COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, Jerksticks said:

Wow that’s terrifying how easy this spreads.  
 

And now with the riots and many states opening, we’re for sure going to see exponential death across the board.  There’s no other possible outcome.  Death will grow exponentially since spreading will do the same. 
 

Only 2 million people have it.  
 

 

One more for you, same journal.

Quote

Most of the discussion around the spread of SARS-CoV-2 has concentrated on the average number of new infections caused by each patient. Without social distancing, this reproduction number (R) is about three. But in real life, some people infect many others and others don’t spread the disease at all. In fact, the latter is the norm, Lloyd-Smith says: “The consistent pattern is that the most common number is zero. Most people do not transmit.”

That’s why in addition to R, scientists use a value called the dispersion factor (k), which describes how much a disease clusters. The lower k is, the more transmission comes from a small number of people. In a seminal 2005 Nature paper, Lloyd-Smith and co-authors estimated that SARS—in which superspreading played a major role—had a k of 0.16. The estimated k for MERS, which emerged in 2012, is about 0.25. In the flu pandemic of 1918, in contrast, the value was about one, indicating that clusters played less of a role.

Estimates of k for SARS-CoV-2 vary. In January, Julien Riou and Christian Althaus at the University of Bern simulated the epidemic in China for different combinations of R and k and compared the outcomes with what had actually taken place. They concluded that k for COVID-19 is somewhat higher than for SARS and MERS. That seems about right, says Gabriel Leung, a modeler at the University of Hong Kong. “I don’t think this is quite like SARS or MERS, where we observed very large superspreading clusters,” Leung says. “But we are certainly seeing a lot of concentrated clusters where a small proportion of people are responsible for a large proportion of infections.” But in a recent preprint, Adam Kucharski of LSHTM estimated that k for COVID-19 is as low as 0.1. “Probably about 10% of cases lead to 80% of the spread,” Kucharski says.

That could explain some puzzling aspects of this pandemic, including why the virus did not take off around the world sooner after it emerged in China, and why some very early cases elsewhere—such as one in France in late December 2019, reported on 3 May—apparently failed to ignite a wider outbreak. If k is really 0.1, then most chains of infection die out by themselves and SARS-CoV-2 needs to be introduced undetected into a new country at least four times to have an even chance of establishing itself, Kucharski says. If the Chinese epidemic was a big fire that sent sparks flying around the world, most of the sparks simply fizzled out.

Why coronaviruses cluster so much more than other pathogens is “a really interesting open scientific question,” says Christophe Fraser of the University of Oxford, who has studied superspreading in Ebola and HIV. Their mode of transmission may be one factor. SARS-CoV-2 appears to transmit mostly through droplets, but it does occasionally spread through finer aerosols that can stay suspended in the air, enabling one person to infect many. Most published large transmission clusters “seem to implicate aerosol transmission,” Fraser says.

Individual patients’ characteristics play a role as well. Some people shed far more virus, and for a longer period of time, than others, perhaps because of differences in their immune system or the distribution of virus receptors in their body. A 2019 study of healthy people showed some breathe out many more particles than others when they talk. (The volume at which they spoke explained some of the variation.) Singing may release more virus than speaking, which could help explain the choir outbreaks. People’s behavior also plays a role. Having many social contacts or not washing your hands makes you more likely to pass on the virus.

The factor scientists are closest to understanding is where COVID-19 clusters are likely to occur. “Clearly there is a much higher risk in enclosed spaces than outside,” Althaus says. Researchers in China studying the spread of the coronavirus outside Hubei province—ground zero for the pandemic—identified 318 clusters of three or more cases between 4 January and 11 February, only one of which originated outdoors. A study in Japan found that the risk of infection indoors is almost 19 times higher than outdoors. (Japan, which was hit early but has kept the epidemic under control, has built its COVID-19 strategy explicitly around avoiding clusters, advising citizens to avoid closed spaces and crowded conditions.)

More at link if anyone is interested.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/why-do-some-covid-19-patients-infect-many-others-whereas-most-don-t-spread-virus-all

[Dick Allen]

Trump terminating US relationship with WHO. That is not good.

[bmags]

It's that time of day:

1622 new cases

21697 new tests

7.4% positive - not as good as yesterday but hard not to look at the last 30 days and feel a lot better - testing has gone up and cases have started to go down

 

[Texsox]

2 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Trump terminating US relationship with WHO. That is not good.

And his supporters cheer! 

[Balta1701]

2 hours ago, bmags said:

It's that time of day:

1622 new cases

21697 new tests

7.4% positive - not as good as yesterday but hard not to look at the last 30 days and feel a lot better - testing has gone up and cases have started to go down

 

I believe yesterday was the first day that Texas passed you in cases. Congrats to both states on achieving their goals!

[NorthSideSox72]

Illinois was the first to hit the CDC reopening guidelines. Our people have kicked some ass on this thing - the citizens AND the leadership. Not often I get to say nice things about IL state government, so this is a good opportunity. Pritzker was not terribly popular upon election, but his ratings are quite good now. I can make a list of imperfections in his response to COVID, but overall he's clearly done good work. As have most governors, really.

 

[Dick Allen]

At least one person who was at that Lake in the Ozarks pool party last week has the virus. Look for quite a few more soon. Dumbasses.

[soxfan49]

2 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

At least one person who was at that Lake in the Ozarks pool party last week has the virus. Look for quite a few more soon. Dumbasses.

Too bad Marty and Wendy Byrde weren't around to get their people to end that party before it got started

[Balta1701]

 

[caulfield12]

Isolation for 14 days 'unnecessary', claims Germany's top government scientist

A second wave of coronavirus infections can be prevented, says Prof. Christian Drosten

https://www.yahoo.com/news/isolation-14-days-unnecessary-claims-134829445.html
 

“In the beginning, of course, we needed the whole wide range of measures because we didn't know exactly what would help. Now we know the virus better, we know better how it spreads,” Prof Drosten said in an interview with Germany’s Spiegel magazine.

“The incubation period and the time in which you are contagious are all much shorter than originally thought.”

There is still no sign of a second wave in Germany almost six weeks after the country began lifting its lockdown, and Prof Drosten said it may be possible to avoid one completely.

“There is a theoretical possibility that we can get through without a second wave,” he said.

The way the virus is spread by relatively few people — the so-called “superspreaders” — means it is easier to control than initially feared, he explained.

“We have a few people who infect many others. That sort of infection is easier to control than one that spread uniformly under the radar, as we assumed at first.  If you notice where an outbreak is brewing, you have to hit it hard.”

Prof Drosten said a policy of tracking and tracing is key, but warned that testing all those who have been in contact with an infected person can be too slow.

“The latest analysis shows clearly you don't start testing all possible contacts. That will always be too late. Instead, all contacts need to be isolated. But for a week, not 14 days.”

[soxfan49]

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Isolation for 14 days 'unnecessary', claims Germany's top government scientist

A second wave of coronavirus infections can be prevented, says Prof. Christian Drosten

https://www.yahoo.com/news/isolation-14-days-unnecessary-claims-134829445.html
 

“In the beginning, of course, we needed the whole wide range of measures because we didn't know exactly what would help. Now we know the virus better, we know better how it spreads,” Prof Drosten said in an interview with Germany’s Spiegel magazine.

“The incubation period and the time in which you are contagious are all much shorter than originally thought.”

There is still no sign of a second wave in Germany almost six weeks after the country began lifting its lockdown, and Prof Drosten said it may be possible to avoid one completely.

“There is a theoretical possibility that we can get through without a second wave,” he said.

The way the virus is spread by relatively few people — the so-called “superspreaders” — means it is easier to control than initially feared, he explained.

“We have a few people who infect many others. That sort of infection is easier to control than one that spread uniformly under the radar, as we assumed at first.  If you notice where an outbreak is brewing, you have to hit it hard.”

Prof Drosten said a policy of tracking and tracing is key, but warned that testing all those who have been in contact with an infected person can be too slow.

“The latest analysis shows clearly you don't start testing all possible contacts. That will always be too late. Instead, all contacts need to be isolated. But for a week, not 14 days.”

You're going to have a lot of time on your hands when this vaccine is created.

[Texsox]

Texas high school athletics getting started for fall in two weeks with strength and conditioning camps. Finally back to normal. 

[caulfield12]

5 hours ago, soxfan49 said:

You're going to have a lot of time on your hands when this vaccine is created.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/18/coronavirus-vaccine-266679
 

Probably not....it will take 2-3 if not 3-5 years to fully distribute, and then there’s going to be global political/economic battles if it comes from either the US or China.

Maybe it’s better for the world if France, UK or Germany gets there first...or the Gates Foundation. 

[pcq]

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/18/coronavirus-vaccine-266679
 

Probably not....it will take 2-3 if not 3-5 years to fully distribute, and then there’s going to be global political/economic battles if it comes from either the US or China.

Maybe it’s better for the world if France, UK or Germany gets there first...or the Gates Foundation. 

I heard Gates is putting microchips in every body. Bill said we are already being tracked by our smart phones. 

[soxfan49]

3 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/18/coronavirus-vaccine-266679
 

Probably not....it will take 2-3 if not 3-5 years to fully distribute, and then there’s going to be global political/economic battles if it comes from either the US or China.

Maybe it’s better for the world if France, UK or Germany gets there first...or the Gates Foundation. 

I think when there is a vaccine it will end up like the flu shot: not required but encouraged. Therefore not everyone will get the dose and COVID-19 will forever be apart of our world, like the flu.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, pcq said:

I heard Gates is putting microchips in every body. Bill said we are already being tracked by our smart phones. 

They’re NOT already inside us?  News to the anti-vaxxers.

[Heads22]

I'm currently waiting for test results to come back after feeling like I've had a cold for three or so days. Hopefully, that's all it is.

[caulfield12]

 

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

Get ready for cases to spike all over yet again because of all the protests.

[Quin]

6 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

Get ready for cases to spike all over yet again because of all the protests.

Yeah, unfortunately the stay at home protests, early reopenings, and now the Floyd protests will all stack into another spike.

[StrangeSox]

If you want to listen to a bunch of infectious disease doctors, epidemologists, and virologists talk about this stuff weekly, you can check out this podcast. They seem to understand that they've gotten a broader audience than they're typically used to over the past couple of months and so do a decent job of explaining some of the jargon.

https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/

Interesting case/treatment updates and discussions of latest research out there.

Edited June 1, 2020 by StrangeSox

[bmags]

surprised but 20k tests were reported yesterday but only 970 positives. I'd imagine a very low tally tomorrow since so many closed today.

But yeah, today illinois is under 5%, go figure.

[caulfield12]

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
 

IHME looking like a range of 122,500-158,000, but it apparently hasn’t been adjusted yet for the protests.

135,109 official projected number for August 4th.

[Heads22]

I got tested Thursday and have still not received results. 

[Kyyle23]

1 minute ago, Heads22 said:

I got tested Thursday and have still not received results. 

Are you feeling mostly the same?  Better?  Worse?