COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[caulfield12]

4 minutes ago, ron883 said:

The president recently called the coronavirus "the next hoax" at a rally. 

Sure, because it’s in his personal interest...and about protecting the stock market, which he directly correlates more than anything else to the positive/favorable ratings on handling of the economy.

That said, what is needed now is science, coordination, a unified message and listening to experts instead of political appointees.

Politics at the local vs. national level here is what allowed this whole thing to spin out of control.   Attempting to muzzle the truth and weakening local/regional governments because all of the power/intimidation is in the hands of one person just doesn’t work in this new era of instant information connectivity.  Tens of thousands of internet censors here couldn’t stop it...it would require millions, and those resources are best allocated to fighting the problem, like building two hospitals in 10-14 days.

The US is so polarized right now, maybe this is the only way to unite the country again, because it’s hard to imagine a hospital getting built in even 2-3 years, let alone less than two weeks.

[greg775]

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Sure, because it’s in his personal interest...and about protecting the stock market, which he directly correlates more than anything else to the positive/favorable ratings on handling of the economy.

That said, what is needed now is science, coordination, a unified message and listening to experts instead of political appointees.

Politics at the local vs. national level here is what allowed this whole thing to spin out of control.   Attempting to muzzle the truth and weakening local/regional governments because all of the power/intimidation is in the hands of one person just doesn’t work in this new era of instant information connectivity.  Tens of thousands of internet censors here couldn’t stop it...it would require millions, and those resources are best allocated to fighting the problem, like building two hospitals in 10-14 days.

The US is so polarized right now, maybe this is the only way to unite the country again, because it’s hard to imagine a hospital getting built in even 2-3 years, let alone less than two weeks.

You sound very concerned Caulfield. Here, as somebody stated there is utter calm as if we have no problem. Which is it? Hundreds of thousands to be quarantined soon or nobody? Take care sir.

[caulfield12]

On 2/29/2020 at 1:12 PM, greg775 said:

You sound very concerned Caulfield. Here, as somebody stated there is utter calm as if we have no problem. Which is it? Hundreds of thousands to be quarantined soon or nobody? Take care sir.

Probably something in between...but it’s always better to be prepared, than to bury your head in the sand and hope/pray for the best outcome.

https://multimedia.scmp.com/infographics/news/china/article/3052721/wuhan-killer/index.html?src=pm&fbclid=IwAR3BeSMW5c0cb7MVRLRQ2nHziAYiXgXyiXoWUvdX94YSY-rzKy2Zi5WB4lM
If you really want to understand it, Greg, read this.

 

[Balta1701]

Ok, with what we know as of right now it is clear there has been a complete failure of public health systems in this country and it will eventually cost lives, possibly in the hundreds of thousands. We are going to see a skyrocketing number of cases this week in the US from people who have been sick but not recognized, and unless the US follows the Korean/Italian/Chinese model and begins fully shutting down areas right now, the virus will spread from there.

This is clearly on the CDC. They have made a number of enormous mistakes at this point.

1. Approximately 20 cases came back from China and nearby in various stages since late January. It is now clear that these cases were not contained in the US. We have a cluster in Washington that started in late January, we have a cluster in California that started at some point (not known yet), we have a case in San Antonio of an infected person being allowed to leave quarantine, and we have a whistleblower report saying that the quarantine techniques used in California were crap. Local and regional hospitals and health care centers are not trained or equipped to deal with epidemic control, they rely on the CDC for equipment and expertise, and it's now clear that there have been multiple failures over the course of a month+. An 80% success rate in this case is not nearly acceptable. 

2. Had #1 not happened the rest of these might not have mattered as much, but #1 makes this far more important. Although the World Health Organization was offering countries test kits, the US did not accept them and said they could produce their own. The CDC produced a few, but many of them had an issue that prevented their use. This week there will be dozens of labs in the US finally set up to do these tests, but the US hasn't been able to effectively test for this disease at all for the entire month.

3. The CDC gave orders not to test people unless they had specifically returned from an infected region; their orders were based on the assumption that there could not be any community transmission. While other countries have done tens of thousands of screenings, through the end of last week the US is at something like 100 or less. So even if people in WA felt sick in mid-Feb when that cluster could have been recognized, they either weren't treated or they weren't identified. It's only now that they're ramping up to a few thousand completed tests, and we don't  know what fraction of those might have had production issues.

Altogether it is now virtually certain that there are clusters of several hundred people sick in both Washington and California, and maybe elsewhere as well. Worse, we know the Washington one has been around for a month, meaning there was a round of people sick in mid-February and literally 0 of those cases were recognized, so the people who are being recognized as being sick right now are the 3rd or 4th generation of ill folks in that area. The California one may have been around for that long. At this point, tracking down the connections over the full last month in those zones would be literally impossible. The only option to contain this right now is to close down basically the entire US west coast and start testing everyone who goes to a doctor for anything, while quarantining those who do test positive. 

If we don't shut down those areas today, people will transmit it today. There will be people who go to work today and get infected, who go to school today and get infected, and that will be the case every day. Now that it's clear these clusters are out there, the worst parts of the US health care system - the high costs that motivate people to avoid seeking care, the lack of paid time off for illnesses that force people to come to work even if they're not 100% - those will now make this worse.

There has been a clear breakdown at the CDC. Whether it's because of budget cuts or because they received orders to not do anything large scale because that might make the politicians look bad, who knows, but the failure has now happened. There should be investigations and people should lose their jobs, but there isn't even time for that right now. Right now, countries all over are finding patients infected from Italy and Iran - in about a week or two that's going to be happening with US based travelers. 

So in other words, Greg, go ahead and panic.

[Jerksticks]

30 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Ok, with what we know as of right now it is clear there has been a complete failure of public health systems in this country and it will eventually cost lives, possibly in the hundreds of thousands. We are going to see a skyrocketing number of cases this week in the US from people who have been sick but not recognized, and unless the US follows the Korean/Italian/Chinese model and begins fully shutting down areas right now, the virus will spread from there.

This is clearly on the CDC. They have made a number of enormous mistakes at this point.

1. Approximately 20 cases came back from China and nearby in various stages since late January. It is now clear that these cases were not contained in the US. We have a cluster in Washington that started in late January, we have a cluster in California that started at some point (not known yet), we have a case in San Antonio of an infected person being allowed to leave quarantine, and we have a whistleblower report saying that the quarantine techniques used in California were crap. Local and regional hospitals and health care centers are not trained or equipped to deal with epidemic control, they rely on the CDC for equipment and expertise, and it's now clear that there have been multiple failures over the course of a month+. An 80% success rate in this case is not nearly acceptable. 

2. Had #1 not happened the rest of these might not have mattered as much, but #1 makes this far more important. Although the World Health Organization was offering countries test kits, the US did not accept them and said they could produce their own. The CDC produced a few, but many of them had an issue that prevented their use. This week there will be dozens of labs in the US finally set up to do these tests, but the US hasn't been able to effectively test for this disease at all for the entire month.

3. The CDC gave orders not to test people unless they had specifically returned from an infected region; their orders were based on the assumption that there could not be any community transmission. While other countries have done tens of thousands of screenings, the US is at something like 100 or less. So even if people in WA felt sick in mid-Feb when that cluster could have been recognized, they either weren't treated or they weren't identified. 

Altogether it is now virtually certain that there are clusters of several hundred people sick in both Washington and California, and maybe elsewhere as well. Worse, we know the Washington one has been around for a month, meaning there was a round of people sick in mid-February and literally 0 of those cases were recognized, so the people who are being recognized as being sick right now are the 3rd or 4th generation of ill folks in that area. The California one may have been around for that long. At this point, tracking down the connections over the full last month in those zones would be literally impossible. The only option to contain this right now is to close down basically the entire US west coast and start testing everyone who goes to a doctor for anything, while quarantining those who do test positive. 

If we don't shut down those areas today, people will transmit it today. There will be people who go to work today and get infected, who go to school today and get infected, and that will be the case every day. Now that it's clear these clusters are out there, the worst parts of the US health care system - the high costs that motivate people to avoid seeking care, the lack of paid time off for illnesses that force people to come to work even if they're not 100% - those will now make this worse.

There has been a clear breakdown at the CDC. Whether it's because of budget cuts or because they received orders to not do anything large scale because that might make the politicians look bad, who knows, but the failure has now happened. There should be investigations and people should lose their jobs, but there isn't even time for that right now. Right now, countries all over are finding patients infected from Italy and Iran - in about a week or two that's going to be happening with US based travelers. 

So in other words, Greg, go ahead and panic.

Eh.  There was no stopping this.  It traveled all over the world Jan-Feb.  It was over by New Years in reality.  Wash your hands and avoid hookers and blow for a few months

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

Eh.  There was no stopping this.  It traveled all over the world Jan-Feb.  It was over by New Years in reality.  Wash your hands and avoid hookers and blow for a few months

The lesson from places like Japan and Singapore is the opposite - that it is possible to at least slow it down, if not stop it, through aggressive tracking and appropriate quarantine. 

What's really going to matter from that is that the US doesn't maintain excess capacity in its health care system. So, if it travels rapidly through the US, the US doesn't have the resources to handle that response other than sending people home. And the failures at the CDC combined with the US health care system being so poorly designed for this, it's going to kill people.

Finally, just remember when you tell people "it's not going to be bad", those of us who have compromised immune systems also hear "if you die it's fine because I won't". 

[Iwritecode]

On 2/28/2020 at 11:12 PM, greg775 said:

Here, as somebody stated there is utter calm as if we have no problem. 

Yep, everything is fine. Nobody panicking at all.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/02/shoppers-flock-to-costco-over-coronavirus-fears-analyst-expecting-sales-boost.html

 

[caulfield12]

How did they go from just a few hundred being tested to one million by this Friday?

Any basis in reality?

Really feel for those stuck in the political warfare in Texas between courts, local government and CDC...Bexar County/San Antonio.

Saw another refugee from Wuhan and his daughter were charged around $2800 for ambulance costs upon arriving via airplane...luckily, his story got into the NY Times gofundme.com subsidized him with almost $20,000.

He will probably spend most of the remaining money to pay for healthcare on the private market in the US, since he apparently left his job and health insurance back here in Wuhan.

 

Can we really rely on gofundme to permanently subsidize health insurance issues in the US, especially with the S.C. posdibly undoing the entire ObamaCare framework in the middle of a global pandemic as early as October?

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

How did they go from just a few hundred being tested to one million by this Friday?

Any basis in reality?

 

Of course not. We'll have >10k tests done by the end of the week most likely because now we're allowing states to do them on their own. That will mean likely several hundred additional cases discovered, depending on how good of a job they've done finding the thousands that are out there.

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Can we really rely on gofundme to permanently subsidize health insurance issues in the US, especially with the S.C. posdibly undoing the entire ObamaCare framework in the middle of a global pandemic as early as October?

LOL no. Our system is built on the premise that you should tough it out through as many illnesses as you can, to do otherwise is overuse.

[he gone.]

Events like this really let the optimistic and pessimistic personalities shine through. Not saying either are right or wrong.

[ChiSox59]

3 hours ago, BrianAnderson said:

Events like this really let the optimistic and pessimistic personalities shine through. Not saying either are right or wrong.

BA, look at your PMs.  

[caulfield12]

6 hours ago, BrianAnderson said:

Events like this really let the optimistic and pessimistic personalities shine through. Not saying either are right or wrong.

Well, when you haven’t been able to leave your apartment once in six whole weeks now, live 2 km from the epicenter ...and have witnessed this whole thing from ground zero, it’s pretty challenging to be optimistic.

If the Chinese govn’t intervened a week earlier, there would only be +/- 25,000 global cases.   If they delayed the lockdown another week, there would arguably be 250,000 global cases and around 9000 deaths.   The reality is more or less 80,000 now.

Doubling every six days or so now, the real numbers of people carrying the virus in the US asymptomatically has to be in the thousands if not tens of thousands.  The CDC is just way behind catching up because they were originally only looking at travel-related and not community transmission.

[greg775]

19 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Well, when you haven’t been able to leave your apartment once in six whole weeks now, live 2 km from the epicenter ...and have witnessed this whole thing from ground zero, it’s pretty challenging to be optimistic.

If the Chinese govn’t intervened a week earlier, there would only be +/- 25,000 global cases.   If they delayed the lockdown another week, there would arguably be 250,000 global cases and around 9000 deaths.   The reality is more or less 80,000 now.

Doubling every six days or so now, the real numbers of people carrying the virus in the US asymptomatically has to be in the thousands if not tens of thousands.  The CDC is just way behind catching up because they were originally only looking at travel-related and not community transmission.

Seriously, what do you do if you have no food hanging around the apartment? I guess if it hits here, if there are a couple cases reported, I better stock up on something.

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, greg775 said:

Seriously, what do you do if you have no food hanging around the apartment? I guess if it hits here, if there are a couple cases reported, I better stock up on something.

TBH, yeah this is not the worst idea. Does everyone here have an answer for what they'd do if they needed a couple weeks of supplies right now?

[caulfield12]

By the way, does anyone know the commercial cost of those coronavirus test kits if you don’t have health insurance?

As far as Greg’s question, we are able to order SOME basic staple foods online and then they get delivered to our apartment gates within a matter of 1-3 days.

I’d just say to make sure to have all the meds you need, at least two weeks’ food and dietary needs, bottled water...toilet paper and hand sanitizers and N-95 masks are probably the three items where there are runs on them and shortages/price increases.

[caulfield12]

Source: cnn.com

Delays in testing: However, the government has also hit snags. There are widespread concerns about the accessibility of testing kits, while a botched roll-out of US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) testing, and strict criteria on who could be examined, caused a delay in testing.

The US has only been able to perform about 3,600 tests so far -- especially striking when compared to countries like South Korea and in Europe, where thousands of tests are being run daily.

The FDA commissioner initially said the US should be able to perform about 1 million tests by the end of this week -- but clarified later that there was a difference "between the ability to get the test kits out to the laboratories with the ability of the labs to actually do the tests."

Confusion between federal and state levels: There is also confusion around other federal policies, like quarantines and travel restrictions; the Trump administration announced new rules in early February, but offered few details, leaving local officials scrambling to figure it out. San Antonio, Texas has even filed a lawsuit against the federal government over a disagreement in quarantine protocol.

Among citizens, anxiety over the virus appears to be rising. Face masks and hand sanitizer have sold out in many places; one California woman told CNN she visited 15 stores over two days, only to find a single box of masks available.

[Balta1701]

17 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

By the way, does anyone know the commercial cost of those coronavirus test kits if you don’t have health insurance?

As far as Greg’s question, we are able to order SOME basic staple foods online and then they get delivered to our apartment gates within a matter of 1-3 days.

I’d just say to make sure to have all the meds you need, at least two weeks’ food and dietary needs, bottled water...toilet paper and hand sanitizers and N-95 masks are probably the three items where there are runs on them and shortages/price increases.

Depends on the place but I've read something like $1500. So if you're sick, you're better off just going to work if you don't have insurance, as the system wants. 

[bmags]

Why is bottled water a necessity?

[Balta1701]

18 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

By the way, does anyone know the commercial cost of those coronavirus test kits if you don’t have health insurance?

As far as Greg’s question, we are able to order SOME basic staple foods online and then they get delivered to our apartment gates within a matter of 1-3 days.

I’d just say to make sure to have all the meds you need, at least two weeks’ food and dietary needs, bottled water...toilet paper and hand sanitizers and N-95 masks are probably the three items where there are runs on them and shortages/price increases.

Technically the average person should not be purchasing an N-95 mask right now either. Maybe once supplies are high enough. The average person should also not be purchasing those if they haven't explicitly been fitted for them.

[mqr]

Idk how anyone is focusing on literally anything else right now, not a fun time to have an anxiety disorder.

Edited March 5, 2020 by mqr

[greg775]

1 hour ago, mqr said:

Idk how anyone is focusing on literally anything else right now, not a fun time to have an anxiety disorder.

I don't know. I'm so skeptical about governments these days and everything the only person I trust about this is Caulfield. It doesn't seem like this is that big a problem (yet?). Kansas has no cases. I think Kansas City has no cases. There are not many in other states.

[caulfield12]

22 minutes ago, greg775 said:

I don't know. I'm so skeptical about governments these days and everything the only person I trust about this is Caulfield. It doesn't seem like this is that big a problem (yet?). Kansas has no cases. I think Kansas City has no cases. There are not many in other states.

The situation has been handled extremely well here...after 4-6 weeks of government coverups, lol.   The problem is the US doesn’t have a population that will easily accept losing their freedoms (people here invariably live in gated apartment communities with CCTV surveillance ubiquitous), the culture of working or not going to the doctor unless you’re basically on the precipice of dying prevails...and the country is so difficult to unite behind a common cause when it has been so terribly divided, which goes all the way back to 2006.   Those three factors make the ultimate outcome such a great unknown.   The government here in the very beginning decided to make treatment free (but only if you test positively for the virus.)  On the US side, it often seems the focus is just as much on potential profits for drug vaccine and private test kit companies as general public health...whereas the Chinese idea is always focusing on courage, sacrifice and patriotism.   Basically, both systems have terrible flaws in dealing with a situation like this.  My wife saw a video that’s circulating online of some dude basically demanding an apology or reparations from China...I tried to tell her that having these wild animal markets that sell endangered species for questionable benefits in Chinese Traditional Medicine and just as “culinary delicacies” would never happen in America.  In the end, undoubtedly, some Americans will believe it was manufactured by the government here and accidentally or even intentionally released.   In the end, we’re a truly globalized tribe...her retort was “what about H1N1?” as she blamed that on the US and not Mexico.  Everyone sees what they want to see.  Confirmation bias.

Edited March 5, 2020 by caulfield12

[mqr]

18 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

The situation has been handled extremely well here...after 4-6 weeks of government coverups, lol.   The problem is the US doesn’t have a population that will easily accept losing their freedoms (people here invariably live in gated apartment communities with CCTV surveillance ubiquitous), the culture of working or not going to the doctor unless you’re basically on the precipice of dying prevails...and the country is so difficult to unite behind a common cause when it has been so terribly divided, which goes all the way back to 2006.   Those three factors make the ultimate outcome such a great unknown.   The government here in the very beginning decided to make treatment free (but only if you test positively for the virus.)  On the US side, it often seems the focus is just as much on potential profits for drug vaccine and private test kit companies as general public health...whereas the Chinese idea is always focusing on courage, sacrifice and patriotism.   Basically, both systems have terrible flaws in dealing with a situation like this.  My wife saw a video that’s circulating online of some dude basically demanding an apology or reparations from China...I tried to tell her that having these wild animal markets that sell endangered species for questionable benefits in Chinese Traditional Medicine and just as “culinary delicacies” would never happen in America.  In the end, undoubtedly, some Americans will believe it was manufactured by the government here and accidentally or even intentionally released.   In the end, we’re a truly globalized tribe...her retort was “what about H1N1?” as she blamed that on the US and not Mexico.  Everyone sees what they want to see.  Confirmation bias.

Yeah for better or worse the US response is going to be totally different. I think I know which one I’d bet on

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Tony said:

This is incredibly terrifying for like 1000 different reasons. 

Here’s three people who are very knowledgeable on this, and each represent different positions/viewpoints.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, Dr. Sanjay Gupta and Laurie Garrett.

Listening to politicians on either side of this doesn’t do much good.   What do want me to say?  I haven’t left my apartment since the 23rd of January.

Can you even imagine that?  Can any American?

And we’re still at least 2-3 weeks out before they will contemplate essential workers returning.   Even Hong Kong, with more or less 100 cases, has pushed back classes until April 19th.

Can you imagine your kid not actually going to school once from January 8th or 9th until April or May?

Working at home/online that entire time while trying to manage a five year old who’s bored out of his mind...looking outside and seeing spring weather but trapped or imprisoned?

No Americans are so willing to surrender their freedom/s.  If I went out without a mask on, I would probably last for 2-3 minutes before authorities showed up and forced me into a quarantine center with hundreds of other strangers...where I would have one doctor, two nurses, mo medicine, no working electricity and one shared/common bathroom for 800-1200 people.

 

That’s the harsh reality...and the testing there is so far behind or non-existent (South Korea can manage to test hundreds of thousands and even has improvised with “drive up” centers like a McDonald’s), there will likely be another Wuhan in Seattle or California or New York, simply because most people won’t react until it’s too late since there is so much conflicting information out there.

 

Edited March 5, 2020 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/california-man-self-quarantined-returning-173042979.html