COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[southsideirish71]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Get it sloping back down. 

its going up right now. If cases are increasing and positive rate is increasing, you don’t have control. And if you have it going up now, where is it in a month?

Figure out a national strategy for contact tracing. That would have helped too.

You cant contract trace when its community spread.  Too many people.  Contract tracing works when you have a very small number of cases.   

[greg775]

3 hours ago, The Beast said:

Why bother with keeping basketball and football? Call them all.

 

What did they do now?

Cause the ADs and commishes say the Power Five schools will be decimated without football and bball money. Keep trying for them til the last second. Now does that open 'em up for Title Nine lawsuits by the other sports? Probably. But we're allegedly talking survival of athletic departments here.

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, southsideirish71 said:

You cant contract trace when its community spread.  Too many people.  Contract tracing works when you have a very small number of cases.   

You have just answered your previous question.

[southsideirish71]

40 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

I'm sorry that the country as a whole was far too irresponsible and that our federal leadership was far too incompetent and incapable to get this thing to a manageable level to the point we could safely reopen schools, but that's where we are.

Other countries have managed it and are able to safely hold in person schools. We failed to make that a priority and instead rushed to reopen unnecessary social activities like drinking in bars.

And you're right that most of not all schools are unprepared for what's very likely to happen, which is outbreaks causing shutdowns of districts or individual schools.

It sucks and it's shitty for everyone. Be very, very angry at the people in charge who have completely failed us. They put school administration in an impossible situation.

With things the way they are now, growing ppe shortages and not nearly enough testing capacity to regularly test staff and students along with robust contact tracing, there isn't really a safe way to open up the schools. Many will anyway, but I'd be shocked if we made it to October without a bunch of shutdowns.

What is this chart going to look like in mid August? What are we doing to stop and control the spread this time?

Well you have me sold.  It's not safe.  However the online education is a waste of time.  So let's get the furlough notices out in August then.  Maybe we can get a stimulus for the education workers impacted by this economic slowdown.  You know it sucks for them however the safety of everyone overweighs the economic impacts to individuals.  People are more important than money I keep hearing.  So just like the small business workers and others who have had to bite the bullet I guess its just another industry decimated by the virus.  I hope a vaccine comes out quickly.  

[greg775]

52 minutes ago, southsideirish71 said:

 

 

52 minutes ago, southsideirish71 said:

So it's really about waiting for a vaccine.  The goalposts have moved all over the place with this.  Everyone fucking knew the minute this would open up a bit that cases would increase.  The original reason to lockdown was to keep from overloading the hospitals and due to not having enough ppe and ventilators.  Now we cant possibly open up a school because the virus is still around.   And its not the teachers fault.  Okay.  I buy that.  How about this take.  If you are not going to provide proper education, then shut the schools down.  You can do it until there is a vaccine.  And while you do that, furlough the teachers, support staff, and building workers.  just like other businesses that shutter up.  This sham of online education is not acceptable.  It's a glorified checklist to punt kids to the next year, its eyewash at best.  Its busy work to make it seem like something is happening.  Unfortunately nothing is happening.  Its just bullshit.  And there has been plenty of time to address this.  And just pointing at the orange man and getting upset at his incompetence is not enough.  Plenty of blame to go around.  My wife works in a school district.  There has been zero, zero talk of what happens if the schools cant open up.  They are having their first call in a week to go over the concerns of the teachers.  It is going to be exactly the same as the spring.  That was a quick thing that occured in March.  In August its not.  There has been time to plan.  And nothing has been done.  Punting the kids to the next year while everyone waits for a vaccine is not going to work.  This is not a glorified babysitting service.  Its education.  If that isnt happening then whats the point.     

This is a great post when you think about it. He's right. The online option is a SHAM so he's right. Furlough everybody and it's "see you for summer school 2021." Just have the kids hang out a year and if the parents can get them to do it, make them read a book a week. If they can prove they did it, pass them the entire grade. If parents want to lie about the book a week, let them. Great post. Furlough everybody; see u in May of 2021.

Edited July 13, 2020 by greg775

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, southsideirish71 said:

So it's really about waiting for a vaccine.  The goalposts have moved all over the place with this.  Everyone fucking knew the minute this would open up a bit that cases would increase.  The original reason to lockdown was to keep from overloading the hospitals and due to not having enough ppe and ventilators.  Now we cant possibly open up a school because the virus is still around.   And its not the teachers fault.  Okay.  I buy that.  How about this take.  If you are not going to provide proper education, then shut the schools down.  You can do it until there is a vaccine.  And while you do that, furlough the teachers, support staff, and building workers.  just like other businesses that shutter up.  This sham of online education is not acceptable.  It's a glorified checklist to punt kids to the next year, its eyewash at best.  Its busy work to make it seem like something is happening.  Unfortunately nothing is happening.  Its just bullshit.  And there has been plenty of time to address this.  And just pointing at the orange man and getting upset at his incompetence is not enough.  Plenty of blame to go around.  My wife works in a school district.  There has been zero, zero talk of what happens if the schools cant open up.  They are having their first call in a week to go over the concerns of the teachers.  It is going to be exactly the same as the spring.  That was a quick thing that occured in March.  In August its not.  There has been time to plan.  And nothing has been done.  Punting the kids to the next year while everyone waits for a vaccine is not going to work.  This is not a glorified babysitting service.  Its education.  If that isnt happening then whats the point.     

1. Have you noticed how the hospitals in all the hotspots are overloaded again and reusing PPE again?

2. you are correct, nothing has been done. There is a reason why. I deal a little in disaster response science. One of the lessons there is that someone needs to make decisions at the top, even if they are wrong they are better than paralysis, because when decisions aren’t made at the top, no one else can do their job m. The US is broken at the top. There are no thought through guidelines, No answer for what to do when there is an outbreak, there are no extra funds, people haven’t been buying or manufacturing the equipment you would need to keep those buildings safe. Even if something was ordered incorrectly, at least some things might have been done right. A school district on its own can’t make these decisions, especially if they have no extra funds.

When no one is in charge, it creates paralysis at every level. That is where we are right now.

[Dick Allen]

33 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Get it sloping back down. 

its going up right now. If cases are increasing and positive rate is increasing, you don’t have control. And if you have it going up now, where is it in a month?

Figure out a national strategy for contact tracing. That would have helped too.

First thing, make everyone wear a mask. 

[southsideirish71]

2 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

First thing, make everyone wear a mask. 

Well thats mandated here in Illinois.  I see jackasses going into stores without it.  The stores do not object to them violating the rule.  They let them shop and then process them without penalty.   They should either escort them out of the store or refuse to engage in business with them.   

[StrangeSox]

34 minutes ago, southsideirish71 said:

Well you have me sold.  It's not safe.  However the online education is a waste of time.  So let's get the furlough notices out in August then.  Maybe we can get a stimulus for the education workers impacted by this economic slowdown.  You know it sucks for them however the safety of everyone overweighs the economic impacts to individuals.  People are more important than money I keep hearing.  So just like the small business workers and others who have had to bite the bullet I guess its just another industry decimated by the virus.  I hope a vaccine comes out quickly.  

I'm not sure the point of vindictive action against teachers.

 

E: but we should absolutely be paying everyone to stay home if they can and can't work from home. Online education offers at least something, even if it isn't as good as in person though.

Edited July 13, 2020 by StrangeSox

[StrangeSox]

40 minutes ago, southsideirish71 said:

You cant contract trace when its community spread.  Too many people.  Contract tracing works when you have a very small number of cases.   

So we can't safely open schools and shouldn't have rushed to open everything else. 

That's why we are where we are right now. Systemic failures. 

[The Beast]

39 minutes ago, greg775 said:

Cause the ADs and commishes say the Power Five schools will be decimated without football and bball money. Keep trying for them til the last second. Now does that open 'em up for Title Nine lawsuits by the other sports? Probably. But we're allegedly talking survival of athletic departments here.

Decimate them then. They’ll survive.

[southsideirish71]

Just now, StrangeSox said:

I'm not sure the point of vindictive action against teachers.

Online teaching is a waste.  It is completely worthless in its current state.  So whats the point of paying employees to do what exactly.  There are no tests.  There are no grades.  Zooms are limited.  If all of a sudden I couldn't do my job in my current capacity do you think my employer would just allow me to collect money for long periods of time if my productivity was to drop.  

[southsideirish71]

8 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

I'm not sure the point of vindictive action against teachers.

  

E: but we should absolutely be paying everyone to stay home if they can and can't work from home. Online education offers at least something, even if it isn't as good as in person though.

It offers nothing.  No grades.  No tests.  20 minutes of homework a day.  Minimal contact with your teacher over a zoom.  Just about every kid was sleeping most of the day while this was going on.  Playing video games and getting perfect scores.  The classes were cheating constantly.  Its a joke.  

 

Previously:  Two hours or more a day of homework.  Tests and quizzes validated knowledge.  Teachers were interactive with students.  Kids couldnt cheat wholesale because the teacher is in the room.  

Edited July 13, 2020 by southsideirish71

[StrangeSox]

My work is for people so maybe!

Some online is okay, some isn't.

But we should just be supplementing or paying everyone's salaries to start home if they can't safely work. PPP was supposed to do that, but it is ending eventually and didn't work all that well. Toss it on the "massive federal failure making everything worse for us all" puke, I guess.

[StrangeSox]

2 minutes ago, southsideirish71 said:

It offers nothing.  No grades.  No tests.  20 minutes of homework a day.  Minimal contact with your teacher over a zoom.  Just about every kid was sleeping most of the day while this was going on.  Playing video games and getting perfect scores.  The classes were cheating constantly.  Its a joke.  

I'm not sure the point of education is grades and tests, ultimately. But we can set educational philosophy differences aside.

Hopefully your kids make the most out of whatever mix they are offered over the coming year. Having a dedicated parent the clearly values education puts them in the best position to succeed in a tough situation.

I get that it sucks and you're not getting what you planned and hoped for your kids. I'm not either. That doesn't change the reality we face. The virus doesn't care. Countless leadership failures gave us the only choices we have right now: online education or likely unsafe in person.

[The Beast]

8 hours ago, southsideirish71 said:

Online teaching is a waste.  It is completely worthless in its current state.  So whats the point of paying employees to do what exactly.  There are no tests.  There are no grades.  Zooms are limited.  If all of a sudden I couldn't do my job in my current capacity do you think my employer would just allow me to collect money for long periods of time if my productivity was to drop.  

What would you say if they did three days of instruction in school and two days of learning from home? Currently my wife’s district is proposing class for last names A-M, then N-Z, then online on Wednesday, last names A-M and then N-Z. What do you think about that? The stupid part about this, they told the parents but haven’t told the staff yet. That makes no sense whatsoever. It also sucks they haven't released plans for many districts yet and we are almost halfway through July.

Also, whose responsibility is it to provide  PPE and thermometers? The state? Should federal funds be used or state funds? What should happen if there’s and increase in cases and it isn’t sustainable, do we keep classes in school or what would you propose? You seem thoughtful and have a wife who is a teacher so I thought I would ask.

Edited July 13, 2020 by The Beast

[Balta1701]

24 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

First thing, make everyone wear a mask. 

FWIW, Louisiana is now a case study on this. They announced a statewide mask mandate on June 13, with the normal exceptions (eating, outside on your own,  no enforcement in churches, etc). They were at about 500 cases per day at the time but starting to see a few spikes, today they shut down bars and a bunch of other things because they’re back to 2000 cases per day.

Masks help, they slow it, but they are not a cure-all. Thus far we have basically zero examples of anywhere on earth getting this under control without a shutdown, and we are back to “need to get this under control” again.

[Quin]

1 hour ago, greg775 said:

Cause the ADs and commishes say the Power Five schools will be decimated without football and bball money. Keep trying for them til the last second. Now does that open 'em up for Title Nine lawsuits by the other sports? Probably. But we're allegedly talking survival of athletic departments here.

The world will continue to spin without sacrificing Kansas basketball players and Alabama football players on the altar of entertainment.

[southsideirish71]

21 minutes ago, The Beast said:

What would you say if they did three days of instruction in school and two days of learning from home? Currently my wire’s district is proposing class for last names A-M, then N-Z, then online on Wednesday, last names A-M and then N-Z. What do you think about that?

Also, whose responsibility is it to provide  PPE and thermometers? The state? Should federal funds be used or state funds? What should happen if there’s and increase in cases and it isn’t sustainable, do we keep classes in school or what would you propose? You seem thoughtful and have a wife who is a teacher so I thought I would ask.

I could live with a hybrid approach.   3 and 2 would work for me.  Online only would not.  The kids need to be taught in person and tested.  Tests in a classroom.  My son is a very high level academic kid who is trying to land academic scholarships that will impact his long term future.  Going to a P/F system and allowing everyone to cheat hurts his chances of differentiating his talents from others. This could impact where he goes to school and his career chances down the road. 

Federal and State funds should be provided for both PPE and other material.  This should of been done already. HIPAA and other lovely privacy laws are going to be at odds with reality.  You test positive, sure contact trace and part of that is that you notify the school and that person goes away for 2 weeks.  Now I already know that we will have a mix this fall.  Some parents will keep Junior home when he sneezes, says his tummy feels bad, or just wants to stay home to keep mom company.  Others will push 3 pills down their kids throat and tell them they are not sick and to go to school.  I think at the HS level its simple.  Everyone wears masks.  If your kid doesnt want to wear a mask, great homeschool is for you.  You get sick, you contact trace and everyone involved gets tested.  When people get sick they get processed out until they are cleared.  There is no penalty for staying away with a covid positive hit.  Its part of the price we pay to open up.  Shuttering for the year is a better option then just moving to online only. 

Edited July 13, 2020 by southsideirish71

[caulfield12]

Nobody has quite explained where we will get the personnel or continuous funding for massive contract tracing... or pool testing, for that matter. 

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/13/politics/donald-trump-florida-coronavirus-reopening/index.html

 

Edited July 13, 2020 by caulfield12

[Dick Allen]

8 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

FWIW, Louisiana is now a case study on this. They announced a statewide mask mandate on June 13, with the normal exceptions (eating, outside on your own,  no enforcement in churches, etc). They were at about 500 cases per day at the time but starting to see a few spikes, today they shut down bars and a bunch of other things because they’re back to 2000 cases per day.

Masks help, they slow it, but they are not a cure-all. Thus far we have basically zero examples of anywhere on earth getting this under control without a shutdown, and we are back to “need to get this under control” again.

A mandate and actually making people wear them are 2 different things. There has been a mandate in IL for months. A couple of weeks ago, when I went out, I counted how many people wore masks out the the first 20 people I saw. The high for the week was 7. The low was 4. It was pretty steady at around 25%. 

[NWINFan]

15 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

The WH is going on a crusade to trash Fauci. 
 

And probably will still say everything is under control and the virus will go away once it gets warmer.

The White House is desperate. Things are going wrong, and they are looking for a scapegoat. Meanwhile, not much else is being done. I saw a DeVos interview. She sounded like the complete idiot that she is.

[he gone.]

At some point we need to be honest with ourselves. a) there will not be college sports. they make their money on football through attendance, not so much through TV contracts. call a spade a spade, they don't care about the kids health at all. They care about money. if they can't make money they'll then spin it towards how "health is their first priority" and protecting the kids. But in no way are they are going to spend the money it takes to run a season to then take a loss. Flip side, if they had more massive TV contracts they would be playing. i think 75% of revenue or something like that comes from attendance at the college level though. 

Likewise, we are now in herd immunity mode. No matter what any political affiliation or network tells you, the cat is out of the bag. You can't walk this back. You're not going to send people into a 6 week shut down like we did in the past. Also you're not going to force people who don't want to wear a mask to wear one. All the data is out there, the cases are on the rise, etc. Science and math are winning - but what percentage of non-mask wearers have been converted? I'd have to guess less than 10-25%? Sadly it is what it is. I'm not sure what it is about human nature - but this is also why we'll never not be in a war of some sort around the world. We had one enemy - covid ... and the human race couldn't even rally around that. everything is divisive. 

[StrangeSox]

Naturally achieved herd immunity will result in probably millions dead, tens of millions hospitalized, tens of millions permanently affected, and a smoking creator of an economy for years to come. We don't know how long naturally-acquired immune responses remain protective against reinfection. We don't really know what the long-term impacts of even mild cases are.

[illinilaw08]

10 minutes ago, Tony said:

Well said, especially the second part. It sucks and people have a really hard time accepting a frustrating or unfulfilling answer....but there really isn’t a good one right now. 

To me, it seems like you have to start over.  Lock down again to get the current wave under control, pass a giant round of stimulus that allows non-essential workers to stay home and non-essential businesses to stay afloat while shuttered, and this time, instead of debating opening the economy vs. fighting the virus, use that time to set up the procedures other countries implemented to stay on top of the virus.

Right now, in CO, test results are taking 5+ business days to come back (and I think that's consistent around the country) - you can't effectively contact trace if you have to wait 5 or more days to get your results.  Once virus numbers are down to manageable levels, if the infrastructure is in place, you have a chance to trace the virus in the community and limit spread.

There's no political will to do that, so it's never going to happen.  But the above seems to be the only real option...