COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[Balta1701]

7 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

If your argument is...President Trump is an asshole. I'm fine with supporting that.  Go start a discussion page with that as a title and let free the vitriol.  But the rest is utter nonsense.  China announced the Virus on December 31st...and by the 3rd of January we were offering experts to Wuhan to help combat it.  By January 6th the CDC issued a travel advisory against going to Wuhan.  By the 11th they issued a level 1 health advisory against going to Wuhan.   By the 20th the NIH began working on a vaccine.  Also on the 20th the FIRST American came down with it...an American that had come from Wuhan.   The administration declared the Corona virus a national health emergency on January 31st...and started travel restrictions...at that point there were SIX cases in the US.   I guess it was when we hit the 7th case that we should have shut down the country???   Study what is happen...the virus is very interesting...but please leave the idiotic hindsight someplace else.

And then for that entire next month we refused to take test kits from overseas, the CDC insisted on developing their own and they were faulty, and as a consequence we imported cases from Italy in Mid-Feb, they got to New York totally undetected because we went 3 weeks with almost no tests, the FDA was ordering private labs not to do any testing, there were several super-spreading events, and by March 1 there were probably several thousand active cases floating around New York City with 1 positive test. 

Washington and California responded to realizing they had major outbreaks with full shutdowns that week, but New York City and many other states dithered, allowing it to spread around the country even more over the next several weeks. 

The US didn't take advantage of that month to begin acquiring supplies, we were even shipping them overseas in February. We didn't come up with response plans, we didn't begin preparing people for any sort of actions they might have to take. We weren't working on 14 day quarantines for people coming from infected areas, we weren't even assuming community spread was possible. The people at the CDC, incuding Trump's appointee at the top, were a complete disaster. 

[michelangelosmonkey]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

And then for that entire next month we refused to take test kits from overseas, the CDC insisted on developing their own and they were faulty, and as a consequence we imported cases from Italy in Mid-Feb, they got to New York totally undetected because we went 3 weeks with almost no tests, the FDA was ordering private labs not to do any testing, there were several super-spreading events, and by March 1 there were probably several thousand active cases floating around New York City with 1 positive test. 

Washington and California responded to realizing they had major outbreaks with full shutdowns that week, but New York City and many other states dithered, allowing it to spread around the country even more over the next several weeks. 

Sure I'm happy to go with a narrative of "The CDC REALLY botched this".  The smartest scientists and it's their sole job to protect us from this sort of thing and they completely let us down.  That is way more interesting a narrative that the president did nothing and that's why we are where we are.  I'm also happy with a discussion about the virus and why the Chinese lied and lied and lied (and continue to lie today) and that led to tens of thousands of Americans dead.  Interesting.  The cure that biotech company in California said they found...interesting.  The possibly early introduction into the US...maybe as early as mid-December in California...interesting.  But comment after comment after comment slamming the president is lazy and boring.

 

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Sure I'm happy to go with a narrative of "The CDC REALLY botched this".  The smartest scientists and it's their sole job to protect us from this sort of thing and they completely let us down.  That is way more interesting a narrative that the president did nothing and that's why we are where we are.  I'm also happy with a discussion about the virus and why the Chinese lied and lied and lied (and continue to lie today) and that led to tens of thousands of Americans dead.  Interesting.  The cure that biotech company in California said they found...interesting.  The possibly early introduction into the US...maybe as early as mid-December in California...interesting.  But comment after comment after comment slamming the president is lazy and boring.

 

There is clear DNA evidence that even if there was any early introductions into the US, they did not become an epidemic. The strains circulating in the US today are dominated by the strain that erupted in Italy in February. They were imported into New York in February, undetected, and spread everywhere from there. ONly a handful of people in Washington and California ever got sick from direct strains imported from China.

There is no cure.

The Chinese did exactly what our government did when faced with the epidemic, they dithered for a few days and that allowed major spread. They had lots of people traveling for a holiday and didn't want to provoke a panic/hurt the economy out of it. They waited about a week from the point where they had clearly identified the new strain on about January 9 to the point where they had everything to the WHO on January 21 and that was plenty to allow a huge amount of spread. They literally did the exact same thing our government did. So, why is one interesting and not the other to you?

[southsider2k5]

17 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

You keep saying "hindsight," but a lot of other countries took different paths, paths that the experts were recommending at the time. The current administration decided to fire their pandemic teams and ignore the prep work done by previous administrations. They decided to downplay it as much as possible early on rather than ramping up production of PPE or testing or medical equipment. They are aggressively pushing the "reopen now" message when actual experts are absolutely not recommending that.

It's not hindsight. The criticism is happening in real time, with predictions of what the current actions will result in. Our first case was in late January, and we did basically nothing to prepare. We're still wasting a lot of time that the lockdown measures, which can't go on forever, have bought us.

Hell there elected officials who sold stock off of the briefings they got with a lot less information than the President had.

[michelangelosmonkey]

15 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

You keep saying "hindsight," but a lot of other countries took different paths, paths that the experts were recommending at the time. The current administration decided to fire their pandemic teams and ignore the prep work done by previous administrations. They decided to downplay it as much as possible early on rather than ramping up production of PPE or testing or medical equipment. They are aggressively pushing the "reopen now" message when actual experts are absolutely not recommending that.

It's not hindsight. The criticism is happening in real time, with predictions of what the current actions will result in. Our first case was in late January, and we did basically nothing to prepare. We're still wasting a lot of time that the lockdown measures, which can't go on forever, have bought us.

Fired the pandemic team is such a lazy argument.  CDC funding in the last year under Obama was $7 billion...it was higher in every year of the Trump presidency.  I showed the timeline...I'm not sure a reasonable president would have acted much differently.  But yeah partisanship!!  Go your team!   

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Fired the pandemic team is such a lazy argument.  CDC funding in the last year under Obama was $7 billion...it was higher in every year of the Trump presidency.  I showed the timeline...I'm not sure a reasonable president would have acted much differently.  But yeah partisanship!!  Go your team!   

But you realize that Congress plays a role in funding also, right? 

Each year, the President's OMB makes each agency create a budget, and the agency has to abide by that budget until Congress passes something. if the President's budget shows a cut, then things have to be shut down or slowed, sometimes for months, and only then might Congress step in. Several of the programs that dealt with epidemic preparation were eliminated based on these OMB orders over the past few years. 

The President's budget request this year for the CDC was $6.5 billion, showing a more than 10% cut. That was submitted to Congress on February 10. So, propose budget cuts every year, Congress doesn't step in for months, so the CDC is shedding preparedness ability the whole time.

[michelangelosmonkey]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

There is clear DNA evidence that even if there was any early introductions into the US, they did not become an epidemic. The strains circulating in the US today are dominated by the strain that erupted in Italy in February. They were imported into New York in February, undetected, and spread everywhere from there. ONly a handful of people in Washington and California ever got sick from direct strains imported from China.

There is no cure.

The Chinese did exactly what our government did when faced with the epidemic, they dithered for a few days and that allowed major spread. They had lots of people traveling for a holiday and didn't want to provoke a panic/hurt the economy out of it. They waited about a week from the point where they had clearly identified the new strain on about January 9 to the point where they had everything to the WHO on January 21 and that was plenty to allow a huge amount of spread. They literally did the exact same thing our government did. So, why is one interesting and not the other to you?

A few days???  They announced to the WHO on December 31st about it.  On January 6th a doctor and 13 nurses working on patients came down with it.  On January 20th HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of residents of Wuhan left the city for the new years festive and traveled all over the world...including one of their favorite overseas destinations...Italy.  Then January 23rd they closed up Wuhan.  

And you say we dithered about people coming in from Italy in February?  Come on Balta that is just partisan hate...and yes hindsight.  On February 18th there were THREE cases in Italy.  By the end of February there were only 1,000 cases in a country of 60 million people. But a week and a half later we shut down travel from Europe.  That is lightening speed.  Please tell me the day that you, with perfect hindsight, shuts down Europe. Because its nonsense. 

  

[Balta1701]

Just now, michelangelosmonkey said:

A few days???  They announced to the WHO on December 31st about it.  On January 6th a doctor and 13 nurses working on patients came down with it.  On January 20th HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of residents of Wuhan left the city for the new years festive and traveled all over the world...including one of their favorite overseas destinations...Italy.  Then January 23rd they closed up Wuhan.  

And you say we dithered about people coming in from Italy in February?  Come on Balta that is just partisan hate...and yes hindsight.  On February 18th there were THREE cases in Italy.  By the end of February there were only 1,000 cases in a country of 60 million people. But a week and a half later we shut down travel from Europe.  That is lightening speed.  Please tell me the day that you, with perfect hindsight, shuts down Europe. Because its nonsense. 

  

Europe? I dunno, but I am in this thread on record on March 3 saying "OMG we completely f***ed up we need to close down the west coast right now and this is going to be a nightmare everyone panic". 

I coudln't know about the NY outbreak...because the US refused, for whatever reason, to accept testing assistance from the WHO. 

[pcq]

46 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Of course the president made missteps.  I guess on a sports talk site where "I can't believe he threw the curve ball with runners on second and third and a pitch to waste" is de rigueur.   I also think when the loudest and most energetic voices that come here are Democrats, non-stop criticism about the president crowds out other voices.   Still this section was supposed to be about the virus and as I said...it started off interesting but the streams of hurled accusations followed by "I can't believe HE made this political" is "not compelling".  

As for the government scaling things up...again perfect hindsight.  The government should have just taken the government factories and started producing testing immediately.  In fact it's amazing that we didn't have an enormous stock pile of tests for this never-before-seen virus in government warehouses someplace.  And imagine our incompetence that 60 days after this never-before-seen virus started invading our country that we were not 100% prepared.  

If you start with the end point..."The President is an idiot" then you fill in the evidence to make it work and throw out evidence that doesn't fit the narrative and then shout it from the rooftops and have it echoed by people that think exactly as you do it may seem as if you have the truth.  It just doesn't seem convincing to me.  I think the president is an egomaniac and I hate his NYC aggressive style...it offends my Midwest sensibilities.  I thought President Obama was one of the most decent men to ever be president...but to say he would have done better is farcical.   President Trump is not trying to kill off his voters.  He and his advisors are trying to make heroes of themselves...which is exactly what I want my leader to do in a crisis.    

You are living in a fantasy if you think Trump's behavior is defensible. His behavior has been grossly incompetent. He is entitled to his politics but he is just not qualified. Let's move on. 

[michelangelosmonkey]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

But you realize that Congress plays a role in funding also, right? 

Each year, the President's OMB makes each agency create a budget, and the agency has to abide by that budget until Congress passes something. if the President's budget shows a cut, then things have to be shut down or slowed, sometimes for months, and only then might Congress step in. Several of the programs that dealt with epidemic preparation were eliminated based on these OMB orders over the past few years. 

The President's budget request this year for the CDC was $6.5 billion, showing a more than 10% cut. That was submitted to Congress on February 10. So, propose budget cuts every year, Congress doesn't step in for months, so the CDC is shedding preparedness ability the whole time.

And you realize that's how politics work...you ask for a 10% raise, I offer a 10% cut and we settle somewhere in the middle.  In the end the president signs every budget and it becomes his budget.  To not only not give him credit for his budget when it doesn't suit your argument but to say he was forced to swallow the bitter pill of increase CDC spending just seems silly.   And even if there was a little cut...$2.5 billion of the total CDC budget is specifically for the preparation of the country for Pandemics...and that has been the amount for a decade...so how did that $25 billion in government spending pay off when the monster was out of the cage/  

[southsider2k5]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Europe? I dunno, but I am in this thread on record on March 3 saying "OMG we completely f***ed up we need to close down the west coast right now and this is going to be a nightmare everyone panic". 

I coudln't know about the NY outbreak...because the US refused, for whatever reason, to accept testing assistance from the WHO. 

Caulfied has been here since the middle of January.

[michelangelosmonkey]

5 minutes ago, pcq said:

You are living in a fantasy if you think Trump's behavior is defensible. His behavior has been grossly incompetent. He is entitled to his politics but he is just not qualified. Let's move on. 

You know "I am right and you are wrong, I'm gonna sing the 'I was right song'" is not really an argument.  It is arrogant smugness. But still have a nice day.   

[StrangeSox]

16 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Fired the pandemic team is such a lazy argument.  CDC funding in the last year under Obama was $7 billion...it was higher in every year of the Trump presidency.  I showed the timeline...I'm not sure a reasonable president would have acted much differently.  But yeah partisanship!!  Go your team!   

The CDC does lots of things. He specifically fired the pandemic preparation team. Lots of people wrote, at the time, that this was going to leave us seriously unprepared in the event of a pandemic. Not hindsight, foresight. Really obvious foresight.

A reasonable President:

• wouldn't have been insisting in late February that this would never break out in the US.
• wouldn't be peddling snake oil cures or lying about testing availability or necessity.
• may have invoked the DPA much earlier in order to ramp up production of PPE and other medical equipment.
• would have implemented a national strategy for PPE purchasing and distribution rather than states having to do James Bond-level shit including guarding their purchases with state national guard forces so they don't get confiscated by the federal government and then disappear
• would have implemented a national strategy for locking down for a duration and then safely reopening rather than constantly going back and forth over whether he has total authority over states
• would not try to wash his hands and eventually say "well it's up to the states" while at the same time attacking any states that don't do exactly what he wants
• would not have stopped the CDC from issuing reasonable, science-based guidelines for states to reopen

That's just off the top of my head, I'm sure there's plenty more.

The failures here are not solely within the White House or at the federal level, though. You can find numerous posts from me and others in this thread criticizing Cuomo, De Blasio, and others. I think the House Democrats are still failing to put forward the policies we need and the leadership we're lacking.

You just keep saying any specific criticisms of the way the federal government has addressed or failed to address this pandemic are lazy without ever really addressing anything.  The federal government has failed here, and it's cost Americans lives, and their failures will continue to cost lives.

[bmags]

Meh day reporting wise in IL.

but it’s top level certainly seems down. 
 

21300 tests. 2300 positive. (Roughly) 11% 

[southsider2k5]

3 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

You know "I am right and you are wrong, I'm gonna sing the 'I was right song'" is not really an argument.  It is arrogant smugness. But still have a nice day.   

Ironically it sounds like something the President has said during this crisis.

[michelangelosmonkey]

9 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Europe? I dunno, but I am in this thread on record on March 3 saying "OMG we completely f***ed up we need to close down the west coast right now and this is going to be a nightmare everyone panic". 

I coudln't know about the NY outbreak...because the US refused, for whatever reason, to accept testing assistance from the WHO. 

I told my students January 27th..."well that's it, the end of the world has arrived...don't worry about your homework now".  I mean really, when China closed down all traffic in and out of a region covering 40 million people because a few thousand had a new flu?   There was something terrible that we didn't know about.  That they knowingly allowed hundreds of thousands to leave the area the days before the shut down and travel all over the world was negligently launching the missile?  Everything that happened after that was just waiting.  I was right but not proud of it (and thankfully this thing is not as deadly as initially thought).     

[StrangeSox]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

Meh day reporting wise in IL.

but it’s top level certainly seems down. 
 

21300 tests. 2300 positive. (Roughly) 11% 

It's a Monday! We always get low reports on Mondays.

 

I'm happy that my MIL is one of the negative tests today, though. It was fun having to wait all weekend. My boss took an antibody test today and will get those results in a few more days.

[NWINFan]

Yesterday was the first day in our county where there were no Covid deaths reported in the last two weeks. I'll take any good news I can get. I am now waiting for Jared to announce what a great success he is.

[michelangelosmonkey]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Ironically it sounds like something the President has said during this crisis.

Oh the president is incredibly arrogant and smug.   I just don't want to play the way the president plays.  

[NorthSideSox72]

5 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

US population in 1957 was 1/3 of what it is today....and we were MUCH less mobile.  A person in Springfield, Ill in 1957 was unlikely to go to NYC much less Milan or Wuhan.   We were also much more rural.  I think the 1957 virus is going to be very similar to that one...maybe a bit worse.  But we won't know for a while and certainty is a casualty of chaos.  

That mobility is another reason why fast action was needed. It was not taken. Trump did next to nothing until March, while the rest of the first world acted. Also, in 1960 (I can't find '57 specifically), the US had a population of 187M, which means it has not tripled since then, it has doubled. If you want to say COVID has so far been only 3 times as deadly, instead of 6 times, OK. Either way it's a huge failure. Semantics.

If you want to blame China for things, I agree 100%. They have blood on their hands. China was bad, so was Trump, though for different reasons (I don't think Trump was trying for deceiving the world, so much as he is just a continuous victim of his own magical thinking). Why are you trying to defend one and not the other, other than the very partisanship you seem to be blaming?

Also...

4 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

And all of these happened WITHOUT a shutdown.  Keep that in mind.

That. The states stepped up when TrumpCo failed, and it has helped immensely. And even WITH those measures, COVID has been killing people at multiple times the rate of similar previous events. It is far more transmissible, and causing far more death. These really are not disputable facts.

 

[StrangeSox]

 

 

[Jerksticks]

14 minutes ago, bmags said:

Meh day reporting wise in IL.

but it’s top level certainly seems down. 
 

21300 tests. 2300 positive. (Roughly) 11% 

So what does this mean?  Is it accurate to say that 21300 people felt sick enough to go get tested and 2300 of them tested positive for Covid?

[hogan873]

5 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

So what does this mean?  Is it accurate to say that 21300 people felt sick enough to go get tested and 2300 of them tested positive for Covid?

Some testing site are allowing anyone to be tested, with or without symptoms.  The one site by the WalMart in Joliet has been doing this for a few weeks.  You just have to make an appointment.  It would be interesting to see how many tested had symptoms.

[michelangelosmonkey]

6 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

The CDC does lots of things. He specifically fired the pandemic preparation team. Lots of people wrote, at the time, that this was going to leave us seriously unprepared in the event of a pandemic. Not hindsight, foresight. Really obvious foresight.

A reasonable President:

• wouldn't have been insisting in late February that this would never break out in the US.
• wouldn't be peddling snake oil cures or lying about testing availability or necessity.
• may have invoked the DPA much earlier in order to ramp up production of PPE and other medical equipment.
• would have implemented a national strategy for PPE purchasing and distribution rather than states having to do James Bond-level shit including guarding their purchases with state national guard forces so they don't get confiscated by the federal government and then disappear
• would have implemented a national strategy for locking down for a duration and then safely reopening rather than constantly going back and forth over whether he has total authority over states
• would not try to wash his hands and eventually say "well it's up to the states" while at the same time attacking any states that don't do exactly what he wants
• would not have stopped the CDC from issuing reasonable, science-based guidelines for states to reopen

That's just off the top of my head, I'm sure there's plenty more.

The failures here are not solely within the White House or at the federal level, though. You can find numerous posts from me and others in this thread criticizing Cuomo, De Blasio, and others. I think the House Democrats are still failing to put forward the policies we need and the leadership we're lacking.

You just keep saying any specific criticisms of the way the federal government has addressed or failed to address this pandemic are lazy without ever really addressing anything.  The federal government has failed here, and it's cost Americans lives, and their failures will continue to cost lives.

Do you know how big organizations work?  There is $3 billion funding within the CDC specifically for preparing "Protecting Americans from Infectious Diseases at Home & Abroad".  I'm sure within that $3 billion they had a special pandemic preparation team that was set up during the Swine flu epidemic and has just lingered around.   When they reallocated resources within that budget that doesn't mean they fired all those people and burned all the plans...it just means they didn't meet every Tuesday for three hours.  

* In late February there were 68 cases in the US.  Would you have closed down the country at that point?   Was it unreasonable to tell people to be calm at that point?

* I'm not sure what you mean by peddling snake oil sales..hydrochloroquine in conjunction with zinc and asythromyacine still could be useful...but your omniscience seems to know a cheap, readily available solution is not even worth looking at. 

* Back in February the demand was to ramp up production of ventilators and he did that but now that's not the narrative because it doesn't fit into your idea.   Shift the goal posts.

* Really?  President Trump today announces Illinois won't be getting masks because NYC needs them more...Illinois residents respond...well we're cool with that. 

* He got crap because he wasn't going to force the states to close...so he said he was going to and then he got crap for that.  In a time when no president has ever done anything like this.  But sure...you're criticism is fair and balanced.

* The CDC is a hammer and they see every problem as a nail.  They have one goal and that is to make every citizen 100% safe from every disease.  I have friends that started businesses in the last year that are just wiped out because of the shut down...lost everything...to protect the old and inform (90% of the deaths are people that are over 65 and/or have comorbidity).  We cannot afford to shut down forever even if the CDC wants to...want to see their funding levels when we have no federal taxes? 

So yes, as I have said, the president made mistakes, as would President Obama or Lincoln or Jefferson.   It's hard dealing with the unknown and it aggravating to have the peanut gallery shouting insults at every misstep.   Can't wait for President Biden to save the world.  

 

[StrangeSox]

16 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

 

* In late February there were 68 cases in the US.  Would you have closed down the country at that point?   Was it unreasonable to tell people to be calm at that point?

 

 

He wasn't telling people to stay calm. He was saying we had 15 cases and it was going to go to zero soon. Either he was profoundly unprepared to handle what was coming very shortly, something that he had been warned about internally for weeks by that point, or he was lying to the American people in a deeply damaging way.

16 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

* I'm not sure what you mean by peddling snake oil sales..hydrochloroquine in conjunction with zinc and asythromyacine still could be useful...but your omniscience seems to know a cheap, readily available solution is not even worth looking at. 

 

He continues to push unproven and dangerous fixes to this day. It's dangerous.

16 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

* Back in February the demand was to ramp up production of ventilators and he did that but now that's not the narrative because it doesn't fit into your idea.   Shift the goal posts.

Ventilator production was eventually ramped up after long delays. Thankfully, thanks to effective social distancing measures, our hospitals haven't been overwhelmed and the initial shortages didn't cost lives.

16 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

* Really?  President Trump today announces Illinois won't be getting masks because NYC needs them more...Illinois residents respond...well we're cool with that. 

Instead, states have had to bid against each other while the federal government confiscates supplies to do who knows what with them. A competent government would have ramped up PPE production in January or February. Other countries haven't seen the level of dysfunction we have.

16 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

* He got crap because he wasn't going to force the states to close...so he said he was going to and then he got crap for that.  In a time when no president has ever done anything like this.  But sure...you're criticism is fair and balanced. 

He has no direct power to force states closed or open. What he has done is claim that he has this power, told states to do what they think is best, had his administration release guidelines for opening and then strongly attacked those states and encouraged protests and defiance if they don't open up right away in contradiction with his own guidelines. 

 

16 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

 

* The CDC is a hammer and they see every problem as a nail.  They have one goal and that is to make every citizen 100% safe from every disease.  I have friends that started businesses in the last year that are just wiped out because of the shut down...lost everything...to protect the old and inform (90% of the deaths are people that are over 65 and/or have comorbidity).  We cannot afford to shut down forever even if the CDC wants to...want to see their funding levels when we have no federal taxes? 

 

The CDC is not advocating for locking down forever. This is more lazyiness. They in fact have put out guidelines for states reopening, though they were initially blocked by Trump officials. I'm not willing to simply write off the lives of the elderly or have some other disease. A competent federal government would be able to stem the economic damage, but the failures there include both parties in Congress. I too have friends who have suffered huge downturns in their business, but they both fully support taking sane, rational measures to address a pandemic. 

This is one lazy half-truth excuse after another.

Edited May 18, 2020 by StrangeSox