COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[NWINFan]

There is no doubt that a bad result of the protests is the spreading of the virus.  Another thing that is certain is that this problem has been festering for a long time. It's long over due for addressing law enforcement problems in this country that include racism and abuse of the authority. Yes, address the problems, and don't push a 75 year-old man to the ground and then stop a fellow officer from helping him.

[southsider2k5]

I love that the this isn't a big deal crowd didn't make a big deal out of this until people started protesting over issues in the black community.  Then it's all WhAt AbOuT CoViD!¡!

[Balta1701]

A new record high in cases for our county today, and the county next to us has decided to stop reporting case numbers.

[greg775]

7 hours ago, Middle Buffalo said:

Why can’t Greg get a haircut? Why can’t Greg go to church? Why can’t Greg sit in the park? Why are you worried now? There have only been 60 cases in your county.

I said before I'm not "worried." I'm shocked how these videos show no concern at all. My buddy's flight to LV from KC was packed he said. Vegas is rocking, too. And Washington, D.C. has sooooo many protestors today/Saturday.

Right now there are so many people in Washington, D.C. it is beyond belief, all crammed together for speeches. The government should be ashamed for making people cancel weddings and holding them to 10 people. I couldn't get a haircut for 3 months? Have you seen this rally in DC today?? The virus spread is going to be monumental, no pun intended.

Our church is still allowing just 10 people per funeral. What a world. So hypocritical. Either covid is dangerous or it's not.

Edited June 6, 2020 by greg775

[Texsox]

2 hours ago, greg775 said:

I said before I'm not "worried." I'm shocked how these videos show no concern at all. My buddy's flight to LV from KC was packed he said. Vegas is rocking, too. And Washington, D.C. has sooooo many protestors today/Saturday.

Right now there are so many people in Washington, D.C. it is beyond belief, all crammed together for speeches. The government should be ashamed for making people cancel weddings and holding them to 10 people. I couldn't get a haircut for 3 months? Have you seen this rally in DC today?? The virus spread is going to be monumental, no pun intended.

Our church is still allowing just 10 people per funeral. What a world. So hypocritical. Either covid is dangerous or it's not.

Bless your heart life sure is confusing, and shocking, there in K-State. 

Is that 9 plus the deceased or 10 plus the deceased? 

[caulfield12]

 

[Jerksticks]

Looks like Philly is set for exponential death increase.  Of all the places, that crowd was so massive and dense there’s only one possible outcome.  Only one possible.  And that’s exponential increase in death.  Since only a couple percent of populations on average have the virus, this is the end game.  There’s no other possible way for it to shake out.  
 

Im in Texas and it’s wide open.  There are people absolutely everywhere.  The only possible outcome is a massive, massive, massive, massive spike in infections and death.  Same with Philly.  
 

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, Jerksticks said:

Im in Texas and it’s wide open.  There are people absolutely everywhere.  The only possible outcome is a massive, massive, massive, massive spike in infections and death.  Same with Philly.  
 

It's already happening. Over the last month and a half, this state has gone from an average of ~750 new cases per day to 1600 per day. Each doubling after this hits harder, and with more things open, may hit faster.

[greg775]

19 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

It's already happening. Over the last month and a half, this state has gone from an average of ~750 new cases per day to 1600 per day. Each doubling after this hits harder, and with more things open, may hit faster.

More things open?? How bout millions of Americans protesting every day and night the past 10 days? Corona precautions should ALL be removed and now. We've allowed it to spread wherever it wants over the last 10 days with millions of Americans out protesting both during the day and night.

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, greg775 said:

More things open?? How bout millions of Americans protesting every day and night the past 10 days? Corona precautions should ALL be removed and now. We've allowed it to spread wherever it wants over the last 10 days with millions of Americans out protesting both during the day and night.

[greg775]

I'm too dumb to understand the cartoon so no offense taken. Not sure what it was trying to say.

[bmags]

New case low, only 867 reported in IL, 4% pos rate.

[The Beast]

46 minutes ago, bmags said:

New case low, only 867 reported in IL, 4% pos rate.

It makes me wonder if phase four will happen in July or August. 

[bmags]

35 minutes ago, The Beast said:

It makes me wonder if phase four will happen in July or August. 

For our restaurants sake let’s hope July. 

[Balta1701]

11 minutes ago, bmags said:

For our restaurants sake let’s hope July. 

How's your state doing on contact tracing?

Our governor has decided to hire only half the recommended number of them and gave a $250 million no-bid contract to a company that had never done anything like contact tracing and no one else in the state seems to have heard of beforehand. Once again supporting my hypothesis that he actually is a coronavirus.

[greg775]

Had an incredible number of 22 people at our 5 p.m. Sunday Mass tonight in huge church. People are still scared to death in Kansas about corona. Most of the restaurants in Lawrence won't open even though they can open legally. It's mostly drivethrough. I must admit, if I were a church leader I'd allow singing again.

This is ridiculous. There's nobody in the darn church. We should be allowed to have beautiful music in our ceremonies. Not to be a broken record but it is disheartening to watch tape of all the protests and people chanting and we can't have 20 people (spread out every fourth row; max of 3 in a row unless it's immediate family) sing in a church cause of Corona. This is all nonsensical. I think a choir somewhere had several people get corona so we won't have singing until there is a vaccine or cure. Meanwhile I noticed the past four weeks there's been one envelope in the collection basket of the 25 people that have gone -- mine. I would assume churches will have a hard time keeping the A/C running at this rate of attendance.

Edited June 8, 2020 by greg775

[StrangeSox]

Congrats,. NZ

[StrangeSox]

Some good news:

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-good-news-11591399491

Quote

Good news: A new study finds that the novel coronavirus has become less lethal over the past few months. While there’s no evidence that mutations are making the virus less deadly, treatments have improved enormously as scientists have learned more.

Doctors have observed that the coronavirus case-fatality rate seems to have decreased considerably since the early days of the pandemic. But a pre-publication study from Italian universities and local public-health authorities comparing the case-fatality rates in two provinces (Ferrara and Pescara) during March and April is the first to show this might be true.

After adjusting for age and comorbidities, the study found the overall death rate declined by some 40% from March to April with huge reductions in those over age 80 (from 36.3% to 16.1%), and subjects with hypertension (23% to 12.1%), diabetes (30.3% to 8.4%), cardiovascular disease (31.5% to 12.1%), COPD (29.7% to 11.4%) and renal disease (32.3% to 11.5%).

The study’s findings need to be confirmed by more studies of fatality rates over time in other places. But the researchers note that the decline in death rates is unlikely to be due to less crowded hospitals since infection rates were low in the two provinces and never exceeded the intensive care unit capacity. Hospital utilization could confound results in other hot spots.

They say their study confirms anecdotes from expert physicians that “the early administration of more tailored medications, is considerably improving the clinical course of COVID-19.” Doctors are using a cocktail of targeted therapies including repurposed HIV antivirals, anticoagulants and monoclonal antibodies like tocilizumab that lower inflammatory cytokine attacks on organs.

A European Journal of Internal Medicine study last month found that two of 62 patients receiving tocilizumab died compared to 11 of 23 in a group with similar characteristics. Randomized clinical trials are needed to draw solid conclusions about the efficacy of drug treatments, but they usually take months. So doctors have been experimenting and learning on the fly.

We now know, for instance, that deaths among severely ill patients often result from an overreactive immune response known as “cytokine storms” as well as systemic blood clots. The Food and Drug Administration this week approved a new blood test by Roche that measures levels of the inflammatory-causing protein interleukin-6 and can help predict patients at risk for cytokine storms. Using drugs to break up blood clots and calm down the immune system earlier can prevent severe cases from turning deadly.

Doctors have also observed that some patients with fatally low oxygen levels aren’t gasping for air or losing consciousness and their symptoms resemble altitude sickness—dizziness, nausea and headaches—more than pneumonia or acute respiratory distress. As a result they are using less intensive ventilation such as nasal cannulas and sleep-apnea machines.

Mechanical ventilators can cause long-term brain and respiratory damage as well as secondary infections. A study in the Journal of the American Medical Association has found that a shockingly high 80% of those between ages 18 and 65 who were placed on ventilators in New York City died while just 2.4% were discharged alive during the study period. More targeted therapeutics can reduce the need for ventilators.

The FDA last month approved Gilead’s antiviral remdesivir for emergency use after a phase-one trial found that the drug reduced recovery times in hospitalized patients on average to 11 days compared to 15 days for those in a control group. Remdesivir stops the virus from replicating, so it may be even more beneficial if administered earlier in the illness.

The treatment learning curve has been as steep as the infection curve. But even if there’s a second Covid-19 wave, it is likely to be less deadly than the first.

 

[Jerksticks]

8 hours ago, greg775 said:

Had an incredible number of 22 people at our 5 p.m. Sunday Mass tonight in huge church. People are still scared to death in Kansas about corona. Most of the restaurants in Lawrence won't open even though they can open legally. It's mostly drivethrough. I must admit, if I were a church leader I'd allow singing again.

This is ridiculous. There's nobody in the darn church. We should be allowed to have beautiful music in our ceremonies. Not to be a broken record but it is disheartening to watch tape of all the protests and people chanting and we can't have 20 people (spread out every fourth row; max of 3 in a row unless it's immediate family) sing in a church cause of Corona. This is all nonsensical. I think a choir somewhere had several people get corona so we won't have singing until there is a vaccine or cure. Meanwhile I noticed the past four weeks there's been one envelope in the collection basket of the 25 people that have gone -- mine. I would assume churches will have a hard time keeping the A/C running at this rate of attendance.

This is all true.  But it’s a good thing Christianity doesn’t require congregating in churches to work on your spiritual growth and relationship with God.  These are tough times for all, but luckily challenging yourself to improve your character and be a better example of grace & humility HASN’T been cancelled, closed, or open to a only  a few at a time.  
 

Go out there and help & inspire brother.  

[StrangeSox]

On 6/5/2020 at 7:28 PM, bmags said:

 

Guys - reporting the monthly jobs numbers is pretty hard 3 days post months end. There are always huge revisions. 

The weird thing is that BLS was completely upfront with the systemic errors in their numbers this month. This is in their original press release:

 

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

 | However, there was also a large number of workers who were classified as employed but |
 | absent from work. As was the case in March and April, household survey interviewers   |
 | were instructed to classify employed persons absent from work due to coronavirus-     |
 | related business closures as unemployed on temporary layoff. However, it is apparent  |
 | that not all such workers were so classified. BLS and the Census Bureau are           |
 | investigating why this misclassification error continues to occur and are taking      |
 | additional steps to address the issue.						 |
 |											 |
 | If the workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to "other       |
 | reasons" (over and above the number absent for other reasons in a typical May) had    |
 | been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff, the overall unemployment rate      |
 | would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported (on a not seasonally   |
 | adjusted basis). However, according to usual practice, the data from the household    |
 | survey are accepted as recorded. To maintain data integrity, no ad hoc actions are    |
 | taken to reclassify survey responses. 

 

They say right there that the data is misclassified and that the U-3 is 3 points higher! Outside of a tweet from Minnesota Public Radio, though, I haven't seen the media reporting anything but the "2.5M jobs gained; wow!" top line numbers.

 

e: 

WaPo did a writeup

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/05/may-2020-jobs-report-misclassification-error/

 

Edited June 8, 2020 by StrangeSox

[caulfield12]

Dow only about 2,500 points off all-time high of February 13th...

[caulfield12]

21 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

has found that a shockingly high 80% of those between ages 18 and 65 who were placed on ventilators in New York City died while just 2.4% were discharged alive during the study period.

Seems there must be something missing....?   A bit awkward phrasing.   It can’t really be stating that up to 97.6% that went on ventilators in those age ranges died eventually, can it?   I guess it means that somewhere between 80-97.6% died, but hopefully much closer to 85% than 90-95%.

Edited June 8, 2020 by caulfield12

[StrangeSox]

They just hadn't yet been discharged by the time the study closed. So very long hospitalization.

[gatnom]

6 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Seems there must be something missing....only 2.4% over age 80 were discharged after going on ventilators?   It can’t really be stating that 97.6% that went on ventilators in those age ranges died, can it? 

I remember reading a couple months ago that the mortality rate of ventilators was around 80%. Can't recall where, though.

[Dick Allen]

29 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

The weird thing is that BLS was completely upfront with the systemic errors in their numbers this month. This is in their original press release:

 

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

 | However, there was also a large number of workers who were classified as employed but |
 | absent from work. As was the case in March and April, household survey interviewers   |
 | were instructed to classify employed persons absent from work due to coronavirus-     |
 | related business closures as unemployed on temporary layoff. However, it is apparent  |
 | that not all such workers were so classified. BLS and the Census Bureau are           |
 | investigating why this misclassification error continues to occur and are taking      |
 | additional steps to address the issue.						 |
 |											 |
 | If the workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to "other       |
 | reasons" (over and above the number absent for other reasons in a typical May) had    |
 | been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff, the overall unemployment rate      |
 | would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported (on a not seasonally   |
 | adjusted basis). However, according to usual practice, the data from the household    |
 | survey are accepted as recorded. To maintain data integrity, no ad hoc actions are    |
 | taken to reclassify survey responses. 

 

They say right there that the data is misclassified and that the U-3 is 3 points higher! Outside of a tweet from Minnesota Public Radio, though, I haven't seen the media reporting anything but the "2.5M jobs gained; wow!" top line numbers.

 

e: 

WaPo did a writeup

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/05/may-2020-jobs-report-misclassification-error/

 

The first expert I saw on TV after the numbers came out said be very skeptical. It was the every Labor Dept. employee is working from home and a lot of businesses are closed and probably didn't report. 

 

• The Labor Department's jobs report — which surveys individuals and businesses during the week of May 16 — found there were 20,985,000 unemployed people.
• That would mean there were 9 million more people receiving unemployment benefits than there were unemployed people during the exact same survey week.

So the 20% most were saying it was is probably pretty accurate.

Edited June 8, 2020 by Dick Allen