COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[Jose Abreu]

7 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

I only picked that fight because you picked a fight with "truth is in the middle". It's mincing words and sidetracks what is meant to be a productive conversation. 

No harm meant - more jest to give back what you were giving. 

As with everything, typing on a message board it's hard to convey what you're truly trying to get across and the tone of said message

All good. I understand why my posts might come across that way. It’s just a phrase I see tossed around in here a lot that bothers me, because it includes a bunch of implicit historical assumptions that I believe are wrong. And I say this as someone who used to believe it myself.

 

But again, I agree with your overall point and the specifics you laid out, and didn’t mean to pick on you specifically since I know it’s a common saying

[greg775]

4 hours ago, BrianAnderson said:

Hell i remember as late as mid-April when companies starting enforcing wearing a mask how I was like no way I'm doing that. By end of April i was mad at those who weren't. Now I'm appalled by people who don't. Simple simple simple. be kind. be empathetic. wear a mask. 

Amen brother. This is what I've been saying. When it was not a government rule here, I didn't wear a mask. I didn't like 'em and did not wear. When people started addressing me on this board I started to wear my mask more often even though I didn't like my goverrnment officials making demands, not working with the people here. Then with the government edict I wear it all the time and am shocked if somebody doesn't have theirs on. I am mentally ok with it because I started to listen to those who said wear one out of kindness toward my neightbor. As you said, be kind. Not bossy. That's the key.

Edited July 9, 2020 by greg775

[Balta1701]

2 hours ago, BrianAnderson said:

1 - each state/city should be able to work together and mandate what best suits their people. What's good for NY isn't necessarily true for North Dakota

2 - i think there should be age considerations given. If you're under 50 and don't have preexisting health conditions I think going back to work should be encouraged. get the economy up and running again

There's probably more, but that's my basic plan. No travel out of country, or out of region/state. Wear a mask. Get younger people back to work. Implement a plan to keep older poeple separated as best as possible. Maintain social distancing, etc. as we have to the best of our ability. 

2 key points.

"What New York needs to do isn't what everywhere else needs to do" was literally a column by one of the Republicans in the New York Times in April/May about why it was ok to be re-opening Florida and Texas. The problem turned out to be - that was wrong. Everywhere needed to kill it, everywhere needed to get it under control, and when some places listened to that advice, they created another nationwide spike. 

Second, on point 2, - That's exactly what Texas, Florida, Arizona did. Their death rates haven't hit New York levels yet, but these states are a disaster. Texas has had to shut down non-essential surgeries for the 2nd time already, which means hospitals are going bankrupt fighting this thing and people can't get needed medical care. Businesses are back to closing because people are coming into their offices sick and infecting other people even when they take precautions like masks. Restaurants and bars cannot be open, it spreads too easily and you can't wear a mask while eating or drinking. People can't work with this thing around. People get too sick and it spreads too easily, and yes it may not kill that many people below 50, but something like 5% still wind up hospitalized and there are an unknown number with large, long-term complications, including people who are never hospitalized. This thing is an absolute beast. You cannot send people out to get infected by this thing, the people who this didn't kill are still potentially going to be having major issues years down the road.

There will not be a US Economy until either:

1. We get case loads nationwide down so low that it is possible to test, trace, and isolate virtually every case, or:

2. We have a vaccine.

You can pretend things are open, but eventually your business community will revolt once their workers are all getting it, and half the population is going to check out anyways because we know our risk factors. 

[Balta1701]

This is the kind of thing I mean when I say that there is no functioning economy/society with this thing out of control. It affects everything. 

 

 

[StrangeSox]

Back over a thousand cases per day for the first time in over a month. What is our plan to control this and stop them from continuing to increase?

 

https://twitter.com/edyong209/status/1281289583674736642

[southsider2k5]

12 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

Back over a thousand cases per day for the first time in over a month. What is our plan to control this and stop them from continuing to increase?

 

https://twitter.com/edyong209/status/1281289583674736642

Quit testing?

[StateStSports]

2 hours ago, StrangeSox said:

Can't wait for my wife to have to go back to teaching in a building with over a thousand people in six weeks. Glad we've kept everything super safe and case counts in Illinois continue to drop!

 

Actually cases are going up. Positive rate is lower than yesterday at least. 

[StrangeSox]

16 minutes ago, StateStSports said:

Actually cases are going up. Positive rate is lower than yesterday at least. 

Yeah I was being sarcastic. Positive test rate lets you know when you're doing enough tests, something like 5% or below.

But if you're still seeing hundreds or now over a thousand cases a day and climbing, it doesn't tell you too much. We've been increasing the 3- and 7-day average case count for over two weeks now.

What is Illinois doing to contain the spread, right now, today? Because the metrics all lag by at best 7-14 days from the actual situation. If we wait to do anything to slow down the spread until we are hitting a couple thousand cases a day or more, we'll have guaranteed ourselves weeks of continuingly increasing counts after that point.

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, StrangeSox said:

Back over a thousand cases per day for the first time in over a month. What is our plan to control this and stop them from continuing to increase?

 

https://twitter.com/edyong209/status/1281289583674736642

Is this the wrong link?

[Balta1701]

Texas has had 10% of its recorded COVID-19 deaths in the past 3 days.

[he gone.]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

2 key points.

"What New York needs to do isn't what everywhere else needs to do" was literally a column by one of the Republicans in the New York Times in April/May about why it was ok to be re-opening Florida and Texas. The problem turned out to be - that was wrong. Everywhere needed to kill it, everywhere needed to get it under control, and when some places listened to that advice, they created another nationwide spike. 

Second, on point 2, - That's exactly what Texas, Florida, Arizona did. Their death rates haven't hit New York levels yet, but these states are a disaster. Texas has had to shut down non-essential surgeries for the 2nd time already, which means hospitals are going bankrupt fighting this thing and people can't get needed medical care. Businesses are back to closing because people are coming into their offices sick and infecting other people even when they take precautions like masks. Restaurants and bars cannot be open, it spreads too easily and you can't wear a mask while eating or drinking. People can't work with this thing around. People get too sick and it spreads too easily, and yes it may not kill that many people below 50, but something like 5% still wind up hospitalized and there are an unknown number with large, long-term complications, including people who are never hospitalized. This thing is an absolute beast. You cannot send people out to get infected by this thing, the people who this didn't kill are still potentially going to be having major issues years down the road.

There will not be a US Economy until either:

1. We get case loads nationwide down so low that it is possible to test, trace, and isolate virtually every case, or:

2. We have a vaccine.

You can pretend things are open, but eventually your business community will revolt once their workers are all getting it, and half the population is going to check out anyways because we know our risk factors. 

However if Texas opens, and a rule is in place where Texas residents can only be in Texas, then we don't have a spread outside of Texas. Then states learn from other states mistakes. If you want to open to other states & get your own economy back rolling then you better make decisions that align with health guidelines. Once you're cleared on a list, then you have the ability to fly and drive to the other states on the list. It incentives the local government to take accountability and make smart decisions. nobody would want to be AZ or TX on that list .. the last one to open their economy back up. 

unfortunately At this point, I forget where I read it, but some health official basically said the cats out of the bag - it has spread too far and too wide to get this thing under control again. And that's probably true. So to me, how do you fix that? Well you tell individuals no flying, no driving to other states, no anything. You live in whatever state you choose and you're there until that state has the okay. You have make the problem smaller, and to me the best way is restricting travel. It reduces the area you have to control. 

To the hospital point Going bankrupt just means more money in the pockets of bankruptcy lawyers and defaulting on debt. You restructure and come out the other end. It's not like these places cease to exist. It just reallocates the capital and ownership. Just like when United and American go BK sometime (if not again bailed out). They just took that grant from the government, pays those employees through October and then as soon as that dates expires they'll be fired and be on unemployment.. a different government payroll. These companies had and have no plan to keep employing employees. 

 

To the bars and restaurants -- i agree. I'm at a loss of how to help them and how to prop up 10% of the economy. Restaurants and bars are the lifeblood of local communities. Unfortunately this type of thing is really going to hurt the local business with the chains more apt to survive, or re-emerge via banking/loans. It's sad. It's also almost impossible to run a restaurant in a good economy. Margins are shit. I think outside dining is a real solution - but unfortunately is hot as hell lately and not really helping. I don't think we should be eating inside at all. But outside dining at 50% doesn't pay the rent really ... cant raise prices, nobody has jobs. No idea. It sucks. Buy gift cards to help those local places!! money in their pocket now, with no expenses out. Hope that you can use it in the future and it wasn't a donation. 

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

However if Texas opens, and a rule is in place where Texas residents can only be in Texas, then we don't have a spread outside of Texas. Then states learn from other states mistakes. If you want to open to other states & get your own economy back rolling then you better make decisions that align with health guidelines. Once you're cleared on a list, then you have the ability to fly and drive to the other states on the list. It incentives the local government to take accountability and make smart decisions. nobody would want to be AZ or TX on that list .. the last one to open their economy back up. 

unfortunately At this point, I forget where I read it, but some health official basically said the cats out of the bag - it has spread too far and too wide to get this thing under control again. And that's probably true. So to me, how do you fix that? Well you tell individuals no flying, no driving to other states, no anything. You live in whatever state you choose and you're there until that state has the okay. You have make the problem smaller, and to me the best way is restricting travel. It reduces the area you have to control. 

To the hospital point Going bankrupt just means more money in the pockets of bankruptcy lawyers and defaulting on debt. You restructure and come out the other end. It's not like these places cease to exist. It just reallocates the capital and ownership. Just like when United and American go BK sometime (if not again bailed out). They just took that grant from the government, pays those employees through October and then as soon as that dates expires they'll be fired and be on unemployment.. a different government payroll. These companies had and have no plan to keep employing employees. 

 

To the bars and restaurants -- i agree. I'm at a loss of how to help them and how to prop up 10% of the economy. Restaurants and bars are the lifeblood of local communities. Unfortunately this type of thing is really going to hurt the local business with the chains more apt to survive, or re-emerge via banking/loans. It's sad. It's also almost impossible to run a restaurant in a good economy. Margins are shit. I think outside dining is a real solution - but unfortunately is hot as hell lately and not really helping. I don't think we should be eating inside at all. But outside dining at 50% doesn't pay the rent really ... cant raise prices, nobody has jobs. No idea. It sucks. Buy gift cards to help those local places!! money in their pocket now, with no expenses out. Hope that you can use it in the future and it wasn't a donation. 

I'm waiting to see one that has learned. 

 

 

[he gone.]

7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I'm waiting to see one that has learned. 

 

 

Because incentives aren't in place. Follow the money. Always. 

When you broadcast to the US that you're open for business,, nobody has to wear a mask, come eat and drink inside! you're going to have swarms of people then travel and go do those things in your state. Thus creating a never ending cycle. Which we are in now. TX, FL, AZ all made a big to do about how they're returning to normal. As much as it sucks there's a lot of dumb people who dont believe science and math and think this is some kind of government hoax to take their power and freedom and financial stability away. 

Currently there's no incentive to keep your states businesses closed when others are open. You start turning into the bad guy. (Even though in reality youre the good guy). However in the plan above (which admittedly is hard to enforce) now you have the incentive in place that if guidelines are followed, then you can actually open up businesses normally. And then once you're on that list, you can start visiting the other states that are on said list. it creates an economic incentive. 

 

Testing + making the area you need to monitor smaller = solution. 

 

All a message board idea though - if it were that easy to execute it'd happen by now. These people in power aren't necessarily dumb, they're smart people that have a nearly impossible job to complete in a tough environment. 

[caulfield12]

How many National guard, active military and police would you need to actively shut down borders and highways?

How to monitor/enforce those not wearing masks without massive nationwide CCTV like China or UK?

How to create a nationwide green/yellow/red mobile app everyone would accept (privacy!) and follow for entering public spaces?

How to ramp up contact tracing when we have 10-15% of public health budgets and personnel required to actually do so?

How to effectively deal with outbreaks in rural areas?  Prisons?  Homeless/veteran communities?  Illegal or legal immigrants afraid to interact with hospitals or basically any government entity?

How to take care of all those long lines of people seeking food assistance, to prevent even more spread?

How to create local delivery/logistics systems that can scale up to the level of feeding everyone at home?

How to keep people from leaving home...we don’t have everyone living in apartment blocks with fences and gates to lock down...so there’s no realistic way to stop people from going out.

How to deal with the issue of those who are losing health insurance or don’t even have it, meaning they’re not going to get tested, and are even unlikely to seek treatment?

How to deal with implementing school safety policies with massive increased costs, but also massive budget shortfalls?
 

And how to get the 2/3’rds of the country to “reunite“ with the 1/3rd who are against masking, against vaccines (conspiracy!), against any abridgment of “freedoms” to suddenly become compliant when we’re increasingly nearing every man for himself territory...the inherent selfishness of our capitalist system pits everyone against each other, young vs. old, essential worker vs. those getting more than previously for sitting home, teachers vs. students vs. parent vs. daycares vs. employers, CEO’s and Top 1% vs. the middle class, white collar workers vs. disproportionately minority lower wage workers???   The system ends up with a survival of the fittest mentality, compared to countries like Australia/NZ, Germany, Denmark/Finland/Norway, Iceland, Canada, etc., that have much more equal or balanced societies.

So you’re either seeing success from authoritarian systems where citizens are forced to comply/cooperate (China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Singapore), more “obedient/collectivist” but democratic countries (Japan, South Korea) or the type of fair/equitable counties listed in the aforementioned paragraph.   The US just doesn’t fit into any of those three categories.

[Balta1701]

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2768351

This is just on hospitalized patients from Italy. Sample size is 143, so not terrible, some biases through it being people hospitalized but given that exception, the real number is probably within 10% of this. Patients studied 60 days after the onset of the illness, a large majority still experiencing symptoms 2 full months later. More than half had mulitple symptoms. 

Quote

 at the time of the evaluation, only 18 (12.6%) were completely free of any COVID-19–related symptom, while 32% had 1 or 2 symptoms and 55% had 3 or more. None of the patients had fever or any signs or symptoms of acute illness. Worsened quality of life was observed among 44.1% of patients. The Figure shows that a high proportion of individuals still reported fatigue (53.1%), dyspnea (43.4%), joint pain, (27.3%) and chest pain (21.7%).

 

[StrangeSox]

3 hours ago, BrianAnderson said:

Because incentives aren't in place. Follow the money. Always. 

When you broadcast to the US that you're open for business,, nobody has to wear a mask, come eat and drink inside! you're going to have swarms of people then travel and go do those things in your state. Thus creating a never ending cycle. Which we are in now. TX, FL, AZ all made a big to do about how they're returning to normal. As much as it sucks there's a lot of dumb people who dont believe science and math and think this is some kind of government hoax to take their power and freedom and financial stability away. 

Currently there's no incentive to keep your states businesses closed when others are open. You start turning into the bad guy. (Even though in reality youre the good guy). However in the plan above (which admittedly is hard to enforce) now you have the incentive in place that if guidelines are followed, then you can actually open up businesses normally. And then once you're on that list, you can start visiting the other states that are on said list. it creates an economic incentive. 

 

Testing + making the area you need to monitor smaller = solution. 

 

All a message board idea though - if it were that easy to execute it'd happen by now. These people in power aren't necessarily dumb, they're smart people that have a nearly impossible job to complete in a tough environment. 

Complete failure at the federal level, including both the executive and Congress, who just decided to take yet another vacation after doing nothing, is the key to all of this.

Federalism didn't mean we were domed; Germany is a federal system and they've done pretty well. But when our federal government completely failed to form coherent plans and strategies and to financially support the appropriate measures, we were doomed.

[southsideirish71]

12 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

It is sooooo true.  The government wants their poor kid baby sitters back so they can force people back to work.

I want an actual education for my kids.  Not a fucking once a week zoom with homework that lasts 30 minutes.  If this is more of the same in the fall.  Then there is zero point.  The same elderly teachers that are at risk to get covid and have secondary issues also have a non-existent grasp of how to use technology.  So this will be another round of "we are not ready for this".   Then more once a week zooms.  

Edited July 10, 2020 by southsideirish71

[spiderman]

On 7/6/2020 at 11:36 PM, Tony said:

You asked how the White House has failed. I laid out multiple ways, your response was citing “counter arguments” that revolves around agencies that have nothing to do with the White House. 

In terms of your request, I really don’t see that serving much of a purpose with you, at least until you start to dig your head out of the sand, and drop those water jugs you seem to want to carry for your Orange leader. 

Don’t ask the question if you don’t want a real response. 

Why so defensive? If you can't make a logical argument, that's ok, I get it, but hopefully I can help educate you vs. your last reply and you can walk away with more knowledge vs. your talking points which are a nice try at distraction, but not accurate. 

Both of my comments on testing/masks were both in reply to your comments and both are not accurate.

You took Trump's on testing to imply that he's directing his government to do less testing. Is that accurate? If so, can you explain why literally everyone in the involved has publicly stated that they have never been directed to do so? Can you explain why we just tested 750K people on 7/9?  Not a good argument.

Even Fauci doesn't want a federal government mandate on masks. He prefers state/local mandates. How would you actually enforce a national mandate on masks? Again, as mentioned, there are federal guidelines. More states are adding additional regulations on masks. 

[spiderman]

On 7/8/2020 at 9:17 AM, Tony said:

It was asked a few days ago “How has the White House handled this poorly?” 
 

I submit exhibit 1,367 to the court:

 

Oliver Darcy is your exhibit 1367? What's next? Don Lemon's logic?

[spiderman]

5 hours ago, StrangeSox said:

Back over a thousand cases per day for the first time in over a month. What is our plan to control this and stop them from continuing to increase?

 

https://twitter.com/edyong209/status/1281289583674736642

Percentage of positive cases remains under 3% in the state. Illinois tested over 36K people today. As the state re-opens, there will be more cases.

[Quin]

So, for what it's worth, my coworker and her entire family had COVID.

Now her father, who works in a hospital, has tested positive again. This time it's more severe.

[The Beast]

8 hours ago, StrangeSox said:

Can't wait for my wife to have to go back to teaching in a building with over a thousand people in six weeks. Glad we've kept everything super safe and case counts in Illinois continue to drop!

 

Same except add in the word pregnant before wife.

[southsideirish71]

11 minutes ago, Quin said:

So, for what it's worth, my coworker and her entire family had COVID.

 Now her father, who works in a hospital, has tested positive again. This time it's more severe.

Its real simple.  If antibodies do not have a long term cycle of protection and people can get this more than once.  Then all of this is for naught. A vaccine will not work then.  

[caulfield12]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/09/us/california-coronavirus-imperial-county/index.html
Unbelievable at this point that an entire CA hospital could spin out of control after all this time...

GOP governor: I think President Trump is confused

President Trump slammed the CDC's guidance for reopening schools, but Maryland's GOP Gov. Larry Hogan says the guidance was helpful and he believes Trump is confused about it.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/07/09/governor-larry-hogan-trump-confused-newday-vpx.cnn

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/09/us/us-coronavirus-summer-reopening/index.html

US Could Face a Double Whammy, Experts Say 

 

Stop saying what should happen. Figure out how.

And it's also why Trump's demand that schools open is so craven. Of course the schools should open. Everyone wants the schools to open.

It's how to open up without spreading the disease that no one can seem to figure out.

One very simple thing would be to wear a face mask in public to shut down people like this Ohio lawmaker who thinks nothing is wrong.

If the schools open, as Trump demands, and teachers and other adults who work there get sick, they'll close again. Just like the states that must now pause reopening.

Yesterday, it was a summer camp in Arkansas that closed after people started testing positive. Now Nashville says it's delaying the opening of its school year -- which had been planned for August 4 -- until Labor Day at least. 

Presidents and policymakers need to play chess: Think ahead, identify possible outcomes and be ready for contingencies.

That's hard to do when you don't believe there's a problem.

Edited July 10, 2020 by caulfield12

[The Beast]

6 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/09/us/california-coronavirus-imperial-county/index.html
Unbelievable at this point that an entire CA hospital could spin out of control after all this time...

GOP governor: I think President Trump is confused

President Trump slammed the CDC's guidance for reopening schools, but Maryland's GOP Gov. Larry Hogan says the guidance was helpful and he believes Trump is confused about it.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/07/09/governor-larry-hogan-trump-confused-newday-vpx.cnn

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/09/us/us-coronavirus-summer-reopening/index.html

US Could Face a Double Whammy, Experts Say 

 

Hogan could be the face of the post-Trump Republican Party.