COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[caulfield12]

12 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

yeah the labs in Texas can reportedly test 20 people or so per day for the whole state right now and there are known clusters in Houston and Dallas. They're only testing you if you're rich or if you came into contact with a symptomatic person from China.

They probably used a few tests on passengers coming in from that last cruise ship as well. 

It's only within the last day or so that they were able to increase that number.

If those are the parameters for testing, why do they keep arguing 70% of the US cases are originating in Europe?

 

Here’s one theory on origin of Italian problem

Edited March 13, 2020 by caulfield12

[Jerksticks]

7 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

because there's no fucking testing dude.  it's that simple.  christ, it's like wondering why you couldn't really measure MLB defense before any sort of objective standard.

what I've read is that it's pretty hard to actually spread the disease despite the long period of being contagious.  You need aerosol drops in the face.  So wash hands, avoid intimate contact in public, and don't fucking touch your face.  When possible, avoid crowds.  If you can, work from home.  Blah blah blah.  We'll be good in a few months.  Listen to the scientists.

Dude. How can you possibly say that after what I said?  I’m the one saying I think probably hundreds of thousands here already have it, in my cities alone.    Sweet Moses. 

[Jack Parkman]

22 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

Dude. How can you possibly say that after what I said?  I’m the one saying I think probably hundreds of thousands here already have it, in my cities alone.    Sweet Moses. 

You live in the Austin-San Antonio area? or DFW? 

[caulfield12]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/people-fully-recover-coronavirus-left-103917303.html
another reason this is quite different from the flu...

 

People who recover from the coronavirus can still be left with substantially reduced lung functions, Hong Kong Hospital Authority have found after observing the first wave of discharged patients.

The doctors found a drop of 20% to 30% in lung capacity in two or three out of those 12 patients.

"They gasp if they walk a bit more quickly," said Dr Owen Tsang Tak-yin, an infectious-diseases expert at the authority, according to the South China Morning Post.

While it's too early to establish long-term effects of the illness, scans of nine patients in the group suggested that recovered patients had sustained organ damage, the Post reported.

[Balta1701]

8 hours ago, Jerksticks said:

I see what you’re saying.  Maybe we just don’t know yet, as a world?  Countries are struggling just to test and take care of the sick, but are they really focusing on testing the whole population?

So South Korea is an interesting counterpoint to my hypothesis- testing 20,000 per day, and now over 200,000 total tested, but yet only having 7-8000 total cases.  Is it possible the asymptomatic don’t carry enough load to trigger a positive?

 

I’m just really struggling to explain how the whole San Antonio and AUSTIN metropolitan areas, containing millions and millions of people within an hour or so radius, giant international tech, recreation & convention destinations, huge international hubs....has zero cases still.   
 

 

Apparently Austin has its first 2 positive tests after the ramp-up from 20 tests yesterday.

[StrangeSox]

Advocate Good Shepherd in Barrington is starting drive-thru testing for COVID-19

[Jerksticks]

13 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Apparently Austin has its first 2 positive tests after the ramp-up from 20 tests yesterday.

Yep.  Still think the only thing that makes sense is tens, maybe hundreds of thousands here have it.  I know a lot of sick people. 

[Balta1701]

9 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

Yep.  Still think the only thing that makes sense is tens, maybe hundreds of thousands here have it.  I know a lot of sick people. 

While scrolling through Twitter I've seen literally dozens saying "I've got all the symptoms and I can't get tested" or "I had all the symptoms in February and couldn't get tested". If I've seen dozens there  are probably more than a hundred just on Twitter, and if there's a hundred on twitter there's got to be what, thousands of those in the real world? A couple of them  are mentioned on the front page of my newspaper today.

[Jenksismyhero]

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/people-fully-recover-coronavirus-left-103917303.html
another reason this is quite different from the flu...

 

People who recover from the coronavirus can still be left with substantially reduced lung functions, Hong Kong Hospital Authority have found after observing the first wave of discharged patients.

The doctors found a drop of 20% to 30% in lung capacity in two or three out of those 12 patients.

"They gasp if they walk a bit more quickly," said Dr Owen Tsang Tak-yin, an infectious-diseases expert at the authority, according to the South China Morning Post.

While it's too early to establish long-term effects of the illness, scans of nine patients in the group suggested that recovered patients had sustained organ damage, the Post reported.

Doesn't China have a HUGE smoking problem? Maybe pre-existing problems get enhanced by the virus.

[caulfield12]

16 minutes ago, Jenksismyhero said:

Doesn't China have a HUGE smoking problem? Maybe pre-existing problems get enhanced by the virus.

That’s undoubtedly one factor.

 

During the third phase, lung damage continues to build—which can result in respiratory failure. Even if death doesn’t occur, some patients survive with permanent lung damage. According to the WHO, SARS punched holes in the lungs, giving them “a honeycomb-like appearance”—and these lesions are present in those afflicted by novel coronavirus, too.

Some people who recovered from severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) which swept the world in 2002 to 2003 had long-term respiratory problems as their lungs were permanently damaged. Covid-19 is similar to Sars in some respects, although is much less lethal, so those who have recovered from more serious symptoms may also suffer some long-term effects. 

 

From Telegraph/UK

[Jerksticks]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

While scrolling through Twitter I've seen literally dozens saying "I've got all the symptoms and I can't get tested" or "I had all the symptoms in February and couldn't get tested". If I've seen dozens there  are probably more than a hundred just on Twitter, and if there's a hundred on twitter there's got to be what, thousands of those in the real world? A couple of them  are mentioned on the front page of my newspaper today.

Yea.  Dude if it’s as infectious as they say, especially asymptomatically and how it’s airborne and stays on surfaces...it had to have spread all over the world December and January before China shut down.  None of this makes sense.  Testing seems completely pointless and maybe the world realized that and the best global strategy is to actually have us all bicker about testing for a while while the disease runs its course.  What does a billion positive tests accomplish except flood hospitals with people not in critical condition.  
 

the strategy is to not test so the people with pneumonia can get help.  Italy is fucking it up 

 

edit:  I’m guessing.  Just trying to figure it out. 

Edited March 13, 2020 by Jerksticks

[mqr]

12 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

the strategy is to not test so the people with pneumonia can get help.  Italy is fucking it up 

Pretty sure they're only testing people in pretty rough shape. At least I hope to god that's the case because their numbers are absolutely horrifying. 

[Jerksticks]

2 minutes ago, mqr said:

Pretty sure they're only testing people in pretty rough shape. At least I hope to god that's the case because their numbers are absolutely horrifying. 

Me too man.  I mentioned above but maybe half their population has it?  So like 30 million. Or say Merkel is right that 70% will get it, which is probably low but whatever.  If it’s as infectious as experts say, the virus was probably all over Italy before the first people reported symptoms.  So out of 30-50 million, you have 10-15,000 people showing symptoms going to hospitals.  The numbers become alarmingly low.  
 

i hope that’s the case

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

33 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

Yea.  Dude if it’s as infectious as they say, especially asymptomatically and how it’s airborne and stays on surfaces...it had to have spread all over the world December and January before China shut down.  None of this makes sense.  Testing seems completely pointless and maybe the world realized that and the best global strategy is to actually have us all bicker about testing for a while while the disease runs its course.  What does a billion positive tests accomplish except flood hospitals with people not in critical condition.  
 

the strategy is to not test so the people with pneumonia can get help.  Italy is fucking it up 

 

edit:  I’m guessing.  Just trying to figure it out. 

How is testing pointless?

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

13 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

Me too man.  I mentioned above but maybe half their population has it?  So like 30 million. Or say Merkel is right that 70% will get it, which is probably low but whatever.  If it’s as infectious as experts say, the virus was probably all over Italy before the first people reported symptoms.  So out of 30-50 million, you have 10-15,000 people showing symptoms going to hospitals.  The numbers become alarmingly low.  
 

i hope that’s the case

Half the population does not have it right now. That is not at all what has been said. The growth rate puts it at 40-70% over the next 18 months. 

You're literally speculating and cherry picking numbers to better your case. That's not how statistics works.

[Jerksticks]

27 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Half the population does not have it right now. That is not at all what has been said. The growth rate puts it at 40-70% over the next 18 months. 

You're literally speculating and cherry picking numbers to better your case. That's not how statistics works.

I get what you’re saying.  I think we all do.  You’re repeating the information out there.  I didn’t cherry pick anything.  I sure as hell am speculating though- that’s the idea with trying to explain inconsistencies.

I think you missed my point.  If this thing is as contagious as told then it would already pretty much be everywhere since it was flying around the globe during the holiday months.   

Sick people are being tested.  What if the asymptomatic/mild flu number is astronomical?  We have no data
 

 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

8 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

I get what you’re saying.  I think we all do.  You’re repeating the information out there.  I didn’t cherry pick anything.  I sure as hell am speculating though- that’s the idea with trying to explain inconsistencies.

I think you missed my point.  If this thing is as contagious as told then it would already pretty much be everywhere since it was flying around the globe during the holiday months.   

Sick people are being tested.  What if the asymptomatic/mild flu number is astronomical?  We have no data
 

 

I recommend you read this:

 

https://www.linkedin.com/content-guest/article/notes-from-ucsf-expert-panel-march-10-dr-jordan-shlain-m-d-/

[Jerksticks]

33 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I recommend you read this:

 

https://www.linkedin.com/content-guest/article/notes-from-ucsf-expert-panel-march-10-dr-jordan-shlain-m-d-/

? This is just the common information.  
 

Alright you win. I’ll stop.  Let’s just hash out the common talking points some more. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

5 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

? This is just the common information.  
 

Alright you win. I’ll stop.  Let’s just hash out the common talking points some more. 

No, this is what scientists are saying. You are speculating based on absolutely nothing but your own personal thoughts. Instead of spreading misinformation at a time like this, let's focus on the facts for now.

[Jerksticks]

How can your brain link, “Me speculating about the available scientific information” all the way to “spreading misinformation”?   Like how does a brain do that?  You just accused me of something I’m not doing in the least.  That’s so bizarre.  The whole basis of science is forming hypotheses and then testing them.   
 

Again, we all are reading the same stuff online.   All of us.  We all know the facts right now.  
 

I’m sorry everybody.  I got a sick family and know tons of sick people and there are interesting things to speculate about.  I’ll shut up now and if anybody wants to go down the rabbit hole some more, keep PMing me. 
 

Good luck to everybody

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

8 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

How can your brain link, “Me speculating about the available scientific information” all the way to “spreading misinformation”?   Like how does a brain do that?  You just accused me of something I’m not doing in the least.  That’s so bizarre.  The whole basis of science is forming hypotheses and then testing them.   
 

Again, we all are reading the same stuff online.   All of us.  We all know the facts right now.  
 

I’m sorry everybody.  I got a sick family and know tons of sick people and there are interesting things to speculate about.  I’ll shut up now and if anybody wants to go down the rabbit hole some more, keep PMing me. 
 

Good luck to everybody

You're not a scientist, so you are not forming any hypotheses. 

Stay safe.

Edited March 13, 2020 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Jack Parkman]

Like I said, I have to start work Monday and I think it's beyond asinine that they haven't stopped training and gone remote yet. 

However, I'm not making the decisions so I have to deal with the consequences of other people's choices. I just hope it doesn't affect me or my family or anyone else who works there. 

Holding out hope that they make the decision to go remote by Sunday. 

Edited March 13, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[Jenksismyhero]

Social distancing doesn't work when everyone and their mother is out shopping ?

[Chisoxfn]

3 hours ago, Jerksticks said:

Yea.  Dude if it’s as infectious as they say, especially asymptomatically and how it’s airborne and stays on surfaces...it had to have spread all over the world December and January before China shut down.  None of this makes sense.  Testing seems completely pointless and maybe the world realized that and the best global strategy is to actually have us all bicker about testing for a while while the disease runs its course.  What does a billion positive tests accomplish except flood hospitals with people not in critical condition.  
 

the strategy is to not test so the people with pneumonia can get help.  Italy is fucking it up 

 

edit:  I’m guessing.  Just trying to figure it out. 

Ok- This is the first potential theory I could see for keeping tests low (basically to keep millions of people from running to get tested every time they have a cold).  This maybe forces people to be careful and only go in when symptoms are serious (vs. many who would panic and run in for a test).  

[Bob Sacamano]

31 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Like I said, I have to start work Monday and I think it's beyond asinine that they haven't stopped training and gone remote yet. 

However, I'm not making the decisions so I have to deal with the consequences of other people's choices. I just hope it doesn't affect me or my family or anyone else who works there. 

Holding out hope that they make the decision to go remote by Sunday. 

Do you have a laptop already so you would be able to work remotely if this happens? My office being shut down until the 30th now, we have a new temp starting but we don't know when as we don't know when he/she will be able to get a laptop.

And being someone who's been out of work as long as you, Jack, you absolutely need to go Monday if that is what they need. We're all pulling for you to succeed here.