COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[StrangeSox]

1 minute ago, Tony said:

I think he agrees (at least I do) with what you’re saying...this isn’t the right path to go down.....but it’s where we are now. So many people have just given up on wearing a mask, taking this seriously. And there is no getting those people back. Another full lockdown isn’t happening. Toothpaste is already out of the tube for way too many. 

Right, just stating the likely consequences and the unknowns. Don't worry, our federal leadership is busy attacking public health experts, so we're definitely going to get this back under control.

 

Realistically we're looking at severe and long-term economic damage with COVID becoming endemic in the US. Our country will remain a pariah state that we won't even be able to flee from.

[southsider2k5]

11 hours ago, Quin said:

The world will continue to spin without sacrificing Kansas basketball players and Alabama football players on the altar of entertainment.

Here's the part I don't get.  Why are we pretending that these kids will be alone in their pursuits?  How many coaches are we talking about? Support staff?  Teachers?  Speaking of Kansas and Alabama, how about how many reporters follow them around?  It isn't JUST The kids on these teams.  There are a TON of at risk people whose livings are hooked those kids, and will be exposed to death on a regular basis.  I mean Betsey Devos might be fine with 15,000 dead kids because it is only 0.02%, but how many at risk football coaches are we talking about?  Nick Saben is 68 years old, which puts him in the in the 2-4% fatality bracket.  Bill Self is 57, putting him around the 1% mortality bracket. Bill Snyder is 77, putting him around an 8% mortality rate for his age bracket.

[bmags]

There are so many tools that have yet to be deployed especially at the national level. To say that we "can't" do anything is false.

One - many reasons people on't wear masks in certain places is lack of uniformity. It is in many places an individual business decision, or a county decision or a state decision. If you don't have to wear a mask in the places you normally go to, then you are told you have to wear a mask here - you may get mad. The other places don't require masks, why are they? If you have one rule it will work. To say people haven't been convinced is asinine, how many more people wear masks compared to April? But you know what? It's still confusing! I don't wear masks on walks. But the state of Illinois and Chicago tweets are showing pictures of people on walks outside saying "wear a mask when you leave". There has been a huge failure to communicate best practices because there is no national policy. That's confusing, and when people are confused they will just fall back to what they are used to.

Two - We actually are in a better place to fight this in March. Remember in March when we looked at who was getting infected by age group in the US compared to South Korea and realized we weren't picking up any of the 20-50 cases who undoubtedly had it but could not get tested? We are picking that up now.

What we don't have despite it being much more the key to success in countries that controlled this, equal to masks and mores than lockdowns, is quarantining. We don't provide resources or guidance on quarantining, and we end up destroying entire neighborhoods in the process.

Saying we are on the path to herd immunity is stupid, because we aren't. People on their own in the outbreak zones are going out less. Not all of them, but less. That's a fast way to economic ruin.

[southsider2k5]

5 minutes ago, bmags said:

There are so many tools that have yet to be deployed especially at the national level. To say that we "can't" do anything is false.

One - many reasons people on't wear masks in certain places is lack of uniformity. It is in many places an individual business decision, or a county decision or a state decision. If you don't have to wear a mask in the places you normally go to, then you are told you have to wear a mask here - you may get mad. The other places don't require masks, why are they? If you have one rule it will work. To say people haven't been convinced is asinine, how many more people wear masks compared to April? But you know what? It's still confusing! I don't wear masks on walks. But the state of Illinois and Chicago tweets are showing pictures of people on walks outside saying "wear a mask when you leave". There has been a huge failure to communicate best practices because there is no national policy. That's confusing, and when people are confused they will just fall back to what they are used to.

Two - We actually are in a better place to fight this in March. Remember in March when we looked at who was getting infected by age group in the US compared to South Korea and realized we weren't picking up any of the 20-50 cases who undoubtedly had it but could not get tested? We are picking that up now.

What we don't have despite it being much more the key to success in countries that controlled this, equal to masks and mores than lockdowns, is quarantining. We don't provide resources or guidance on quarantining, and we end up destroying entire neighborhoods in the process.

Saying we are on the path to herd immunity is stupid, because we aren't. People on their own in the outbreak zones are going out less. Not all of them, but less. That's a fast way to economic ruin.

Yeah, we are somewhere between 6-10% of the country who has had this virus at one point, and the fun part is we don't even KNOW if the anti-bodies last which could literally mean herd immunity is impossible.

[he gone.]

23 minutes ago, Tony said:

I think he agrees (at least I do) with what you’re saying...this isn’t the right path to go down.....but it’s where we are now. So many people have just given up on wearing a mask, taking this seriously. And there is no getting those people back. Another full lockdown isn’t happening. Toothpaste is already out of the tube for way too many. 

Oh i agree. 

 just looking at it realistically we're like herding cats. I'd like to think my family is reasonable and educated.. In my immediate family nobody agrees on Covid. My dad doesn't like to wear a mask .... I yell at him saying HOOWWWW??!!. You're the one I am trying to protect. If i get it, i likely survive no problem. He's 67, my mom is 65 with diabetes .... yet somehow, they won't wear one. On the other hand my brother hasn't left the house in 4 months. He has everything delivered and wipe it down with disinfecting spray. I wear a mask when i go to the stores, but basically try and use common sense. I've gone out to eat, but will not do the indoor eating, only outdoors. Basically my point is that i've had many conversations with my parents and siblings - and in depth ones. citing studies and numbers, etc. and if I can't even get my family to come to an agreement, then good luck getting people who are not your family and friends to all come together under one umbrella. 

That's just my immediate family. The whole thing is do divisive and not sure why. But I'm sure you all have families that are in the same boat. Or have friends that you disagree with. And that's just the way it is unfortunately.  But you're not going to get cooperation again on a mass level, it's just not going to happen. you can look at florida or texas, etc. and you're just not going to get the cooperation. The numbers explode and yet, they keep going on without masks. Now if you try and tell them to stay home like the first go-round with their businesses and jobs/life going to the wayside? good luck. Plus now this thing is so far wide spread. 

Unfortunately this is life until a vaccine. 

[greg775]

12 hours ago, southsideirish71 said:

Well thats mandated here in Illinois.  I see jackasses going into stores without it.  The stores do not object to them violating the rule.  They let them shop and then process them without penalty.   They should either escort them out of the store or refuse to engage in business with them.   

Our stores make you wear the mask, case closed. I wonder why the stores do not object. You can get a citation since it's mandatory indoors here now.

[greg775]

10 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

The whole thing is do divisive and not sure why.

I did read somewhere that the biggest form of transmission is when you have a long conversation with somebody who has the virus. A mask would seem critical in a 1-1 dialogue situation with a stranger or even a family member. You guys don't believe greg but the reason it is so divisive as you ask?? Because of the hypocracy. Whether you guys want to believe it or not, people watch the TV and internet and see BLM protests every single night still. And yet we can't bury a relative in front of more than 10 people when hundreds of thousands are rebelling in the streets every night. It's not fair and it's appalling. Di Blasio even said those protests are more important than anything else thus are allowed.

Not wearing a mask is one of the ways people can rebel in ANGER at that hypocracy. "You will not tell me to wear a mask." It is rebellion folks. Nobody followed my kill 'em with kindness mantra. all I see on Twitter is "wear the damn mask!" Anyhow, we have to wear our masks indoors here. It's the rule and stores enforce it big time.

Sorry, that's my answer to your question and whether you want to punch me for saying it, a lot of people feel this way. It's not much, but it is a form of rebellion against the government leaders in not wearing the mask. Freedom of choice.

[StrangeSox]

16 minutes ago, greg775 said:

Our stores make you wear the mask, case closed. I wonder why the stores do not object. You can get a citation since it's mandatory indoors here now.

Retail workers in stores with strict mask policies are taking tons of abuse from assholes. My friend who works at an outdoor recreation retail store gets yelled at at least once a day.

The best was the person who wore a mask but took it off to cough

 

e: it's not about "freedom of choice," it's about selfish refusal to consider anyone else at any point. That same logic could apply to drunk driving with no change.

Edited July 13, 2020 by StrangeSox

[southsider2k5]

26 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

Oh i agree. 

 just looking at it realistically we're like herding cats. I'd like to think my family is reasonable and educated.. In my immediate family nobody agrees on Covid. My dad doesn't like to wear a mask .... I yell at him saying HOOWWWW??!!. You're the one I am trying to protect. If i get it, i likely survive no problem. He's 67, my mom is 65 with diabetes .... yet somehow, they won't wear one. On the other hand my brother hasn't left the house in 4 months. He has everything delivered and wipe it down with disinfecting spray. I wear a mask when i go to the stores, but basically try and use common sense. I've gone out to eat, but will not do the indoor eating, only outdoors. Basically my point is that i've had many conversations with my parents and siblings - and in depth ones. citing studies and numbers, etc. and if I can't even get my family to come to an agreement, then good luck getting people who are not your family and friends to all come together under one umbrella. 

That's just my immediate family. The whole thing is do divisive and not sure why. But I'm sure you all have families that are in the same boat. Or have friends that you disagree with. And that's just the way it is unfortunately.  But you're not going to get cooperation again on a mass level, it's just not going to happen. you can look at florida or texas, etc. and you're just not going to get the cooperation. The numbers explode and yet, they keep going on without masks. Now if you try and tell them to stay home like the first go-round with their businesses and jobs/life going to the wayside? good luck. Plus now this thing is so far wide spread. 

Unfortunately this is life until a vaccine. 

It is divisive  because the executive leadership, who has the cult-like ear of about 30% of this country, is telling his people advise that is contra-science on a regular basis, and people are believing him over the actual scientists.

[StrangeSox]

(it's not just trump)

 

now extrapolate this to schools and

[Chisoxfn]

So semi serious question - if i wanted to move for a year+ to a country that doesn't have infections, is that largely feasible or no?  Curious - I want my kids getting a good education and want them doing so in a safe environment.  What does it matter where I live, I"ll just rent my house out and rent a place somewhere else and work remote.  

[southsider2k5]

Just now, StrangeSox said:

(it's not just trump)

 

now extrapolate this to schools and

Sure, but with his lead, it allows people to cover to deny science.  If both party's actually took the correct pro-science stance, non-compliance would drop a ton.

[southsider2k5]

4 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

So semi serious question - if i wanted to move for a year+ to a country that doesn't have infections, is that largely feasible or no?  Curious - I want my kids getting a good education and want them doing so in a safe environment.  What does it matter where I live, I"ll just rent my house out and rent a place somewhere else and work remote.  

As of right now, there aren't a whole lot of countries willing to take in Americans.

[Heads22]

28 minutes ago, greg775 said:

I did read somewhere that the biggest form of transmission is when you have a long conversation with somebody who has the virus. A mask would seem critical in a 1-1 dialogue situation with a stranger or even a family member. You guys don't believe greg but the reason it is so divisive as you ask?? Because of the hypocracy. Whether you guys want to believe it or not, people watch the TV and internet and see BLM protests every single night still. And yet we can't bury a relative in front of more than 10 people when hundreds of thousands are rebelling in the streets every night. It's not fair and it's appalling. Di Blasio even said those protests are more important than anything else thus are allowed.

Not wearing a mask is one of the ways people can rebel in ANGER at that hypocracy. "You will not tell me to wear a mask." It is rebellion folks. Nobody followed my kill 'em with kindness mantra. all I see on Twitter is "wear the damn mask!" Anyhow, we have to wear our masks indoors here. It's the rule and stores enforce it big time.

Sorry, that's my answer to your question and whether you want to punch me for saying it, a lot of people feel this way. It's not much, but it is a form of rebellion against the government leaders in not wearing the mask. Freedom of choice.

Hopefully, someday, you can overcome the oppression being faced by you and yours.

[StrangeSox]

19 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

So semi serious question - if i wanted to move for a year+ to a country that doesn't have infections, is that largely feasible or no?  Curious - I want my kids getting a good education and want them doing so in a safe environment.  What does it matter where I live, I"ll just rent my house out and rent a place somewhere else and work remote.  

Probably not possible:

Nobody wants people from The Plague States coming over

17 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Sure, but with his lead, it allows people to cover to deny science.  If both party's actually took the correct pro-science stance, non-compliance would drop a ton.

Anti-science, anti-academic, anti-critical thinking predates Trump. It laid the groundwork for him. Blame him, sure, but blame the decades of intellectual rot that gave us him as well.

 

 

 

Thoughts on Illinois/Chicago.

Murphy is the guy WGN has on every morning and has been on top of this since the start. Illinois is going to be in the "third wave" of states with exploding cases. Doesn't help that every state around us is trending worse even more rapidly. But hey, Chicago bars have to close at midnight instead of 2am!

 

 

 

 

 

 

and here's what the natural herd immunity path will lead us to:

Let's say that the severe-but-not-dead complications are only half as bad as listed. That's still 30m+ hospitalized with permanent organ damage.

Edited July 13, 2020 by StrangeSox

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

47 minutes ago, greg775 said:

I did read somewhere that the biggest form of transmission is when you have a long conversation with somebody who has the virus. A mask would seem critical in a 1-1 dialogue situation with a stranger or even a family member. You guys don't believe greg but the reason it is so divisive as you ask?? Because of the hypocracy. Whether you guys want to believe it or not, people watch the TV and internet and see BLM protests every single night still. And yet we can't bury a relative in front of more than 10 people when hundreds of thousands are rebelling in the streets every night. It's not fair and it's appalling. Di Blasio even said those protests are more important than anything else thus are allowed.

Not wearing a mask is one of the ways people can rebel in ANGER at that hypocracy. "You will not tell me to wear a mask." It is rebellion folks. Nobody followed my kill 'em with kindness mantra. all I see on Twitter is "wear the damn mask!" Anyhow, we have to wear our masks indoors here. It's the rule and stores enforce it big time.

Sorry, that's my answer to your question and whether you want to punch me for saying it, a lot of people feel this way. It's not much, but it is a form of rebellion against the government leaders in not wearing the mask. Freedom of choice.

Yes, this is essentially right.. 

[greg775]

2 hours ago, Heads22 said:

Hopefully, someday, you can overcome the oppression being faced by you and yours.

He asked a question why people feel this way. I gave a reason for it. I think government officials are mainly to blame.

It must be noted despite my friends' feelings which I pointed out, I wear my mask everywhere out of respect for people and have yet to see any incidents in stores/restaurants. We have a law you must wear a mask indoors so I do it and from what I can see most do it. I'm all for masks and the end of Covid spread.

[StrangeSox]

LA, San Diego announce full remote learning this fall.

 

Meanwhile, in OC:

 

[southsider2k5]

Just now, StrangeSox said:

LA, San Diego announce full remote learning this fall.

 

Meanwhile, in OC:

 

ONe of the Indy area school systems just announced this too.

[Chisoxfn]

3 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

LA, San Diego announce full remote learning this fall.

 

Meanwhile, in OC:

 

No district has actually followed any of OC's recommendations, but yeah - now you all maybe know why I made my comment around my options for going abroad - I'll gladly self quarantine for 14 days and stay there for the next 1YR+ until this whole situation resolves.  

[StrangeSox]

 

I think this is what he legitimately believes at this point. Pure magical thinking. The cases exist because we test for them. If we never tested for them and didn't know about them, they wouldn't exist. 

[shipps]

4 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

Yeah, we are somewhere between 6-10% of the country who has had this virus at one point, and the fun part is we don't even KNOW if the anti-bodies last which could literally mean herd immunity is impossible.

This is one of the most scary parts about the potential of all of this. It could be worst case scenario that we aren't going to ever get to herd immunity because immunity doesn't last long. And if immunity doesn't last long in nature I don't think they believe the vaccine will be very effective either. We could be dealing with this for years with no end in sight.   

[Balta1701]

6 minutes ago, shipps said:

This is one of the most scary parts about the potential of all of this. It could be worst case scenario that we aren't going to ever get to herd immunity because immunity doesn't last long. And if immunity doesn't last long in nature I don't think they believe the vaccine will be very effective either. We could be dealing with this for years with no end in sight.   

In that case there is still an option but we have to actually gear up and battle this thing.

1. Lockdowns and mask wearing, get down to a few hundred cases nationwide.

2. Aggressive contact tracing.

(same as the options being pushed previously).

3. Targeted vaccination campaigns. Hit areas where it is known to be circulating with a large campaign of vaccination. A couple months of immunity combined with the other measures is enough to shut it down in an area since many of the people who get it don’t actually spread it.

4. Set a goal of elimination. Maybe at first you are dealing with areas that have dozens of cases, maybe later you’re vaccinating cities because there were 5 reported cases. 

With leadership and money it could be done.

[StrangeSox]

5 minutes ago, shipps said:

This is one of the most scary parts about the potential of all of this. It could be worst case scenario that we aren't going to ever get to herd immunity because immunity doesn't last long. And if immunity doesn't last long in nature I don't think they believe the vaccine will be very effective either. We could be dealing with this for years with no end in sight.   

TWiV had Daniel Griffin on again for a clinical update. They discussed two of his cases with potential reinfection. It may also have been the same infection the whole time, it just went dormant/below detectable levels for a couple of months before coming roaring back. Wouldn't be able to tell for sure without being able to genetically sample the original March/April samples and the July samples from the same person. Not great either way, though.

https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-638/
 

 

However, my understanding is that vaccine-induced protective immunity (the kind that prevents you from getting sick in the first place) can be completely different from natural viral infection-induced responses. So even if the natural immunity is relatively short-lived, a vaccine could still very well work with a completely different biological mechanism and be longer-lasting.

But, yeah, it's still a possibility that natural immunity doesn't prevent reinfection at a later date. Plenty of real-world viruses to look at for examples. Or it could never go away completely. Some of those, too (think HIV). 

This is from the EU's CDC equivalent:

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/latest-evidence/immune-responses

 

Quote

 

Antibody-mediated immune response and protective immunity

The detection of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 does not indicate directly protective immunity and correlates of protection for COVID-19 have not yet been established.

Most persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 display an antibody response between day 10 and day 21 after infection. Detection in mild cases can take longer time (four weeks or more) and in a small number of cases antibodies (i.e., IgM, IgG) are not detected at all (at least during the studies’ time scale). Based on the currently available data, the IgM and IgG antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 develop between 6–15 days post disease onset [239-244]. The median seroconversion time for total antibodies, IgM and then IgG were day-11, day-12 and day-14 post symptom onset, respectively. The presence of antibodies was detected in <40% among patients within 1 week from onset, and rapidly increased to 100% (total antibodies), 94.3% (IgM) and 79.8% (IgG) from day-15 after onset [245].  

The longevity of the antibody response is still unknown, but it is known that antibodies to other coronaviruses wane over time (range: 12 – 52 weeks from the onset of symptoms) and homologous re-infections have been shown [246]. SARS-CoV-2 IgM and IgG antibody levels may remain over the course of seven weeks [247] or at least in 80% of the cases until day 49 [69]. In comparison, 90% and 50% of SARS-CoV-1 infected patients have been shown to maintain IgG antibodies for two and three years respectively [248]. In addition, it could be important to detect nasal IgA antibodies, as the serum IgA antibodies were not raised, but IgA persisted in the nasal mucosa one year post-infection for seasonal coronavirus 229E [249].

Longitudinal serological studies that follow patients’ immunity over an extended period of time would be required to study the duration of immunity [250].

Reinfections with all seasonal coronaviruses occur in nature, usually within three years [251]. However, the elapsed time between infections does not mean that the protective immunity lasted for the same period of time, because the reinfection was also dependent on re-exposure. Based on the minimum infection intervals and the observed dynamics of antibody waning, the study showed that the duration of protective immunity may last 6 to 12 months. These results were in line with a model of the protective immunity and reinfection dynamics of HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 in which the estimated period of protective immunity was 45 weeks [6]. Primary infection with SARS-CoV-2 was shown to protect rhesus macaques from subsequent challenge and casts doubts on reports that the re-positivity observed in discharged patients is due to re-infection [252].

 

 

The short answer on a whole lot of COVID, especially medium- and long-term stuff, is "we don't know; it hasn't been long enough to know." But this has gotta be the largest collective medical/research endeavor in human history. So many medical labs around the globe stopped all research except COVID-19. The experts and researchers remain pretty optimistic that there will be some sort of vaccine, hopefully within a year.

[StrangeSox]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

 

3. Targeted vaccination campaigns. Hit areas where it is known to be circulating with a large campaign of vaccination. A couple months of immunity combined with the other measures is enough to shut it down in an area since many of the people who get it don’t actually spread it.

 

 

We're facing serious national testing shortages/delays and now PPE shortages again. The Trump admin's federal purchasing for syringes we'll need for a vaccine are going through two small, untested suppliers.

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-07-08/trump-coronavirus-vaccine-strategy-syringe-providers

 

Edited July 13, 2020 by StrangeSox