COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[southsider2k5]

58 minutes ago, bmags said:

Awesome, I'll look to take a day soon and hit you up for recs. Will have the 3 year old likely on my shoulders 

Message me when you are ready.

[Two-Gun Pete]

22 hours ago, bmags said:

This is the sound of me sighing just a little bit of relief.

 

 

17 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

This is exactly why I'm not as amped up about today's promising numbers. Wednesday could tell us more. If this week's new case curve follows last week's, we could see ~1,000 cases tomorrow. And then, upwards to ~1,500 or more by Friday. Which would be depressing. [I sincerely hope I'll be wrong, and everyone here can dunk on me for being overly-concerned.]

Ok, so I was wrong: not 1,000 cases, but rather, 1,187.

We're heading the wrong way.

Edited July 15, 2020 by Two-Gun Pete

[The Beast]

31 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

And now we are getting to the part where defiance is leading directly to infection, and then death.   

It’s all about defiance, just like what Greg said. Those dudes in the video were great and all but a few of the males in there were complete assholes.

[bmags]

2 hours ago, StrangeSox said:

Is Israel handling it this badly in schools?

Other school districts across the country have popped up with similar liability waivers and absurd 1-3 day quarantines for staff with symptoms or even PCR positive test results.

We're going to intentionally and knowingly infect, harm and kill a whole lotta people.

 

e: in states like Tennessee, Texas and many others, any striking teacher can be immediately fired. 

Didn't mean to imply Israel was acting irresponsibly in the school situation, they seem to have taken it seriously. Just that it got away from them in a way separate than other countries.

[bmags]

So Pritzker just released an add-on  to the original restore Illinois plan.

https://www2.illinois.gov/Pages/news-item.aspx?ReleaseID=21818

- Increases number of regions to 11

- Creates snap-back triggers:

 If :

- new cases increase for 7 straight days (or average increases 7 straight days), OR hits 8 % positivity rate in average

And 1 of:

- Hospital admissions increase 7 days or capacity hits critical threshold

Then it graduates through a number of different things:

- First thing to go is bar service and reduction in capacities. 

- Second thing is basically indoor dining and personal service

- Third tier sounds basically like the California order

Not that thrilled with this but they may figure with the constant undermining via lawsuits they had to go more regional. But things can get out of control quickly and I'd prefer the snapback happens at the state level to discourage travel from the hot spots.

[StrangeSox]

Per Rich Miller (Capital Fax guy/Illinois politics reporter heavy hitter), Illinois has roughly 1/3 of the number of contact tracers we need currently. Gotta ask again, how on earth did we get to Phase 4 while clearly not meeting the requirements for contact tracing?

JB was really strong out of the gate on this, but since about mid-June, he's caved to a lot of pressure to reopen. It's inexcusable to still have bars and indoor dining open. Opening the schools is going to be a huge disaster.

[Balta1701]

8 minutes ago, bmags said:

So Pritzker just released an add-on  to the original restore Illinois plan.

https://www2.illinois.gov/Pages/news-item.aspx?ReleaseID=21818

- Increases number of regions to 11

- Creates snap-back triggers:

 If :

- new cases increase for 7 straight days (or average increases 7 straight days), OR hits 8 % positivity rate in average

And 1 of:

- Hospital admissions increase 7 days or capacity hits critical threshold

Then it graduates through a number of different things:

- First thing to go is bar service and reduction in capacities. 

- Second thing is basically indoor dining and personal service

- Third tier sounds basically like the California order

Not that thrilled with this but they may figure with the constant undermining via lawsuits they had to go more regional. But things can get out of control quickly and I'd prefer the snapback happens at the state level to discourage travel from the hot spots.

Compared to here, we have no idea what would actually cause the governor to issue any additional shutdown orders, having an official list of what causes things to be re-closed is an improvement. The "7 day moving average increasing" is a pretty strong constraint, if employed hard enough that would limit its potential to get out of control. Texas's 7 day average has been increasing since the first re-opening orders were issued in April - there's one brief time when it goes down but that's entirely due to fewer tests on memorial day. Had that rule been in place here, things would have never re-opened. 

[bmags]

5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Compared to here, we have no idea what would actually cause the governor to issue any additional shutdown orders, having an official list of what causes things to be re-closed is an improvement. The "7 day moving average increasing" is a pretty strong constraint, if employed hard enough that would limit its potential to get out of control. Texas's 7 day average has been increasing since the first re-opening orders were issued in April - there's one brief time when it goes down but that's entirely due to fewer tests on memorial day. Had that rule been in place here, things would have never re-opened. 

I think my disappointment is that this seems actually more forgiving than what I thought was already on the books which was a move back to phase 3 (no indoor dining). 

But I do think this is trying to square an anticipated rise in cases with a group of politicians in western and southern Illinois that will litigate any statewide rulings - which could undermine things more.

[StrangeSox]

Quote

 

• Sustained increase in 7-day rolling average (7 out of 10 days) in the positivity rate and one of the following severity indicators:

o Sustained 7-day increase in hospital admissions for a COVID-19 like illness
o Reduction in hospital capacity threatening surge capabilities (ICU capacity or medical/surgical beds < 20%)

• OR three consecutive days averaging ≥ 8% positivity rate

 

 

It's not new cases increase for a rolling 7-day average, which would be a good metric. It's if the positivity rate increases for 7 straight days and hospitalizations increase in the same period. Positivity rate just tells you if you're testing enough to make informed decisions. It doesn't tell you if you actually have things under control, and it's something you can essentially artificially lower if you can get your testing capacity high enough even with high case counts. Without robust contact tracing and isolation efforts, it's kinda meaningless. And you'd expect hospitalizations to lag increased cases or positivity by a week or two anyway, so triggering both at once may mean you've let the thing continue to grow exponentially for another couple of weeks. Very disappointing.

 

Edited July 15, 2020 by StrangeSox

[caulfield12]

Meanwhile, Oklahoma governor shockingly is Covid-19 positive.  And kudos to Dr. Anthony Fauci for keeping his cool while maintaining a sense of humor throughout this... 
 

“I cannot figure out in my wildest dreams why they would want to do that," he said. "I think they realize now that that was not a prudent thing to do, because it's only reflecting negatively on them.”

 

 

Tate Reeves is the Republican governor of Mississippi. He's also an economics major who worked for a bank prior to getting into politics.

In other words, he knows numbers. 

Which brings me to a series of tweets from Reeves earlier this week in which he systematically destroyed the argument that everyone should just get Covid-19 now so that we build up a herd immunity. (The geniuses behind that theory of the case are some of the same ones pushing for young people to have coronavirus parties so everyone there gets exposed.)

Here's Reeves' data-driven argument against that thinking -- in seven tweets.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/15/politics/tate-reeves-mississippi-coronavirus-herd-immunity/index.html

Edited July 15, 2020 by caulfield12

[pcq]

3 hours ago, Kyyle23 said:

And now we are getting to the part where defiance is leading directly to infection, and then death.   

Some of them saying my body my choice. Some of them will die and who knows how many others.

[southsider2k5]

4 minutes ago, pcq said:

Some of them saying my body my choice. Some of them will die and who knows how many others.

It doesn't bother me that people who make that choice might die, what bothers me is that they will infect others who will die.

[pcq]

12 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

It doesn't bother me that people who make that choice might die, what bothers me is that they will infect others who will die.

Whatever you learned about facts and logic are not allowed on this side of the border wall. I had to laugh at Canada locking the US out.

[StrangeSox]

15 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

It doesn't bother me that people who make that choice might die, what bothers me is that they will infect others who will die.

 

[southsider2k5]

9 minutes ago, pcq said:

Whatever you learned about facts and logic are not allowed on this side of the border wall. I had to laugh at Canada locking the US out.

Pretty much the entire world has made a US passport worthless.  We were supposed to go to Niagara for our 20th anniversary next month, granted we had shut down that idea months ago, but now it is literally impossible.

[caulfield12]

14 Tweets That Sum Up How Teachers Feel About Going Back To School During A Pandemic

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/14-tweets-sum-teachers-feel-050000198.html

[greg775]

10 hours ago, The Beast said:

I don’t “freak out” on people when I disagree with them Greg. I don’t necessarily agree with much of what you said, but I at least acknowledged your argument.

Yes I realize that. I just heard I might be a negative on this board sometimes so I am trying to be polite while stressing I truly believe what I say. Thanks.

[greg775]

7 hours ago, StrangeSox said:

lol, also infuriating 

I love those two guys; they were so polite. I feel sorry for my fellow conservatives. They come across so angry at the mere mention of a mask. I mean those guys are giving em away free. Lot of places are demanding u wear 'em. These jerks should take advantage and grab a free mask.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

It’s a very real possibility that a 100% effective vaccine is never developed. Maybe it’s effectiveness is ultimately in line with the flu shot.

In that scenario, what to do with the schools then? Can’t expect working parents to teach their kids from home indefinitely. The kids are going to suffer and in many cases it’s not even feasible if parents aren’t working remotely.

[The Beast]

1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

It’s a very real possibility that a 100% effective vaccine is never developed. Maybe it’s effectiveness is ultimately in line with the flu shot.

In that scenario, what to do with the schools then? Can’t expect working parents to teach their kids from home indefinitely. The kids are going to suffer and in many cases it’s not even feasible if parents aren’t working remotely.

Not sure, but herd immunity is not a humane option. (I’m not saying you are suggesting that either.)

[turnin' two]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

14 Tweets That Sum Up How Teachers Feel About Going Back To School During A Pandemic

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/14-tweets-sum-teachers-feel-050000198.html

Meh. They are basically in the same situation as millions of other people. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

14 minutes ago, The Beast said:

Not sure, but herd immunity is not a humane option. (I’m not saying you are suggesting that either.)

I guess I’m saying that we need to put our collective heads together and figure out a solution that still allows for in class instruction. I knows it’s challenging and we are still learning more and more about this virus every day but it’s disappointing that we haven’t figured out a more effective way of doing this after months of planning.

Again, in the scenario that herd immunity is not viable (because the virus mutates to different strains ala influenza) and no effective vaccine is produced, what are we going to do? If we switch to remote learning, I would expect a major shakeup to how both families and the economy are structured. Back to the days of one non-working spouse to take care of and teach the kids, and I would also hope a significant property tax reduction (since public schools account for a high percentage of the tax bill) to help offset the loss in household income.

[Soxbadger]

18 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I guess I’m saying that we need to put our collective heads together and figure out a solution that still allows for in class instruction. I knows it’s challenging and we are still learning more and more about this virus every day but it’s disappointing that we haven’t figured out a more effective way of doing this after months of planning.

Again, in the scenario that herd immunity is not viable (because the virus mutates to different strains ala influenza) and no effective vaccine is produced, what are we going to do? If we switch to remote learning, I would expect a major shakeup to how both families and the economy are structured. Back to the days of one non-working spouse to take care of and teach the kids, and I would also hope a significant property tax reduction (since public schools account for a high percentage of the tax bill) to help offset the loss in household income.

The solution was to wear masks, shut things down and stop the spread back in March/April.

But we couldnt pull together. 

Almost every other country could do it. We just didnt prioritize schools, we prioritized our rights not to wear masks.

The US still is fighting the science. Why even have school? We dont listen to scientists anyways.

[caulfield12]

We gave Boeing and the major airlines how much again, $60 billion and counting?   Good luck with those who keep calling for property tax REDUCTIONS.

 

New Estimate to Reopen Schools After Coronavirus: $116.5 Billion

A projection by the American Federation of Teachers estimated that America’s K-12 schools will need an average of $1.2 million each to reopen from coronavirus-related closures.

A SOBERING NEW ESTIMATE for how much it will cost schools to reopen in the fall – both safely and with the proper academic and emotional supports in place for the 55 million children whose schools were shuttered as the coronavirus spread across the U.S. – puts the total financial burden at $116.5 billion.

https://www.usnews.com/news/education-news/articles/2020-06-09/new-estimate-to-reopen-schools-after-coronavirus-1165-billion

[The Beast]

38 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I guess I’m saying that we need to put our collective heads together and figure out a solution that still allows for in class instruction. I knows it’s challenging and we are still learning more and more about this virus every day but it’s disappointing that we haven’t figured out a more effective way of doing this after months of planning.

Again, in the scenario that herd immunity is not viable (because the virus mutates to different strains ala influenza) and no effective vaccine is produced, what are we going to do? If we switch to remote learning, I would expect a major shakeup to how both families and the economy are structured. Back to the days of one non-working spouse to take care of and teach the kids, and I would also hope a significant property tax reduction (since public schools account for a high percentage of the tax bill) to help offset the loss in household income.

My proposed solution is to do three days in school, two days out of school. For younger kids, maybe that is five days in school, assuming they don’t get infected as much as others do.

I don’t know what is going to happen without a vaccine that can be used in the way that childhood vaccinations or one that is like the seasonal flu. I can’t say that property taxes will get reduced in a state like Illinois without spending reform. But the economy could get transformed, without a doubt.

My biggest concern is coming up with a plan for my anxious pregnant high school teacher wife to go back to work in the fall for two months before she takes maternity leave. She talks to HR next week to see what her options are.

I fully anticipate starting with in person instruction (four days in, one day online)  to fail as cases soar. I then bet school will be remote until a vaccine is created. If not, I don’t know what there is to do.