COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[greg775]

37 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

Damnit.  All those Europeans are still vulnerable to the virus?  Who’d have guessed?  Damnit and all those Swedes finally died.  The exponential death was inevitable.  
 

Now we have 2000 dead in a day.  Here comes the exponential spike.  Probably be at a million by the end of the month. Liz Specht was right for sure.  

Geez. This is utterly scary and depressing.

[Balta1701]

8 hours ago, Jerksticks said:

Damnit.  All those Europeans are still vulnerable to the virus?  Who’d have guessed?  Damnit and all those Swedes finally died.  The exponential death was inevitable.  
 

Now we have 2000 dead in a day.  Here comes the exponential spike.  Probably be at a million by the end of the month. Liz Specht was right for sure.  

You’re still going with this bullshit? Stop. 

[caulfield12]

50 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

You’re still going with this bullshit? Stop. 

What would actually alarm the right on this, besides their own family members/friends dying?   3000 per day?  5000?  10,000?

[Jack Parkman]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

What would actually alarm the right on this, besides their own family members/friends dying?   3000 per day?  5000?  10,000?

Nothing, as they believe in social darwinism as dogma. He who has the most money, gets to live. Fuck everyone else. 

Your worth as a human being is based on the size of your portfolio to these people.  

They don't care, and it's time to stop pretending that they do. 

Edited August 7, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[StrangeSox]

11 hours ago, Jerksticks said:

Damnit.  All those Europeans are still vulnerable to the virus?  Who’d have guessed?  Damnit and all those Swedes finally died.  The exponential death was inevitable.  
 

Now we have 2000 dead in a day.  Here comes the exponential spike.  Probably be at a million by the end of the month. Liz Specht was right for sure.  

Don't worry 50-100m Americans definitely already had it by mid March

[StrangeSox]

Just shrugging off 1,000-2,000 dead Americans every day for ???, normal times and country

[almagest]

13 hours ago, StrangeSox said:

 

What? No they didn't. Every tracker I see shows ~1200 yesterday (538, COVID Tracker, Worldometers), and a downward trend from late July when we were ~1400. Searching for "Johns Hopkins AFP COVID deaths" on 8/6 I only see articles like this: https://www.channelstv.com/2020/08/06/us-adds-1262-virus-deaths-in-24-hours-johns-hopkins/

Quote

The United States added 1,262 more deaths to its COVID-19 toll in the 24 hours ending at 8:30 pm Wednesday (0030 GMT), according to a tally by Johns Hopkins University.

 

[turnin' two]

13 minutes ago, almagest said:

What? No they didn't. Every tracker I see shows ~1200 yesterday (538, COVID Tracker, Worldometers), and a downward trend from late July when we were ~1400. Searching for "Johns Hopkins AFP COVID deaths" on 8/6 I only see articles like this: https://www.channelstv.com/2020/08/06/us-adds-1262-virus-deaths-in-24-hours-johns-hopkins/

 

Huh, so are you saying that we shouldn't believe what every random twitter handle says?  That's weird.  

 

[Jerksticks]

19 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

Don't worry 50-100m Americans definitely already had it by mid March

That was my guess at the time.  I’d say that’s probably more accurate now?  The point is I still think way more people have it and have had it than is reported...by many MAGNITUDES.   
 

And nobody is shrugging anything off.  It’s just almost time to acknowledge that pretty much everybody was wrong, by a loooong shot.  Which is a good thing!  Less dead people is good!  I’ll never understand the people rooting for death.  

[Soxbadger]

3 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

That was my guess at the time.  I’d say that’s probably more accurate now?  The point is I still think way more people have it and have had it than is reported...by many MAGNITUDES.   
 

And nobody is shrugging anything off.  It’s just almost time to acknowledge that pretty much everybody was wrong, by a loooong shot.  Which is a good thing!  Less dead people is good!  I’ll never understand the people rooting for death.  

?

I remember being told months ago US deaths would top out at like 60k. Were now at 150k, how is that less dead people?

 

https://www.npr.org/2020/04/09/830664814/fauci-says-u-s-coronavirus-deaths-may-be-more-like-60-000-antibody-tests-on-way

[southsider2k5]

3 minutes ago, Soxbadger said:

?

I remember being told months ago US deaths would top out at like 60k. Were now at 150k, how is that less dead people?

 

https://www.npr.org/2020/04/09/830664814/fauci-says-u-s-coronavirus-deaths-may-be-more-like-60-000-antibody-tests-on-way

I remember being told it was only 15 cases and under control.

[southsider2k5]

24 minutes ago, almagest said:

What? No they didn't. Every tracker I see shows ~1200 yesterday (538, COVID Tracker, Worldometers), and a downward trend from late July when we were ~1400. Searching for "Johns Hopkins AFP COVID deaths" on 8/6 I only see articles like this: https://www.channelstv.com/2020/08/06/us-adds-1262-virus-deaths-in-24-hours-johns-hopkins/

 

https://www.barrons.com/news/us-tops-2-000-deaths-in-24-hours-for-first-time-in-three-months-johns-hopkins-01596761106

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, Tony said:

You won't understand it because no one is, you tremendous dolt. Reporting daily numbers, and seeing them rise, isn't rooting for death, it's reporting the news. 

We are all so tired of your shtick. You've been berated before, but you continue to come back to with your sarcastic, aw shucks posts "Here comes the millions more dead!"

Shut.The.Fuck.Up.

And no one is rooting for deaths.  They are hoping that the number of deaths will wake people up who seem to not want to take this serious so that even MORE people won't have to die.  But as we have seen if it isn't affecting someone directly, they don't believe it is real.

[StrangeSox]

25 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Huh, so are you saying that we shouldn't believe what every random twitter handle says?  That's weird.  

 

 

38 minutes ago, almagest said:

What? No they didn't. Every tracker I see shows ~1200 yesterday (538, COVID Tracker, Worldometers), and a downward trend from late July when we were ~1400. Searching for "Johns Hopkins AFP COVID deaths" on 8/6 I only see articles like this: https://www.channelstv.com/2020/08/06/us-adds-1262-virus-deaths-in-24-hours-johns-hopkins/

 

The source is AFP, a french newswire service akin to the AP here. Here is their original tweet:

 

They may have either misreported or they may be reporting on a different 24-hour time window. Note that they do say "in 24 hours" rather than "in a single day," so they may be looking at the data differently than the 830pm-830-pm window cited in your article.

 

edit: based on the Barron's link ss2k5 posted, it reads like AFP misreported or that there was maybe a temporary glitch in the JH data that was fixed, but not before they sent out their report.

 

23 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

That was my guess at the time.  I’d say that’s probably more accurate now?  The point is I still think way more people have it and have had it than is reported...by many MAGNITUDES.   
 

And nobody is shrugging anything off.  It’s just almost time to acknowledge that pretty much everybody was wrong, by a loooong shot.  Which is a good thing!  Less dead people is good!  I’ll never understand the people rooting for death.  

No, it's time to acknowledge that the people who have said this was a serious issue that could lead to hundreds of thousands of deaths in this country if we didn't take strong and immediate steps to control the spread were right, and that the people insisting it was no big deal and we all probably already had it were dead wrong.

 

The IMHE model, which has been very conservative compared to other models out there, is still saying 300k dead people in the US by the end of the year. The 2M dead model that finally got our government (and the UK) to take this seriously made that prediction with the assumption of zero mitigation efforts, which is what the UK government's policy was at the time.

Edited August 7, 2020 by StrangeSox

[almagest]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

https://www.barrons.com/news/us-tops-2-000-deaths-in-24-hours-for-first-time-in-three-months-johns-hopkins-01596761106

I don't know where this is coming from. I couldn't find a direct count but I did find a list of total deaths in the country per day on the Johns Hopkins site - the breakdown is:

8/4 150.5k

8/5 151.8k (+1300)

8/6 153.1k (+1300)

This lines up with every other site I've checked.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map

[StrangeSox]

DIVOC-91 out of UIUC uses the JHU dataset but gives you some more controls over the visualizations

 

https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countries&highlight=United States&show=25&y=both&scale=linear&data=deaths-daily-7&data-source=jhu&xaxis=left#countries

 

 

We have been hovering at just over 1k deaths/day in the 7-day average for most of this week.

[almagest]

2 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

 

The source is AFP, a french newswire service akin to the AP here. Here is their original tweet:

 

They may have either misreported or they may be reporting on a different 24-hour time window. Note that they do say "in 24 hours" rather than "in a single day," so they may be looking at the data differently than the 830pm-830-pm window cited in your article.

How are you going to massage ~1200 - 1300 deaths per 24 hour period in the past 3 days or so to show 2000 deaths, when the 2k figure from early May is almost certainly using the same reporting methods that lead to the 1200-1300 figures we're seeing everywhere else, including on the Johns Hopkins website?

[caulfield12]

25 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

And no one is rooting for deaths.  They are hoping that the number of deaths will wake people up who seem to not want to take this serious so that even MORE people won't have to die.  But as we have seen if it isn't affecting someone directly, they don't believe it is real.

I was scolded twice on the public bus today for pulling my mask down under my chin because it’s so hot and uncomfortable these days...still mandatory temp checks to board to enter public places like shopping malls.  Everyone on bus masked.  Zero exceptions.  You still have to scan with QR codes to show your location when going into theatre, for example.

We’re not anywhere close to HK, Vietnam, Australia, Philippines...where cases numbers are popping up again.

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, Jerksticks said:

That was my guess at the time.  I’d say that’s probably more accurate now?  The point is I still think way more people have it and have had it than is reported...by many MAGNITUDES.   
 

And nobody is shrugging anything off.  It’s just almost time to acknowledge that pretty much everybody was wrong, by a loooong shot.  Which is a good thing!  Less dead people is good!  I’ll never understand the people rooting for death.  

Most broad scale tests have found ~5% or so of the population of hte US has had it, so let's go with 5%, maybe about 20 million people give or take, which also is a perfect fit with a death rate just under 1%. 

Off by "many magnitudes" so let's say 3 orders of magnitude. 

Ergo, you believe 20 billion Americans have had this virus. 

I see a handful of problems with your estimate. 

And for "Nobody shrugging anything off", do you want your posts saying "we flattened the curve successfully and that was the goal" fired back at you or the ones where you're mocking the idea that deaths were about to spike from reopening stuff? Your sarcasm...wound up being exactly right, as soon as things opened, the stuff you mockingly said would happen...happened. 

On 5/24/2020 at 1:01 PM, Jerksticks said:

It’s almost like our top experts knew this was going to happen so they decided on a flatten the curve policy instead of a quarantine policy.  

On 5/26/2020 at 2:21 PM, Jerksticks said:

Well here we go right?  If we don’t see the exponential death in the coming weeks... gonna be surprising right?  
 

Obviously we should expect to see some growth since we simply flattened the curve with social distancing and staying home somewhat and never tried to snuff out the virus.  But if we don’t see EXPONENTIAL death...how can that possibly be explained?

 

Countries around the world opening up, but 90% of the populations are still vulnerable.  We know how infectious it is.  So here we go.  Exponential death.  It must be so.  The narrative this whole time ONLY supports that particular outcome.  So here we go.  Buckle up.  Stay home.  This thing is about to be a brushfire.  

[Balta1701]

58 minutes ago, almagest said:

How are you going to massage ~1200 - 1300 deaths per 24 hour period in the past 3 days or so to show 2000 deaths, when the 2k figure from early May is almost certainly using the same reporting methods that lead to the 1200-1300 figures we're seeing everywhere else, including on the Johns Hopkins website?

I'd imagine this is a "tricky" setup where there were reports late in the day on Wednesday, maybe even Pacific time on Wednesday, followed by a big surge early in the day on Thursday such that 2000 in a "24 hour period" is actually correct, but not really teaching much more than the daily count.

[caulfield12]

I expect Jerksticks will be found HERE

‘Screw COVID’: 250,000 Bikers to Defy Common Sense for Nine Days at Sturgis Rally

https://www.yahoo.com/news/screw-covid-250-000-bikers-083423022.html

Edited August 7, 2020 by caulfield12

[turnin' two]

10 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

I expect Jerksticks will be found HERE

‘Screw COVID’: 250,000 Bikers to Defy Common Sense for Nine Days at Sturgis Rally

https://www.yahoo.com/news/screw-covid-250-000-bikers-083423022.html

 I don't think this is fair.  He hasn't demonstrated a screw covid mentality.  Unless I misunderstand, he just thinks many more people have already had it. 

[caulfield12]

15 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

 I don't think this is fair.  He hasn't demonstrated a screw covid mentality.  Unless I misunderstand, he just thinks many more people have already had it. 

Based upon what scientifically-verifiable evidence?

[Jerksticks]

1 hour ago, turnin' two said:

 I don't think this is fair.  He hasn't demonstrated a screw covid mentality.  Unless I misunderstand, he just thinks many more people have already had it. 

Thank you.  That’s all I’ve ever said.  Getting lumped in with the Screw-Covid crowd basically led me to stop posting about it.  I’ve been personally affected by the virus- I take it very seriously.  

Thinking way more people have been exposed is never talked about.  It’s strange.  It would mean the death rate is magnitudes lower, which would ruin a lot of narratives I guess?  I don’t get it.  

There’s definitely evidence pointing to that now, so my new question is, when is it time to talk about it?  When can we posit questions without getting flamed?

It’s been 6 months.

Clearly not yet. 

[StrangeSox]

It's not talked about because there's not evidence that it is that widespread and some evidence that it isn't from multiple countries and regions. Since all indications are that it isn't widespread and a whole lot of the population still have naive immune systems, it doesn't make sense to speculate. It could make people drastically change their risk evaluations for the worse and engage in more risky behavior likely to spread the disease if they think they've already probably had it and so have most other people.

It's just been wishful thinking from the start that we don't actually have to worry about this or take it all that seriously.