COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[turnin' two]

56 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

You don't think Pritzker has done a good job? I hated Pritzker - I'm tired of billionaires buying political power, but even I can't deny he has been outstanding with COVID. He got hit earlier than all those places you named and he squashed to the best of his abilities despite being surrounded by 3 idiotic states. I'm not sure why you citing volume stats given the timeline and the population of the state vs other states.

Lightfoot has sucked, I agree there, but Pritzker and Illinois have done a fantastic job slowing and containing the spread.

I think he has done ok actually.  And I think that overall Illinois has done ok.  But I think it is a bit rosy to pretend that Illinois has done an more than an average job.  I stated the volume stats to add a little perspective.   CWS added that Illinois is the 5th most populous state.  We are 6th in cases and 4th in deaths.  Pretty much right where you would put Illinois based on population.  

But that's why I added the other countries in.  Illinois has twice as many cases as Sweden, who has basically been a whipping boy.  And yes, Illinois has more people, but 12 mil to 10 mil.  And twice the cases.  We have 50K more cases than Canada.  At 1/3 of the population basically.  We only have 20K fewer cases than all of France.  Not all of that is the fault of Illinois, but I don't think we are some sort of beacon as to how to handle this thing.   

Edited July 5, 2020 by turnin' two

[caulfield12]

 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

I disagree, moving to phase 3/4 was too soon and now cases in IL are starting to go up. 

I still don't believe that anyone should be allowed inside any building that isn't their workplace or home. 

So how do old people get groceries? Or medication? 

[Jack Parkman]

23 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

So how do old people get groceries? Or medication? 

Instacart/phone delivery 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

Instacart/phone delivery 

Jack, my Uncle - who is 68 years old - doesn't even know how to use the internet without signing into the old AOL software.;

His amazon password had to be changed and he couldn't do it because he doesn't know how to open to web pages at once. He barely knows how to use a computer at all.

People my grandmas age still use CHECKS at the grocery store. She can't see a computer screen because her vision is so bad. She has no idea how to order groceries and she lives in a moral rural area. Your resolutions just ignore countless people and the reality they live in.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 hours ago, turnin' two said:

I think he has done ok actually.  And I think that overall Illinois has done ok.  But I think it is a bit rosy to pretend that Illinois has done an more than an average job.  I stated the volume stats to add a little perspective.   CWS added that Illinois is the 5th most populous state.  We are 6th in cases and 4th in deaths.  Pretty much right where you would put Illinois based on population.  

But that's why I added the other countries in.  Illinois has twice as many cases as Sweden, who has basically been a whipping boy.  And yes, Illinois has more people, but 12 mil to 10 mil.  And twice the cases.  We have 50K more cases than Canada.  At 1/3 of the population basically.  We only have 20K fewer cases than all of France.  Not all of that is the fault of Illinois, but I don't think we are some sort of beacon as to how to handle this thing.   

I think you're ignoring two things.

1. You're comparing Illinois to countries - with leadership who reacted quickly and people wore masks and stayed away etc. That's just unfair and absurd. No matter how good Pritzker or any Governor does, he lives in a nation that has no unified leadership and a nation that has 50%+ of the states and 35-40% of the people refusing to wear masks or take any serious precautions.

2. Illinois got hit first with New York because it is a international hub. He mandated masks early and things have really leveled. He could have done better in nursing homes just as all the leadership could have. I just can't think of a Governor who I think reacted better or more quickly. There were a couple that were about equal to him I thought.

[turnin' two]

17 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I think you're ignoring two things.

1. You're comparing Illinois to countries - with leadership who reacted quickly and people wore masks and stayed away etc. That's just unfair and absurd. No matter how good Pritzker or any Governor does, he lives in a nation that has no unified leadership and a nation that has 50%+ of the states and 35-40% of the people refusing to wear masks or take any serious precautions.

2. Illinois got hit first with New York because it is a international hub. He mandated masks early and things have really leveled. He could have done better in nursing homes just as all the leadership could have. I just can't think of a Governor who I think reacted better or more quickly. There were a couple that were about equal to him I thought.

Sweden?  We have higher infection and death rates than Sweden, who really took a laissez faire approach.

But ok, that's fine.  Obviously the comparison's aren't perfect.  I was adding them just for a bit of perspective. There isn't a perfect comparison.  Georgia, Pennsylvania and Ohio are about the closest population-wise, but all are different from Illinois.  All have fewer cases than Illinois, but Georgia is gaining, but still below 50% of where Illinois is, but I wouldn't be surprised if they caught up.  Pennsylvania and Ohio each have about 60K fewer cases and have a similar trend to us.

 

Edited July 6, 2020 by turnin' two

[RTC]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Jack, my Uncle - who is 68 years old - doesn't even know how to use the internet without signing into the old AOL software.;

For some strange reason I hope it still makes the modem noise

[StrangeSox]

"learn to live with it" - the official stance of the federal government

 

Meanwhile

 

[Jack Parkman]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Jack, my Uncle - who is 68 years old - doesn't even know how to use the internet without signing into the old AOL software.;

His amazon password had to be changed and he couldn't do it because he doesn't know how to open to web pages at once. He barely knows how to use a computer at all.

People my grandmas age still use CHECKS at the grocery store. She can't see a computer screen because her vision is so bad. She has no idea how to order groceries and she lives in a moral rural area. Your resolutions just ignore countless people and the reality they live in.

Eh, that's what phone orders and curbside pickup are for. 

If people continue to refuse to wear masks or wear them incorrectly, then we have to make choices for people in the best interest of the community. 

 

Edited July 6, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[southsideirish71]

1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

Eh, that's what phone orders and curbside pickup are for. 

If people continue to refuse to wear masks or wear them incorrectly, then we have to make choices for people in the best interest of the community. 

 

Stay in your parents basement Jack where it’s safe.  I am wearing masks, socially distancing and staying safe. Your idea of an absolute lockdown has about a .04 percent chance of anyone following it.  It ain’t happening.  

[Jack Parkman]

59 minutes ago, southsideirish71 said:

Stay in your parents basement Jack where it’s safe.  I am wearing masks, socially distancing and staying safe. Your idea of an absolute lockdown has about a .04 percent chance of anyone following it.  It ain’t happening.  

You don't even know what my idea is. 

This fucker is more dangerous indoors than outdoors. Keep people at home or outside. Minimize close contact indoors. 

Also, older people that have a problem with technology can have their kids or grandkids do their instacart for them. I'm sure they'd be glad to. 

Edited July 6, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[caulfield12]

3 hours ago, turnin' two said:

Sweden?  We have higher infection and death rates than Sweden, who really took a laissez faire approach.

But ok, that's fine.  Obviously the comparison's aren't perfect.  I was adding them just for a bit of perspective. There isn't a perfect comparison.  Georgia, Pennsylvania and Ohio are about the closest population-wise, but all are different from Illinois.  All have fewer cases than Illinois, but Georgia is gaining, but still below 50% of where Illinois is, but I wouldn't be surprised if they caught up.  Pennsylvania and Ohio each have about 60K fewer cases and have a similar trend to us.

 

Sweden 5420/10,100,000

That would mean 176,000 Americans would have died already.

[turnin' two]

33 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Sweden 5420/10,100,000

That would mean 176,000 Americans would have died already.

Except I was clearly talking about Illinois, not the entire US, so....

[caulfield12]

54 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Except I was clearly talking about Illinois, not the entire US, so....

And if we just went with Stockholm and excluded the remainder of the country?

That’s 2300 deaths out of 2.344 million in Stockholm County.

7020 deaths for metropolitan Chicago so far (I used 8 million population for Chicago)...compared to an extrapolated number of 7,850 for Stockholm based on population mortality rate for that particular metro county if you normalized in order to make a valid comparison.
 

Because comparing national rate of all of Sweden vs. Chicago metro doesn’t make sense, either.

Edited July 6, 2020 by caulfield12

[turnin' two]

39 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

And if we just went with Stockholm and excluded the remainder of the country?

Were you following the conversation?  I'll humor you.  If you compare Stockholm county and Cook county (that's how I could easily find the numbers -and I'm not going to pretend to be an expert on Swedish geography) the infection rate in Stockholm county is 8% and in Cook it is 7.6%.  The death rate in Stockholm county is .98%.  In Cook County it is .91%. So pretty comparable on the numbers.  But Cook county is twice as large.  That's why I used Sweden as a whole.  It has about 10 million people.  Illinois has about 12 million.  

I did say earlier, there isn't a perfect comparison for Illinois.  Even if you use the closest states in population, they are different, they don't have so much of the population located in such a small region of the state.  But, as I mentioned, the states closest to Illinois in population, have somewhere around 50-60% (ish - I don't exactly remember.  Ohio was better than that and Georgia was worse) of the cases.  

I just don't see why anyone would think we have done a great job.  I later used Sweden as an example because they have been completely panned for their crappy response, and their rates are surprisingly similar to what we have here in Illinois.

Edited July 6, 2020 by turnin' two

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, turnin' two said:

Were you following the conversation?  I'll humor you.  If you compare Stockholm county and Cook county (that's how I could easily find the numbers -and I'm not going to pretend to be an expert on Swedish geography) the infection rate in Stockholm county is 8% and in Cook it is 7.6%.  The death rate in Stockholm county is .98%.  In Cook County it is .91%. So pretty comparable on the numbers.  But Cook county is twice as large.  That's why I used Sweden as a whole.  It has about 10 million people.  Illinois has about 12 million.  

I did say earlier, there isn't a perfect comparison for Illinois.  Even if you use the closest states in population, they are different, they don't have so much of the population located in such a small region of the state.  But, as I mentioned, the states closest to Illinois in population, have somewhere around 50-60% (ish - I don't exactly remember.  Ohio was better than that and Georgia was worse) of the cases.  

I just don't see why anyone would think we have done a great job.  I later used Sweden as an example because they have been completely panned for their crappy response, and their rates are surprisingly similar to what we have here in Illinois.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/sweden-epidemiologist-anders-tegnell/2020/06/03/063b20e4-a5a0-11ea-b619-3f9133bbb482_story.html

[Harry Chappas]

7 hours ago, turnin' two said:

Were you following the conversation?  I'll humor you.  If you compare Stockholm county and Cook county (that's how I could easily find the numbers -and I'm not going to pretend to be an expert on Swedish geography) the infection rate in Stockholm county is 8% and in Cook it is 7.6%.  The death rate in Stockholm county is .98%.  In Cook County it is .91%. So pretty comparable on the numbers.  But Cook county is twice as large.  That's why I used Sweden as a whole.  It has about 10 million people.  Illinois has about 12 million.  

I did say earlier, there isn't a perfect comparison for Illinois.  Even if you use the closest states in population, they are different, they don't have so much of the population located in such a small region of the state.  But, as I mentioned, the states closest to Illinois in population, have somewhere around 50-60% (ish - I don't exactly remember.  Ohio was better than that and Georgia was worse) of the cases.  

I just don't see why anyone would think we have done a great job.  I later used Sweden as an example because they have been completely panned for their crappy response, and their rates are surprisingly similar to what we have here in Illinois.

What Illinois did better was remain locked down and opened gradually and in Chicago area mask wearing indoors is virtually 100%. 

Illinois was hammered early and is now in managing well while there are other states that have now exploded.  Those are the states now that have set us back and that is 100% on the federal government.

The warmer climates are now moving indoors while in Illinois people are more outdoors.....well until the excessive heat is now hitting us hard.  It is the indoor groups that are causing this boom.

 

 

 

[StrangeSox]

[StrangeSox]

They don't care how many of us suffer and die. There's no plan, no support, nothing. 

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, StrangeSox said:

If the Dow’s at 28,000 plus and NFL/NCAAFB going without interruption, they still think they have a puncher’s chance.

The problem is how long they can keep propping up the structural unemployment funding in September, October and November.

Plus, many of the southern and SW swing states are now getting completely battered. 
 

It’s also going to take some horrific debate gaffes for it to happen, though.

Edited July 6, 2020 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, StrangeSox said:

They don't care how many of us suffer and die. There's no plan, no support, nothing. 

The death rate still is decreasing, or at least leveling off despite the spikes in infections.  The combined knowledge/expertise/technology of the US healthcare system is catching up and fighting the virus to a draw at the moment, but we still don’t know what Oct/Nov/Dec holds.  If we were at 1,500-2,500 deaths per day instead of 500-750 and quickly shooting up to the 150-200,000 range, that would be one thing...it just seems the attention span for the story is wearing thin, fatigue is setting in and there’s a lull with protests as well as the “dog days” of a summer without much freedom approaching.

Other than the VP naming and what happens to the conventions, not much drama until we get to the final two months of this five plus year long march.

 

On second thought, you can put a fork in this whole charade...

 

Edited July 6, 2020 by caulfield12

[NorthSideSox72]

23 hours ago, turnin' two said:

Ok.  So much for following the data though.  Illinois has the 4th highest death total, and there are only 13 countries (not counting the US) that have more deaths than Illinois.  But I guess that is just me.

Just to add to what everyone else has pointed out, here's a simple one: Illinois was the first state, and is still one of only a few states, that have met the CDC guidelines for doing any kind of re-opening. That covers all the metrics that matter - infection rates and trends, deaths, hospitalizations, ICU capacity, and ventilator capacity. After a huge early surge that hit the large cities hardest for obvious reasons, Illinois has done arguably a better job than any other state. To say otherwise is just denying reality. You can nitpick specific things JB and the state has done or not done for sure, and nothing is perfect, but Illinois has clearly outperformed just about every other state if not all of them in response to the pandemic.

And this is coming from someone who did not want JB as our governor.

[Jack Parkman]

14 minutes ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

Just to add to what everyone else has pointed out, here's a simple one: Illinois was the first state, and is still one of only a few states, that have met the CDC guidelines for doing any kind of re-opening. That covers all the metrics that matter - infection rates and trends, deaths, hospitalizations, ICU capacity, and ventilator capacity. After a huge early surge that hit the large cities hardest for obvious reasons, Illinois has done arguably a better job than any other state. To say otherwise is just denying reality. You can nitpick specific things JB and the state has done or not done for sure, and nothing is perfect, but Illinois has clearly outperformed just about every other state if not all of them in response to the pandemic.

And this is coming from someone who did not want JB as our governor.

Hey, I don't deny that IL has probably done the best job of any state in the country. I just think that opening up is premature. Even with the numbers being as low as they are, I don't see how we're not back where we were in April by mid-August. I honestly don't think there's much we can do to slow the spread as long as: 

A) idiots continue to not wear masks at all or properly

B) People are going indoors. 

There's strong evidence that it's much safer to be outdoors around other people rather than indoors. What's scary is the following: What will our first winter in the age of Covid look like? Right now, people can do stuff outdoors but in the winter things will be very different. 

I wouldn't go eat in a restaurant right now. When the outdoor options are nil, I think shit is going to hit the fan. 

Edited July 6, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[southsider2k5]

It has been interesting to watch the outbreaks be worst in the parts of the country that are indoors the most.  The South in in their indoors season in the summer, while the north saw it more when it was cold outside.  It might just be conincidence, but will be interesting to see if it repeats as we get to fall and winter.