COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, Jerksticks said:

Bingo.  The whole point of us flattening the curve was to not overwhelm hospitals as the virus continues to spread. 

It is supposed to keep spreading.  Why does that fact seem to get lost so easily?

When did elimination and containment replace flattening the curve?  

Ok, so, we have flattened the curve nationwide as of May 1. I agree with that, the nation was no longer spiking. That was a genuine success. Therefore, nothing additional can open beyond what was open in the time period April 15 to May 1, otherwise things will start going back up and the curve will no longer remain flat. So we maintain the quarantine at that level for the next 18 month, the Virus is allowed to spread at that rate, and  the curve remains flat.

Right?

See the problem? 

If you want to be able to open things back up and allow more personal contact, you have to have something pushing the opposite direction to limit its ability to spread. Something that wasn't available to you when you started your act of last resort (the shutdowns). 

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Jerksticks said:

Bingo.  The whole point of us flattening the curve was to not overwhelm hospitals as the virus continues to spread. 

It is supposed to keep spreading.  Why does that fact seem to get lost so easily?

 

When did elimination and containment replace flattening the curve?  

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/14/opinions/restaurants-will-need-a-miracle-to-survive-the-pandemic-dey/index.html
 

Let’s say you do get your way, we just collectively say screw it...about 50% of the population or so is confident to go out eating, shopping, traveling, etc.

How many of these independent restaurants that make up the backbone of cities across the country are going to survive in such an environment, where profit margins are already stretched so thin?

Won’t we just end up more America, Inc., with only fast food franchises and a few mid or upscale places like a Ruth’s Chris, Tony Roma’s or Cheesecake Factory (struggling to pay rents) thrown into the mix?    Are we now doomed to a world where Red Lobster, Olive Garden, Applebee’s, TGI Friday’s and Chili’s comprise the apex of fine dining?

 

Restaurants run at terribly low margins with astonishingly high failure rates and often exploitative terms for our employees. Much of this is for sheer survival and not because of rapacious owners rolling in money.

On the contrary, we restaurateurs fuel employment against all odds, and we're stuck in this vicious loop. But maybe there will be innovation in the aftermath of the destruction. Maybe not all our businesses are meant to survive this storm, to surface with stronger economics and with less excess capacity in the industry as a whole. 

Maybe it's time to reevaluate minimum wages, redraw tip credits and rethink the lack of parental and sick leave and social safety nets. Maybe this is true of all small business and even big business today. These are issues we have to confront as a society with our government. Now could be the perfect time to break with the past.

.....

Our industry is irate that the precipice we've been driven to stems from mandated months of closure and that we face an incredibly uphill journey, with none of the assistance that big business receives. It is categorically not an intrinsic, reckless failure of our own making.

After the trillions expended on buoying the stock market and on unlimited quantitative easing and corporate bond financing, shouldn't our government deliver for an industry that employs some 15 million and is #TooSmallToFail?

 

Edited May 14, 2020 by caulfield12

[pcq]

As the virus drags on some people will have to adapt rather than return to their former life.  Some will learn a computer skill and others might shave their heads. Many people are not going to volunteer to be Pinnochio Cheeto's guinea pig.

[StrangeSox]

Nobody is calling for indefinite lockdown at current levels until there's a vaccine. The CDC put out a pretty good reopening guideline!

 

[Heads22]

21 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

Nobody is calling for indefinite lockdown at current levels until there's a vaccine. The CDC put out a pretty good reopening guideline!

 

It would seem that any sort of consistent leadership and messaging from the federal level would have helped!

[caulfield12]

38 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

Nobody is calling for indefinite lockdown at current levels until there's a vaccine. The CDC put out a pretty good reopening guideline!

 

Great, except someone who’s not even a doctor (nor has she been confirmed even) blocked them, largely because Trump doesn’t like or trust Dr. Redfield (yet can’t fire him or Azar because it would make him look weak, apparently.)

https://time.com/5836540/nancy-beck-trump-coronavirus-cdc-guidelines-reopening/

 

Let’s not forget that Jared Kushner inhabits a universe where he thinks his powers might be so expansive that an election can even be delayed, which, of course, hasn’t happened EVER...and where the DJIA is infinitely more important than 150,000 lives lost.

Well, will you commit that the elections will happen on November 3?" he was asked.

"It's not my decision to make, so I'm not sure I can commit one way or the other. But right now, that's the plan and again, hopefully, by the time we get to September, October, November, we've done enough work with testing and with all the different things we're trying to do to prevent a future outbreak of the magnitude that would make us shut down again,” he said.   cnn.com

Edited May 15, 2020 by caulfield12

[Jose Abreu]

If Illinois indeed moves to Phase 3 at the end of the month, how (if applicable) would the rest of you Illinoisans change your behaviors?

 

For example, I haven't seen my grandparents (all 4 of which are healthy and live nearby) in-person since early March. They are all high-risk due to both age and things like diabetes, past cancer treatments, etc, and I'm not sure if it would be appropriate to see them even once restrictions are eased

[Soxbadger]

14 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

If Illinois indeed moves to Phase 3 at the end of the month, how (if applicable) would the rest of you Illinoisans change your behaviors?

 

For example, I haven't seen my grandparents (all 4 of which are healthy and live nearby) in-person since early March. They are all high-risk due to both age and things like diabetes, past cancer treatments, etc, and I'm not sure if it would be appropriate to see them even once restrictions are eased

Probably not much, ill get my haircut to help them survive because they have refused to let me pay them for the months I missed.

Im hoping court doesnt open right away because that seems like an outbreak waiting to happen. Otherwise ill work from home and do the same old.

Nothing is really opening up thats worth going out for.

[StrangeSox]

1 hour ago, Heads22 said:

It would seem that any sort of consistent leadership and messaging from the federal level would have helped!

Here you go

 

[The Beast]

20 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

If Illinois indeed moves to Phase 3 at the end of the month, how (if applicable) would the rest of you Illinoisans change your behaviors?

 

For example, I haven't seen my grandparents (all 4 of which are healthy and live nearby) in-person since early March. They are all high-risk due to both age and things like diabetes, past cancer treatments, etc, and I'm not sure if it would be appropriate to see them even once restrictions are eased

I will wear masks to the grocery store and when I get my haircut, still will probably work from home until my employer gives us the green light to return to the office and consider going places safely. I am going to return as I think we should be returning - gradually and cautiously.

I’ll also probably not go to any sporting events this year if we are allowed to go. It’s not worth risking my and my family’s health.

Edited May 15, 2020 by The Beast

[caulfield12]

Recently, when one such woman had a change of heart about the charges she was paid to fabricate — this time against Dr. Anthony Fauci — she recorded (Jack) Burkman detailing the importance of the scam they were pulling. When pushed by the young woman (a former friend of Wohl’s) about the health risks of the virus — risks she felt Wohl and Burkman were downplaying — the latter articulated the desiccated heart of conservative thinking.

To wit, Burkman:

“Mother Nature has to clean the barn every so often…So what if 1 percent of the population goes? So what if you lose 400,000 people? Two hundred thousand were elderly; the other 200,000 are the bottom of society. You got to clean out the barn. If it’s real, it’s a positive thing, for God’s sake.”

Tim Wise/Medium.com

 

This is the beating heart of every Covid argument on this board.   The 47% who aren’t generating revenues/taxes for the government or profits for corporations, to Mitt Romney.  The Deplorables, to the Clinton campaign.  To Obama, the ones “clinging to guns and religion” in PA.

While it sounds exactly like something from a Hitlerian era treatise on eugenics...if you strip away rights/freedoms/we the people/don’t tread on me, it comes down to this simple conclusion.

Older people die, so less government resources are allocated for Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security.  The bottom of society (well, we have to somehow keep Trump voters alive at least until November 3rd in order to vote in person) needs to be “cleansed” as well, the wheat needs to be separated from the chaff.  This is actually a positive thing for society, not something to be feared or prevented.

Edited May 15, 2020 by caulfield12

[bmags]

21 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

If Illinois indeed moves to Phase 3 at the end of the month, how (if applicable) would the rest of you Illinoisans change your behaviors?

 

For example, I haven't seen my grandparents (all 4 of which are healthy and live nearby) in-person since early March. They are all high-risk due to both age and things like diabetes, past cancer treatments, etc, and I'm not sure if it would be appropriate to see them even once restrictions are eased

Tough to say. We may give our kids some time with their grandparents before going back to daycare since after that seems unlikely.

but definitely need some time with friends just likely to stick to outdoors.

[Balta1701]

51 minutes ago, The Beast said:

I will wear masks to the grocery store and when I get my haircut, still will probably work from home until my employer gives us the green light to return to the office and consider going places safely. I am going to return as I think we should be returning - gradually and cautiously.

I’ll also probably not go to any sporting events this year if we are allowed to go. It’s not worth risking my and my family’s health.

I’ve been giving myself a razor cut for the last 20 years. I never thought it would save my life.

Seriously, I can’t imagine a barber/hairdresser being safe. It would have to be treated like a hospital. N95 masks and face shields, full sanitation after every customer, no one in waiting rooms at all, only 2 people in the whole room, as little talking as possible, tests every 3 days? You’d have no way of knowing if your hairdresser was infected 2 days beforehand, they’d show no symptoms but they’d infect everyone who care in without that amount of gear, and unless they were trained like a doctor for cleanliness what are the odds they wouldn’t pick it up if they had a contagious patient? Do they have a full cleaning crew to come in after each patient? Yeah, I can’t figure out any way to make that work with the most recent results.

[hogan873]

8 hours ago, Jose Abreu said:

If Illinois indeed moves to Phase 3 at the end of the month, how (if applicable) would the rest of you Illinoisans change your behaviors?

 

For example, I haven't seen my grandparents (all 4 of which are healthy and live nearby) in-person since early March. They are all high-risk due to both age and things like diabetes, past cancer treatments, etc, and I'm not sure if it would be appropriate to see them even once restrictions are eased

I'll get my hair cut, but I won't need to for a few weeks.  My daughter took the clippers to my head a couple weeks ago.  I usually get a flattop, but I had her just take a #3 all the way around.  I'll need to let it grow out some more in order to be able to get a flattop again.

Other than that, I don't see much changing.  With the warmer months approaching, there will be some opportunities to gather at friends' houses for cookouts, drinks, etc.

Phase 4 is the big one.  Restaurants and bars will be allowed to open with occupancy restrictions.  I don't see going out to eat right away after Phase 4, but I wouldn't be against going to one of the local breweries for a beer or two.

Let's hope that we continue on the trend and get to Phase 4 soon.

[StrangeSox]

7 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

I’ve been giving myself a razor cut for the last 20 years. I never thought it would save my life.

Seriously, I can’t imagine a barber/hairdresser being safe. It would have to be treated like a hospital. N95 masks and face shields, full sanitation after every customer, no one in waiting rooms at all, only 2 people in the whole room, as little talking as possible, tests every 3 days? You’d have no way of knowing if your hairdresser was infected 2 days beforehand, they’d show no symptoms but they’d infect everyone who care in without that amount of gear, and unless they were trained like a doctor for cleanliness what are the odds they wouldn’t pick it up if they had a contagious patient? Do they have a full cleaning crew to come in after each patient? Yeah, I can’t figure out any way to make that work with the most recent results.

 

[The Beast]

10 hours ago, Jose Abreu said:

If Illinois indeed moves to Phase 3 at the end of the month, how (if applicable) would the rest of you Illinoisans change your behaviors?

 

For example, I haven't seen my grandparents (all 4 of which are healthy and live nearby) in-person since early March. They are all high-risk due to both age and things like diabetes, past cancer treatments, etc, and I'm not sure if it would be appropriate to see them even once restrictions are eased

I also am concerned of what kind of tax increase we are going to expect to see without sales tax in the budget this year and all of the initiatives taken to fight COVID-19. Add in the unfunded pension liabilities the state has and we might be hit with some tax increases soon. I don’t mean to make it political, but that is something I am concerned about with what has happened. I don’t expect a bailout and instead believe there will be some sort of bankruptcy accelerated by COVID-19 and the state’s financial issues.

[bmags]

Save us...um...big tobacco

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-15/cigarette-maker-s-coronavirus-vaccine-poised-for-human-tests?sref=vuYGislZ

[bmags]

Hmm

 

[Jerksticks]

13 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Ok, so, we have flattened the curve nationwide as of May 1. I agree with that, the nation was no longer spiking. That was a genuine success. Therefore, nothing additional can open beyond what was open in the time period April 15 to May 1, otherwise things will start going back up and the curve will no longer remain flat. So we maintain the quarantine at that level for the next 18 month, the Virus is allowed to spread at that rate, and  the curve remains flat.

Right?

See the problem? 

If you want to be able to open things back up and allow more personal contact, you have to have something pushing the opposite direction to limit its ability to spread. Something that wasn't available to you when you started your act of last resort (the shutdowns). 

But don’t we have mechanisms pushing back now?

Capacity: Plenty of room for more at hospitals.  It’s hard to tell how true this is or not, but it seems that way.

Identify: Healthcare knows what they are dealing with now (vs March-April rush and total confusion).

Treatment: Healthcare is getting better every day at saving lives.  Not rushing to intubate any more, proning, oxygen etc. 
 

Supplies:  Ventilator-gate never happened.  PPE supply is increasing daily since the rush.  
 

Public Awareness: People are all wearing masks, making masks, social distancing, practicing way better hygiene, working from home etc.  Yes there are morons too, but generally, everyone is being super safe.

Sure there are plenty of examples of idiocy and failures in all of the above, but overall, this has been a pretty remarkable mobilization and adaptation of the American people over 6-8 weeks. 
 

I think the “real” flattened curve is whatever it looks like with people out and about but wearing masks, businesses open but with 6-10’ spacing, social distancing, washing hands, avoiding handshakes/hugs and generally isolating as much as possible.  
 

So yes I agree we will see plenty of spike,  but 18 month quarantine doesn’t seem realistic to me either, or even beneficial.  We went from “Totally Unprepared” to hopefully “As Prepared As We Can Be, Realistically”.

 

You’re in Texas somewhere too, right?  We are basically Sweden-lite, like it or not.  That’s the path Texas has chosen.  
 

Do you think we’ll see hospitals getting overrun?  It’s certainly possible, but it would come slower than NY right?

[Dick Allen]

Borrowing Trump's logic, we can cure cancer pretty easily. Just don't test people for it. It's gone.

[StrangeSox]

 I doubt there'll be any reinstitution of lockdown measures in the US

[bmags]

oh my gosh, what a wonderful way to end the week in illinois.

26,565 tests run (!)

2,432 cases

9.2% positive rate

[Brian]

We're WFH until the end of June now.

[NorthSideSox72]

37 minutes ago, bmags said:

oh my gosh, what a wonderful way to end the week in illinois.

26,565 tests run (!)

2,432 cases

9.2% positive rate

Barring a fairly huge spike in the last couple weeks of May, it looks very likely the whole state is going to Phase 3 on the 30th.

 

[bmags]

3 minutes ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

Barring a fairly huge spike in the last couple weeks of May, it looks very likely the whole state is going to Phase 3 on the 30th.

 

Chicago has some different rules which are stricter and may override, but yes I think we are finally on our way.