COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[caulfield12]

"Perhaps 27% of wealthy English landowners appear to have succumbed to plague," Science tells us, "whereas counts of rural tenant farmers in 1348 and 1349 show mortality rates mostly from 40% to 70%." It pays to have money...also, the Federal Reserve announced in May that nearly 40 percent of Americans with a household income below $40,000 had lost their jobs, whether they were laid off or furloughed.

Already, the specters of hunger and homelessness loom large. In New York, at least two million families are facing food insecurity every day. The strain on food banks is severe: at some larger distribution sites, the New York Times reports, "people line up as early as 5 in the morning and wait as long as six hours." Soup kitchens that had been serving 300 meals a day are now distributing 900. The miles-long lines of cars elsewhere in the country—the food-bank lines, not the testing lines—serve to illustrate the scale of the suffering. 

And now, across the country, the evictions have begun in earnest. It's hard to see what's changed since April, when I reported on New York's rent strike movement and its spread to other cities. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, like pretty much every other executive around, has resisted calls to cancel rent and provide relief to smaller landlords—which, in fairness, would probably be costly enough to require federal intervention. But beyond the moral atrocity of evicting someone during a pandemic, it's just a practical absurdity: people who can't work can't pay. And restaurants and other businesses operating at limited capacity—at best—can't pay in full.

https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a33215422/coronavirus-pandemic-economic-turmoil-trump-statues/

 

Edited July 7, 2020 by caulfield12

[StrangeSox]

2 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

All a 3rd party candidate means is a 100% chance of a Trump win.  You'd need to have someone who would convince Trump voters to change their votes, and I think even if Jesus Christ himself ran as a 3rd party candidate, they wouldn't vote for him because he was too hippy dippy.

You also still have the Electoral College problem.

A 3rd party candidate who does well enough to actually win some states just makes it really, really likely that no one candidate gets 270 EV's. In that case, the election just goes to the House but not based on current representation, instead each state getting a delegation. With today's breakdown, it's just guarantee that the GOP gets to choose the next President since they control more states even though they have so many fewer representatives.

Our political system makes it basically impossible for their to be three or more competitive parties at the national level. If you want a multi party presidential system, you probably need to require a majority of the popular vote and do run offs with the top two candidates if no one comes away with 50%+1 in the first round.

Edited July 7, 2020 by StrangeSox

[bmags]

A surprisingly very good day for illinois. Yesterday had a 2.9% pos rate but was the first day to actually show the drop from idph being closed on 7/4, with only 18k tests and a 620 cases announced.

Today then sees a lower 587 case count with 28k tests processed, a 2.1% rate. That actually lowers the 7 day to 2.5%.

The state really needs to get through this month under 3 before its test and trace program is up and running. So every day is fingers crossed.

[Dick Allen]

When the weather gets warm, this is just going to go away.

[Iwritecode]

23 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

Somewhere between 1 and 3. There's a lot of evidence that you need to be more strict about indoor places, and you can be more lax outdoors. 

State parks, forest preserves, other outdoor things should be open but under 100 people. 

Nobody should be allowed anywhere indoors outside of their own home. 

Even the essential businesses being open and available to enter in phase 1. 

I believe that retail should remain open, but only employees are allowed inside. Curbside/delivery only. 

People just have to learn how to use instacart. 

so phase 0.5 for indoors, phase 3 for outdoors. 

I think that some essential businesses(i.e. food manufacturing) have to think about cutting their employees hours and production. It is what it is. Working conditions aren't safe enough for normal production. 

I think the huge issue here in the US is that we have no federal policy and there's pretty much no way to enforce them. 

Gas stations would be screwed. They are essential so they'd have to stay open for all the people still going to work/making deliveries/etc... Yet they make very little money on the actual sale of gas. They get by mostly on the sale of the stuff inside the store. They don't have websites, curbside pickup or instacart delivery services.

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, Iwritecode said:

Gas stations would be screwed. They are essential so they'd have to stay open for all the people still going to work/making deliveries/etc... Yet they make very little money on the actual sale of gas. They get by mostly on the sale of the stuff inside the store. They don't have websites, curbside pickup or instacart delivery services.

The problem remains:

If we don't fix this, everyone is screwed.

If schools can't safely open in the fall everyone is screwed. Every city that depends on them basically goes bankrupt along with all the businesses in every college town. Parents can't go to work, so businesses are out so many of their workers. Day cares in Texas are having a pretty ugly looking outbreak right now, so day cares are out. The health care industry here is a mess because the only thing they can treat is COVID right now, they're back to shutting down all "nonessential" treatments, so the health care industry collapses if this goes on too long and that's what, 15% of the economy? If we can't get this under control bars and restaurants won't be open for what, 9-12 months? Every landlord goes bankrupt because they can't have all their tenants pay 0 rent for 12 months. Tourism is a mess, do you want to go to Florida and visit Disneyworld and hang out on indoor rides right now? You can keep going up and down the list, everyone is screwed. 

We have basically 3 choices. 

1. Get this under control now. Stop messing around and get it under control nationwide.
2. Keep an awful lot of things shut because they're simply not safe, and massively increase government assistance. Probably needs to be done anyway to get it under control.
3. Economic collapse.

[ron883]

6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The problem remains:

If we don't fix this, everyone is screwed.

If schools can't safely open in the fall everyone is screwed. Every city that depends on them basically goes bankrupt along with all the businesses in every college town. Parents can't go to work, so businesses are out so many of their workers. Day cares in Texas are having a pretty ugly looking outbreak right now, so day cares are out. The health care industry here is a mess because the only thing they can treat is COVID right now, they're back to shutting down all "nonessential" treatments, so the health care industry collapses if this goes on too long and that's what, 15% of the economy? If we can't get this under control bars and restaurants won't be open for what, 9-12 months? Every landlord goes bankrupt because they can't have all their tenants pay 0 rent for 12 months. Tourism is a mess, do you want to go to Florida and visit Disneyworld and hang out on indoor rides right now? You can keep going up and down the list, everyone is screwed. 

We have basically 3 choices. 

1. Get this under control now. Stop messing around and get it under control nationwide.
2. Keep an awful lot of things shut because they're simply not safe, and massively increase government assistance. Probably needs to be done anyway to get it under control.
3. Economic collapse.

There is a chance everyone is screwed anyway. What if we don't develop a vaccine in the near future? What if this thing mutates and previous immunity is gone? If we get it under control, what stops it from coming back when things open up? 

 

Are you hedging your bets on a working vaccine being developed in the near future?

[Balta1701]

10 minutes ago, Yearnin' for Yermin said:

There is a chance everyone is screwed anyway. What if we don't develop a vaccine in the near future? What if this thing mutates and previous immunity is gone? If we get it under control, what stops it from coming back when things open up? 

 

Are you hedging your bets on a working vaccine being developed in the near future?

Yes, I think there's a very good chance that there is at least a vaccine in limited availability (going to health care providers first) by early next year. There are too many promising candidates and too many good scientists on this, and too many positive signs early. The first vaccine may not be perfect, but temporary immunity that shuts this thing down for 3-6 months or just turns this from potentially catastrophic into a moderate flu would be incredibly useful.

 

If one isn't developed, then the United States specifically is in awful shape because we have refused to do what is necessary to at least get this under control. Texas right now is having about 10k real cases per day, and that's enough to overwhelm hospitals, basically leave no way to open bars or restaurants, turn every business into a facility requiring full medical protective gear. Over the course of a year, that rate would give Texas 3.65 million people having this disease - that's 12.5% of the state's population. Texas could maintain the current rate of illness for 5 years before something resembling herd immunity is reached, and that's assuming strong immune responses and maintained immunity. Could Texas sustain its economy for 5 years with 0 elective surgeries in hospitals, a continuing crisis in day care facilities, all its universities closed, its schools all allowing students 2 days a week, all its bars closed, and restaurants at 50% capacity limits? Hell they're not going to be able to sustain this for even a few months, let alone what it takes to get to herd immunity. 

We have to get this thing under control. The answers are still the same they were a couple months ago. We might be able to be smarter about businesses being open curbside, outdoor activities, sanitation and masks, but we need to get new cases down to a manageable level (a couple hundred per day in large states like TX or IL) and we need an organized contact tracing program to keep it from flaring back up every time a restaurant allows 50 people in. Texas, Florida, Arizona, Southern California in particular, plus about 1/2 the country - these states need stronger shutdowns now, more complete mask mandates that are enforced, and plans for actual contact tracing right now. They're working hard to export it back everywhere else, so I can promise we will send it back to Illinois soon enough.

[caulfield12]

Florida teen received unproven treatment at home (hydroxychloroquine) before dying of COVID-19 at hospital, report says

https://www.yahoo.com/news/florida-teen-treated-hydroxychloroquine-home-143901969.html

 

 

Even WITH a vaccine, we're probably screwed for a number of reasons.

1)  Only 2/3rd's of Americans will take it, at best.  Might be lower than 50% if it comes from another country or is deemed as too expensive.

2) The virus is constantly mutating and evolving, so it's quite possible the immunity derived from a vaccine would only last for 2-3 months, and not long-term.

3) Due to that 2-3 month limited immunity and lack of a comprehensive plan or strategy for citizens all over the world to receive treatment, it's going to keep recirculating around the globe and "herd immunity" will be almost impossible to achieve, at least in the next couple of years.    We don't have a multilateral approach through the WHO, we have America on its own, the EU on its own, and China/SE Asia attempting to educate the rest of the world with a limited reservoir of effectiveness and trust available to call upon.

For example, if the solution is tied into the Gates Foundation, it won't be much different that George Soros himself developing a cure.   There will be all those anti-science/conspiracy theorists around the world stubbornly resisting until they get desperate or someone in their family dies first.

4)   All those people (mostly under 40) who end up being asymptomatic, roughly 30-40%, are developing even less of an antibody/immune system response than those who actually become ill.  But they are quite effective at spreading it around to everyone else.

Edited July 7, 2020 by caulfield12

[Balta1701]

Speaking of which....WE DID IT TEXAS! 10K IN A DAY!

 

 

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

Florida teen received unproven treatment at home (hydroxychloroquine) before dying of COVID-19 at hospital, report says

https://www.yahoo.com/news/florida-teen-treated-hydroxychloroquine-home-143901969.html

 

 

Even WITH a vaccine, we're probably screwed for a number of reasons.

1)  Only 2/3rd's of Americans will take it, at best.  Might be lower than 50% if it comes from another country or is deemed as too expensive.

2) The virus is constantly mutating and evolving, so it's quite possible the immunity derived from a vaccine would only last for 2-3 months, and not long-term.

3) Due to that 2-3 month limited immunity and lack of a comprehensive plan or strategy for citizens all over the world to receive treatment, it's going to keep recirculating around the globe and "herd immunity" will be almost impossible to achieve, at least in the next couple of years.    We don't have a multilateral approach through the WHO, we have America on its own, the EU on its own, and China/SE Asia attempting to educate the rest of the world with a limited reservoir of effectiveness and trust available to call upon.

For example, if the solution is tied into the Gates Foundation, it won't be much different that George Soros himself developing a cure.   There will be all those anti-science/conspiracy theorists around the world stubbornly resisting until they get desperate or someone in their family dies first.

Although there's one major mutation that has been monitored in the spike proteins that occurred between China and Italy, so far viral mutation has not given us something that is unlikely to respond to treatment. Plus, some of the vaccine candidates target the key spike proteins that, if those change, would be unlikely to make the virus more effective at attacking us, since those are about as well evolved for that purpose as you can find.

The immunity lasting only a few months is more because of how our immune system works than because of the virus itself. We know other diseases like that and how to handle them - we use booster shots. With more than 1 vaccine candidate available, training the immune system to attack this thing is quite plausible, it might just take a few shots. 

[caulfield12]

18 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Although there's one major mutation that has been monitored in the spike proteins that occurred between China and Italy, so far viral mutation has not given us something that is unlikely to respond to treatment. Plus, some of the vaccine candidates target the key spike proteins that, if those change, would be unlikely to make the virus more effective at attacking us, since those are about as well evolved for that purpose as you can find.

The immunity lasting only a few months is more because of how our immune system works than because of the virus itself. We know other diseases like that and how to handle them - we use booster shots. With more than 1 vaccine candidate available, training the immune system to attack this thing is quite plausible, it might just take a few shots. 

We shall see.  Another interesting aspect of this is the "cytokine storm" phenomenon, which can be a problem for the young/healthy because the immune system goes awry and the inflammatory "over-response" can flare out of control.   Can stimulating that response in the older or those with pre-existing conditions work, and how to regulate that....?

It's just incredible to me how we have these cities of tens of millions of people here in China (at least 100 with a million plus) and we're still flipping out in places like Beijing with under 100 asymptomatic cases and start talking about 28 day quarantines.   At one point, there was an idea in the US that if the daily death count for a state was somewhere between 25-75 people (depending on the population), things would be closing in on being ready to reopen.   We still can't travel pretty much anywhere outside Hubei Province without going through these endless quarantine periods (then quarantining about return, making most travel almost pointless.)

Frustrating, because I have the same questions over and over again from students who just graduated and are stuck because they can't get visa appointments, plane tickets....or even get their basic questions answered about university fall plans since they're still changing nearly every 24 hours.   That uncertainty is what's almost an equal enemy to the virus itself.  I have students who missed an entire year of school because they couldn't go to Australia during the outbreak, and I'm having to recommend Canada and the UK/EU or even HK/Singapore over the US even though I'm an American and part of my job security is tied into being an expert on getting kids into the Top 30-40 US schools.

One of them has been staying in a friend's place in Florida since classes were over at Duke (he was afraid to come back to China and then not be able to return to the US) and he's studying biochem and that's a subject that you necessitates in-person lab work and research/application of theory to practical situations.   He's really unsure what will happen, they keep using the phrase "hybrid" classes, but God knows what definition the Trump administration will try to apply before they start deporting students (must have half or more classes "in person"?  but what if those classes themselves are split between online lectures and in-person labs, how would that be counted?)

Edited July 7, 2020 by caulfield12

[StateStSports]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

Although there's one major mutation that has been monitored in the spike proteins that occurred between China and Italy, so far viral mutation has not given us something that is unlikely to respond to treatment. Plus, some of the vaccine candidates target the key spike proteins that, if those change, would be unlikely to make the virus more effective at attacking us, since those are about as well evolved for that purpose as you can find.

The immunity lasting only a few months is more because of how our immune system works than because of the virus itself. We know other diseases like that and how to handle them - we use booster shots. With more than 1 vaccine candidate available, training the immune system to attack this thing is quite plausible, it might just take a few shots. 

 

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Florida teen received unproven treatment at home (hydroxychloroquine) before dying of COVID-19 at hospital, report says

https://www.yahoo.com/news/florida-teen-treated-hydroxychloroquine-home-143901969.html

 

 

Even WITH a vaccine, we're probably screwed for a number of reasons.

1)  Only 2/3rd's of Americans will take it, at best.  Might be lower than 50% if it comes from another country or is deemed as too expensive.

2) The virus is constantly mutating and evolving, so it's quite possible the immunity derived from a vaccine would only last for 2-3 months, and not long-term.

3) Due to that 2-3 month limited immunity and lack of a comprehensive plan or strategy for citizens all over the world to receive treatment, it's going to keep recirculating around the globe and "herd immunity" will be almost impossible to achieve, at least in the next couple of years.    We don't have a multilateral approach through the WHO, we have America on its own, the EU on its own, and China/SE Asia attempting to educate the rest of the world with a limited reservoir of effectiveness and trust available to call upon.

For example, if the solution is tied into the Gates Foundation, it won't be much different that George Soros himself developing a cure.   There will be all those anti-science/conspiracy theorists around the world stubbornly resisting until they get desperate or someone in their family dies first.

4)   All those people (mostly under 40) who end up being asymptomatic, roughly 30-40%, are developing even less of an antibody/immune system response than those who actually become ill.  But they are quite effective at spreading it around to everyone else.

Caulfield my friend you really are wound tightly.  I get it as I am just as on edge as you. Please read this and see if it hopes at all...

 

[The Beast]

19 hours ago, Yearnin' for Yermin said:

I can definitely see it happening. Seeing the failure that was CHAZ/CHOP, statues being torn down, the media treating Trump unfairly, etc. This type of stuff drives moderates away from the left. The polls show Biden smoking Trump, but we all remember 2016. I can easily see Trump winning again. 

I’m a moderate and there’s no way I’m breaking from the left nationally. What exactly was CHAZ/CHOP about? Statues don’t really bother me, especially if they are confederate statues.

I wonder how the polls are so inaccurate. People are just lying? Pollsters have to somehow know if someone is lying by the answers to questions.

 

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, StateStSports said:

 

Caulfield my friend you really are wound tightly.  I get it as I am just as on edge as you. Please read this and see if it hopes at all...

 

The word "regulators" has lost all meaning for me since 2008-09...industry, regulators and politicians are all in bed together.  Follow the money.

And perhaps if more were “wound tightly” enough to take this seriously, there would be better outcomes?

Edited July 8, 2020 by caulfield12

[The Beast]

6 hours ago, Tony said:

This is from the most watched cable news show in the country, who just last week set a new all-time viewership record.

I think we can stop with the “I just don’t understand why the mask has to be a political thing...”

 

How is one guy’s opinion so popular? And how is that network so popular when people often cite their talking heads? I don’t get it.

[Balta1701]

8 minutes ago, The Beast said:

How is one guy’s opinion so popular? And how is that network so popular when people often cite their talking heads? I don’t get it.

It’s no secret. Someone from Stormfront.org summarized it by saying “he’s making the white nationalist talking points better than they have.”

https://www.mediamatters.org/tucker-carlson/son-stormfront-founder-my-family-watches-tucker-carlson-because-they-feel-he-making

[pcq]

14 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

The problem remains:

If we don't fix this, everyone is screwed.

If schools can't safely open in the fall everyone is screwed. Every city that depends on them basically goes bankrupt along with all the businesses in every college town. Parents can't go to work, so businesses are out so many of their workers. Day cares in Texas are having a pretty ugly looking outbreak right now, so day cares are out. The health care industry here is a mess because the only thing they can treat is COVID right now, they're back to shutting down all "nonessential" treatments, so the health care industry collapses if this goes on too long and that's what, 15% of the economy? If we can't get this under control bars and restaurants won't be open for what, 9-12 months? Every landlord goes bankrupt because they can't have all their tenants pay 0 rent for 12 months. Tourism is a mess, do you want to go to Florida and visit Disneyworld and hang out on indoor rides right now? You can keep going up and down the list, everyone is screwed. 

We have basically 3 choices. 

1. Get this under control now. Stop messing around and get it under control nationwide.
2. Keep an awful lot of things shut because they're simply not safe, and massively increase government assistance. Probably needs to be done anyway to get it under control.
3. Economic collapse.

Good to know that cities like Atlanta are forbidden by state law to mandate masks. Kemp has been surrounded by corruption. 

[bmags]

 

[caulfield12]

What’s another 50-100,000 lives at this point?

 

"In Germany, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and many other countries, SCHOOLS ARE OPEN WITH NO PROBLEMS. The Dems think it would be bad for them politically if U.S. schools open before the November Election, but is important for the children & families. May cut off funding if not open!" he tweeted.

All those countries have suppressed the virus in one way or the other, whereas the US is rocketing up at record levels -- making it harder and less safe to open the schools. 

The President then tweeted his disagreement with the US Centers from Disease Control and Prevention guidelines for safely reopening schools, calling their recommendations "very tough" and "expensive."

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/08/politics/donald-trump-schools-coronavirus-education/index.html

 

Waiting for about 1,000 lawsuits, beginning with MIT and Harvard in Massachusetts District Court...

[caulfield12]

Here’s the question every parent should be asking...

Are you and your children willing to pay another 15-25% in university tuition increases if 1.2 million international students from China, India, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Canada, etc., are blocked  from coming to the US, deported or forced to choose universities in UK, Canada, Australia, Hong Kong and Singapore instead?

It’s basically the same question that goes for bringing back significant amounts of manufacturing to the US...can the middle class really afford to give up the subsidies that cheap foreign labor and sky-high international education provides (keeping in-state tuition lower)?  Can we afford to lose 40% of the potential start-ups that would have been driven by students from other countries after graduation? 

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/08/americas/international-student-visa-united-states-intl-hnk/index.html

[southsider2k5]

38 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

What’s another 50-100,000 lives at this point?

 

"In Germany, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and many other countries, SCHOOLS ARE OPEN WITH NO PROBLEMS. The Dems think it would be bad for them politically if U.S. schools open before the November Election, but is important for the children & families. May cut off funding if not open!" he tweeted.

All those countries have suppressed the virus in one way or the other, whereas the US is rocketing up at record levels -- making it harder and less safe to open the schools. 

The President then tweeted his disagreement with the US Centers from Disease Control and Prevention guidelines for safely reopening schools, calling their recommendations "very tough" and "expensive."

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/08/politics/donald-trump-schools-coronavirus-education/index.html

 

Waiting for about 1,000 lawsuits, beginning with MIT and Harvard in Massachusetts District Court...

Schools are open because those countries TOOK THE MEASURES NECESARY TO CUT DOWN ON INFECTIONS AND RATES IN THEIR COUNTRIES.

[StrangeSox]

We very stupidly focused on making sure that bars, dine-in restaurants and hair salons were open instead of making it safe enough to reliably open schools and daycares. Can't have a functional modern economy without child care options.

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, StrangeSox said:

We very stupidly focused on making sure that bars, dine-in restaurants and hair salons were open instead of making it safe enough to reliably open schools and daycares. Can't have a functional modern economy without child care options.

This is the dirty secret.  They want to force schools open, so they can force people back to work.  Schools are their solution to child care.

[NWINFan]

My daughter lives in Evansville, IN and works in a restaurant there. Two of her co-workers called in to the manager and said they couldn't come in because they each tested positive for the virus. The manager said they were making it up, and it was all a hoax. 

My daughter has had little contact with the two but will get tested to be on the safe side. We will see if testing is easy to get as the doofus-in-charge has said. I advised her to quit the job.

The manager was playing the stupid game of denial. Say something isn't true because it makes him uncomfortable accomplishes nothing. Meanwhile, he pressured the employees to come in, and possibly infect the rest of the staff and some of the customers. Yeah, that is a real solution. It's all a hoax.

The manager does want to keep his business thriving and open. That can be understood. However, if his place becomes known as a hot spot, the business will suffer anyway. Also, not to mention, who knows how many more will be infected. If that is magnified all over the city, another shutdown will happen, and his business go down with it. 

The denial game doesn't work. Not wearing a mask doesn't work. Throwing caution to the wind doesn't work. Is this so hard to understand?