COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I think many of your ideas are useful.  I think the next time we will be better prepared.  I think there are zero presidents in my lifetime that would have ramped up production in January for a virus unknown outside of China at that time....or end of February when twenty Americans had it.   I think outside of a few in the CDC most people in the US were not that freaked out about Viruses.  I asked my parents if they remember the 1957 outbreak (in their thirties at the time) they can't even remember it...and it was BAD.   I was a young kid in 1968 and remember the Hong Kong flu...but more as a comedy punch line than something I was "afraid" of.  Sars, Mers, Swine flu?  The annual flu?  Meh.  Only 40% of Americans were even bothering with the flu vaccine.  But NOW....every weird disease is going to be treated as if it is the big one.  I for one wouldn't mind seeing 10% of the $700 defense budget being shifted over to the CDC. Of course we are always fighting the last battle...five years from now it will be a super volcano and everyone will be saying the president is an idiot because he didn't prepare us for it...or alien invasion...or polar shift...or solar flares that knock out all electronics.  So many terrors out there.    

So it should be relatively easy to understand why China (mostly) learned from the mistakes of SARS from 2002-2003, where they hid evidence and cases for 2-3 months rather than 2-3 weeks...because it already happened in their own backyard.

 

Combined with the previous experience in southern China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore....those countries also have some innate advantages:

A) universal/government-subsidized health care systems

B) ubiquitous adoption of masks for pollution/public safety/common colds or flus

C) universal adoption of mobile phone apps which add in tracking/tracing (here in Wuhan, you could go neighborhood by neighborhood and district by district viewing the number of cases on an interactive map, including warnings when someone who had been in close contact with someone with a temperature was in proximity to you)

D) the fact that locking down Westernized countries with individual houses as opposed to apartment blocks or grids is much more difficult logistically and politically

E)  the fact that the privacy/security rights in most Asian countries cede data/information to those national governments and/or tech companies already

F)  complete embrace of online economy for buying of groceries as well as cheap/affordable delivery system already in place

G)  manpower in public health already training and dedicated to tracing/tracking

H)  infrastructure/built-up resources for PUBLIC health testing....not over reliance on more expensive, private lab tests that are not going to be affordable or desired by much of the population

I)  longevity from healthier diets and more exercise, as most people don't own cars and have to exercise more frequently....walk to subways, morning exercise culture, etc.

 

[michelangelosmonkey]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

At the end of February there were probably somewhere between a few thousand and ten-thousand cases, concentrated in New York. There were a few dozen cases known because we had run a few hundred tests total. 

60 recorded cases out of 330,000,000 people at the end of February in US and zero deaths.   I suspect you are right...I suspect a lot of people in NYC, Seattle and California had it in December.  A monster came out of the mountains of China.  We had never seen this monster before.  Our Monster watch organization didn't see it coming and had no real plan in case we encountered a monster.  China sends the monster over to the US.  When the death rate from the monster stood at zero in the US...we should have had the country locked down. The president took some actions but fell short of screaming for everyone to hide in their basements.  Turns out the monster is pretty bad.  Monster kills a lot of people.  Moral of the story...President is a bad guy.     

[caulfield12]

10 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

F) models...repeatable double blind tested trial 

Which clearly disqualifies hydroxychloroquine.

[michelangelosmonkey]

1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

Which clearly disqualifies hydroxychloroquine.

But science in a crisis??  Throw spaghetti at the wall.  Like when someone has inoperable cancer and you can't get laetrile because it's not been double blind tested by the FDA so you have to go sit in your hospital room and wait for your death because...well why try stuff that isn't 100% safe.   

[Jose Abreu]

6 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Which clearly disqualifies hydroxychloroquine.

I can't believe this is still a thing. This thread, which was once a refuge from the craziness and conspiracies on basically any other public forum, has gotten hard to read ever since more people started taking Greg's bait and the False Equivalence Army came out of the woodwork... but even then, I can't believe that the latter is still arguing for that drug even after it was revealed weeks ago that the whole thing was just another profit scheme masquerading as health care (obviously, in addition to the drug not even working)

[caulfield12]

8 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

But science in a crisis??  Throw spaghetti at the wall.  Like when someone has inoperable cancer and you can't get laetrile because it's not been double blind tested by the FDA so you have to go sit in your hospital room and wait for your death because...well why try stuff that isn't 100% safe.   

But this is also the same reason we don't have an AIDs/HIV vaccine even though that particular disease has been around since the 1980's.

Science is REALLY hard.   Just wishing something into reality...Trump can make all the aspirational/hopeful/hopelessly optimistic comments he wants, it's not going to compress the normal timeline from 18-24 months down to 6 months.   And pushing through all the normal safeguards just to get a product out or at least announced before November 3rd isn't going to make our country any safer....it could likely have disastrous health consequences.

Even then, it would still take XXX amount of time to extend the dosages beyond first responders to a global population of 7.8 billion people.

[soulfly]

29 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I think many of your ideas are useful.  I think the next time we will be better prepared.  I think there are zero presidents in my lifetime that would have ramped up production in January for a virus unknown outside of China at that time....or end of February when twenty Americans had it.

Just want to point out, go read about Bush and what he did while in office in terms of preparedness for an pandemic.   We had stock piles of essential items, years ago.  All the things we needed months ago and still do now.  But as our government goes, it was used and not replaced, then essentially scrapped by those who came after him.  We have no idea what the government response would have been from any other president though, so it's hard to say.   However, there was at least one president in my lifetime that talked about a pandemic and tried to have the country ready for it.

[caulfield12]

6 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

I can't believe this is still a thing. This thread, which was once a refuge from the craziness and conspiracies on basically any other public forum, has gotten hard to read ever since more people started taking Greg's bait and the False Equivalence Army came out of the woodwork... but even then, I can't believe that the latter is still arguing for that drug even after it was revealed weeks ago that the whole thing was just another profit scheme masquerading as health care (obviously, in addition to the drug not even working)

You're absolutely right.  I think it's why both parties need to start thinking more like entrepreneurs.    And it's a huge weakness for the Biden campaign, breaking through.   What is our country going to look like 5, 10 and 25 years down the line?   What can we start doing now in terms of infrastructure investment, 5G, internet broadband/wireless access build-out, investments in the next generation of start-ups, chemists, biologists, AI, data scientists, etc.

We have the best public universities in the world....the best environment (still) for innovation and experimentation, the best and brightest scientists and engineers....many aspects of a capitalistic system that work extremely well and incentivize hard work as well as risk-taking, but we've got to get this figured out fast before we get behind over the next generation, and looking inwardly for all the answers, closing off borders to where 40% of next billion or trillion dollar enterprises are originating, that's just cutting off the nose to spite and face.

If we had formed a multinational group of EU countries, working along with Canada/Mexico, Australia, Japan, South Korea and the ASEAN countries that were not directly aligned with China, we would have been able to use that leverage to settle a lot of these ongoing issues with China 2-3 years ago.   As it stands now, we're just stuck in a status-quo situation...and there are too many countries around the world that need China as a trading partner as much or even more than they need the US (German auto exporters, for example.)

[greg775]

4 hours ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

Literally everyone, including people in China, who have been paying attention, are aware that China's death numbers are a vast undercount. Why they keep pretending otherwise is beyond me since the cat is well out of the bag.

 

China, pure and simple is our enemy. Wish we'd hear more anger toward China from our people, at least as much venom as Americans speak toward Trump. Our PC culture be damned; China is a huge enemy of the USA and a disgrace to the world considering their control of people who should be free and aren't. . Letting them have so much control over our pharmaceuticals is just sickening.

Edited May 19, 2020 by greg775

[greg775]

12 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

We have the best public universities in the world....the best environment (still) for innovation and experimentation, the best and brightest scientists and engineers....many aspects of a capitalistic system that work extremely well and incentivize hard work as well as risk-taking,

Now those are positive sentences. It's still OK to praise America. Thanks Caulfield. USA is the best!

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, greg775 said:

China, pure and simple is our enemy. Wish we'd hear more anger toward China from our people, at least as much venom as Americans speak toward Trump. Our PC culture be damned; China is a huge enemy of the USA and a disgrace to the world considering their control of people who should be free and aren't. . Letting them have so much control over our pharmaceuticals is just sickening.

Then we should be worried about India as well, 70% of the  pharmaceutical production is centered there...whereas most of the active ingredients come from China.

But Greg, how does it help the US RIGHT NOW to solve the current crisis...it's like doing to the 9/11 Commission in December of 2001.   100+ countries are working together to ATTEMPT to confront China through the WHO/WHA.     

What do you propose?   A nuclear attack?   Assassination?    The way to beat China is to out-innovate them, to out-think them, to put aside short-term profits for long-term strategic thinking.   How can a country without our rights and freedoms be such a threat to the United States?    It only seems logical that the majority of students around the world would choose the US to study, or to work in the US after graduation.   That's the strength of the US, the American Dream.    We've lost sight of that....it's now the American Dream for only a small subset of our population (many are going to do worse than their parents, financially, for the first time), and we've also lost sight of all the benefits that immigration can bring.   It's, not coincidentally, one of the major weaknesses of China...diversity of thought/opinion/political and religious belief.

 

 

[The Beast]

10 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Then we should be worried about India as well, 70% of the  pharmaceutical production is centered there...whereas most of the active ingredients come from China.

But Greg, how does it help the US RIGHT NOW to solve the current crisis...it's like doing to the 9/11 Commission in December of 2001.   100+ countries are working together to ATTEMPT to confront China through the WHO/WHA.     

What do you propose?   A nuclear attack?   Assassination?    The way to beat China is to out-innovate them, to out-think them, to put aside short-term profits for long-term strategic thinking.   How can a country without our rights and freedoms be such a threat to the United States?    It only seems logical that the majority of students around the world would choose the US to study, or to work in the US after graduation.   That's the strength of the US, the American Dream.    We've lost sight of that....it's now the American Dream for only a small subset of our population (many are going to do worse than their parents, financially, for the first time), and we've also lost sight of all the benefits that immigration can bring.   It's, not coincidentally, one of the major weaknesses of China...diversity of thought/opinion/political and religious belief.

 

 

The focus should be less on the Chinese government and more on education, educational programs and entrepreneurship at home. Biden needs to point this out while Trump rambles on fearmongering about China. Contrary to what 775 says, I couldn’t care less about China compared to what is going on here. We need to focus on the impact of automation and problem solving here instead.

[pcq]

2 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

I’m skeptical. Is it just coincidence he announces this hours after Dr. Bright is on 60 Minutes, which Trump live tweeted?

 

His doctor is giving him Skittles and Donald feels much better. 

[greg775]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Then we should be worried about India as well, 70% of the  pharmaceutical production is centered there...whereas most of the active ingredients come from China.

But Greg, how does it help the US RIGHT NOW to solve the current crisis...it's like doing to the 9/11 Commission in December of 2001.   100+ countries are working together to ATTEMPT to confront China through the WHO/WHA.     

What do you propose?   A nuclear attack?   Assassination?    The way to beat China is to out-innovate them, to out-think them, to put aside short-term profits for long-term strategic thinking.   How can a country without our rights and freedoms be such a threat to the United States?    It only seems logical that the majority of students around the world would choose the US to study, or to work in the US after graduation.   That's the strength of the US, the American Dream.    We've lost sight of that....it's now the American Dream for only a small subset of our population (many are going to do worse than their parents, financially, for the first time), and we've also lost sight of all the benefits that immigration can bring.   It's, not coincidentally, one of the major weaknesses of China...diversity of thought/opinion/political and religious belief.

 

 

I wonder if the brutal Chinese regime knows all about you since you've been there a while. Are you being watched closely? As far as what I propose, just a war of words right now and wish the people of the USA would wake up and realize what China did in this crisis is as bad or worse than even Trump. The world may never be the same because of this virus and the virus is the fault of China. One would be naive to think this is the last virus they will cause.

Not a bad link .... https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/long-fuse-big-bang/202005/better-way-stop-covid-19

Edited May 19, 2020 by greg775

[caulfield12]

23 minutes ago, greg775 said:

I wonder if the brutal Chinese regime knows all about you since you've been there a while. Are you being watched closely? As far as what I propose, just a war of words right now and wish the people of the USA would wake up and realize what China did in this crisis is as bad or worse than even Trump. The world may never be the same because of this virus and the virus is the fault of China. One would be naive to think this is the last virus they will cause.

Not a bad link .... https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/long-fuse-big-bang/202005/better-way-stop-covid-19

Yes, Greg, pretty much every foreigner is tracked.

My ex's boyfriend (believed that he was) was contacted and recruited for the Chinese version of the CIA because of his proficiency in Chinese.   They were a bit more opaque or ambiguous, they don't pop up at the Ivies and loudly announce "we're recruiting you for the Farm/Clandestine Service/Langley!"

 

 

This time, the public service announcement fell to Fox News anchor Neil Cavuto, who had a warning for viewers after playing the tape of Trump's remarks on Monday.

"If you are in a risky population here, and you are taking this as a preventative treatment to ward off the virus or in a worst-case scenario, you are dealing with the virus, and you are in this vulnerable population, it will kill you," Cavuto said. "I cannot stress that enough. This will kill you."

.....

“Is the risk of him dying from this drug higher than the risk of him dying from the virus?" Reiner said to CNN's Erin Burnett, in what was an extraordinary conversation given that it was about the health and mortality of the President of the United States.

"It's a very complicated question, and I feel for Dr. Conley. I don't know how I would come down on it," Reiner said, though he reiterated that other Americans should not take the drug.

.....

I'm not going to get hurt by it. It's been around for 40 years for malaria," the President said Monday.

His decision put Republican senators in a tough spot.

"He, obviously, is a believer in it. And there have been some previous indications that it could be helpful, but I would wait for the clinical trials," said Sen. John Cornyn of Texas.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/19/politics/donald-trump-hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus/index.html

Edited May 19, 2020 by caulfield12

[greg775]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Yes, Greg, pretty much every foreigner is tracked.

My ex's boyfriend (believed that he was) was contacted and recruited for the Chinese version of the CIA because of his proficiency in Chinese.   They were a bit more opaque or ambiguous, they don't pop up at the Ivies and loudly announce "we're recruiting you for the Farm/Clandestine Service/Langley!"

 

 

This time, the public service announcement fell to Fox News anchor Neil Cavuto, who had a warning for viewers after playing the tape of Trump's remarks on Monday.

"If you are in a risky population here, and you are taking this as a preventative treatment to ward off the virus or in a worst-case scenario, you are dealing with the virus, and you are in this vulnerable population, it will kill you," Cavuto said. "I cannot stress that enough. This will kill you."

.....

“Is the risk of him dying from this drug higher than the risk of him dying from the virus?" Reiner said to CNN's Erin Burnett, in what was an extraordinary conversation given that it was about the health and mortality of the President of the United States.

"It's a very complicated question, and I feel for Dr. Conley. I don't know how I would come down on it," Reiner said, though he reiterated that other Americans should not take the drug.

.....

I'm not going to get hurt by it. It's been around for 40 years for malaria," the President said Monday.

His decision put Republican senators in a tough spot.

"He, obviously, is a believer in it. And there have been some previous indications that it could be helpful, but I would wait for the clinical trials," said Sen. John Cornyn of Texas.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/19/politics/donald-trump-hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus/index.html

Kind of bizarre Trump is taking that drug. Mabe he has corona. Something fishy going on.

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, greg775 said:

Kind of bizarre Trump is taking that drug. Mabe he has corona. Something fishy going on.

“That seems to me to be a crazy thing to do,” said David Juurlink, head of clinical pharmacology at the University of Toronto. “If the drug had no side effects, it would be a reasonable thing to do.”

......
 

Even before Trump's comments, the head of the FDA’s drug office earlier Monday expressed concern for vulnerable (lupus, my add) patients who depend on the drug.

“It's a necessary drug for them and not having access would have terrible consequences," tweeted Janet Woodcock, director of the FDA's Center for Drug Evaluation and Research.

Trump's former secretary of Veterans Affairs, David Shulkin, expressed worry on Twitter that Trump's touting of the drug would influence the public to take hydroxychloroquine without data to support its use.

Other health experts worried that patients would gravitate toward hydroxychloroquine, even as another experimental drug — Gilead's remdesivir — has shown promise in hospitalized patients.

Aneesh Mehta, an infectious disease doctor at Emory University, said that some patients didn’t enroll in a trial of remdesivir he helped run because they wanted to take hydroxychloroquine after seeing media reports.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/18/trump-hydroxychlrorquine-health-experts-267066

 

 

[Dick Allen]

Some side effects are paranoia, hallucinations, and psychosis. So we may not be able to tell if it is affecting  him.

Edited May 19, 2020 by Dick Allen

[caulfield12]

Everyone on Morning Joe speculating that there’s pretty much no way he’s even taking it.

Too desperate to change the subject from IG firings, Pompeo and super shady Saudi arms sales.

Of course, the last time he did this in March, prescriptions spiked by a factor of 46x and lupus patients couldn’t get their hands on it.

“I'm not only the Hydroxychloroquine Club president, but I'm also a client."

 

Making it more amusing is his obliviousness about The Hoarse Whisperer’s ongoing mockery campaign when he retweeted this one.

Trump not only ripped the host but also the entire Fox News network, claiming he was “looking for a new outlet.” 

 

Edited May 19, 2020 by caulfield12

[bmags]

https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2020-coronavirus-drug-vaccine-status/

excellent resource to help keep track of all of the medical and vaccine research.

[bmags]

And this is a great piece to understand more about that Moderna newsyesterday

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/05/18/first-results-from-modernas-coronavirus-vaccine

[hogan873]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Everyone on Morning Joe speculating that there’s pretty much no way he’s even taking it.

Too desperate to change the subject from IG firings, Pompeo and super shady Saudi arms sales.

Of course, the last time he did this in March, prescriptions spiked by a factor of 46x and lupus patients couldn’t get their hands on it.

“I'm not only the Hydroxychloroquine Club president, but I'm also a client."

 

 

I have my doubts that he's actually taking it.  If he is taking it, then chances are he has tested positive for COVID-19.

[Dick Allen]

16 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

You know "I am right and you are wrong, I'm gonna sing the 'I was right song'" is not really an argument.  It is arrogant smugness. But still have a nice day.   

Initially the US refused tests from the WHO. When Pence was asked why, his explanation was that isn't what the US does, it develops its own. That causes a delay. The CDC tests were messed up, now the White House is trying to blame the CDC , but that is Trump too.  Maybe you are fine with the US response, but it was awful. Not what the US has done in the past and hopefully not a sign of what is to come in the future. You seem to rip people for saying Trump messed up, but don't have a problem with him or his adminstration saying they have handled this, just like they claim to have handled everything else, perfectly. If there was a problem it wasn't them. Nice leadership.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, hogan873 said:

I have my doubts that he's actually taking it.  If he is taking it, then chances are he has tested positive for COVID-19.

I guess that explains Utah and Florida...being among top states for prescriptions.

 

 

This was from way back in March.

State pharmacy boards in Texas, Ohio, Idaho and Nevada in recent days moved to restrict who can be prescribed the malaria treatments chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine, and how much of the drugs can be prescribed, according to documents filed by the boards. Texas has also limited prescriptions of the antibiotic azithromycin as well as another anti-malarial drug, mefloquine.

.....

The Nevada and Ohio rules dictate that the drugs can only be used for treatment not prevention of COVID-19. Texas and Idaho said that the prescription needs a diagnosis “consistent with the evidence for its use.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-pharmacies/states-work-to-limit-prescriptions-of-potential-coronavirus-drugs-idUSKBN2190XC

Edited May 19, 2020 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]