COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[NorthSideSox72]

13 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

The CNN Poll was conducted by SSRS May 7-10 among a random national sample of 1,112 adults reached on landlines or cellphones by a live interviewer, including 1,001 registered voters and 583 voters in battleground states, defined as the 15 states decided by 8 points or less in 2016 -- Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

 

This is the first poll I've seen with Biden actually trailing in the battleground states...by 7 points.   That said, do the math for 15 states with those numbers and you could have just 39 voters (on average) representing each of these battleground states (some with quite significant populations.)    It would be Trump 303 and Biden with 262 and then another 18 "others."

All of the major betting sites have the cumulative average as Trump at 49.9 and Biden at 41.7 (won't get into all the possible reasons for that, but it starts out with Trump having significantly more "hardcore" followers or for sure/certain voters.)

Statistical noise, or a meaningful sign that the push to reopen is starting to resonate more and more around the country?  It's pretty difficult to ascertain as of yet.    We should know more conclusively by June 1st.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/13/politics/cnn-poll-2020/index.html

lol I saw this poll yesterday. Totally worthless. 583 voters across 15 states to get "battleground"? That's some of the worst methodology I have ever seen or heard.

Look at the recent polls WITHIN each state, especially the states actually in play. Trump isn't ahead or even close in any state among those that he lost in 2016, meanwhile Biden is leading in 5 or 6 states Trump won.

That's not to say Biden is a lock to win... just that the CNN poll in question is hot garbage.

 

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

Um, yeah, that's not what I said. I said I thought the court would not find for the plaintiffs because the legislature had the ability to override within the specified time window, and therefore had their own mechanism already in place. I just looked and it appears his first emergency order went in on March 12th, which is 63 days ago, past the 60-day limit. So now we are in a different legal scenario.

Also if you read the decision, they focused in a big way on the "rules" enacted by the department of public health, saying that regardless of emergency that continuing long-term rules could not be done via the emergency and instead needed to go through legislative rule-making procedures. I find that argument crap, but that's the route they took. Also interesting, the ruling was 4-3, and one of the more conservative judges sided with Evers. And one of the 4 judges who ruled in majority is being replaced in August thanks to that recent election.

Regardless, the 60 days have passed, and the legislature elected not to allow Evers further leeway OR extend the order, nor did the GOP issue their own plan or orders. Because the Wisconsin GOP is more interested in scoring points than who dies. So now there IS no plan or any rules or restrictions or even guidance at the state level. It's horrible. Fortunately, it looks like the mayors of some of the larger cities like Milwaukee and Madison and some others are electing to keep their own restrictions in place. At least until that becomes a legal issue.

Which is exactly what’s happening in Dallas, San Antonio and Austin right now...until Gov. Abbott figures out some way to override their orders.   Hasn’t exactly worked out well for Gov. Kemp in the showdown with the Atlanta mayor.

[StrangeSox]

19 minutes ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

Um, yeah, that's not what I said. I said I thought the court would not find for the plaintiffs because the legislature had the ability to override within the specified time window, and therefore had their own mechanism already in place. I just looked and it appears his first emergency order went in on March 12th, which is 63 days ago, past the 60-day limit. So now we are in a different legal scenario.

Also if you read the decision, they focused in a big way on the "rules" enacted by the department of public health, saying that regardless of emergency that continuing long-term rules could not be done via the emergency and instead needed to go through legislative rule-making procedures. I find that argument crap, but that's the route they took. Also interesting, the ruling was 4-3, and one of the more conservative judges sided with Evers. And one of the 4 judges who ruled in majority is being replaced in August thanks to that recent election.

Regardless, the 60 days have passed, and the legislature elected not to allow Evers further leeway OR extend the order, nor did the GOP issue their own plan or orders. Because the Wisconsin GOP is more interested in scoring points than who dies. So now there IS no plan or any rules or restrictions or even guidance at the state level. It's horrible. Fortunately, it looks like the mayors of some of the larger cities like Milwaukee and Madison and some others are electing to keep their own restrictions in place. At least until that becomes a legal issue.

Scenes like this were present around Milwaukee last night

One of the conservative justices issued a concurrence doubling down on comparing Evers' order to Japanese internment

Edited May 14, 2020 by StrangeSox

[bigruss]

As someone who lives in Milwaukee, not shocked at all by it but still pretty upset that people think this is ok.

Read an article the other day that after protests in Madison, there were 75 more cases reported from attendees alone.  Just dumb.

[Texsox]

I'm clicking pause at this point.

We now have intelligent, educated, probably not blinded by partisanship people calling for easing back the restrictions. I'm at least going to listen. 

[Dick Allen]

It's pretty weird the Republicans seem to have a different opinion about being shutdown based on who they believe set it up. The first couple weeks when they thought Trump shut it down, even though it was the governors, they had no problem. They had no problem with Trump shutting down travel. What about their rights? It's really bizarre. Wisconsin is especially scary since it is a border state with IL, and no doubt there will be idiots crossing the border getting infected and bringing it back.

[StrangeSox]

20 minutes ago, Texsox said:

I'm clicking pause at this point.

We now have intelligent, educated, probably not blinded by partisanship people calling for easing back the restrictions. I'm at least going to listen. 

Who are these people and are they infectious disease experts? What restrictions are they calling to be eased, and where?

Edited May 14, 2020 by StrangeSox

[Texsox]

1 minute ago, StrangeSox said:

Who are these people and are they infectious disease experts? What restrictions are they calling to be eased, and where?

We have our elected leaders who have these experts at their disposal. If you can listen and have an opinion, I assume that others can as well. So I'm not going to dismiss immediately those plans to reopen some businesses. I do not believe we can keep businesses closed permanently and I doubt you do either. Therefor, eventually there will be a reopening. I'm not paying ettention to crazy lady hanging out a car window, but I will listen to people in positions of authority. 

BTW, I have cancer and hypertension so I am in a very high risk category so I don't take this position lightly. 

[southsider2k5]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/opinion/coronavirus-us-deaths.html?smid=tw-share&fbclid=IwAR3q_iYRfkUqES1snrcy18qDm7htfJ86Xt7kZfgtAzh8VHuZnph_0xgJxhU

#1. For the record, Indiana has 1000 unexplained deaths in excess of normal, even after deaths being accounted for by Covid, so the problem here is much bigger than is being explained to us. We are counting only 1482 deaths so far, so up to 40% of Covid deaths in this state could be unreported.

#2. The thing that is most convincing for me in the data is that in states that haven't seen outbreaks you are actually seeing falling death rates. So the idea that massive amounts of suicides, heart attacks, and other lockdown related stress killings are happening isn't there in the data either. All states have been locked down, so if there is a spike going on, no one's death rates would be falling, in fact all states should be experiencing similar spikes if this wasn't Covid related.

 

[StrangeSox]

25 minutes ago, Texsox said:

We have our elected leaders who have these experts at their disposal. If you can listen and have an opinion, I assume that others can as well. So I'm not going to dismiss immediately those plans to reopen some businesses. I do not believe we can keep businesses closed permanently and I doubt you do either. Therefor, eventually there will be a reopening. I'm not paying ettention to crazy lady hanging out a car window, but I will listen to people in positions of authority. 

BTW, I have cancer and hypertension so I am in a very high risk category so I don't take this position lightly. 

People in positions of authority have pretty clearly demonstrated reasons to be skeptical of their motivations and understanding to me. A lot of them are essentially at the same level as the crazy lady screaming out of a car window.

I will listen to the actual experts on this. When elected officials are in line with actual experts, I'll support them. When they aren't, I won't think they have access to some sort of secret information or understanding.

But of course we need to know what leaders are making these statements and what restrictions they're actually calling to be eased. A blanket statement includes everyone from the "masks are a liberal globalist conspiracy to enact communism" state rep to governors like pritzker who are going with a metric-based plan to lt. governors like yours in Texas who are saying they're fine with sacrificing thousands of lives.

[Texsox]

So you are also listening to what elected officials have to say?

BTW, I haven't seen that quote from our governor. 

This is more in line with what he has been doing

Quote

“I'm focusing on the next year,” Abbott said in a radio interview this week, “and making sure that Texas over the course of the next year is going to be able to open up and steps that ensure that we will be able to continue the economic expansion in the state of Texas as opposed to rushing the gate and having everybody getting sick and having to close businesses down again.”

He added: “If you're looking at the long game, there are some people who want to be real impulsive and think about let's just focus on tomorrow.”

That’s classic Abbott.

As Texas Republicans fracture over a crisis that’s hammering all their buttons about personal liberty, big government and economic freedom, the former judge and state attorney general is leaning on the caution he’s known for.

 

 

[StrangeSox]

9 minutes ago, Texsox said:

So you are also listening to what elected officials have to say?

BTW, I haven't seen that quote from our governor. 

This is more in line with what he has been doing

 

I'm listening to what the experts say and judging the elected officials' plans based on that. I'm not taking the elected officials at their word given the widely demonstrated incompetence thus far.

The quote was from your lt. gov, not Abbott.

Appearing on Fox News, Patrick told Tucker Carlson, “No one reached out to me and said, ‘As a senior citizen, are you willing to take a chance on your survival in exchange for keeping the America that all America loves for your children and grandchildren?’” But if they had? “If that is the exchange, I’m all in,” Patrick said. He continued: “That doesn’t make me noble or brave or anything like that. I just think there are lots of grandparents out there in this country, like me, I have six grandchildren, that what we all care about and what we love more than anything are those children. And I want to live smart and see through this, but I don’t want the whole country to be sacrificed…I’ve talked to hundreds of people, Tucker, and just in the last week, making calls all the time, and everyone says pretty much the same thing. That we can’t lose our whole country, we’re having an economic collapse. I’m also a small businessman, I understand it. And I talk with businesspeople all the time, Tucker. My heart is lifted tonight by what I heard the president say because we can do more than one thing at a time, we can do two things. So my message is let’s get back to work, let’s get back to living. Let’s be smart about it and those of us who are 70-plus, we’ll take care of ourselves. But don’t sacrifice the country, don’t do that, don’t ruin this great America.”

[Texsox]

They run independent of each other, not as a ticket. It's possible to have a governor from one party and the lieutenant governor from another party. You could be quoting our Railroad Commissioner for all the impact it has on the governor and state policy. 

[greg775]

16 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

We meaning all the residents of Lawrence or even Douglas County, all the residents of Kansas, all Americans.

And do you really think Donald Trump actually CARES about YOU?   Howard Stern knows him about as well as anyone in the media does...

“The oddity in all of this is the people Trump despises most, love him the most,” Stern said on his SiriusXM show, the New York Daily News reported. “The people who are voting for Trump for the most part … he wouldn’t even let them in a (expletive) hotel. He’d be disgusted by them. Go to Mar-a-Lago, see if there’s any people who look like you. I’m talking to you in the audience.”

 

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/05/13/covid-19-finally-pushes-howard-stern-to-turn-on-friend-trump-and-his-maga-listeners/

 

Yeah. One of my popular, repeated views on here about Trump in the political forum back then was he is a rich guy who has been catered to his whole life with yes men and women. All the rich guys I've known have been selfish jerks. He is a rich guy who would not let you golf in his foursome, that is so. I agree with howard. 

[NorthSideSox72]

Tex, I think it is absolutely a balance, so in that sense I agree with you. It is true we cannot stay in the relatively full-on lockdown (for all non-essential activities) forever. There are very real economic impacts for people that are now out of work, going bankrupt, etc. I agree that looking at gradual re-openings is something every state should be doing. It's just a question of how to create a "curve" that is a function approaching, but not superseding, the limitations of our health care system in capacity of all relevant types (hospitalization, ICU levels, ventilators, personnel). Some states (like Iowa) decided to re-open right when their case loads were going up in a hurry, which was stupid and now we are starting to see signs the virus will hit rural areas that do not have much surge capacity. But on the other hand, in states where capacity headroom is still very good, some partial re-opening makes sense.

 

[StrangeSox]

 

[turnin' two]

2 hours ago, StrangeSox said:

Scenes like this were present around Milwaukee last night

One of the conservative justices issued a concurrence doubling down on comparing Evers' order to Japanese internment

Of course they aren't wearing masks.  You can't drink through an N95.  Duh.  

[StrangeSox]

8 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Of course they aren't wearing masks.  You can't drink through an N95.  Duh.  

[turnin' two]

1 minute ago, StrangeSox said:

Its a nice try, but you have clearly never been to a bar in Wisconsin. 

 

[Texsox]

48 minutes ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

Tex, I think it is absolutely a balance, so in that sense I agree with you. It is true we cannot stay in the relatively full-on lockdown (for all non-essential activities) forever. There are very real economic impacts for people that are now out of work, going bankrupt, etc. I agree that looking at gradual re-openings is something every state should be doing. It's just a question of how to create a "curve" that is a function approaching, but not superseding, the limitations of our health care system in capacity of all relevant types (hospitalization, ICU levels, ventilators, personnel). Some states (like Iowa) decided to re-open right when their case loads were going up in a hurry, which was stupid and now we are starting to see signs the virus will hit rural areas that do not have much surge capacity. But on the other hand, in states where capacity headroom is still very good, some partial re-opening makes sense.

 

I agree. It's a tough decision to make and I do not envy anyone who has to make it. 

[pcq]

1 hour ago, Texsox said:

I agree. It's a tough decision to make and I do not envy anyone who has to make it. 

The idea that wearing a mask is a political statement shows what a hot mess we have become. Now we are inventing things to be offended over.

[Texsox]

1 minute ago, pcq said:

The idea that wearing a mask is a political statement shows what a hot mess we have become. Now we are inventing things to be offended over.

The long lasting change in my view of our society after this is we are a very selfish, entitled, society. 

[bmags]

well no such luck with keeping consistently good news.

22.5k tests

3300 positives

14%

Still overall nice trend with lots of more tests online but really hope we can start openign more places to allow quarantining away from family.

[NorthSideSox72]

33 minutes ago, pcq said:

The idea that wearing a mask is a political statement shows what a hot mess we have become. Now we are inventing things to be offended over.

Yeah I have zero sympathy for people upset about wearing a mask in public spaces and businesses. We've abided by no shirt, no shoes, no service forever. This is a change but it is tiny and goes a long way to allowing us to get back to semi-normal.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

2 minutes ago, bmags said:

well no such luck with keeping consistently good news.

22.5k tests

3300 positives

14%

Still overall nice trend with lots of more tests online but really hope we can start openign more places to allow quarantining away from family.

Not as huge testing numbers as yesterday, but that will still lower the 7-day average. Progress continues.