COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[bmags]

35 minutes ago, NWINFan said:

My daughter lives in Evansville, IN and works in a restaurant there. Two of her co-workers called in to the manager and said they couldn't come in because they each tested positive for the virus. The manager said they were making it up, and it was all a hoax. 

My daughter has had little contact with the two but will get tested to be on the safe side. We will see if testing is easy to get as the doofus-in-charge has said. I advised her to quit the job.

The manager was playing the stupid game of denial. Say something isn't true because it makes him uncomfortable accomplishes nothing. Meanwhile, he pressured the employees to come in, and possibly infect the rest of the staff and some of the customers. Yeah, that is a real solution. It's all a hoax.

The manager does want to keep his business thriving and open. That can be understood. However, if his place becomes known as a hot spot, the business will suffer anyway. Also, not to mention, who knows how many more will be infected. If that is magnified all over the city, another shutdown will happen, and his business go down with it. 

The denial game doesn't work. Not wearing a mask doesn't work. Throwing caution to the wind doesn't work. Is this so hard to understand?

In illinois and Indiana testing really will be easy. I recommend going to state-run facilities as I experienced and other anecdotal experience they seem to be consistently faster in turnaround than some private labs like the CVS drive thrus.

In texas/florida right now, not so much.

[Dick Allen]

53 minutes ago, NWINFan said:

My daughter lives in Evansville, IN and works in a restaurant there. Two of her co-workers called in to the manager and said they couldn't come in because they each tested positive for the virus. The manager said they were making it up, and it was all a hoax. 

My daughter has had little contact with the two but will get tested to be on the safe side. We will see if testing is easy to get as the doofus-in-charge has said. I advised her to quit the job.

The manager was playing the stupid game of denial. Say something isn't true because it makes him uncomfortable accomplishes nothing. Meanwhile, he pressured the employees to come in, and possibly infect the rest of the staff and some of the customers. Yeah, that is a real solution. It's all a hoax.

The manager does want to keep his business thriving and open. That can be understood. However, if his place becomes known as a hot spot, the business will suffer anyway. Also, not to mention, who knows how many more will be infected. If that is magnified all over the city, another shutdown will happen, and his business go down with it. 

The denial game doesn't work. Not wearing a mask doesn't work. Throwing caution to the wind doesn't work. Is this so hard to understand?

I think you gave her sound advice. She shouldn't work for that moron. I hope she is Covid-free.

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, NWINFan said:

My daughter lives in Evansville, IN and works in a restaurant there. Two of her co-workers called in to the manager and said they couldn't come in because they each tested positive for the virus. The manager said they were making it up, and it was all a hoax. 

My daughter has had little contact with the two but will get tested to be on the safe side. We will see if testing is easy to get as the doofus-in-charge has said. I advised her to quit the job.

The manager was playing the stupid game of denial. Say something isn't true because it makes him uncomfortable accomplishes nothing. Meanwhile, he pressured the employees to come in, and possibly infect the rest of the staff and some of the customers. Yeah, that is a real solution. It's all a hoax.

The manager does want to keep his business thriving and open. That can be understood. However, if his place becomes known as a hot spot, the business will suffer anyway. Also, not to mention, who knows how many more will be infected. If that is magnified all over the city, another shutdown will happen, and his business go down with it. 

The denial game doesn't work. Not wearing a mask doesn't work. Throwing caution to the wind doesn't work. Is this so hard to understand?

Business people in this country don't have to be very good at business.

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

This is the dirty secret.  They want to force schools open, so they can force people back to work.  Schools are their solution to child care.

The Texas Education Agency yesterday required schools to open (parents can opt out). Meanwhile, the Texas Education Agency will be meeting remotely at least through the end of 2020 because it's not safe to gather in groups. 

[StrangeSox]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[StrangeSox]

59 minutes ago, bmags said:

In illinois and Indiana testing really will be easy. I recommend going to state-run facilities as I experienced and other anecdotal experience they seem to be consistently faster in turnaround than some private labs like the CVS drive thrus.

In texas/florida right now, not so much.

Testing results can take days or even a full week. It's absurd. This is what you get as a result (not IL, but same things happen here):

Why did Illinois rush to Phase 4 without the necessary testing volume, turnaround time, and crucially the 90% contact tracing within 24 hours? 

 

[greg775]

Jim Harbaugh today: "COVID is part of our society. It wasn’t caused by football or caused by sports. There’s no expert view right now that I’m aware of that sports is going to make that worse."

Harbaugh's position is obviously the same one as Trump's administration. We're going to let COVID-19 run its course and have group immunity. Now if it's true you can get it, get over it, then catch it again in 2 months, a whole hella lot of people are going to have COVID all winter/spring. I don't really understand herd immunity if it exists. It's kind of scary that the platform is to just act as it's business as usual except for the six-feet precaution thing and wearing a mask and not allowing large group gatherings except for societal protests in the streets. Reading this thread with posts from people following it closer than I am, it seems like it's not going to be pretty. I wish we'd hear more about hospitals being built/converted because if Harbaugh's position is reality, my guess is all our medical people are going to be doing is treating COVID in ICU's and from what I read we don't have the capacity and the amount of ventilators which is kind of scary.

My point: Harbaugh's comment is going to be the new normal because it's obvious Trump wants the economy to rebound or he has no chance of being re-elected (selfish move) and our school leaders, at least on the university level, realize they MUST be open lest they close their doors likely forever via bankruptcy. Ditto sports commissioners and college ADs and presidents. They realize sports must go on.

Edited July 8, 2020 by greg775

[Soxbadger]

1 hour ago, StrangeSox said:

Testing results can take days or even a full week. It's absurd. This is what you get as a result (not IL, but same things happen here):

Why did Illinois rush to Phase 4 without the necessary testing volume, turnaround time, and crucially the 90% contact tracing within 24 hours? 

 

My daughter had a covid test and received results within 24 hours. Prior to test I asked how long and they said it could be same day or at worst tomorrow.

Why did Illinois move to Phase 4? Because at some point there has to be a balance. Until the federal govt can be relied on to bail out sectors, you cant just crush restaurants/stores etc indefinitely. 

[pcq]

We got what we voted for when it comes to health and human services. I did not expect the opposition to get away with such overt evil-doing. 

[Jack Parkman]

3 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Business people in this country don't have to be very good at business.

Yep, being really greedy will suffice. 

 

Also, Covid positives are rising in IL. Seems to be obvious phase 4 was premature. Rembember, positives and deaths are a lagging indicator. So this means that cases were on the rise even before going into phase 4. 

 

Edited July 8, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[StrangeSox]

27 minutes ago, Soxbadger said:

My daughter had a covid test and received results within 24 hours. Prior to test I asked how long and they said it could be same day or at worst tomorrow.

Why did Illinois move to Phase 4? Because at some point there has to be a balance. Until the federal govt can be relied on to bail out sectors, you cant just crush restaurants/stores etc indefinitely. 

One of the IDPH's stated requirements for Phase 4 was 90% contact tracing within 24 hours. We decided to ignore the guidelines set out by health experts.

 

We're seeing what happens when you try to "balance" but aren't adequately prepared to actually handle the pandemic on a bunch of states, and Illinois is climbing upward in cases too. Setting official policy too aggressively can lead to worse health and economic outcomes. If the pandemic starts raging here again, you'll see traffic to stores and restaurants drop off anyway.

[Soxbadger]

6 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

One of the IDPH's stated requirements for Phase 4 was 90% contact tracing within 24 hours. We decided to ignore the guidelines set out by health experts.

 

We're seeing what happens when you try to "balance" but aren't adequately prepared to actually handle the pandemic on a bunch of states, and Illinois is climbing upward in cases too. Setting official policy too aggressively can lead to worse health and economic outcomes. If the pandemic starts raging here again, you'll see traffic to stores and restaurants drop off anyway.

Last 5 days for IL:

862, 639, 614, 587, 980

Had you posted 30 minutes ago the 980 wouldnt be there and the trend would have been down and the statement "Climbing upward" would have been false.

So I dont think you can say IL is climbing upwards just yet. Outside of today, IL was trending down. And there are no other states that operated identical to IL, so you cant really compare.

[caulfield12]

2 min ago

Tulsa is seeing an increase of Covid-19 cases after a week of declining numbers 

From CNN's Kay Jones

Dr. Bruce Dart, executive director of the Tulsa Health Department, said that there was a 20% decline in new Covid-19 cases the week of June 28 through July 4. However, he said there are high numbers being reported this week —nearly 500 new cases in two days — and the trends are showing that those numbers will increase. 

Tulsa Health Department reported 266 new cases today, bringing the total number in the county to at least 4,571. 

When asked if the cases are going up due to the rally President Trump held on June 20, Dart said that there were several large events a little over two weeks ago, which is about right. "I guess we just connect the dots." 
 

 

Meanwhile, we have Covid-positive idiots like Bolsonario in Brazil vetoing a plan to help thousands of indigenous people in Brazil who have contacted the virus and/or are considered high risk...this is what we worried about in January and February, countries in the developing world being overwhelmed or indifferent in the face of a health care crisis.  Somehow, we’ve avoided massive spread in Africa, but that will be one of the next dominoes to fall.

Indigenous communities face particularly daunting odds to survival during the pandemic. Most of Brazil’s roughly 896,000 Indigenous people live in the Amazon region, where the nearest hospital may be days away by boat and offer limited care. Indigenous Brazilians also have higher rates of malnutrition, anemia and obesity than the general population – risk factors for severe COVID-19.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-indigenous/brazils-bolsonaro-vetoes-plans-to-offer-covid-19-support-to-indigenous-people-idUSKBN2492XX

[StrangeSox]

17 minutes ago, Soxbadger said:

Last 5 days for IL:

862, 639, 614, 587, 980

Had you posted 30 minutes ago the 980 wouldnt be there and the trend would have been down and the statement "Climbing upward" would have been false.

So I dont think you can say IL is climbing upwards just yet. Outside of today, IL was trending down. And there are no other states that operated identical to IL, so you cant really compare.

You need to look at the rolling 3- or 7-day averages. That smooths out daily fluctuations. It's how most of the major medical trackers show their data. Johns Hopkins' dashboard does the 3-day average. 91-divoc has a 7-day average

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states/illinois

https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/states.html

We've been climbing on the rolling averages for about two weeks now. I don't think we're seeing increased hospitalizations yet, but we can't safely reopen at 800-1000+ cases a day with little contact tracing. It's too large and we don't have the systems in place to smother local outbreaks. Illinois is still in decent shape, but it's getting a little bit worse right now, not better. 

 

And at the end of the day, we still had Illinois setting out a great plan with solid targets, meeting them to get to Phase 3, and then abandoning that plan to rush to Phase 4. I hope we don't reap the consequences of the decision to prioritize indoor restaurants and bars over public health expert recommendations.

Edited July 8, 2020 by StrangeSox

[Soxbadger]

17 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

You need to look at the rolling 3- or 7-day averages. That smooths out daily fluctuations. It's how most of the major medical trackers show their data. Johns Hopkins' dashboard does the 3-day average. 91-divoc has a 7-day average

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states/illinois

https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/states.html

We've been climbing on the rolling averages for about two weeks now. I don't think we're seeing increased hospitalizations yet, but we can't safely reopen at 800-1000+ cases a day with little contact tracing. It's too large and we don't have the systems in place to smother local outbreaks. Illinois is still in decent shape, but it's getting a little bit worse right now, not better. 

 

And at the end of the day, we still had Illinois setting out a great plan with solid targets, meeting them to get to Phase 3, and then abandoning that plan to rush to Phase 4. I hope we don't reap the consequences of the decision to prioritize indoor restaurants and bars over public health expert recommendations.

I guess we just have a different view. Unless the entire US follows the same path, I think it was unrealistic to believe that IL could ever get it under 500 per day consistently. I think  a reasonable goal is somewhere between 500-1000. With the current restrictions in place in IL, I think that its enough for IL have some benefits.

Again this is all based on the people of Illinois acting responsible. Given the current status of the US, I think IL earned their chance. Especially as even if IL was completely shut down, it wouldnt stop people from going to WI and IN. So why further decimate IL businesses, when IL has shown improvement.

[StrangeSox]

Because pandemics can grow exponentially and if you're sitting at somewhere between 500-1000 and you don't have good systems to isolate all those cases and their contacts, that can quickly become 1000-5000 or more. Unless you can get this under control and keep it under control, businesses will be hurt. People will be hurt. 

There isn't a good answer here. Because of widespread political failures, we are left with only bad options. The common theme that I think we agree on is the complete and continued failure at the federal level. But I don't want to watch Illinois join the "massive outbreak" states like we're seeing across the South and West right now.

A whole slew of European and Asian countries have been able to safely open after lockdowns because they have functional national governments that took the appropriate measures and enough citizens who actually care about each other and their community rather than pure selfishness. Unfortunately, we do not have that here, and we failed to get this under control. We're paying the price for that now.

Edited July 8, 2020 by StrangeSox

[Balta1701]

17 minutes ago, Soxbadger said:

I guess we just have a different view. Unless the entire US follows the same path, I think it was unrealistic to believe that IL could ever get it under 500 per day consistently. I think  a reasonable goal is somewhere between 500-1000. With the current restrictions in place in IL, I think that its enough for IL have some benefits.

Again this is all based on the people of Illinois acting responsible. Given the current status of the US, I think IL earned their chance. Especially as even if IL was completely shut down, it wouldnt stop people from going to WI and IN. So why further decimate IL businesses, when IL has shown improvement.

Texas was at about 500 cases per day when it reopened. We crossed 10k yesterday (woo!). It took a whopping 2 months, that's doubling basically every 2 weeks. So I ask again, if it's about level, staying at 500 cases per day, with most things shut down, no bars, restaurants at 20% capacity...are you planning to stay at that level of closure forever? If not, what are you going to do to prevent it from spiking as things re-open? 

[StrangeSox]

The massive eviction wave getting underway is going to be absolutely brutal

 

 

 

so much unnecessary pain and suffering and death in this country

[Soxbadger]

28 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

Because pandemics can grow exponentially and if you're sitting at somewhere between 500-1000 and you don't have good systems to isolate all those cases and their contacts, that can quickly become 1000-5000 or more. Unless you can get this under control and keep it under control, businesses will be hurt. People will be hurt. 

There isn't a good answer here. Because of widespread political failures, we are left with only bad options. The common theme that I think we agree on is the complete and continued failure at the federal level. But I don't want to watch Illinois join the "massive outbreak" states like we're seeing across the South and West right now.

A whole slew of European and Asian countries have been able to safely open after lockdowns because they have functional national governments that took the appropriate measures and enough citizens who actually care about each other and their community rather than pure selfishness. Unfortunately, we do not have that here, and we failed to get this under control. We're paying the price for that now.

Do you really think phase 3 or phase 4 is going to make a difference?

Or is it whether people act reasonable. Some people arent going to follow the rules no matter what, they are going to parties, going to other states, not wearing masks etc.

There has to be some sort of incentive to work towards. Otherwise more people will act unreasonable. 

[StrangeSox]

I think allowing indoor dining and bars is monumentally stupid and harmful and we have pretty solid evidence of that, so yes P3 vs P4 does make a difference.

But at the same time, you're right. When there's no actual plan or path forward beyond magical thinking and "live with it" amid health and economic devastation, lots of people will just say "screw it." And if you focus on the individual failures, rather than the public policy failures and the propaganda failures that convince millions to not do the simple things like wear a mask, you'll miss the real culprits that have put us in this position.

[Balta1701]

10 minutes ago, Soxbadger said:

Do you really think phase 3 or phase 4 is going to make a difference?

Or is it whether people act reasonable. Some people arent going to follow the rules no matter what, they are going to parties, going to other states, not wearing masks etc.

There has to be some sort of incentive to work towards. Otherwise more people will act unreasonable. 

We literally have what, 30 states that are now examples of how every little step makes a difference? The governor of Texas explained it perfectly in a call with business leaders that was leaked in early May, when he outlined his plan for having the Coronavirus overrun the state. 

Quote

“Listen, the fact of the matter is pretty much every scientific and medical report shows that whenever you have a reopening—whether you want to call it a reopening of businesses or of just a reopening of society—in the aftermath of something like this, it actually will lead to an increase and spread. It’s almost ipso facto.

So, if you want more contact between people, you have to somehow increase what you're doing from here to keep cases from increasing. If you want more businesses open or more people in the office, and you're at a "level number of cases" for the past 2 weeks, then you need to increase what you're doing to fight the thing. So from here, you need to increase mask usage from what is happening right now, or you need to increase your ability to trace and isolate.

If you don't do that, then it's almost ipso facto. 

[StateStSports]

2 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

Yep, being really greedy will suffice. 

 

Also, Covid positives are rising in IL. Seems to be obvious phase 4 was premature. Rembember, positives and deaths are a lagging indicator. So this means that cases were on the rise even before going into phase 4. 

 

Let’s look at next few days. Could be a lag from holiday weekend and reporting. 

[Jack Parkman]

This could knock everyone straight back to phase 1. 

Edited July 8, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[Dick Allen]

Everyone who wants a test can have a test, and the tests are beautiful. That was almost 4 months ago, to say testing may be at capacity is fake news obviously.

[southsider2k5]