COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, Yearnin' for Yermin said:

You know that for a fact?

 

[michelangelosmonkey]

13 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

1918 was a Big One.  1957 and 1968 saw those death totals with zero shutdown or prevention.  2020 saw us go over 90k officially in TWO MONTHS (probably at least 100k in reality) with close to a full shutdown.  And death rate is deaths divided by cases.  It has nothing to do with populations at the time of the outbreak.  For example, the H1N1 story was one that got a lot of right wing shares early on.  For that one, they tried to equate 12,000 deaths in 60 million infections as being worse than Covid was at the time, because then Covid only had 38 deaths.  You were supposed to look at the 12,000 number and not understand that if you divided 12,000 cases by 60 million infections you got a mortality rate of 0.02%.  If you look at case numbers two months later of course instead of 38 deaths, you have 91,730 deaths in only about 1.5 million cases.  The mortality rate in the US has been around 6% versus the 0.02% of swine flu.  If we had the same number of covid cases as swine flu cases, we'd be looking at 3.6 million deaths with the same mortality rate. 

Now assume that we have been massively underestimating the test count, and literally 10 times as many people have gotten this, while instead of underestimating the deaths like we actually have we were spot on, so the mortality rate is .6% and not somewhere between the 1-4% estimated by most legitimate research, we would still hit 360,000 deaths if only 1 in 5 people in the United States got this.  If we were to push that out to the 70% number estimated to construe a solid herd immunity, they we would need 231 million people to catch covid.  Again assuming an incredibly low and unrealistic death rate of .6%, we'd be looking at 1.4 million dead Americans.  If we used even a 1% mortality estimate, we'd be looking at enough dead people as the entire population of all of Houston Texas, the 4th biggest city in the US.  A 4% mortality rate would be about 10 million people, or the entire population of New York City and Phoenix combined (the 1st and 5th biggest US cities).

Now go back and look at your numbers, if we scaled up the US 2020 population to match the scale of 1918 flu pandemic, we would count 2.2 million deaths by your math.  With a 1% mortality rate and enough infections for herd immunity, we are looking at 2.3 million deaths by COVID today.

if you want do a real comparison of the past, you have to treat  apples to apples.  That comparison should scare everyone.  The only reason we are sitting at only 90k, is because we locked down when we did. 

But see that's the problem with something unknown.  You make firm conclusions about what would have happened and what's going to happen and we just don't know.   I still can't figure out why there aren't ten million dead in China if all you say is true.  

 

[ron883]

7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

 

That's called being diplomatic. Should he have told them to fuck off from the start?

That was from January 24th. That is very early on in the grand scheme of things. He has changed his tune and called them out since.

Still haven't seen anything saying Trump trusts their death toll numbers. 

Edited May 18, 2020 by Yearnin' for Yermin

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

But see that's the problem with something unknown.  You make firm conclusions about what would have happened and what's going to happen and we just don't know.   I still can't figure out why there aren't ten million dead in China if all you say is true.  

 

Because they shut the entire region down using their army and police force for 2 months starting in January and made it a point to disinfect everything they could in order to get it under control 

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, Yearnin' for Yermin said:

That's called being diplomatic. Should he have told them to fuck off from the start?

Second, that was from January 24th. That is very early on in the grand scheme of things.

There's about 15 more that month.

Quote

 

Feb. 29, Coronavirus Task Force press conference:

“China seems to be making tremendous progress. Their numbers are way down. … I think our relationship with China is very good. We just did a big trade deal. We’re starting on another trade deal with China — a very big one. And we’ve been working very closely. They’ve been talking to our people, we’ve been talking to their people, having to do with the virus.”

 

 

[michelangelosmonkey]

15 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

1. We should have accepted testing help from overseas but Trump continues to assert for no reason that those tests are bad.

2. We needed to ramp up testing capacity in other ways and did not. As a consequence, we did not see the first cases imported from Italy.

3. Shutting down international travel was necessary, but it needed to have important restrictions. People had to arrive back safely, be held in a safe location, and then be quarantined. Neither of those happened, and that absolutely worsened the situation in New York and elsewhere. Other countries can handle this but ours can't. 

4. The Federal government needed to be out in front calling for people to stay home, not vice-versa. They needed to manage the shutdown so that it was sufficient enough to reduce the number of cases, not level it off. That lack of planning is why we still have a plateau in cases when so many other well run countries have gone down. 

OK that's all sounds reasonable but how...how do you have flight or airports that aren't cesspools for diseases?   How do you enforce quarantine?   How do you deal with damnable Americans that say "no one's going to tell ME what to do".  And are we certain that this is the right path?   How much economic destruction can we tolerate?   And what happens after we have a 12 month shut down and some idiot comes from China with it and infects five people?   We are right back here and the country falls off a cliff.   

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

But see that's the problem with something unknown.  You make firm conclusions about what would have happened and what's going to happen and we just don't know.   I still can't figure out why there aren't ten million dead in China if all you say is true.  

 

That's exactly what you just did with the earlier numbers to conclude this wasn't a big deal.  Now we are on to China again?  Did a billion people in China get infected?  Because that's what it would take to get those numbers.  Any proof or just more slight of hand?

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

OK that's all sounds reasonable but how...how do you have flight or airports that aren't cesspools for diseases?   How do you enforce quarantine?   How do you deal with damnable Americans that say "no one's going to tell ME what to do".  And are we certain that this is the right path?   How much economic destruction can we tolerate?   And what happens after we have a 12 month shut down and some idiot comes from China with it and infects five people?   We are right back here and the country falls off a cliff.   

Other countries have figured this out and had done so by March. You come into South Korea or Hong Kong, they test you on site, you moved to a stable location where they hold you for a few hours while they wait for test results, you get a GPS monitor and instructions to quarantine yourself for 14 days. You violate that, you get arrested and fined and that's what the GPS tracker is for. 

And the fact that we haven't dealt with it really at all...is going to produce WAY more economic disruption here, because we couldn't get the number of cases down. We're just going to "live with it" to quote my state's governor today, and in that situation, as many people will stay at home as humanly possible, saving as much money as they can. 

[michelangelosmonkey]

16 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

If this isn't about politics, why would you try to equate two Democrats responses to the President who has a WAY higher level of information and clearance than both the Speaker of hte House and the Governor of NY.  Why didn't he try to explain how serious this was to the country, instead of saying that Xi was doing a great job, this was a media driven hoax, and that it would go away by April?  Why didn't he stick with the serious message and try to prove his point? 

Because I was trying to show the hypocrisy of your position? Of COURSE it's not Pelosi or Cuomo's fault. It's a new virus, it was early day's and humans try to make the most of sketchy information and balance hundreds of interests.   No one knew until everyone knew.  

[southsider2k5]

Just now, michelangelosmonkey said:

Because I was trying to show the hypocrisy of your position? Of COURSE it's not Pelosi or Cuomo's fault. It's a new virus, it was early day's and humans try to make the most of sketchy information and balance hundreds of interests.   No one knew until everyone knew.  

Except that isn't really true. plenty of countries took early action and minimized deaths. 

[michelangelosmonkey]

15 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

 

January 24h we didn't know anything.  The Chinese had just gone to the extraordinary measure of quarantining 40 million people and Trump was being supportive and at the same time drafting a plan a few days later to restrict travel from China.  

[caulfield12]

32 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I really think it is fascinating what has happened in China.  I mean there should be ten million dead there, right?  Everyone has damaged lungs from the smog, everyone smokes, backwards medical care compared to US, massively crowded cities.   Sure they shut down Wuhan...after a MONTH...and after letting hundreds of thousands travel all over China for the New Years...to every village...to every big city.  They aren't telling us something or there is something unique about the virus.  There is a missing bit of evidence.  How can India have only a couple of thousand deaths?  Its really weird.

You keep talking about don’t play politics, yet you’re relying on evidence that you simply don’t possess about China.

Come here and look at the locked gates that are still up 4 months later blocking off every residential community from main streets.

Retesting millions five months later when we have under 20 asymptomatic cases.   The cost is down to $32 (all government subsidized) for the nucleic acid and pharyngeal swabs.  How much at those private testing labs without  health insurance, $300-500, roughly?

Does everyone in the entire country have an app tracking/tracing contacts with infected?   Green, yellow and red run by algorithm and tracked by GPS. One infected person gets on a bus, the entire bus or subway train is quarantined?

Quarantine hotels/convention centers for people before they’re showing symptoms and admitted to hospitals....then 14 day quarantines away from family after clearing?   Tracking devices on bracelets or ankles are being used in the US?  Thousands of dollars in fines or mandatory jail time for breaking quarantine (only about 15-20 people in Hawaii so far.)

Blocking off entire provinces from each other for months on end...with checkpoint after checkpoint after checkpoint on highways.

All food deliveries with printed temp checks of every worker from cook to delivery guy...3-5 involved at each step of the process.

People literally locked into their apartments.   Heavy fines for spitting or infecting others if you knowingly went outside while sick.  Nobody could go out for 4-6 weeks, all food ordered online and delivered.  Other than that time period, just one person every two days who was temp checked and had to sign in and out with national ID card.

People incentivized by the govnt for reporting “suspicious or potentially” sick people to the police or neighborhood association.  People rounded up by the police for trying to buy medicine from pharmacies or turned away from hospitals because they were sick but no space available....so many ended up dying undiagnosed at home (60% undercount).

Quarantined 80% of cases inside of one province....brought literally every single infectious disease specialist, mobilized nurses and most experienced doctors from Shanghai, Beijing, Army medical teams, built two mobile hospitals in 10-14 days to quarantine the 2000+ most critical patients away from everyone else, delivery after delivery of PPE through the airport that was shut down and dedicated solely to pandemic logistics.

Entire city locked down from Jan 23 until April 8th.  KG out for an entire eight months.   Most primary/elementary and middle school students still not back, only 9th and 12th because they have national exams which have been pushed back to July for the first time in history.   You have a culture where grandparents, aunt/uncles or the neighborhood and apartment complex looks after all the younger kids, allowing parents to work.  Not a single day care exists.   If anything, people are working an extra 4-6 hours per day at home compared to reporting to the office...on call literally 24 hours per day, because the boss always knew you were at home and would send messages throughout the night expecting an immediate response.

 

 

Edited May 18, 2020 by caulfield12

[Texsox]

24 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

1. We should have accepted testing help from overseas but Trump continues to assert for no reason that those tests are bad.

2. We needed to ramp up testing capacity in other ways and did not. As a consequence, we did not see the first cases imported from Italy.

3. Shutting down international travel was necessary, but it needed to have important restrictions. People had to arrive back safely, be held in a safe location, and then be quarantined. Neither of those happened, and that absolutely worsened the situation in New York and elsewhere. Other countries can handle this but ours can't. 

4. The Federal government needed to be out in front calling for people to stay home, not vice-versa. They needed to manage the shutdown so that it was sufficient enough to reduce the number of cases, not level it off. That lack of planning is why we still have a plateau in cases when so many other well run countries have gone down. 

3. We did do that on a small scale. San Antonio hosted cruise ship passengers. 

4. I believe one key role of the national government is coordinating national problems. This clearly was bigger than any one state and needed a strong coordinated response. A "the buck stops here" moment or Bush on the pile of rubble with a bullhorn moment could have solidified the nation. Instead we receive denials and suggestions it was all a hoax. Oops. 

[NorthSideSox72]

59 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Sorry...yes I was thinking of 1918...100 million people and 675,000 dead, 1957: 172 million people  116,000 dead, 1968 200 million people 100,000 dead.  Today 330 million 85,000 dead.  

So balancing for today's population

1918: 2.2 million

1957: 222,000

1968: 165,000 

Today: 85,000

And just for fun, bubonic plague Italy

14th Century: 200,000,000

How do you figure it is 6 times more deadly or 3?  Not semantics...math.   Either way its a deadly virus.  Viruses can be bad.  

China's actions were those of a totalitarian state that was purposely hiding things.  I've looked at the time lines we took and the deaths and trying to be fair minded thinking how do you decide where the prudent decision is.  I think the president took, and was deeply criticized for, some big decisions.   He missed on some too.  If you want to live in your tent and blame all unknown on him...whatever.  

Yes, math. Go see my original posts. You forgot the whole time thing.

47 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I was JOKING to my class.  But yes...the president should have done something...like declare it a public health crisis and put in travel restrictions from China a few days later...which is what he did in spite the criticisms of racism that he received (and both Pelosi and Cuomo encouraging their citizens to go to Chinese New Year celebrations over the warning of the Federal government.  But...you know...all Trumps fault.  What would have you done?   

 

42 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

And three days later he shut down travel from Europe.  You pull little quotes out of the 10 million words the president has spoken in the last four months and twist them into a narrative that makes him look like he wasn't doing anything.  The total deaths on February 26th from Corona virus in the US were zero.  ZERO!!!   Should we have shut the country down then?   Hello all Americans...I know no one has this and no one has died from this and the cure will cost trillions of dollars but we are going to shut this place down February 26th.  Honestly its stupid hindsight argument.  

For the record, he didn't "shut down" anything. His China "ban" stopped less than half the travel between them. His Europe "ban" included only parts of Europe, leaving out the UK and other countries that were heavily infected. They were visual moves, not ones that actually accomplished anything. And he did essentially nothing stateside until March, and even then never took anything resembling real actions.

People are going after you because you are defending the indefensible. No one is saying the virus is Trump's fault, no one is saying China is without blame, and no one is saying that the entire situation is on Trump's lap. None are true. They are saying that his lack of leadership and any kind of meaningful action, during a period when most other countries in a similar position were taking far more decisive action. Trump's response was, and has been, an abject failure.

Worth noting too: I've voted in seven Presidential elections so far, and voted for only three democrats (three GOP, 1 3rd party). I also tend more Republican for state offices here in Illinois. So this is not coming from some dyed in the wool Democrat.

 

[michelangelosmonkey]

11 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Because they shut the entire region down using their army and police force for 2 months starting in January and made it a point to disinfect everything they could in order to get it under control 

But half a million people left Wuhan province the weeks before the shut down.  The epicenter of this and they spread to every region of the country...every city and village in China.  If you do any modeling of a super infectious virus with moderate death rates China should be swimming in corpses.  

[NorthSideSox72]

Just now, michelangelosmonkey said:

But half a million people left Wuhan province the weeks before the shut down.  The epicenter of this and they spread to every region of the country...every city and village in China.  If you do any modeling of a super infectious virus with moderate death rates China should be swimming in corpses.  

Literally everyone, including people in China, who have been paying attention, are aware that China's death numbers are a vast undercount. Why they keep pretending otherwise is beyond me since the cat is well out of the bag.

 

[ron883]

Just now, NorthSideSox72 said:

Literally everyone, including people in China, who have been paying attention, are aware that China's death numbers are a vast undercount. Why they keep pretending otherwise is beyond me since the cat is well out of the bag.

 

Not true. I've seen multiple people here argue that Trump believes China's numbers. 

[michelangelosmonkey]

11 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

That's exactly what you just did with the earlier numbers to conclude this wasn't a big deal.  Now we are on to China again?  Did a billion people in China get infected?  Because that's what it would take to get those numbers.  Any proof or just more slight of hand?

What are you smoking?  I have NEVER said this wasn't a big deal.  This is a very big deal. Viruses are bad.  I didn't CALCULATE the numbers for ten million. How about a million?   It's about 100,000 in the US.  They have 4 times the population, are a month ahead of us on the curve and have a population with damaged lungs.   I don't believe their numbers but I'm pretty sure if the real number was half a million some dissident would have sent that information.   

[NorthSideSox72]

1 minute ago, Yearnin' for Yermin said:

Not true. I've seen multiple people here argue that Trump believes China's numbers. 

I haven't, but feel free to show me. Balta is saying he believes their numbers NOW are pretty low, because of the police state actions they took. And that might be true. But I haven't seen him say that the numbers from Wuhan in the original or early stages were accurate. I haven't seen anyone say that, in fact, other than Chinese state media.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

1 minute ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

What are you smoking?  I have NEVER said this wasn't a big deal.  This is a very big deal. Viruses are bad.  I didn't CALCULATE the numbers for ten million. How about a million?   It's about 100,000 in the US.  They have 4 times the population, are a month ahead of us on the curve and have a population with damaged lungs.   I don't believe their numbers but I'm pretty sure if the real number was half a million some dissident would have sent that information.   

Dissidents have done that. There have been any number of reports leaking out the sides about the bodies being processed and cremated, for example.

 

[caulfield12]

8 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

January 24h we didn't know anything.  The Chinese had just gone to the extraordinary measure of quarantining 40 million people and Trump was being supportive and at the same time drafting a plan a few days later to restrict travel from China.  

Because he cared more about the trade deal and relationship with Xi Jinping (and Kim, Putin, Erdogan, MBS) than hundreds or thousands or millions of Chinese people.  His only concern would be about their ability to buy pork, corn and soybeans from Iowa farmers, rather than Brazilian....or Wisconsin dairy products.

Two big, wonderful, beautiful oceans.  We have the best oceans, the best borders.   That was enough protection.   It worked largely through two World Wars, right?

[michelangelosmonkey]

15 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Other countries have figured this out and had done so by March. You come into South Korea or Hong Kong, they test you on site, you moved to a stable location where they hold you for a few hours while they wait for test results, you get a GPS monitor and instructions to quarantine yourself for 14 days. You violate that, you get arrested and fined and that's what the GPS tracker is for. 

And the fact that we haven't dealt with it really at all...is going to produce WAY more economic disruption here, because we couldn't get the number of cases down. We're just going to "live with it" to quote my state's governor today, and in that situation, as many people will stay at home as humanly possible, saving as much money as they can. 

Most Asian airports that I have gone to have always had those heat sensing stations and a lot of the populations already wearing masks.  You could say we should have started this after Swine flu when Obama was president but that might seem political.  Anyway I think this is an incredible lesson for us to learn for the future and I think for the remnants of us alive once this thing is gone we will rise up and rebuild a new greater nation.  

[michelangelosmonkey]

16 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

You keep talking about don’t play politics, yet you’re relying on evidence that you simply don’t possess about China.

Come here and look at the locked gates that are still up 4 months later blocking off every residential community from main streets.

Retesting millions five months later when we have under 20 asymptomatic cases.   The cost is down to $32 (all government subsidized) for the nucleic acid and pharyngeal swabs.  How much at those private testing labs without  health insurance, $300-500, roughly?

Does everyone in the entire country have an app tracking/tracing contacts with infected?   Green, yellow and red run by algorithm and tracked by GPS. One infected person gets on a bus, the entire bus or subway train is quarantined?

Quarantine hotels/convention centers for people before they’re showing symptoms and admitted to hospitals....then 14 day quarantines away from family after clearing?   Tracking devices on bracelets or ankles are being used in the US?  Thousands of dollars in fines or mandatory jail time for breaking quarantine (only about 15-20 people in Hawaii so far.)

Blocking off entire provinces from each other for months on end...with checkpoint after checkpoint after checkpoint on highways.

All food deliveries with printed temp checks of every worker from cook to delivery guy...3-5 involved at each step of the process.

People literally locked into their apartments.   Heavy fines for spitting or infecting others if you knowingly went outside while sick.  Nobody could go out for 4-6 weeks, all food ordered online and delivered.  Other than that time period, just one person every two days who was temp checked and had to sign in and out with national ID card.

People incentivized by the govnt for reporting “suspicious or potentially” sick people to the police or neighborhood association.  People rounded up by the police for trying to buy medicine from pharmacies or turned away from hospitals because they were sick but no space available....so many ended up dying undiagnosed at home (60% undercount).

Quarantined 80% of cases inside of one province....brought literally every single infectious disease specialist, mobilized nurses and most experienced doctors from Shanghai, Beijing, Army medical teams, built two mobile hospitals in 10-14 days to quarantine the 2000+ most critical patients away from everyone else, delivery after delivery of PPE through the airport that was shut down and dedicated solely to pandemic logistics.

Entire city locked down from Jan 23 until April 8th.  KG out for an entire eight months.   Most primary/elementary and middle school students still not back, only 9th and 12th because they have national exams which have been pushed back to July for the first time in history.   You have a culture where grandparents, aunt/uncles or the neighborhood and apartment complex looks after all the younger kids, allowing parents to work.  Not a single day care exists.   If anything, people are working an extra 4-6 hours per day at home compared to reporting to the office...on call literally 24 hours per day, because the boss always knew you were at home and would send messages throughout the night expecting an immediate response.

 

 

I appreciate you being there at the epicenter...and we all pray for you Caulfied.  I've been to China many times and I'm familiar with the totalitarian state.   I'm sure they have Hubei completely locked down.  But there are 65 cities in China with more than a million people.  Hundreds of thousands left Wuhan on crowded planes, buses and trains to every region of China.  There are 13 cities in China with more people than NYC and NYC has 25,000 dead.  Something is missing.  

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

Dissidents have done that. There have been any number of reports leaking out the sides about the bodies being processed and cremated, for example.

 

For the perhaps the tenth time here, AP and Reuters reported 42,500 urns at the time of Qingming Festival, which literally means tomb sweeping/cleaning.

Conservative websites went by some theoretical satellite imagery with sulphur dioxide in the air.

The numbers in that first 4-6 weeks were undoubtedly 60-80% to even 100% off because the hospitals were overrun and many older people died at home....there was no bus or taxi or subway, they were all shut down and shortages of ambulances.  Only private cars could get you there, which are only owned by 15-20% of population.   It was also miserable, cold rainy winter weather at that time.  Many got sick going out in in the rain and returning home after being turned away from hospitals, yet thrir time waiting had exposed them and eventually entire families.

If you count the number of normal deaths over a 3+ month timespan in NYC, you would end up with roughly 30,000-32,5000 “expected” or naturally predictable deaths.   Once again, everyone was take away immediately be teams in haz mat suits, no funerals, they were all immediately cremated and ashes put in storage.

So those 42,500 urns were there to take the ashes that had been piling up in crematoriums (we have just 2-3 major ones that deal with the entire city) for three plus months before the urns could be interred and people could actually go out for the first time.

So sure, instead of 4000 reported Covid-19 deaths....8-12,000 is definitely possible, but the same story applies to Italy, Spain, UK, France and the US undercounts as well.

[michelangelosmonkey]

25 minutes ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

Yes, math. Go see my original posts. You forgot the whole time thing.

 

For the record, he didn't "shut down" anything. His China "ban" stopped less than half the travel between them. His Europe "ban" included only parts of Europe, leaving out the UK and other countries that were heavily infected. They were visual moves, not ones that actually accomplished anything. And he did essentially nothing stateside until March, and even then never took anything resembling real actions.

People are going after you because you are defending the indefensible. No one is saying the virus is Trump's fault, no one is saying China is without blame, and no one is saying that the entire situation is on Trump's lap. None are true. They are saying that his lack of leadership and any kind of meaningful action, during a period when most other countries in a similar position were taking far more decisive action. Trump's response was, and has been, an abject failure.

Worth noting too: I've voted in seven Presidential elections so far, and voted for only three democrats (three GOP, 1 3rd party). I also tend more Republican for state offices here in Illinois. So this is not coming from some dyed in the wool Democrat.

 

Spain, Italy, France, UK, Sweden, Belgium, Canada all have more deaths per capita than the US.  So to suggest we are the only ones stumbling in the dark on this thing is just wrong.  As I wrote earlier...we are also uniquely positioned to have it hit us hardly.  Seems like the villains in this drama are 1) China  2) CDC, 3) WHO (for getting billions in funding over the years and being completely flat footed on this).  If you want to put Trump and other EU leaders up there...fine.