in a few months.  Listen to the scientists.

https://nypost.com/2020/03/09/coronavirus-can-travel-much-farther-than-previously-thought-study-finds/

Not so fast...

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074351/coronavirus-can-travel-twice-far-official-safe-distance-and-stay

Original article, with bus diagram.

[Balta1701]

7 hours ago, Jerksticks said:

I’m just really struggling to explain how the whole San Antonio and AUSTIN metropolitan areas, containing millions and millions of people within an hour or so radius, giant international tech, recreation & convention destinations, huge international hubs....has zero cases still.   
 

 

yeah the labs in Texas can reportedly test 20 people or so per day for the whole state right now and there are known clusters in Houston and Dallas. They're only testing you if you're rich or if you came into contact with a symptomatic person from China.

They probably used a few tests on passengers coming in from that last cruise ship as well. 

It's only within the last day or so that they were able to increase that number.