COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[StrangeSox]

Seems likely that national data will be cooked, but we'll still get state level reports (which may also be cooked, e.g. Florida)

[Dick Allen]

Cutting out the CDC. 
 

They must be fake news.  I guess fudging numbers is the only play this administration  has left. For all the politicians that claim they love our country, it’s time for action even if it means you will get a stupid nickname from someone tweeting on the toilet.

[Two-Gun Pete]

42 minutes ago, bmags said:

This is the sound of me sighing just a little bit of relief.

 

I wouldn't spike the football just yet.

 

While it's nice to see a lower new case #, it's still a higher # than a week ago. I'll breathe a sigh of relief if the #s tomorrow look promising. 

[Two-Gun Pete]

1 minute ago, Dick Allen said:

Cutting out the CDC. 
 

They must be fake news.  I guess fudging numbers is the only play this administration  has left. For all the politicians that claim they love our country, it’s time for action even if it means you will get a stupid nickname from someone tweeting on the toilet.

Isn't the CDC part of the deep state? Isn't everything that isn't nice to the president part of a conspiracy?

 

(Getting those questions in BEFORE Greg reports it from his hours of watching fox "news.")

[Chisoxfn]

4 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I wouldn't spike the football just yet.

 

While it's nice to see a lower new case #, it's still a higher # than a week ago. I'll breathe a sigh of relief if the #s tomorrow look promising. 

I'm curious because my towns numbers hit about 50 cases per day but than the last two days have stropped substantively.  Curious to see if they keep holding at the lower levels (which were much closer to where things were trending for the first 3 months + of the pandemic vs. where they all of a sudden escalated to over the past week or so.  

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Chisoxfn said:

I'm curious because my towns numbers hit about 50 cases per day but than the last two days have stropped substantively.  Curious to see if they keep holding at the lower levels (which were much closer to where things were trending for the first 3 months + of the pandemic vs. where they all of a sudden escalated to over the past week or so.  

The last 2 days were weekend numbers. There are always fewer tests done on Saturday and Sunday, so there's fewer to report on Sunday-Monday (and sometimes Tuesday). We're at about 100 per cases per day on average, and the last 3 days we reported 40, 50, and 60, and we'll probably be back over 100 tomorrow in this county - the question is whether it spikes to something like 150 any time soon.

[bmags]

22 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

I'm curious because my towns numbers hit about 50 cases per day but than the last two days have stropped substantively.  Curious to see if they keep holding at the lower levels (which were much closer to where things were trending for the first 3 months + of the pandemic vs. where they all of a sudden escalated to over the past week or so.  

with it being like 2 weeks since the phase 2 really got out of control I wouldn't be surprised if some modification of behaviors changed around then. Economic indicators show it. Hopefully it turns out that way by you, and then the indoor lockdowns get things on track for august.

[turnin' two]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

This is the sound of me sighing just a little bit of relief.

 

Just wanted to say, thanks for continually doing this.

[Balta1701]

So here's Texas today with a new daily high in cases, coming off highs in positivity rate over the weekend, and hanging out near 100 deaths per day again.

 

For those wondering why they should care about this number - Texas instituted "soft" mask requirements about 3 weeks ago, starting late June, in most of their their major cities, and closed bars and reduced restaurants to 50% capacity at the same time. This week we will also be 2 weeks past the July 4 holiday and 2 weeks past a statewide indoor mask requirement, so this week and next week are likely a test of whether we need a harder lockdown to level this thing out.

Going up at 1000 cases a week would be progress, but not enough. This is a boost of about 700 cases from last tuesday, with still increasing positivity rates. 

[caulfield12]

3 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

So I wanted to give a reply to this yesterday but didn't have time.

1. There are a number of good quality papers out there saying that young people are much less likely to transmit this virus than adults/people in their late teens and early 20s. This is now well established and you can read it if you want. https://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/early/2020/07/08/peds.2020-004879. This is unusual for viruses - influenza and the common cold transmit just fine amongst kids. 

2. If it wasn't for point #1, schools would seem like the absolute worst possible place to be. Lots of talking, crowded rooms, limited ventilation, 8+ hours a day, it'd be like a restaurant for 8 hours. You'd otherwise flag that as the absolute highest risk place you can imagine.

3. There are some reasons to be skeptical about how far #1 really goes. 
a.) There are now multiple cases of transmission involving kids, maybe not driven by them but definitely involving them. A summer camp in Missouri had 82 kids infected. Texas has an outbreak in day care centers with 1300 cases recognized, 444 of which are children.
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/10/889718877/at-least-82-coronavirus-cases-linked-to-missouri-sleepaway-camp
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/06/health/texas-coronavirus-cases-child-care-facilities/index.html

b.) Children seemingly don't manifest the same symptoms as adults. Children often seem to report migranes and some other problems rather than the breathing issues we see in adults. As a consequence, it is likely that there is more spreading among children and between children than has been recognized previously. IF you have 2 sick people, one kid complaining about headaches and an adult complaining of respiratory distress, and testing is limited in your country, you are going to test the adult and not the child. Between fewer symptoms and changed symptoms, it is likely that we are under-testing and under-recognizing the disease amongst children specifically.

c.) In New York, it was recognized that a number of children get the virus, show weak to no symptoms, and then some percentage experience unexplained severe illnesses 1-3 months later (possibly more, we've only been dealing with this for 1-3 months). So while the virus may show limited symptoms at first, it may do damage or lay dormant in unexpected ways.

4. Given all that information, if you have spread in your area and you open schools you are almost certain to get some spread in schools. It may be focused among the teachers, but the teachers may be the ones who get it and infect significant numbers of young people. If you had to choose keeping schools closed or restaurants closed, you would clearly choose restaurants, bars, gyms, etc., as they are more likely to represent large spreading events. 

If you have limited spread in an area, ample testing, and available PPE, you could probably open schools with relative safety if you have developed appropriate plans to protect the teachers and students over time. However, literally no where in this country has all of those things, because the hot spots are so huge and the demand for PPE and testing in the hot spots is so high. 

5. Because we cannot keep the outside area safe, it is very difficult to expect that if you open a school it won't come in, and if it comes in you will have probably 10 days before you realize there's a problem even if there is a problem. Testing is too restricted, most of the spreading is done by people before symptoms develop, and any kids who do spread it have a good chance of failing to be recognized.

6. Furthermore, opening schools creates another problem. While COVID-19 may not spread easily among youth, influenza does, and if schools are open it will mean flu season is coming. Right now, much of the nation has no spare capacity left in hospitals for flu patients. Adding transmission of an additional virus would be particularly hazardous right now.

7. We could quibble on the numbers and the procedures, 5% positive tests or 3% or whatever, but opening grade schools would be possible if we had taken care of everything outside of schools, but opening schools depends on meeting standards we have failed to meet as a nation. Outside of a handful of communities and possibly New York state, right now most of the country is in no shape to do this. We chose to have bars and restaurants open for 1.5 months over having schools open in the fall. 

8. While the risks may be lower because of something about this virus, there are offsetting factors that are unknown, and one final point - even if most do not get this as bad as adults, some kids still get very sick, some kids would have long-lasting complications, and some kids would die. Generally speaking, that's not a good thing to ask of most families. 

9. Any University that thinks they can open their doors is asking for disaster. 

What’s the psychological and lifetime earnings cost to K-12 and university students for at least ANOTHER lost semester of online/distance education vs. 6 weeks of many businesses reopening at 25-50% of previous levels of business activity...?

Then all the knock-on consequences to parents (at least one) not being able to work due to having to stay at home with younger children to supervise...or risk the health of grandparents enlisting them as caregivers for months at a time?

[The Beast]

2 hours ago, StrangeSox said:

Seems likely that national data will be cooked, but we'll still get state level reports (which may also be cooked, e.g. Florida)

So John Hopkins’ and The NY Times data won’t be reliable if all of it is sent to Washington DC? That’s not transparent at all. What are they going to do, figure out demographics and associated medical conditions and figure out if COVID-19 really killed someone, and for cases just take a percentage of them each day? He’s a full of dog shit CEO used car salesman if this actually happens.

[greg775]

9 hours ago, StrangeSox said:

My wife's school district announced their plans last night.

Students will be in-person 5 days a week. They will be doing block-scheduled A/B days. So, a student will go to let's say their math, science, and spanish classes for double class periods on Day A, and the other classes on Day B. Other students would be flip-flopped. Oh but the school day is shortened to 830-1230, so it doesn't actually help parents with childcare at all anyway.

So ultimately, you still have every student in the building every day, and class sizes of 30+ every period.

We have five weeks to decide if she's going to resign over this.

Why shorten the day til 12:30? What do parents do if both people work? 12:30 is early to have the kids at home unsupervised. Maybe in this new normal we just pretend the kids will be OK without supervision and let them be home alone or go to a neighbors house in which one partner doesn't work cause of layoffs.

[greg775]

6 hours ago, Iwritecode said:

Do you scream at them because they make you wear a seat belt or else you will be ticketed? How about the fact that they make you wear a shirt and shoes into a store or else you can't shop there? Are they being bullies then?

Are you upset that they bullied people that smoke to smoke outdoors only? 

I didn't like their refusal to consult business owners for calm discussion, didn't consult regular people, wouldn't answer my emails. You don't have to puff your chest out say JUST DO IT MY WAY to be an effective leader. Disgusting behavior of power hungriness.

My barbershop is pristine. You should see how good the owner is. Different barbers work at different times. He doesn't want to get Covid, doesn't want to give it to anybody. But he was the enemy to our governor and local officials. I was and am disgusted at the leadership and will vote against all of them. I will add that despite my fury I've obeyed all rules and limited contact with people a LOT.

Edited July 14, 2020 by greg775

[Two-Gun Pete]

57 minutes ago, greg775 said:

I didn't like their refusal to consult business owners for calm discussion, didn't consult regular people, wouldn't answer my emails. You don't have to puff your chest out say JUST DO IT MY WAY to be an effective leader. Disgusting behavior of power hungriness.

My barbershop is pristine. You should see how good the owner is. Different barbers work at different times. He doesn't want to get Covid, doesn't want to give it to anybody. But he was the enemy to our governor and local officials. I was and am disgusted at the leadership and will vote against all of them. I will add that despite my fury I've obeyed all rules and limited contact with people a LOT.

Greg, based on your posts on this subject over the past few months, you of all people should have come to the realization that people need rules, or they'll act like fvkcing savages. [See: sh!thole red states that had MONTHS to prepare, then those same fvkcing mooks still render mask-wearing as political. Like texasastan and flori-duh. Or even you, a few months ago.]

 

What's more, your stupid supposition that Kansas' government deemed your barber "the enemy" is so stupid that it insults the stupid. Fvkcing think about it: The BARBER isn't the enemy. It's the ACTIVITY of being indoors, in close proximity, for anywhere from 5-15 minutes at a time, that could pose a threat to people. [IOW, by supplying the requisite viral load to pass on illnesses.] For fvkc's sake, turn off fvkcing fox "news," and pick up a book.

Edited July 15, 2020 by Two-Gun Pete

[Two-Gun Pete]

3 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

The last 2 days were weekend numbers. There are always fewer tests done on Saturday and Sunday, so there's fewer to report on Sunday-Monday (and sometimes Tuesday). 

This is exactly why I'm not as amped up about today's promising numbers. Wednesday could tell us more. If this week's new case curve follows last week's, we could see ~1,000 cases tomorrow. And then, upwards to ~1,500 or more by Friday. Which would be depressing. [I sincerely hope I'll be wrong, and everyone here can dunk on me for being overly-concerned.]

Given that Illinois is surrounded by states that haven't tested enough [relative to their population], and states that don't appear to have taken this seriously, I'm still concerned. We'd gone up to Lake Geneva 2 weekends ago to try to have lunch at Popeye's. When we got there, masks were EXTREMELY optional, and servers were leaving their noses uncovered. Of course, Popeye's was closed, due to COVID among their workers. If this is any indication of how the rest of Wisconsin or Indiana are approaching this thing, I worry about what this will do to us here.

As always, YMMV.

Edited July 15, 2020 by Two-Gun Pete

[The Beast]

2 hours ago, greg775 said:

I didn't like their refusal to consult business owners for calm discussion, didn't consult regular people, wouldn't answer my emails. You don't have to puff your chest out say JUST DO IT MY WAY to be an effective leader. Disgusting behavior of power hungriness.

My barbershop is pristine. You should see how good the owner is. Different barbers work at different times. He doesn't want to get Covid, doesn't want to give it to anybody. But he was the enemy to our governor and local officials. I was and am disgusted at the leadership and will vote against all of them. I will add that despite my fury I've obeyed all rules and limited contact with people a LOT.

What did you want your local and state government to do? What did you expect from your government when you wrote to them?

[caulfield12]

12 hours ago, pcq said:

Thanks Chuck I will take Bad Ideas for $100 along with Door #3.

Woolery? 

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/kansas-freshman-gop-rep-watkins-000957910.htmlGreg, still willing to support your Congressman? 

 

In another extraordinary twist on Tuesday, the White House stepped up what is now a full frontal assault against the government's top infectious disease specialist, Dr. Anthony Fauci, who has been telling the truth about the dire turn taken by a pandemic that is now infecting twice as many people per day as it was several months ago. In a USA Today op-ed, Trump's top trade adviser and anti-China polemicist Peter Navarro wrote that the respected scientist "has a good bedside manner with the public, but he has been wrong about everything I have interacted with him on."     cnn.com     

 

Seriously, I wouldn't expect something this non-nonsensical out of Turkey, the Philippines, Brazil or Tajikistan.  Chuck Woolery, a former game show host, is now being "retweeted" as a supposed knowledge leader on Covid-19.  What in the H.E.L.L. is going on in America these days?   Disgraced trade representatives/fringe economists are on the same level as the head of the NIH ever since Ronald Reagan, a fact and science-driven leader still going strong as ever at Joe Biden's current age?

 

ABSOLUTELY EMBARRASSING.

 

 

 

Edited July 15, 2020 by caulfield12

[greg775]

4 hours ago, The Beast said:

What did you want your local and state government to do? What did you expect from your government when you wrote to them?

For some reason I expected a dialogue since I voted for them or against them at the polls at least. These government officials were holding daily news conferences for a while and in my opinion (that's all an opinion) they set the tone of defiance and them against us (not working with us) early. They still won't even address the subject of protests in the streets nightly versus having 20 people at a funeral. When a crisis hit like Covid, they decided to be bold and unrelenting. Their call; I think it was the wrong one when they've taken such a passive attitude toward violence of protestors. Americans aren't dumb; they get upset at bossy public officials and inconsistencies.

Don't freak out if you disagree with me please; life is short and maybe my brain works differently than yours. At least I'm honest about my feelings.

Edited July 15, 2020 by greg775

[greg775]

6 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Greg, based on your posts on this subject over the past few months, you of all people should have come to the realization that people need rules, or they'll act like fvkcing savages. [See: sh!thole red states that had MONTHS to prepare, then those same fvkcing mooks still render mask-wearing as political. Like texasastan and flori-duh. Or even you, a few months ago.]

What's more, your stupid supposition that Kansas' government deemed your barber "the enemy" is so stupid that it insults the stupid. Fvkcing think about it: The BARBER isn't the enemy. It's the ACTIVITY of being indoors, in close proximity, for anywhere from 5-15 minutes at a time, that could pose a threat to people. [IOW, by supplying the requisite viral load to pass on illnesses.] For fvkc's sake, turn off fvkcing fox "news," and pick up a book.

Not a bad post. I read it. I respect your takes. I know it's not your main point but as a side note here ... some of us Americans do feel like the barber is treated as the enemy. Why? Cause the protestors in our autonymous zone were allowed to break the law for a week (defacing some property; breaking a few windows; verbally assaulting people; physically assaulting a car; busting curfew by being in the zone 24/7; trashing up the zone; painting messages on the street without city hall approval). Meanwhile the barber can't open a shop with masks, pristine cleanlliness, him willing to discuss his plans for cleanliness and very few people in the shop with the government. Instead, he's warned go ahead and open up and you will be ticketed every day, maybe arrested. Yes some of us consider the barber the enemy of our governor and mayor when others can break the law in the name of protesting and it's ... oh well, people do things (Nancy's line).

Please accept my comments in the nature they were intended. Honest.

Edited July 15, 2020 by greg775

[caulfield12]

It is all about keeping your social circle as small as possible (it is a numbers game) and keeping the ICUs from being overwhelmed. Cousin’s wife’s brother in Dallas says they have had patients with no symptoms for up to 19 days from original exposure. But if 10 people meet for a get together and 3-4 days later, none of them have symptoms, it is HIGHLY LIKELY that no one was exposed.

Edited July 15, 2020 by caulfield12

[bmags]

57 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

It is all about keeping your social circle as small as possible (it is a numbers game) and keeping the ICUs from being overwhelmed. Cousin’s brother in Dallas says they have had patients with no symptoms for up to 19 days from original exposure. But if 10 people meet for a get together and 3-4 days later, none of them have symptoms, it is HIGHLY LIKELY that no one was exposed.

When I read that, it's hard for me to believe they got the original exposure correct, I don't know.

[caulfield12]

5 minutes ago, bmags said:

When I read that, it's hard for me to believe they got the original exposure correct, I don't know.

My 93 year old uncle (also in Texas) tested positive but somehow developed no symptoms.  Way too many false positives.

[The Beast]

5 hours ago, greg775 said:

For some reason I expected a dialogue since I voted for them or against them at the polls at least. These government officials were holding daily news conferences for a while and in my opinion (that's all an opinion) they set the tone of defiance and them against us (not working with us) early. They still won't even address the subject of protests in the streets nightly versus having 20 people at a funeral. When a crisis hit like Covid, they decided to be bold and unrelenting. Their call; I think it was the wrong one when they've taken such a passive attitude toward violence of protestors. Americans aren't dumb; they get upset at bossy public officials and inconsistencies.

Don't freak out if you disagree with me please; life is short and maybe my brain works differently than yours. At least I'm honest about my feelings.

So you take issue with the inconsistencies shown because the state government wasn’t allowing for haircuts despite precautions, but was allowing protests. I heard similar arguments from people who wanted a 4th of July parade that was cancelled because of the re-opening phase we were in and because of the risk of large crowds, even though the protests by me were significantly smaller than a crowd of a parade.

I don’t “freak out” on people when I disagree with them Greg. I don’t necessarily agree with much of what you said, but I at least acknowledged your argument.

[StrangeSox]

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

My 93 year old uncle (also in Texas) tested positive but somehow developed no symptoms.  Way too many false positives.

Asymptomatic is very common with this disease though?

 

[caulfield12]

7 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

Asymptomatic is very common with this disease though?

 

But among those 80 and above age group who smoked cigarettes and pipe tobacco for at least 60 of those 93 years?