COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[Jerksticks]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

No offense dude, but you are nuts if you think that many people have it right now.  Coronavirus is some serious shit and way too many people are still taking it too lightly, but at the same time conspiracy theories like this is part of the reason I can’t buy fucking baby wipes or toilet paper.

Whoa man don’t lump me in with panic people.  I just think a shit ton of people have it and the strategy is not to test.  Not saying I agree with it- I just think that’s what this is.  And it’s a perfectly damn okay and arguable theory to have.  Absolutely nothing wrong with it. Nothing at all. So pipe down with the broad brush stuff, I don’t appreciate it. 

[caulfield12]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/15/politics/trump-jerome-powell-fed-rate-cut/index.html
 

They’ve used all their remaining rate-cutting capital up in just a couple of weeks.

As soon as leadership personally autographs and tweets out a chart of infections/deaths going down to zero...we’ll know that they’re actually taking this whole thing more seriously on the American health than the economics side.

Because for 10/13 days of lows, we certainly weren’t getting anything but silence.

While some will obviously refinance a house or borrow money for business expenses, it also has a corresponding negative impact on seniors/fixed income recipients.  
 

 

Futures down now over 1,000 points...this might turn out like that first Tuesday they cut 50 bps and the market reacted to it as a sign of panic, like the 10 year bond yields flatlining and the CBOE volatility index numbers spiking up into to 40’s and 50’s.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/15/traders-await-futures-open-after-fed-cuts-rates-launches-easing-program.html

Circuit breaker hit again for the third or fourth time in six trading days...

“The Fed blasted its monetary bazooka for sure,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. “This better work because I don’t know what they have left and no amount of money raining from the sky will cure this virus. Only time and medicine will.”

The Fed cut interest rates down to basically zero, their lowest level since 2015. The U.S. central bank also launched a massive $700 billion quantitative easing program. President Donald Trump said he was “very happy” with the announcement, adding: “I think that people in the markets should be very thrilled.”

 

Edited March 15, 2020 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

47 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

"Herd immunity" = a lot of people die. 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/epidemiologist-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19 

One of our former teachers living in the UK has it already now.

[Jack Parkman]

This is a fucking Coronavirus there is no herd immunity. It's not like you get the common cold once and then you never get it again. The UK is gonna get hammered. 

[pcq]

Makes it hard to go downtown which some of us have to do. No coffee shops? 

[caulfield12]

11 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

This is a fucking Coronavirus there is no herd immunity. It's not like you get the common cold once and then you never get it again. The UK is gonna get hammered. 

https://www.immunology.org/news/bsi-response-herd-immunity-and-sars-cov-2

 

 

Herd immunity exists for flu.  If large proportions of the population would get a flu vaccine that could protect non-immunised individuals.  The problem with flu is that it is difficult to know which strains of flu (think of strains as variations on a theme: it is flu but just a little bit different) will be causing infections at any given point in time and so that is why the flu vaccine is not always 100% effective.  The major problem with coronavirus is that this is a novel virus that has never spread before, which means that everyone is at risk for infection.  Herd immunity can only be reached by widespread vaccination (but there is currently no vaccine, and it may take a long time before an effective vaccine becomes available) or by individuals falling ill and recovering thereby developing natural immunity against the virus.

“Unfortunately, a very rough estimate suggests that we will only reach herd immunity to Covid-19 when approximately 60% of the population is immune (and remember that immunity is currently only reached by getting the infection as we have no vaccine!).  The major downside is that this will mean that in the UK alone at least 36 million people will need to be infected and recover.  It is almost impossible to predict what that will mean in terms of human costs but we are conservatively looking at 10,000s deaths, and possibly at 100,000s of deaths.

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-comments-about-herd-immunity/

How, exactly, are they planning to precent NHS from getting completely overrun along the way...?

 

[caulfield12]

While we’re rightfully criticizing the UK, the crazy thing is they’ve already tested over 40,000 in UK...still way ahead of US testing rates as a percentage of population.  

Italy already is at 60% of the deaths we have had here in China from December through mid-March.  Spain, UK and France set single-day records.  About the only positive is Germany, so far.

 

Every Briton over the age of 70 will be told "within the coming weeks" to stay at home for an extended period to protect themselves from coronavirus.

When it happens, they will be asked to stay home for "a very long time", Health Secretary Matt Hancock said.

The government is to release social distancing advice for elderly people on Monday - but they will not yet be asked to self-isolate for long periods.

Fourteen more people have died from the virus, bringing deaths in the UK to 35.

Mr Hancock told the BBC that manufacturers were being asked to help produce medical equipment, such as ventilators, to help with an expected surge in demand by the NHS.

He also said hotels could be converted into makeshift hospitals, while the government has begun negotiating with private healthcare providers to obtain thousands of extra beds in private hospitals.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51895873

 

Corona simulator...how to flatten the curve

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/?fbclid=IwAR3rux4ateUQghTfQWMLdxY1bgesNfRkMa74WWhNpR2Zl9Xwt78Nh8CLHRg

Edited March 16, 2020 by caulfield12

[Jack Parkman]

Guys, I am an Uber Eats driver and my local area needs me now more than ever. I'm going to tell my customers that I'm planning on leaving their order on their front porch and communicating via phone or text. I will leave each order on their porch and will.leave after they wave to me to acknowledge the order has been received. I'm doing a deep cleaning of my car interior and will do so every day. 

 

I feel like going out there is an important public service. 

 

Wish me luck. 

[Jerksticks]

29 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Guys, I am an Uber Eats driver and my local area needs me now more than ever. I'm going to tell my customers that I'm planning on leaving their order on their front porch and communicating via phone or text. I will leave each order on their porch and will.leave after they wave to me to acknowledge the order has been received. I'm doing a deep cleaning of my car interior and will do so every day. 

 

I feel like going out there is an important public service. 

 

Wish me luck. 

I love everything about what you’ve written here.  You the man!

[StrangeSox]

Isn't the British "plan'" if it can be called that, being widely condemned by public health experts and institutions around the world?

[Heads22]

1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

Guys, I am an Uber Eats driver and my local area needs me now more than ever. I'm going to tell my customers that I'm planning on leaving their order on their front porch and communicating via phone or text. I will leave each order on their porch and will.leave after they wave to me to acknowledge the order has been received. I'm doing a deep cleaning of my car interior and will do so every day. 

 

I feel like going out there is an important public service. 

 

Wish me luck. 

Nicely done.

[StrangeSox]

 

[ptatc]

9 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/people-just-panicking-midwesterners-unmoved-090052636.html
Laissez faire attitude will end up costing lives....

I dont think that other countries are being as strict as is being reported or people believe.  A friends daughter was stuck in Italy on study abroad. She had 6 flights canceled out of Italy in the last 2 days while others were flying out. With no flights for 2 days they decided to take a train to Frankfurt and fly out of Germany.  They only thing they had to do was sign formssaying they will report if they have a positive test within 2 weeks and agree to be contacted if someone else on their flight from Germany has a positive test within 2 weeks. No real restrictions. She made it from the plane through customs to her parents car in just over an hour.

Edited March 16, 2020 by ptatc

[caulfield12]

10 minutes ago, ptatc said:

I dont think that other countries are being as strict as is being reported or people believe.  A friends daughter was stuck in Italy on study abroad. She had 6 flights canceled out of Italy in the last 2 days while others were flying out. With no flights for 2 days they decided to take a train to Frankfurt and fly out of Germany.  They only thing they had to do was sign formssaying they will report if they have a positive test within 2 weeks and agree to be contacted if someone else on their flight from Germany has a positive test within 2 weeks. No real restrictions. She made it from the plane through customs to her parents car in just over an hour.

Whereas the flights out of here had 14 passengers sequestered and everyone in hazmat suits...including flight attendants.

Fwiw, I also think some of the mortality rates vs. death rates are demonstrating such radical differences, the L&S strains as exhibited below.  Of course, simple geographic proximity would argue that South Korea and SE Asia should have faced the worst strains...but there are so many connections between Wuhan and northern Italy (textiles, fashion, tourism, auto industry) it’s impossible to believe they didn’t get the worst of it, as well.  You can now clearly see that simply by examining how many people under age 50 are getting sick all across Europe.

https://www.timesnownews.com/health/article/coronavirus-has-two-strains-l-type-more-aggressive-and-contagious-than-s-type-says-study/561144

 

[scs787]

2 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

Guys, I am an Uber Eats driver and my local area needs me now more than ever. I'm going to tell my customers that I'm planning on leaving their order on their front porch and communicating via phone or text. I will leave each order on their porch and will.leave after they wave to me to acknowledge the order has been received. I'm doing a deep cleaning of my car interior and will do so every day. 

 

I feel like going out there is an important public service. 

 

Wish me luck. 

I work for a company called Mom's Meals. We deliver meals for the week to the elderly through Medicare. Last week we were informed to no longer take signatures and just leave boxes inside the door whenever possible...It kinda breaks my heart because a lot of my clients legitimately can not move these boxes or bend over take the meals out one by my one.... Not sure what else can be done here. 

[Jack Parkman]

Not doing it tonight because it's late, and I had to clean my car,  but the plan is on starting tomorrow during the evening. 

I have to limit it to evenings because I have no idea what's going to happen to my supposed workplace after this is over. Can't risk losing my gov't benefits. 

I just finished washing the door handles and stuff. Cleaning your car takes a long time. 

Edited March 16, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[StrangeSox]

Vegas shutting down

 

 

[caulfield12]

22 min ago

More than half of coronavirus cases in France under intensive care are below the age of 60

More than half of France's 300 coronavirus patients in intensive care are under the age of 60, according to the head of the country's national health agency.

“We have counted this evening 300 serious cases in intensive care. We have serious cases also amid adults and let me remind you that more than 50% of people in intensive care are under 60," Jerome Salomon said at a news conference on Saturday.

Salomon did not specify the age range of those under 60.

www.cnn.com

[Jack Parkman]

I'm reconsidering.

This article seems to suggest that my social distancing ideas were correct. 

It also seems to insinuate that I'm the person at the most risk. 

I don't *have* to do it if I don't want to. Decisions, decisions. 

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-how-get-food-safely/608008/

Edited March 16, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[justBLAZE]

@caulfield12 are you still under quarantine? How are things going for you? 

[caulfield12]

Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker said on NBC's "Meet the Press" that a White House staffer called to yell at him after he complained about the long lines at O'Hare airport.

"They should have increased the Customs and Border Patrol numbers. And they should have increased the number of CDC personnel on the ground doing those checks. They did neither of those," the Democratic governor said.
 

Probably not the best way to get the governors and Federal govn’t working together...or calling them ”snakes.”

cnn.com

Still in quarantine until at least Friday.  That would mark 8 weeks, 2 days...58 days in total under lockdown. IF it’s actually lifted on Friday.  Could also be 23rd/24th, next week...next Mon or Tuesday.

Going by polling, if the split is 70% of Dems and 40% of Republicans (actually changing their behaviors due to the virus) and we can guess roughly 55% of independents are actually taking this seriously, that means roughly 140-150 million Americans are likely to get the rest of us sick, at some point.

Edited March 16, 2020 by caulfield12

[bmags]

5 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker said on NBC's "Meet the Press" that a White House staffer called to yell at him after he complained about the long lines at O'Hare airport.

"They should have increased the Customs and Border Patrol numbers. And they should have increased the number of CDC personnel on the ground doing those checks. They did neither of those," the Democratic governor said.
 

Probably not the best way to get the governors and Federal govn’t working together...or calling them ”snakes.”

cnn.com

Still in quarantine until at least Friday.  That would mark 8 weeks, 2 days...58 days in total under lockdown. IF it’s actually lifted on Friday.  Could also be 23rd/24th, next week...next Mon or Tuesday.

Going by polling, if the split is 70% of Dems and 40% of Republicans (actually changing their behaviors due to the virus) and we can guess roughly 55% of independents are actually taking this seriously, that means roughly 140-150 million Americans are likely to get the rest of us sick, at some point.

There's nowhere to go now. The speed at which this realization progressed from the NBA on wednesday night, to most schools closing by friday, to people keeping their plans on saturday to then everything shut down in most major cities is incredible. Many probably were holding on but now choice has been rightly taken away.

The problem is saturday's idiocy sets us back so much. It will be 2 weeks before we even know how big of a deal that was, then another 2 weeks for those to get better.

[caulfield12]

A former classmate who works for US Embassy posted this at FB

 

Social Distancing versus “It’s just”

“I’ll just pop in”
“It’s just a quick run to Starbucks”
“It’s just one beer with a few friends”
“It’s just for the kids, they’re so bored”

One of the daily battles for those of us stuck at home, and perhaps especially those with independent teenagers trying to navigate a new, temporary reality, is the need to resist the temptations of the “it’s just” rationalization that would justify some form of social gathering. 

“It’s just” is an understandable bit of mental gymnastics for a culture built on ideas of individual freedom. But it’s also a convenient way to wriggle out of a new and broad social responsibility for all of us. “It’s just” essentially says that social distancing is for other people, but not me. 

The hard thing right now is that “It’s just” facilitates otherwise avoidable instances of unintended virus transmission. 

Let’s have that uncomfortable talk with our teenagers about what social distancing means in real terms, set some appropriate expectations, and get used to saying a word my own parents (as old friends will happily attest) were quite fond of: “no”. 

Yes, I will take fire for this from some quarters. But experience is a harsh teacher, and I’d rather put my experience of 20+ years in and out of Asia and the Middle East, through the original bird flu, red tides, SARS and MERS, to some kind of service than just sit back and observe while the US still has a chance at outcomes more like Taiwan than Italy.

[soxfan49]

Expect a big announcement from the top soon, per my sources. All I can say is make sure you have food.

[StrangeSox]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

There's nowhere to go now. The speed at which this realization progressed from the NBA on wednesday night, to most schools closing by friday, to people keeping their plans on saturday to then everything shut down in most major cities is incredible. Many probably were holding on but now choice has been rightly taken away.

The problem is saturday's idiocy sets us back so much. It will be 2 weeks before we even know how big of a deal that was, then another 2 weeks for those to get better.

Most people still don't get the gravity of this. Nearly the entire service industry is going to be shut down for weeks or months.

Edited March 16, 2020 by StrangeSox