COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[Jose Abreu]

18 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Sadly this is exactly how unemployment works.  They report the second most conservative number so it doesn't look as bad in terms of percentage.  Also we know for a fact that the 13.3% number is more like 20% when the statistical problems with the last reporting are taken into account.

I remember learning how the unemployment rate is calculated in high school econ and being amazed that the majority of Americans seem to think the figure has real value.

[Dick Allen]

17 minutes ago, Iwritecode said:

Buses are going to be a bigger problem.  Especially the smaller buses that transport the special-needs kids. Many of whom will likely not wear a mask or keep it on.

My mom works for a company that does exactly that except they use suburbans. Normally they can hold 8 or 9. With any sort of distancing they'll be lucky to fit more than 2.

Buses and trains aren't only going to be a problem for students, but for commuters as well. The other thing is for downtown office workers, elevators. I start work pretty early, so in the morning, elevators aren't a problem for me. But if I go downstairs between 9 AM and 1 PM, the elevators are a nightmare now. When they don't let you pack them in, it will be worse. I used to work at the Sears Tower. I can only imagine how long you might have to wait there.

[bmags]

3 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Buses and trains aren't only going to be a problem for students, but for commuters as well. The other thing is for downtown office workers, elevators. I start work pretty early, so in the morning, elevators aren't a problem for me. But if I go downstairs between 9 AM and 1 PM, the elevators are a nightmare now. When they don't let you pack them in, it will be worse. I used to work at the Sears Tower. I can only imagine how long you might have to wait there.

Interestingly in Japan they have not been a major driver. They believe that because so few people speak on the trains, along with universal mask wearing, much of the effects are diminished.

This is also likely why planes have not been much of a place of transmission despite what you would expect - though they have much better filtration than an average bus.

Illinois should promote cta being all quiet cars for public health and encourage people not to talk.

[bmags]

I am not sure we know as much about k-12 as we should. 

Israel had issues with transmission after opening up, but the nordic countries did have reported it no uptick since schools reopened.

To be honest, I think they have to re-open generally and have school by school decisions, and take kids temps.

The effects on education from the lockdowns appear significant and negative. Unless there is evidence it is a significant driver, tie should go to reopening.

[Dick Allen]

3 minutes ago, bmags said:

Interestingly in Japan they have not been a major driver. They believe that because so few people speak on the trains, along with universal mask wearing, much of the effects are diminished.

This is also likely why planes have not been much of a place of transmission despite what you would expect - though they have much better filtration than an average bus.

Illinois should promote cta being all quiet cars for public health and encourage people not to talk.

I think people in Japan don't have as big of problem wearing a mask as they do here. Some people need to realize they actually look way better with the mask on than off.

[bmags]

Just now, Dick Allen said:

I think people in Japan don't have as big of problem wearing a mask as they do here. Some people need to realize they actually look way better with the mask on than off.

I would say mask wearing in northeast illinois has been very good. No, people don't wear them outside if they think they can avoid being close to anyone. But I can't remember the last place I went indoors where people didn't all have masks on since at least April.

And if that's the case, there is no shortage anymore. In singapore they passed out masks. It is part of the policy here now, so have them easily available. Teach people about toilet paper and paper towl masks. 

 

[StrangeSox]

13 minutes ago, bmags said:

I would say mask wearing in northeast illinois has been very good. No, people don't wear them outside if they think they can avoid being close to anyone. But I can't remember the last place I went indoors where people didn't all have masks on since at least April.

And if that's the case, there is no shortage anymore. In singapore they passed out masks. It is part of the policy here now, so have them easily available. Teach people about toilet paper and paper towl masks. 

 

0% mask usage at Waterfall Glen this weekend. Including, admittedly, my family. We went early and it wasn't too crowded. I was glad we were heading out by 1030 or so though, because the trails were starting to get really busy.

[StrangeSox]

I'm very happy to be in Illinois vs the sun belt or the south right now:

 

 

 

 

[Jose Abreu]

45 minutes ago, bmags said:

Interestingly in Japan they have not been a major driver. They believe that because so few people speak on the trains, along with universal mask wearing, much of the effects are diminished.

 This is also likely why planes have not been much of a place of transmission despite what you would expect - though they have much better filtration than an average bus.

Illinois should promote cta being all quiet cars for public health and encourage people not to talk.

I went downtown yesterday and today (first time in months) to work, took the train, and each ride, I either had a full train car to myself or there was one other person who sat way on the other side. And everyone is wearing masks too. I've been pleasantly surprised

21 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

0% mask usage at Waterfall Glen this weekend. Including, admittedly, my family. We went early and it wasn't too crowded. I was glad we were heading out by 1030 or so though, because the trails were starting to get really busy.

Thanks for sharing as I was thinking about going there on an upcoming weekend during a busy time but probably won't anymore

[illinilaw08]

22 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

0% mask usage at Waterfall Glen this weekend. Including, admittedly, my family. We went early and it wasn't too crowded. I was glad we were heading out by 1030 or so though, because the trails were starting to get really busy.

I've been on the trails around Denver the last couple weekends.  Getting to trailheads around 7, so we have the trails to ourselves early, and then pass crowds near the end of the hike.  I'd say 50% mask usage?  Most people with masks have bandannas or buffs they can pull up when you cross paths with somebody and back down when you are back by yourself.

[Balta1701]

55 minutes ago, bmags said:

I am not sure we know as much about k-12 as we should. 

Israel had issues with transmission after opening up, but the nordic countries did have reported it no uptick since schools reopened.

To be honest, I think they have to re-open generally and have school by school decisions, and take kids temps.

The effects on education from the lockdowns appear significant and negative. Unless there is evidence it is a significant driver, tie should go to reopening.

I get why people want to do this as it's easy and does catch maybe 1/10 cases, but seriously this is such a weak response that I wish people would stop suggesting it. From the paper I posted ~2 days ago, basically all of the transmission clusters happened before people started showing a measurable fever. 

[bmags]

35 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

0% mask usage at Waterfall Glen this weekend. Including, admittedly, my family. We went early and it wasn't too crowded. I was glad we were heading out by 1030 or so though, because the trails were starting to get really busy.

I do not wear a mask for exercise and likely would not have had any either. I have them on me in case of an emergency. Depends as you said on how much space you think you can give yourself and if you are walking consistently near the same people.

[bmags]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

I get why people want to do this as it's easy and does catch maybe 1/10 cases, but seriously this is such a weak response that I wish people would stop suggesting it. From the paper I posted ~2 days ago, basically all of the transmission clusters happened before people started showing a measurable fever. 

It will keep flu transmission down in the fall/winter, and in addition, there has been evidence of children having lower viral loads and thus transmission.

But regardless, kids are not good at reporting their own symptoms and it would take likely cases out. It's a good idea. 

They don't allow visitors with temps into hospitals with a temp check, but I guess they shouldn't do that because it wouldn't capture all.

 

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, bmags said:

I do not wear a mask for exercise and likely would not have had any either. I have them on me in case of an emergency. Depends as you said on how much space you think you can give yourself and if you are walking consistently near the same people.

There's more to it than just that though...one person speaking can put out enough that it can probably infect someone, and that's outside of 6 feet, if it's in the right direction and you take the correct breath. It's unlikely in a single pass, but you're allowed to judge your own risk. Personally I've tried to keep a full street between me and everyone I pass while outside, because I'm in a high risk group.

[Balta1701]

Just now, bmags said:

It will keep flu transmission down in the fall/winter, and in addition, there has been evidence of children having lower viral loads and thus transmission.

But regardless, kids are not good at reporting their own symptoms and it would take likely cases out. It's a good idea. 

They don't allow visitors with temps into hospitals with a temp check, but I guess they shouldn't do that because it wouldn't capture all.

 

What I'd say is yes it's cheap and easy...but if you think it's important enough to do that, it's important enough to do things that are far more likely to be effective.

[bmags]

I've never used the chicago dashboard...

https://app.powerbigov.us/view?r=eyJrIjoiYjUwNjEwN2QtYmJkYS00MTZmLTg4YjMtZGRkMzEzMmFmYjg4IiwidCI6IjcwMzZjZGE5LTA2MmQtNDE1MS04MTQ0LTk3ZGRjNTZlNzAyNyJ9

What are the odds it is a data entry error that there was only 1 case in chicago yesterday? 99%?

Would love to know accuracy of that, appears to have dropped to nothing in the last few days, under 100.

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, bmags said:

I've never used the chicago dashboard...

https://app.powerbigov.us/view?r=eyJrIjoiYjUwNjEwN2QtYmJkYS00MTZmLTg4YjMtZGRkMzEzMmFmYjg4IiwidCI6IjcwMzZjZGE5LTA2MmQtNDE1MS04MTQ0LTk3ZGRjNTZlNzAyNyJ9

What are the odds it is a data entry error that there was only 1 case in chicago yesterday? 99%?

Would love to know accuracy of that, appears to have dropped to nothing in the last few days, under 100.

That's the Sunday testing/reporting dropoff. If the office was closed on Sunday or at least had limited staff, they get in, they process the 1 test they've got, and then move on. Our county reported 20 positive tests yesterday, but 60 today, because they could only get the paperwork done on the first 20 before the reporting time. I'm not sure that they actually have the resources to process more than 60, so there's a chance today's number is still missing some because they have so many cases. 

[bmags]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

What I'd say is yes it's cheap and easy...but if you think it's important enough to do that, it's important enough to do things that are far more likely to be effective.

Um, yeah, there will be a mixture of things. But going to be hard to get much better than the mixture of masks + handwashing + temperature screenings unless they can have universal saliva testing daily at schools.

 

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

There's more to it than just that though...one person speaking can put out enough that it can probably infect someone, and that's outside of 6 feet, if it's in the right direction and you take the correct breath. It's unlikely in a single pass, but you're allowed to judge your own risk. Personally I've tried to keep a full street between me and everyone I pass while outside, because I'm in a high risk group.

It's very, very unlikely.

[bmags]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

That's the Sunday testing/reporting dropoff. If the office was closed on Sunday or at least had limited staff, they get in, they process the 1 test they've got, and then move on. Our county reported 20 positive tests yesterday, but 60 today, because they could only get the paperwork done on the first 20 before the reporting time. I'm not sure that they actually have the resources to process more than 60, so there's a chance today's number is still missing some because they have so many cases. 

Chicago data does have a sunday dropoff but 6/15 was a monday which is usually a big bump.

[caulfield12]

3 hours ago, StateStSports said:

Greg is that you?

Since when does Greg come arrayed with a plethora of misleading graphs and statistics?

It’s usually according to what I heard on Rush, Hannity, Carlson... 

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, Jose Abreu said:

I went downtown yesterday and today (first time in months) to work, took the train, and each ride, I either had a full train car to myself or there was one other person who sat way on the other side. And everyone is wearing masks too. I've been pleasantly surprised

Thanks for sharing as I was thinking about going there on an upcoming weekend during a busy time but probably won't anymore

if you are going to do parks, do them during the week and during the work day hours.  It is crazy how many people are going to the parks systems now.

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Since when does Greg come arrayed with a plethora of misleading graphs and statistics?

It’s usually according to what I heard on Rush, Hannity, Carlson... 

Its usually just misleading.

[caulfield12]

3 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

There is an obvious answer as to why.  Illinois has brought down the most controllable death counts by enacting solid protocols in public, so those totals have been minimized when compared with others.  Controlling those numbers in tightly controlled populations is nearly impossible, so instead of having lots of public deaths to delude this number by, Illinois percentage here looks worse. 

Dilute?

Seems the US is cutting down from 14 to 7 vaccine trials, with J&J, Moderna, AstroZenica and Sanofi (France) rumored to still be on the list.   Also, that number doesn’t count Gates Foundation endeavors, at least pretty sure.   
 

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced a new record high for daily coronavirus cases in the Lone Star State. 

He attributed the increase in positive cases to an assisted living facility in Collin County near Dallas, as well the delayed reporting of numbers from Hays County near Austin.

Abbott said the state will see an increase of 2,622 cases on Tuesday, surpassing the previous record high of 2,504 on June 10.

And while the hospitalization rate has been increasing, Abbott expressed confidence in the state's capacity, with 14,933 beds available. The number of hospitalized coronavirus patients has been above 2,000 for the past week, with a record high of 2,518 reported on Tuesday.

"Even though there are more people hospitalized, we still remain at the lowest threat level to our hospital capacity," he said.

Still, the governor urged Texans to be diligent about wearing masks, washing hands, and practicing social distance measures. 

"We just want to double down in reminding everybody that these things that we learned over March and April in May, they still have to be practiced, because Covid-19 hasn't suddenly magically left the state of Texas," he said.

 

Edited June 16, 2020 by caulfield12

[Soxbadger]

I have to take my kid for covid screening tomorrow. Her doctor wont let her come into the office until afterward. All because we mentioned she has a cough at night for the last 6 months. Obviously not covid, but I guess that is the world we live in now.

Ill update on how much of a hassle it is. 

[caulfield12]

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott scolds 20-somethings for not wearing masks, taking coronavirus too lightly

Local officials report more Texans in their 20s test positive, though state health spokesman says it’s ‘too soon to have hard data.’

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public-health/2020/06/15/texas-gov-greg-abbott-scolds-20-somethings-for-not-wearing-masks-taking-coronavirus-too-lightly/
 

Though his administration couldn’t provide statistics, Abbott spoke of a “record pace” of infections among 20-somethings during an appearance on KRGV-TV in McAllen.

“What we’re seeing there is that people of that age group, they’re not following these appropriate best health and safety practices,” he said. “They’re not wearing face masks, they’re not sanitizing their hands, they’re not maintaining the safe distancing practices. And as a result, they are contracting COVID-19 at a record pace in the state of Texas.”

Abbott spokesman John Wittman said the governor has heard about higher numbers of infections among people between the ages of 20 and 29 from local health departments and county judges around the state.