COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[southsider2k5]

9 minutes ago, StateStSports said:

Can we just put a bubble around the state? 

Unfortunately NWIndiana is filled with Illinois folks every weekend,  so it won't last.

[StateStSports]

We can take NW Indiana Sox fans in a weird extended bubble. 

[hogan873]

8 hours ago, bmags said:

Illinois has another best day.

2.5% pos rate, less than 500 new cases.

Also a three day stretch of less than 30 deaths.

For so long IL was on this horrendously slow decline while other states seemed to solve it. It’s very weird being now one of the few states still seeing falling rates.

Shows that the state's plans are working.  There were plenty of people who complained, said the governor was out of his mind.  Hell, there are still people complaining, not bothering to recognize the results.  We're on pace to go to phase 4 in about two weeks.  Restaurants and movie theaters can open, schools will be able to open to in-person learning.  Two months ago, being here seemed impossible.

Gee, imagine if we had a national response similar to the way Illinois and New York responded.

[Kyyle23]

13 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

"I looked in and saw the grocery store was on fire. Before going in, I therefore lit 3 other fires, just to make sure."

I think it is more like "I saw that nobody was standing there, on fire, so I walked in"

[bmags]

So we are over two weeks from the initial protests but still only about 8 days from the biggest protests. But so far so good.

[NorthSideSox72]

10 hours ago, bmags said:

Illinois has another best day.

2.5% pos rate, less than 500 new cases.

Also a three day stretch of less than 30 deaths.

For so long IL was on this horrendously slow decline while other states seemed to solve it. It’s very weird being now one of the few states still seeing falling rates.

I'm a little confused on the Phase 4 determinant around positivity rate. Seems like there is conflicting information. Does it need to be five percentage points down from when we entered Phase 3, which was May 27th? Or does it need to be five percentage points down over the last 14 days (so from June 11th to 25th I guess)? I have this fear that, after Illinois doing so well to go from like 20% range all the way down to the 3-5% range, that we did SO well that it may not even be realistic to push it down any further. Then on June 25th, if the rate has stayed basically the same or maybe gone slightly up even, despite the fact that that is a really good spot to be in (along with the other measures), we won't be able to go to Phase 4.

 

[bmags]

9 minutes ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

I'm a little confused on the Phase 4 determinant around positivity rate. Seems like there is conflicting information. Does it need to be five percentage points down from when we entered Phase 3, which was May 27th? Or does it need to be five percentage points down over the last 14 days (so from June 11th to 25th I guess)? I have this fear that, after Illinois doing so well to go from like 20% range all the way down to the 3-5% range, that we did SO well that it may not even be realistic to push it down any further. Then on June 25th, if the rate has stayed basically the same or maybe gone slightly up even, despite the fact that that is a really good spot to be in (along with the other measures), we won't be able to go to Phase 4.

 

Eh, I think it will be determined based on how well our tracer program is up and running at that point. And if I’m two weeks we are hovering around under 3%, I imagine the regions will inform it - chicago still has room to fall. 
 

Also if we have two weeks of under 500 new cases the capacity will be really strong.

 

Also great news today :

https://apnews.com/89d963958b042cc921e64ab3eff5a74d?utm_medium=AP&utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=SocialFlow

[Dick Allen]

2 hours ago, hogan873 said:

Shows that the state's plans are working.  There were plenty of people who complained, said the governor was out of his mind.  Hell, there are still people complaining, not bothering to recognize the results.  We're on pace to go to phase 4 in about two weeks.  Restaurants and movie theaters can open, schools will be able to open to in-person learning.  Two months ago, being here seemed impossible.

Gee, imagine if we had a national response similar to the way Illinois and New York responded.

Don't you know the only reason there have been all these outbreaks is because of POTUS' greatest testing ever. Many have said the greatest testing of anything anyone has ever done.  They are getting calls from all over the world wondering how it was done. If it wasn't for testing, there would be very few, if any Covid 19 cases in the US.

It still boggles my mind how many people buy this crap.

Edited June 16, 2020 by Dick Allen

[caulfield12]

Many of you may have heard that the pandemic will be over when we achieve herd immunity. For herd immunity to protect us, however, we need to get between 60% to 80% of the US population immune to this virus. If we reach 80% of the population being immune, the virus would have a very hard time finding a new susceptible host to infect.

But immunity can only occur by natural infection or vaccination, and there is no guarantee that immunity from natural infection will be long-lasting. Only time will tell. 

The pandemic has stopped my wife and I from taking our baby back to America

Even in the hardest-hit states, such as New York, only 20% of the residents of New York City have been exposed and successfully fought off the infection, compared to only 2.6% of the people in the Finger Lakes region of the state. This means that the city would need another two to three outbreaks, similar in magnitude to the one in April, to achieve herd immunity through natural exposure. The rest of the state would need years to get to this same goal. 

Epidemiologists believe that only 2-5% of the US population nationally has beenexposed to the virus and recovered, and infections have not been distributed evenly throughout the population.

This puts us a long way from beating this virus through natural exposure and the prospect of a successful vaccine remains uncertain. Therefore, we must find a way to live with this virus without sacrificing 1% of our population or going back to the strict restrictions of March and April.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/opinions/what-pandemic-means-for-summer-opinion-bromage/index.html

 

[hogan873]

1 hour ago, Dick Allen said:

Don't you know the only reason there have been all these outbreaks is because of POTUS' greatest testing ever. Many have said the greatest testing of anything anyone has ever done.  They are getting calls from all over the world wondering how it was done. If it wasn't for testing, there would be very few, if any Covid 19 cases in the US.

It still boggles my mind how many people buy this crap.

The best tests.  No one knows more about testing.

There would also be a lot fewer DUIs if police didn't give sobriety tests.

[hogan873]

2 hours ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

I'm a little confused on the Phase 4 determinant around positivity rate. Seems like there is conflicting information. Does it need to be five percentage points down from when we entered Phase 3, which was May 27th? Or does it need to be five percentage points down over the last 14 days (so from June 11th to 25th I guess)? I have this fear that, after Illinois doing so well to go from like 20% range all the way down to the 3-5% range, that we did SO well that it may not even be realistic to push it down any further. Then on June 25th, if the rate has stayed basically the same or maybe gone slightly up even, despite the fact that that is a really good spot to be in (along with the other measures), we won't be able to go to Phase 4.

 

According to the state's website on COVID, all regions are currently meeting the requirements for Phase 4.  All metrics beside Percent Positivity Change Last 14 Days are well into the green for Phase 4.  The 14-day metric is still green, but a few days of spikes could push it back.  Since we haven't seen a big spike yet from the protests, I'm still feeling pretty good about getting to Phase 4 by the end of the month.

[DisneyTaxDad]

I do have some concerns with Illinois' strategy, it seems we have done poorer than most:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

Last week 82% of deaths can be traced to LTC facilities; overall 55% are clearly related to LTC facilities but the number may be higher.  Illinois has failed to protect our most vulnerable.

[southsider2k5]

20 minutes ago, hogan873 said:

The best tests.  No one knows more about testing.

There would also be a lot fewer DUIs if police didn't give sobriety tests.

On the bright side, now we know how the President doesn't have any STDs.

[bmags]

34 minutes ago, hogan873 said:

According to the state's website on COVID, all regions are currently meeting the requirements for Phase 4.  All metrics beside Percent Positivity Change Last 14 Days are well into the green for Phase 4.  The 14-day metric is still green, but a few days of spikes could push it back.  Since we haven't seen a big spike yet from the protests, I'm still feeling pretty good about getting to Phase 4 by the end of the month.

but you can see his concern for some regions where the percent change has been 0 (they also happen to be about 1% positive total). If those go up to 2% positive, they would fail to meet the requirement.

[hogan873]

20 minutes ago, bmags said:

but you can see his concern for some regions where the percent change has been 0 (they also happen to be about 1% positive total). If those go up to 2% positive, they would fail to meet the requirement.

No, I agree.  Phase 4 is the last phase before a vaccine or otherwise herd immunity.  I can understand having challenging goals in order to get there.  I wonder, though, if a region with very low positivity shows a slight increase but the rate is still very low if it would still be permitted to move forward.  There would have to be some sort of consideration around that.

[bmags]

30 minutes ago, hogan873 said:

No, I agree.  Phase 4 is the last phase before a vaccine or otherwise herd immunity.  I can understand having challenging goals in order to get there.  I wonder, though, if a region with very low positivity shows a slight increase but the rate is still very low if it would still be permitted to move forward.  There would have to be some sort of consideration around that.

My guess - they will defer to the local depts. of public health.

[StrangeSox]

Going to be interesting to see what they do about in-person learning at k-12 schools. There simply isn't the physical space to do 6ft distancing with the ever-increasing class sizes.

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

Going to be interesting to see what they do about in-person learning at k-12 schools. There simply isn't the physical space to do 6ft distancing with the ever-increasing class sizes.

Don't just say K-12, include universities, they're going to be a mess too.

Anyway, here's what a country that isn't just going to let it burn through everywhere looks like (Good read overall for contrast to the US)

https://www.ft.com/content/d68d6292-0486-4bfc-bf5c-54ce850a3f7a

Quote

By the time eight-year-old Lee Ji-ho is bundled out the door for his one day a week of in-class schooling, his mother has already completed an online form detailing his temperature, any signs of a cough or other respiratory complaints, and whether any family members have recently arrived home from overseas or are in quarantine. Once at school in Seoul’s Seocho district, he sits metres apart from classmates and is instructed not to talk to friends — not even during lunch, where instead he eats in solitude, separated from the other children by a plastic divider.

 

[StateStSports]

2 hours ago, DisneyTaxDad said:

I do have some concerns with Illinois' strategy, it seems we have done poorer than most:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

Last week 82% of deaths can be traced to LTC facilities; overall 55% are clearly related to LTC facilities but the number may be higher.  Illinois has failed to protect our most vulnerable.

Greg is that you?

[Dick Allen]

2 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

On the bright side, now we know how the President doesn't have any STDs.

They should quit reporting job losses. Then there would be no unemployment.

[southsider2k5]

55 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

Going to be interesting to see what they do about in-person learning at k-12 schools. There simply isn't the physical space to do 6ft distancing with the ever-increasing class sizes.

There isn't the physical space in buildings, even if they wanted to do it properly.  There just aren't enough rooms available.

[southsider2k5]

2 hours ago, DisneyTaxDad said:

I do have some concerns with Illinois' strategy, it seems we have done poorer than most:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

Last week 82% of deaths can be traced to LTC facilities; overall 55% are clearly related to LTC facilities but the number may be higher.  Illinois has failed to protect our most vulnerable.

There is an obvious answer as to why.  Illinois has brought down the most controllable death counts by enacting solid protocols in public, so those totals have been minimized when compared with others.  Controlling those numbers in tightly controlled populations is nearly impossible, so instead of having lots of public deaths to delude this number by, Illinois percentage here looks worse. 

[southsider2k5]

10 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

They should quit reporting job losses. Then there would be no unemployment.

Sadly this is exactly how unemployment works.  They report the second most conservative number so it doesn't look as bad in terms of percentage.  Also we know for a fact that the 13.3% number is more like 20% when the statistical problems with the last reporting are taken into account.

[Iwritecode]

1 hour ago, StrangeSox said:

Going to be interesting to see what they do about in-person learning at k-12 schools. There simply isn't the physical space to do 6ft distancing with the ever-increasing class sizes.

Buses are going to be a bigger problem.  Especially the smaller buses that transport the special-needs kids. Many of whom will likely not wear a mask or keep it on.

My mom works for a company that does exactly that except they use suburbans. Normally they can hold 8 or 9. With any sort of distancing they'll be lucky to fit more than 2.

[StrangeSox]

11 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

There isn't the physical space in buildings, even if they wanted to do it properly.  There just aren't enough rooms available.

Yup.

 

My wife just got back from her building where she ran into her principal and chatted for a few minutes. She's overwhelmed with trying to figure out both covid and now racial tensions in a pretty diverse district. Of course, little to no help from district admin.