COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[Jose Abreu]

17 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

It has been interesting to watch the outbreaks be worst in the parts of the country that are indoors the most.  The South in in their indoors season in the summer, while the north saw it more when it was cold outside.  It might just be conincidence, but will be interesting to see if it repeats as we get to fall and winter.

I don't have any evidence for this, but with each passing day I believe more and more that the virus barely spreads (if at all) outdoors, but is quite dangerous indoors. It would explain so much.

[Jack Parkman]

17 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

I don't have any evidence for this, but with each passing day I believe more and more that the virus barely spreads (if at all) outdoors, but is quite dangerous indoors. It would explain so much.

^^^^

[hi8is]

23 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

I don't have any evidence for this, but with each passing day I believe more and more that the virus barely spreads (if at all) outdoors, but is quite dangerous indoors. It would explain so much.

Also would explain why hardly any increase was shown to be connected to those massive outdoor protests.

[bmags]

17 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

I don't have any evidence for this, but with each passing day I believe more and more that the virus barely spreads (if at all) outdoors, but is quite dangerous indoors. It would explain so much.

I think this is where the aerosol controversy will come to play. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/04/health/239-experts-with-one-big-claim-the-coronavirus-is-airborne.html

We are again in a situation where the WHO is slowplaying this but it is hard to believe otherwise.

With aerosol transmission it can  build up and hang where there is little air flow, and social distancing will not matter enough. At my work they said people will not need to wear masks when at their desks since we will be 6 ft apart...I'm guessing that is what many firms will follow (cdc advice after all). And it could be a mistake as big as the terrible mask advice.

Should we be trying to scale up medical-type air filters to deploy in schools/office buildings the way air planes have? It sure seems who and official cdc guidance have been more cautious about recommending guidelines which may have a high monetary cost and medium risk of  it being unnecessary even when it may have a high human cost if it is necessary.

[southsider2k5]

27 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

I don't have any evidence for this, but with each passing day I believe more and more that the virus barely spreads (if at all) outdoors, but is quite dangerous indoors. It would explain so much.

It seems like you need a more direct contact outdoors just based on the circumstantial evidence, Like I said, I am not ready to proclaim it a truth.  I still won't go around people at the beach, or if the beach is too crowded, I won't go out at all, but it just seems like an indoor spread is way easier.

[Jack Parkman]

5 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

It seems like you need a more direct contact outdoors just based on the circumstantial evidence, Like I said, I am not ready to proclaim it a truth.  I still won't go around people at the beach, or if the beach is too crowded, I won't go out at all, but it just seems like an indoor spread is way easier.

I don't think anyone is ready to proclaim it a truth, but evidence seems to be pointing to idea that aerosol spread is a major factor. 

[Dick Allen]

Someone supposedly has the Bubonic Plague in China. I wonder if that's next. We got hosed on the trade. They get Caulfield, we get Covid 19 and a Plague to be named later.

[StrangeSox]

Bubonic plague is easily treatable and containable these days.

[southsider2k5]

9 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

Bubonic plague is easily treatable and containable these days.

Yeah, most of the world has a level of immunity to it because we are all the ancestors of people who survived it.

[turnin' two]

2 hours ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

Just to add to what everyone else has pointed out, here's a simple one: Illinois was the first state, and is still one of only a few states, that have met the CDC guidelines for doing any kind of re-opening. That covers all the metrics that matter - infection rates and trends, deaths, hospitalizations, ICU capacity, and ventilator capacity. After a huge early surge that hit the large cities hardest for obvious reasons, Illinois has done arguably a better job than any other state. To say otherwise is just denying reality. You can nitpick specific things JB and the state has done or not done for sure, and nothing is perfect, but Illinois has clearly outperformed just about every other state if not all of them in response to the pandemic.

And this is coming from someone who did not want JB as our governor.

Illinois did a great job in June.  And so far in July.  But this state, especially Chicago (area) was a shit show in April and May.  I just fail to see how having the number of cases and deaths pretty much exactly in line with our population (5th in population, 6th in cases, 4th in deaths) is some sort  of win.  With only one exception, the states with more cases than Illinois have more people.  And the exception is New Jersey, which is a pretty unique circumstance.  Everything is going well now, and has been for about a month, and that is commendable.  But it isn't like Illinois is some beacon that handled this exceedingly well.  It could very well be that we were just into our curve sooner, so we are on the downside sooner.  

And I don't know that having an pointing out a high amount of cases and deaths is nitpicking.  The states nearest to Illinois in population all have drastically fewer cases.  Ohio and Pennsylvania are the closest to Illinois in population.  Pennsylvania has more people, and 60K fewer cases, and slightly fewer deaths.  Ohio has a million fewer people, but 90k fewer cases, and less than half the deaths of Illinois.  Based on those numbers, it is pretty clear that both those states have done better to this point.

Also, I don't mean this as an indictment on JB.  I think he has done fine.  Illinois as a whole.

But it is very clear that  I am the only one that thinks this way.  So I guess I am looking at things wrong.  So I'll join Tony and drop the mic on 150K people with COVID and 7,020 dead.  I mean, there are a whole 3 states with more fatalities.  Hooray!

 

 

[StrangeSox]

Didn't help how stupidly the federal government implemented an overseas travel ban. Remember those pics and videos from O'hare that weekend?

[caulfield12]

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/06/health/spain-coronavirus-antibody-study-lancet-intl/index.html
 

Spain's large-scale study on the coronavirus indicates just 5% of its population has developed antibodies, strengthening evidence that a so-called herd immunity to Covid-19 is "unachievable," the medical journal the Lancet reported on Monday.

The findings show that 95% of Spain's population remains susceptible to the virus. Herd immunity is achieved when enough of a population has become infected with a virus or bacteria -- or vaccinated against it -- to stop its circulation.

The European Center for Disease Control told CNN that Spain's research, on a nationwide representative sample of more than 61,000 participants, appears to be the largest study to date among a dozen serological studies on the coronavirus undertaken by European nations.

It adds to the findings of an antibody study involving 2,766 participants in Geneva, Switzerland, published in the Lancet on June 11.There have been similar studies in China and the United States and "the key finding from these representative cohorts is that most of the population appears to have remained unexposed" to Covid-19, "even in areas with widespread virus circulation," said a Lancet commentary published along with Spain's findings.

"In light of these findings, any proposed approach to achieve herd immunity through natural infection is not only highly unethical, but also unachievable," said the Lancet's commentary authors, Isabella Eckerle, head of the Geneva Centre for Emerging Viral Diseases, and Benjamin Meyer, a virologist at the University of Geneva.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Dick Allen said:

Someone supposedly has the Bubonic Plague in China. I wonder if that's next. We got hosed on the trade. They get Caulfield, we get Covid 19 and a Plague to be named later.

Modern antibiotics can prevent complications and death if administered quickly enough.  Although maybe the anti-antibiotics (probiotics?) crowd will resist that, too.

Somebody has been reading all the Dan Brown novels about 10-15 years late.
 

Also, China has largely eradicated plague, but occasional cases are still reported, especially among hunters coming into contact with fleas carrying the bacterium. 

So I prefer to blame Eric or Donald Jr.  And the first time I arrived here was actually 2007, so won’t take any responsibility for creating that 11 years and counting playoff-less drought.   Plus, it was in Spanish water reservoirs in March, 2019, and Italy months before the major breakout here.

Edited July 6, 2020 by caulfield12

[southsideirish71]

3 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

Hey, I don't deny that IL has probably done the best job of any state in the country. I just think that opening up is premature. Even with the numbers being as low as they are, I don't see how we're not back where we were in April by mid-August. I honestly don't think there's much we can do to slow the spread as long as: 

A) idiots continue to not wear masks at all or properly

B) People are going indoors. 

There's strong evidence that it's much safer to be outdoors around other people rather than indoors. What's scary is the following: What will our first winter in the age of Covid look like? Right now, people can do stuff outdoors but in the winter things will be very different. 

I wouldn't go eat in a restaurant right now. When the outdoor options are nil, I think shit is going to hit the fan. 

So you would have us still in phase 1?  At what point would we open up.  

[Balta1701]

3 hours ago, Jose Abreu said:

I don't have any evidence for this, but with each passing day I believe more and more that the virus barely spreads (if at all) outdoors, but is quite dangerous indoors. It would explain so much.

Put a couple things together:

1. More than 1/2 the people who get this spread it to no one

2. A large fraction of the cases where spreading occurs are due to super-spreading events, where it is the right person at the right time in the right situation and 10+ people get infected all at once

3. Infecting people depends on the dose

4. The dose gets concentrated indoors and diluted outdoors

I think what's going on outside is that it's probably easy to spread it to people you're close to if you're contagious at that point, but you can't spread it to someone 15 feet away because the wind dilutes it. Thus, you get some infections of family members, someone you're near, but you don't get 50 people infected very often - the superspreading events stay indoors.  We have some cases traced to a pool in the next neighborhood over right after they opened, for example. So IMO outdoors isn't automatically safe, but the chances of big spreading events like you get indoors are lower, and keeping 6+ feet of distance is far more effective outdoors.

[Jack Parkman]

6 minutes ago, southsideirish71 said:

So you would have us still in phase 1?  At what point would we open up.  

Not when most of the rest of the country is drowning in covid cases. It's just asking for trouble, unless they close the borders and don't let anyone in or out of IL. 

This is how things that people do in other states affect us. 

[southsideirish71]

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

Not when most of the rest of the country is drowning in covid cases. It's just asking for trouble, unless they close the borders and don't let anyone in or out of IL. 

 This is how things that people do in other states affect us. 

So you would have us in phase 1 and completely locked down.  

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, southsideirish71 said:

So you would have us in phase 1 and completely locked down.  

That would pretty much doom every country not self-reliant for its own food supply over time...

[Jack Parkman]

13 minutes ago, southsideirish71 said:

So you would have us in phase 1 and completely locked down.  

Somewhere between 1 and 3. There's a lot of evidence that you need to be more strict about indoor places, and you can be more lax outdoors. 

State parks, forest preserves, other outdoor things should be open but under 100 people. 

Nobody should be allowed anywhere indoors outside of their own home. 

Even the essential businesses being open and available to enter in phase 1. 

I believe that retail should remain open, but only employees are allowed inside. Curbside/delivery only. 

People just have to learn how to use instacart. 

so phase 0.5 for indoors, phase 3 for outdoors. 

I think that some essential businesses(i.e. food manufacturing) have to think about cutting their employees hours and production. It is what it is. Working conditions aren't safe enough for normal production. 

I think the huge issue here in the US is that we have no federal policy and there's pretty much no way to enforce them. 

Edited July 6, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[southsideirish71]

15 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Somewhere between 1 and 3. There's a lot of evidence that you need to be more strict about indoor places, and you can be more lax outdoors. 

 State parks, forest preserves, other outdoor things should be open but under 100 people. 

Nobody should be allowed anywhere indoors outside of their own home. 

 Even the essential businesses being open and available to enter in phase 1. 

I believe that retail should remain open, but only employees are allowed inside. Curbside/delivery only. 

People just have to learn how to use instacart. 

 so phase 0.5 for indoors, phase 3 for outdoors. 

I think that some essential businesses(i.e. food manufacturing) have to think about cutting their employees hours and production. It is what it is. Working conditions aren't safe enough for normal production. 

 I think the huge issue here in the US is that we have no federal policy and there's pretty much no way to enforce them. 

You would cut food production.  Cool.  So what happens when the old person who barely can use the internet cant add food to their instacart when the food is not there.  You just cut food production, so when that gets out into the press people will inevitably put a run on the food supply.  

 

 

[Jack Parkman]

10 minutes ago, southsideirish71 said:

You would cut food production.  Cool.  So what happens when the old person who barely can use the internet cant add food to their instacart when the food is not there.  You just cut food production, so when that gets out into the press people will inevitably put a run on the food supply.  

 

 

You have to ration. Stores already had a limit on meat during the shortage. It's not that hard. 

I'd have someone at the store working a phone order for curbside pickup for older folks. Open a damn phone line and take orders. It's not that different from ordering a pizza.  If they can't drive, they have someone that can do their instacart for them. I know older people who can and can't use instacart, and their kids order them food if they can't figure it out. It's not that hard. 

It's not safe to be indoors with strangers. 

There are all kinds of ways around your objections. 

Edited July 6, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[bmags]

1 hour ago, turnin' two said:

Illinois did a great job in June.  And so far in July.  But this state, especially Chicago (area) was a shit show in April and May.  I just fail to see how having the number of cases and deaths pretty much exactly in line with our population (5th in population, 6th in cases, 4th in deaths) is some sort  of win.  With only one exception, the states with more cases than Illinois have more people.  And the exception is New Jersey, which is a pretty unique circumstance.  Everything is going well now, and has been for about a month, and that is commendable.  But it isn't like Illinois is some beacon that handled this exceedingly well.  It could very well be that we were just into our curve sooner, so we are on the downside sooner.  

And I don't know that having an pointing out a high amount of cases and deaths is nitpicking.  The states nearest to Illinois in population all have drastically fewer cases.  Ohio and Pennsylvania are the closest to Illinois in population.  Pennsylvania has more people, and 60K fewer cases, and slightly fewer deaths.  Ohio has a million fewer people, but 90k fewer cases, and less than half the deaths of Illinois.  Based on those numbers, it is pretty clear that both those states have done better to this point.

Also, I don't mean this as an indictment on JB.  I think he has done fine.  Illinois as a whole.

But it is very clear that  I am the only one that thinks this way.  So I guess I am looking at things wrong.  So I'll join Tony and drop the mic on 150K people with COVID and 7,020 dead.  I mean, there are a whole 3 states with more fatalities.  Hooray!

 

 

The difference is Illinois gets a lot more international traffic than indiana, wisconsin or any other neighboring state both due to its economy but also being a hub for several airlines.

Being in that first group with a lot of cases was going to be more crippling than those that are seeing bad cases now. They were incapable of testing anyone but those already hospitalized, there was less PPE, there was less treatment knowledge, and less knowledge of spread.

We are fortunate to even know there are this many cases in TX and FL among young population, that was not the case in March.

So yeah, among those early hit states Illinois did very favorably when you compare it to DC and NYC metro that received a lot of the European traffic.

[southsider2k5]

31 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Not when most of the rest of the country is drowning in covid cases. It's just asking for trouble, unless they close the borders and don't let anyone in or out of IL. 

This is how things that people do in other states affect us. 

A bigger problem is going to be everyone from Illinois leaving the state for the weekend and coming back home after spending a weekend in crowds without using any common sense.  I can tell you from personal observations, between Porter, Beverly Shores, and Michigan City beaches and subsequent shops and eateries, the vast majority of plates were from Illinois, with some locals sprinkled in.

[bmags]

For me I'd have illinois in a modified phase 3 with much more leniency on outdoor activities but would not allow the indoor restaurants/bars that are allowed now.

[Jack Parkman]

2 minutes ago, Tony said:

According to Pew research from 2019:

• 33 million American's don't use the internet at all
• 27% of US adults over 65 don't use the internet at all
• 18% of households making under $30,000 don't use the internet
• 44% of households making under $30,000 don't have access to "broadband internet" which is basically standard internet at this point

I understand what you're trying to get at, but it's just not that simple.

That's what the phone lines/curbside are for. I'm not dumb and I know internet access isn't universal, though I think it is a basic utility and should be a right in modern society. 

So, you get around that with having phone orders and curbside pickup. Not different than ordering a pizza with a bunch of toppings on it. 

I guess the point is that we have the technology, so we should use it wherever possible. 

Edited July 6, 2020 by Jack Parkman