COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[Jerksticks]

59 minutes ago, StateStSports said:

I think NYC, Detroit, Chicago areas got hit harder than any of tests and numbers can tell.  While being cautious, still very very dense areas. While anti-bodies may be short and booster vaccine shots may be needed, the hope is that the second time it hits you, your body has some reaction that makes it less lethal.

Interesting.  What makes you think those areas got hit harder than the numbers say?

[Chisoxfn]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What in the fuck is an “anti mask rally”?

It’s like a pox party but where you all get COVID. 

[Chisoxfn]

1 hour ago, StateStSports said:

I think NYC, Detroit, Chicago areas got hit harder than any of tests and numbers can tell.  While being cautious, still very very dense areas. While anti-bodies may be short and booster vaccine shots may be needed, the hope is that the second time it hits you, your body has some reaction that makes it less lethal.

Yeah - I would hope if antibodies break down that it starts being more like a common cold when you are re-infected. 

[StateStSports]

42 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

Interesting.  What makes you think those areas got hit harder than the numbers say?

I think most cities with international airports got smashed hard at first. Numbers were incredibly high in those locales at first with high exponential growth. 30-40% are asymptomatic so you can add the actual cases, along with those and mild cases of people.  Note: I may be way off, but there seems to be a 90 day trend of really high cases and then drop off. Perhaps that is due to lockdowns in Italy, Spain, NYC, Chicago etc.

 

 

[StateStSports]

12 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

Yeah - I would hope if antibodies break down that it starts being more like a common cold when you are re-infected. 

My best friend is a radiologist on the front lines. I won't go over what he tells me (scary shit). Naturally, this virus doesn't want to die off; thus it will weaken over time because it wants to stay around forever. If it is lethal it will simply die with it's host. The more hosts the better. THe question is how many cycles around does it need to take before our bodies react and it weakens.

[caulfield12]

3 hours ago, StateStSports said:

My best friend is a radiologist on the front lines. I won't go over what he tells me (scary shit). Naturally, this virus doesn't want to die off; thus it will weaken over time because it wants to stay around forever. If it is lethal it will simply die with it's host. The more hosts the better. THe question is how many cycles around does it need to take before our bodies react and it weakens.

Basically, the opposite of Ebola and MERs, but much more resilient.

 

That’s not the case, however, in places such as Florida, Texas and Arizona, where governors have resisted calls to make masks mandatory and have insisted that lockdown is over for good. According to a recent study reported in Health Affairs, mask mandates in 15 states may have prevented as many as 450,000 COVID-19 cases in the U.S., and new modeling from U.K.-based researchers suggests that effective public health efforts to track new infections and trace and isolate the contacts of those infected can also lower the risk of infection in a population by more than half.

Yet in the U.S., views about mask wearing and social distancing have become incredibly polarized. A new Gallup poll shows that only about 30 percent of Republicans would now advise others to stay home as much as possible (down from more than 80 percent in March), and fewer than half of Republicans say they’ve practiced social distancing in the last 24 hours (down from about 90 percent in March). Among Democrats, both numbers are still hovering around 90 percent. Given how little mitigation and containment some state governments are doing, and how lax certain segments of the population have become, especially young people, it’s no wonder that cases are rising. Few other countries have followed a similar curve, but the ones that have — such as Iran — also report widespread skepticism about science, distrust in government, premature rollbacks of lockdown and low levels of compliance with public-health guidelines.

The point here is not that lockdown should have continued forever. After all, it ended in Europe, and so far, cases haven’t spiked there. The point is that lockdown should have lasted as long as necessary to limit the amount of virus circulating in the population; reopening should have been tailored to conditions on the ground; and personal precautions should have been encouraged, not politicized.

.....

A report Tuesday in the New York Times revealed that the EU is considering two potential lists of acceptable travelers based on how foreign nations are faring in their fight against COVID-19 — and neither list includes the U.S.

This slight — “a stinging blow to American prestige in the world and a repudiation of President Trump’s handling of the virus in the United States,” as the Times put it — not only underscores how much worse the U.S. outbreak has gotten in recent days. It also highlights how much better the EU is currently doing than the U.S.

And that raises the question of why.

“American exceptionalism was not supposed to mean this,” Tom Frieden, the former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, recently tweeted.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/as-covid-cases-fall-in-europe-calls-to-ban-travel-from-america-what-the-eu-got-right-about-controlling-coronavirus-164627926.html

Edited June 25, 2020 by caulfield12

[Chicago White Sox]

I think I’ve finally lost faith in humanity.  The fact that anyone would waste even a single ounce of energy protesting a requirement to wear a mask and slow down this virus is just something I can’t process.  We’re in the midst of a global pandemic on top of serious economic turmoil and social injustice and yet the thing that gets you going is not wanting to wear a fucking mask when your outside?  You literally have to be the scum of the earth or just the dumbest piece of shit to want to fight this battle.  I know there are bad, ignorant people everywhere in this world, but the U.S. has to take the cake and Trump’s presidency has created an environment where these people are able to be bold with their hateful or dumb takes.  It’s an absolute shame what’s happened to this country with that clown in office.

[caulfield12]

COVID-19 deaths per million population.
Belgium - 840.37
UK - 645.63
Spain - 606.22
Italy - 573.79
Sweden - 506.82
France - 442.86
Average of top 6 - 602.62

US - 370.44

If the US had performed at the same level as the average of those 6 EU countries an additional 80,000 Americans would be dead.

 

OTOH...

In Texas, if the current case trajectory continues, Houston could be the hardest-hit city in the US with numbers rivaling those in Brazil. Infection numbers are also rising in Dallas, Austin and San Antonio, said Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at the Baylor College of Medicine. 

"The big metro areas seem to be rising very quickly and some of the models are on the verge of being apocalyptic," Hotez told CNN's Anderson Cooper. 

Models show that Houston could have a four-fold increase in the number of daily cases by July 4, he said, adding that states need to act to stop community transmission. 

"That is really worrisome and as those numbers rise, we're seeing commensurate increases in the number of hospitalizations and ICU admissions," he said. "You get to the point where you overwhelm ICUs and that's when the mortality goes up."

Hotez is also a professor of pediatrics and molecular virology and microbiology, and is working on a potential Covid-19 vaccine.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/25/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html

Edited June 25, 2020 by caulfield12

[Quin]

Just now, caulfield12 said:

COVID-19 deaths per million population.
Belgium - 840.37
UK - 645.63
Spain - 606.22
Italy - 573.79
Sweden - 506.82
France - 442.86
Average of top 6 - 602.62

US - 370.44

If the US had performed at the same level as the average of those 6 EU countries an additional 80,000 Americans would be dead.

What about the bottom 6, or just the EU average, which would seem like a better measuring stick?

[caulfield12]

19 minutes ago, Quin said:

What about the bottom 6, or just the EU average, which would seem like a better measuring stick?

Not sure.  Just thought it was interesting.    Along with Germany, those would be the  majority of largest populations/economies in the EU.

Of course, the US death rate will continue to climb while almost the entire EU except for Sweden is swinging in the opposite direction.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

Slovakia and Greece did a really good job.  Croatia and Czech Republic.   Not sure if we can trust Ukraine numbers.

Poland	1,396	37.98	36.76
Qatar	104	2.78	37.39
Serbia	263	6.98	37.67
Belarus	362	9.49	38.16
South Africa	2,205	57.78	38.16
Saudi Arabia	1,387	33.7	41.16
Honduras	417	9.59	43.49
Bahrain	69	1.57	43.96
Puerto Rico	149	3.2	46.63
Norway	249	5.31	46.85
Colombia	2,524	49.65	50.84
Bosnia and Herzegovina	173	3.32	52.05
Estonia	69	1.32	52.24
Slovenia	109	2.07	52.72
Russia	8,503	144.48	58.85
Hungary	577	9.77	59.07
Finland	327	5.52	59.26
Turkey	5,025	82.32	61.04
Dominican Republic	691	10.63	65.02
Bolivia	876	11.35	77.16
Austria	693	8.85	78.33
Romania	1,555	19.47	79.85
Kuwait	337	4.14	81.45
Denmark	603	5.8	104.01
Germany	8,928	82.93	107.66
North Macedonia	259	2.08	124.34
Armenia	386	2.95	130.77
Panama	547	4.18	130.96
Portugal	1,543	10.28	150.07

Edited June 25, 2020 by caulfield12

[StrangeSox]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I think I’ve finally lost faith in humanity.  The fact that anyone would waste even a single ounce of energy protesting a requirement to wear a mask and slow down this virus is just something I can’t process.  We’re in the midst of a global pandemic on top of serious economic turmoil and social injustice and yet the thing that gets you going is not wanting to wear a fucking mask when your outside?  You literally have to be the scum of the earth or just the dumbest piece of shit to want to fight this battle.  I know there are bad, ignorant people everywhere in this world, but the U.S. has to take the cake and Trump’s presidency has created an environment where these people are able to be bold with their hateful or dumb takes.  It’s an absolute shame what’s happened to this country with that clown in office.

(now do global warming)

 

edit: the current president is a symptom of the mindset you're talking about, not the cause of it

Edited June 25, 2020 by StrangeSox

[StrangeSox]

 

[caulfield12]

29 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

 

Counting traditional UNE as well as pandemic programs expiring in 2020, we’re currently at 30.5 million total.

[Jack Parkman]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I think I’ve finally lost faith in humanity.  The fact that anyone would waste even a single ounce of energy protesting a requirement to wear a mask and slow down this virus is just something I can’t process.  We’re in the midst of a global pandemic on top of serious economic turmoil and social injustice and yet the thing that gets you going is not wanting to wear a fucking mask when your outside?  You literally have to be the scum of the earth or just the dumbest piece of shit to want to fight this battle.  I know there are bad, ignorant people everywhere in this world, but the U.S. has to take the cake and Trump’s presidency has created an environment where these people are able to be bold with their hateful or dumb takes.  It’s an absolute shame what’s happened to this country with that clown in office.

People in this country are so selfish that they'd rather put their heads in the sand than deal with an existential crisis. 

33 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

(now do global warming)

 

edit: the current president is a symptom of the mindset you're talking about, not the cause of it

I was just going to say that. 

With how climate change has been treated for the past 30 years you can't tell me you're surprised that science has become political. 

[NWINFan]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I think I’ve finally lost faith in humanity.  The fact that anyone would waste even a single ounce of energy protesting a requirement to wear a mask and slow down this virus is just something I can’t process.  We’re in the midst of a global pandemic on top of serious economic turmoil and social injustice and yet the thing that gets you going is not wanting to wear a fucking mask when your outside?  You literally have to be the scum of the earth or just the dumbest piece of shit to want to fight this battle.  I know there are bad, ignorant people everywhere in this world, but the U.S. has to take the cake and Trump’s presidency has created an environment where these people are able to be bold with their hateful or dumb takes.  It’s an absolute shame what’s happened to this country with that clown in office.

All I can say is that I keep hearing that "we are all in this together," but few act like it. Trump certainly doesn't act like it. Secret Service agents have tested positive and others now have to be isolated. All of this is astounding.

[StrangeSox]

Quote

"We did have a rally in Bellingham, which is our county seat, and there was also a protest, and we have not been able to connect a single case to that rally or to the protest, and what we're finding is in large part that's due to the use of masks," Erika Lautenbach, the director of the Whatcom County Health Department in Washington State, tells NPR's All Things Considered. "Almost everyone at the rally was wearing a mask, and it's really a testament to how effective masks are in preventing the spread of this disease."

For the clusters that have popped up, Lautenbach says the state has been using contact tracing to learn more about how they're contributing to the spread of the virus. For instance, it found that 14 cases were associated with a party of 100 to 150 people in early June. Subsequently, 15 more cases were associated with the original 14.

"So that one event spread to 29 people and 31 related employers," Lautenbach says. "Our challenge is to continue to trace as it moves through families, as it moves through workplaces and as it moves through social events as well."

But protests just aren't spreading the disease in the same way, Lautenbach says.

"We're finding that the social events and gatherings, these parties where people aren't wearing masks, are our primary source of infection," Lautenbach says. "And then the secondary source of infection is workplace settings. There were 31 related employers just associated with that one party because of the number of people that brought that to their workplace. So for us, for a community our size, that's a pretty massive spread."

e:

 

Beyond the immediate good news of "not contributing to exponential growth underway in numerous places," it could also be a great sign yet again on how important a simple, cheap measure we can all* easily take is to combating this thing and saving untold pain, suffering, economic damage and lives. Large, outdoor gatherings with high mask compliance and lots of talking/shouting? No sign of big spreading. Tightly packed subways with high mask compliance and no talking? No sign of spreading.

 

 

Wear your damn masks, people.

 

 

*some legitimately can't for medical reasons, and it's up to the rest of us to do our part to protect each other. we are our brother's keeper.

Edited June 25, 2020 by StrangeSox

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

COVID-19 deaths per million population.
Belgium - 840.37
UK - 645.63
Spain - 606.22
Italy - 573.79
Sweden - 506.82
France - 442.86
Average of top 6 - 602.62

US - 370.44

If the US had performed at the same level as the average of those 6 EU countries an additional 80,000 Americans would be dead.

 

OTOH...

In Texas, if the current case trajectory continues, Houston could be the hardest-hit city in the US with numbers rivaling those in Brazil. Infection numbers are also rising in Dallas, Austin and San Antonio, said Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at the Baylor College of Medicine. 

"The big metro areas seem to be rising very quickly and some of the models are on the verge of being apocalyptic," Hotez told CNN's Anderson Cooper. 

Models show that Houston could have a four-fold increase in the number of daily cases by July 4, he said, adding that states need to act to stop community transmission. 

"That is really worrisome and as those numbers rise, we're seeing commensurate increases in the number of hospitalizations and ICU admissions," he said. "You get to the point where you overwhelm ICUs and that's when the mortality goes up."

Hotez is also a professor of pediatrics and molecular virology and microbiology, and is working on a potential Covid-19 vaccine.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/25/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html

Have faith, the President and his minions are working on this.

[turnin' two]

1 hour ago, StrangeSox said:

edit: the current president is a symptom of the mindset you're talking about, not the cause of it

Both parties are symptoms.  The dems are also responsible for Trump, though they wouldn't admit it.  They some how chose a candidate that was less relatable to the middle of the political spectrum than a brash billionaire most well known for firing people.  They have also been espousing policies that are far enough away from what the middle wants, it makes them uncomfortable.  Then those people have to make a choice between two things they see as bad choices.  As someone that does not see much relatable in either party, it becomes a matter of which one of these candidates and parties is least worse?  Which one most is at odds with what is important to you?  Personally I voted 3rd party last time, to basically protest vote that I hated both candidates ( I live in Illinois, my presidential vote doesn't really matter anyways, if I lived in a battleground state, I probably would have taken it more seriously and made a real choice).  

Both parties are a mess.  And both are to blame for the political mess we have today.  Both have been run by special interests and have no real intention of serving the people of this country.

 

[caulfield12]

11 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Both parties are symptoms.  The dems are also responsible for Trump, though they wouldn't admit it.  They some how chose a candidate that was less relatable to the middle of the political spectrum than a brash billionaire most well known for firing people.  They have also been espousing policies that are far enough away from what the middle wants, it makes them uncomfortable.  Then those people have to make a choice between two things they see as bad choices.  As someone that does not see much relatable in either party, it becomes a matter of which one of these candidates and parties is least worse?  Which one most is at odds with what is important to you?  Personally I voted 3rd party last time, to basically protest vote that I hated both candidates ( I live in Illinois, my presidential vote doesn't really matter anyways, if I lived in a battleground state, I probably would have taken it more seriously and made a real choice).  

Both parties are a mess.  And both are to blame for the political mess we have today.  Both have been run by special interests and have no real intention of serving the people of this country.

 

Bernie Sanders would have been the nominee “if not for special interests” in 2016.  Not 100% sure our country would be significantly less polarized had that happened than under either Trump or Clinton, but historians of the future will certainly play the “what if” game.  

It’s also difficult to imagine any one Democrat holding so much power over their party as Trump with the GOP today...you’d probably have to go back to FDR.

[StrangeSox]

Both parties are trash garbage captured by the wealthy but there's still pretty marked differences between the two, especially as it related to COVID responses.

[turnin' two]

5 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

Both parties are trash garbage captured by the wealthy but there's still pretty marked differences between the two, especially as it related to COVID responses.

I don't know.  I don't know if a state did better than Ohio.  And I don't know if a state did worse than New York (which now in a morbidly hilarious twist is banning visitors, after New Yorkers spread this thing like wildfire all across the country).  Everyone is pointing to Texas as a disaster right now, rightfully so, and blaming republican leadership, which is probably right, but California is worse right now than Texas.  They all suck.

In general, the way that a disease has been politicized has been completely ridiculous and shameful.  A complete national disaster.  

[bmags]

16 hours ago, almagest said:

What does "Crush the virus" mean to you? To me that means (and I assumed you meant) "completely eliminate". The only country at that point to my knowledge is NZ.

Regardless of the number of countries under complete lockdown with next to no cases and no major infection explosions, we'll still need to watch their economic health for a long time after this because other places will have levels of immunity and they won't. They'll constantly be at risk of infection until this virus completely burns out in the rest of the world. To me this means potentially years of lockdown measures for them.

I don't know when the narrative shifted from "sensible measures to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed" to "complete eradication of this virus" but that's been really concerning to me. One makes sense, the other is complete fantasy.

The EU's recent numbers are encouraging but A) total cases and deaths may no longer correlate the same way they did earlier in the infection spread due to the different risk groups being affected and B) They got absolutely hammered in Spain and Italy in the same at-risk populations we did and Europe as a whole was ahead of our infection explosion so I would expect them to have less cases overall at this point.

It's clear with two people being confused that crush is not literally 0 cases exist and walling yourself off like new zealand, but getting the virus to a point where it's declined or in the background. 

It will be hard to use economic health as a judge considering so much of the world's economy is offline, including a very hampered US as one of the world's biggest economies.

But I think it's odd how often people are acting like lockdown is the main strategy. Lockdown occurs when control has been lost due to inadequate policy, testing and tracing. South Korea has had moments of targeted lockdowns but never a full Chinese, Italian or even Chicago-style lockdown. Japan never did though theirs appears to be luck. Hong Kong has avoided long lockdowns. 

Controlling the virus does not equal lockdowns.

And the entire idea that other countries are at an advantage because it is burning through is just not supported by anything. NYC certainly has a level of previously infected that makes it less vulnerable to the way covid spreads than florida had. But no country will approach herd immunity this year, and for that infection level to even occur you would be talking about an economy shut down. As we have seen now with Texas...shut downs are as voluntary as they are government driven.

When you get the virus down to a low enough level, society can probably function well enough with high acceptance of mask wearing, handwashing and cutting down on large indoor crowds and pushing most activities outside. But that can only happen when you get the virus down low enough. Many places began opening up when it was still quite a threat, but also did so with little restrictions and with a populace not demanded to wear masks. That isn't good enough and that's a US state thing.

Berlin started taking off masks and reopening, and then berlin started doing berlin things with night clubs and has to shut down some. But the shut down is targeted (night clubs, bars), not the entire state needing to pull back like texas.

The virus is no where near burning out in the rest of the world. And the balance is "should we accept higher deaths, longer time under suppressed economic activity so that we can let this get the us to 25% infected by EOY before a vaccine may be available" or "should we create a series of policies and restrictions to suppress the virus to a very low level so that we can enjoy 80% of life as normal while we wait for a vaccine"

The us has very little additional protection from it's higher serology levels, has lost months due to mismanagement, and is now in late june about to see a bunch of important economies pull back. That's horrible management, and so all the "burn" we are enjoying has not put us at any advantage over any other country in the world. And it didn't have to be this way, and it very much is the fault of the federal government who has extraordinary powers to help in emergencies, even if the US can take advantage of states experimenting.

[StrangeSox]

50 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

I don't know.  I don't know if a state did better than Ohio.  And I don't know if a state did worse than New York (which now in a morbidly hilarious twist is banning visitors, after New Yorkers spread this thing like wildfire all across the country).  Everyone is pointing to Texas as a disaster right now, rightfully so, and blaming republican leadership, which is probably right, but California is worse right now than Texas.  They all suck.

In general, the way that a disease has been politicized has been completely ridiculous and shameful.  A complete national disaster.  

Cuomo did horribly, as did De Blasio, and it probably killed several thousand extra NYers. DeWine did great early on but seemed to cave to reopening pressure in mid-May or so. Ohio is trending back up. 

California is in bad shape, and Newsome has been okay.

It's not universally bad or good at the governor level by party, but there is a marked difference between what most Dem govs are doing and what most GOP govs are doing, e.g. Ricketts financially punishing any local governments that issue mask requirements. At the public support level, we see stark differences on party regarding whether this is even a real thing we should even care about. A lot of that is, imo, driven by political media and the current leadership of the federal government.

And that's really where the lack of leadership is hurting us the most. The federal government actively denying that this is even a problem and continuing to have terrible responses to this day (let's cut testing funds!!) ensures it'll be a highly politicized disease where people reflexively buck even the smallest measures to contain a pandemic.

 

e:

Now, part of this is that you're going to have a strong correlation between "states where the populace is taking this seriously" and "public mask policies," and states where the populace is blowing this off and political leadership rejects mask policies.

Edited June 25, 2020 by StrangeSox

[StrangeSox]

3 minutes ago, bmags said:

It's clear with two people being confused that crush is not literally 0 cases exist and walling yourself off like new zealand, but getting the virus to a point where it's declined or in the background. 

It will be hard to use economic health as a judge considering so much of the world's economy is offline, including a very hampered US as one of the world's biggest economies.

But I think it's odd how often people are acting like lockdown is the main strategy. Lockdown occurs when control has been lost due to inadequate policy, testing and tracing. South Korea has had moments of targeted lockdowns but never a full Chinese, Italian or even Chicago-style lockdown. Japan never did though theirs appears to be luck. Hong Kong has avoided long lockdowns. 

Controlling the virus does not equal lockdowns.

And the entire idea that other countries are at an advantage because it is burning through is just not supported by anything. NYC certainly has a level of previously infected that makes it less vulnerable to the way covid spreads than florida had. But no country will approach herd immunity this year, and for that infection level to even occur you would be talking about an economy shut down. As we have seen now with Texas...shut downs are as voluntary as they are government driven.

When you get the virus down to a low enough level, society can probably function well enough with high acceptance of mask wearing, handwashing and cutting down on large indoor crowds and pushing most activities outside. But that can only happen when you get the virus down low enough. Many places began opening up when it was still quite a threat, but also did so with little restrictions and with a populace not demanded to wear masks. That isn't good enough and that's a US state thing.

Berlin started taking off masks and reopening, and then berlin started doing berlin things with night clubs and has to shut down some. But the shut down is targeted (night clubs, bars), not the entire state needing to pull back like texas.

The virus is no where near burning out in the rest of the world. And the balance is "should we accept higher deaths, longer time under suppressed economic activity so that we can let this get the us to 25% infected by EOY before a vaccine may be available" or "should we create a series of policies and restrictions to suppress the virus to a very low level so that we can enjoy 80% of life as normal while we wait for a vaccine"

The us has very little additional protection from it's higher serology levels, has lost months due to mismanagement, and is now in late june about to see a bunch of important economies pull back. That's horrible management, and so all the "burn" we are enjoying has not put us at any advantage over any other country in the world. And it didn't have to be this way, and it very much is the fault of the federal government who has extraordinary powers to help in emergencies, even if the US can take advantage of states experimenting.

Serology testing in some of the hardest hit regions of Italy and Spain (or maybe France?) came back at like 5%. NYC was as high as 20% but not NY state as a whole. We are very, very far from natural herd immunity, and that assumes that acquired immunity lasts long enough that we can even get to that point.

[southsideirish71]

44 minutes ago, bmags said:

It's clear with two people being confused that crush is not literally 0 cases exist and walling yourself off like new zealand, but getting the virus to a point where it's declined or in the background. 

It will be hard to use economic health as a judge considering so much of the world's economy is offline, including a very hampered US as one of the world's biggest economies.

But I think it's odd how often people are acting like lockdown is the main strategy. Lockdown occurs when control has been lost due to inadequate policy, testing and tracing. South Korea has had moments of targeted lockdowns but never a full Chinese, Italian or even Chicago-style lockdown. Japan never did though theirs appears to be luck. Hong Kong has avoided long lockdowns. 

Controlling the virus does not equal lockdowns.

And the entire idea that other countries are at an advantage because it is burning through is just not supported by anything. NYC certainly has a level of previously infected that makes it less vulnerable to the way covid spreads than florida had. But no country will approach herd immunity this year, and for that infection level to even occur you would be talking about an economy shut down. As we have seen now with Texas...shut downs are as voluntary as they are government driven.

 When you get the virus down to a low enough level, society can probably function well enough with high acceptance of mask wearing, handwashing and cutting down on large indoor crowds and pushing most activities outside. But that can only happen when you get the virus down low enough. Many places began opening up when it was still quite a threat, but also did so with little restrictions and with a populace not demanded to wear masks. That isn't good enough and that's a US state thing.

 Berlin started taking off masks and reopening, and then berlin started doing berlin things with night clubs and has to shut down some. But the shut down is targeted (night clubs, bars), not the entire state needing to pull back like texas.

 The virus is no where near burning out in the rest of the world. And the balance is "should we accept higher deaths, longer time under suppressed economic activity so that we can let this get the us to 25% infected by EOY before a vaccine may be available" or "should we create a series of policies and restrictions to suppress the virus to a very low level so that we can enjoy 80% of life as normal while we wait for a vaccine"

 The us has very little additional protection from it's higher serology levels, has lost months due to mismanagement, and is now in late june about to see a bunch of important economies pull back. That's horrible management, and so all the "burn" we are enjoying has not put us at any advantage over any other country in the world. And it didn't have to be this way, and it very much is the fault of the federal government who has extraordinary powers to help in emergencies, even if the US can take advantage of states experimenting.

***This is not directed at you Bmag***  I just wanted to jump onto this thread.  

I have already had Covid as well as my family.  I also identify as a conservative.  We are finally just starting to open up.  I want to see this open up more.  But it requires one thing.  Wear a fucking mask.  I hate wearing a mask.  Its not comfortable.  But in the end its something I do because its a requirement and if it opens up the economy and keeps the people from spreading it around then lets go for it.  I have witnessed over and over how morons want to fight with store owners on their personal freedoms.  My anti-vaxxing neighbor has issued a petition to their facebook friends on how the wittle kids cant wear masks in school.  Which is bullshit.  This is the same lady who lets her 3 year old run in the middle of the street while she does something else besides parent.  Oh and the kicker she is going to school for to work as a respiratory specialist.  Thats the person I want taking care of me when I have issues.  These are the crazy "freedom" caucus members who are just ignorant.  Now do I think that Covid will kill most people.  Probably not.  If you are not old or have secondary issues you will run through it.   And on the other side we have the crazies who want to stay locked away until there is a cure.  They watch Pandemic media porn every night where they forget that most "News" outlets will do anything for ratings. They almost relish locating a person under 25 who has it and dies.  I saw someone link a 15 year old who died.   The headline read healthy 15 year old dies of Covid.  So while Covid probably finished him off.  He was a newly diagnosed Type 1 diabetic with a 1500 mg/l blood sugar count and obese.  So while he succumbed to Covid as a  betting man the other two issues probably helped with turning this for the worse.    In the end this becomes a battle of crazies on both sides and then the rest of us in the middle.   But wearing a mask is a minor inconvenience to get my kid back into in person classes then he wears a mask.  If you really are a so called conservative then its in your best interest to get these numbers under control so there is no risk of being put back into the penalty box.  Wear your fucking mask already.  

Edited June 25, 2020 by southsideirish71