COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[StrangeSox]

Thousands of Americans are dying every day. We'll be at 20,000+ a week by Christmas, and that'll just be the start of any infections driven by Thanksgiving. If contact tracing apps are what it takes to avoid mass death and deprivation, so be it. If actual lockdowns with actual enforcement (which occurred nowhere in the US) are what it takes, ok. The alternative is what we're barreling towards right now, which is a health care system so overwhelmed that it collapses in many cities around the country while the pandemic continues to grow.

1 minute ago, Danny Dravot said:

No way. Wear your mask, stay six feet apart, refrain from going to dine-in restaurants and bars, but no way am I going to demand that police imprison us in our homes and neighborhoods.

100,000 people are in hospitals with COVID right now. Officially, 270k are dead, most likely we're already decently above 300k. We'll break 500k by mid-winter, and while vaccines will be rolling out, there will still be a lot of pain to come at that point. Things are shut down, people are suffering, businesses are suffering, state and local governments are going to be decimated. This is how already burnt-out, PTSD suffering medical staff are preparing for what's coming:

Meanwhile, an old college buddy's brother just had his 100-person wedding in New Zealand last month without any concerns, though they did have to have an approved COVID safety plan in place.

[ron883]

Imagine defending how China handled covid. Just lol.

 

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, Yearnin' for Yermin said:

Imagine defending how China handled covid. Just lol.

 

I figured Trump would be the last...

[ron883]

2 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

Thousands of Americans are dying every day. We'll be at 20,000+ a week by Christmas, and that'll just be the start of any infections driven by Thanksgiving. If contact tracing apps are what it takes to avoid mass death and deprivation, so be it. If actual lockdowns with actual enforcement (which occurred nowhere in the US) are what it takes, ok. The alternative is what we're barreling towards right now, which is a health care system so overwhelmed that it collapses in many cities around the country while the pandemic continues to grow.

100,000 people are in hospitals with COVID right now. Officially, 270k are dead, most likely we're already decently above 300k. We'll break 500k by mid-winter, and while vaccines will be rolling out, there will still be a lot of pain to come at that point. Things are shut down, people are suffering, businesses are suffering, state and local governments are going to be decimated. This is how already burnt-out, PTSD suffering medical staff are preparing for what's coming:

Meanwhile, an old college buddy's brother just had his 100-person wedding in New Zealand last month without any concerns, though they did have to have an approved COVID safety plan in place.

New Zealand is an island with a population half the size of the Chicago metro area. Using them as an example of how the US should have done things is laughable 

 

[StrangeSox]

3 minutes ago, Yearnin' for Yermin said:

Imagine defending how China handled covid. Just lol.

 

Yeah, what sort of idiot country gets 86k cases of COVID, just lol.

 

1 minute ago, Yearnin' for Yermin said:

New Zealand is an island with a population half the size of the Chicago metro area. Using them as an example of how the US should have done things is laughable 

 

They are one of many countries that handled this in a way I'd say is "pretty good." 

[Danny Dravot]

2 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

Thousands of Americans are dying every day. We'll be at 20,000+ a week by Christmas, and that'll just be the start of any infections driven by Thanksgiving. If contact tracing apps are what it takes to avoid mass death and deprivation, so be it. If actual lockdowns with actual enforcement (which occurred nowhere in the US) are what it takes, ok. The alternative is what we're barreling towards right now, which is a health care system so overwhelmed that it collapses in many cities around the country while the pandemic continues to grow.

100,000 people are in hospitals with COVID right now. Officially, 270k are dead, most likely we're already decently above 300k. We'll break 500k by mid-winter, and while vaccines will be rolling out, there will still be a lot of pain to come at that point. Things are shut down, people are suffering, businesses are suffering, state and local governments are going to be decimated. This is how already burnt-out, PTSD suffering medical staff are preparing for what's coming:

Meanwhile, an old college buddy's brother just had his 100-person wedding in New Zealand last month without any concerns, though they did have to have an approved COVID safety plan in place.

Dude, I get it. It's a pandemic and it's bad. But I'm not going to welcome full-blown authoritarianism just so people can freely pack into wedding halls again. It's on us to do the right things as individuals and continue to do so until the vaccine is here.

[ron883]

Just now, StrangeSox said:

Yeah, what sort of idiot country gets 86k cases of COVID, just lol.

 

They are one of many countries that handled this in a way I'd say is "pretty good." 

What sort of idiot believes the numbers coming from China? You know, the country that is trying to hide their Uyghurian concentration camps from the world.

Surely they are being truthful about their covid numbers. 

[Danny Dravot]

Just now, StrangeSox said:

Yeah, what sort of idiot country gets 86k cases of COVID, just lol.

 

They are one of many countries that handled this in a way I'd say is "pretty good." 

You still didn't answer part of my question, which is- when would you stop? Do COVID deaths need to be zero before I can go to Mass again?

Conservatives have responded to this whole thing like idiots, and it pisses me off, but I'm still very wary of going whole-hog in your desired direction. There is a middle path.

[StrangeSox]

 

10 minutes ago, Danny Dravot said:

Dude, I get it. It's a pandemic and it's bad. But I'm not going to welcome full-blown authoritarianism just so people can freely pack into wedding halls again. It's on us to do the right things as individuals and continue to do so until the vaccine is here.

Public health crises require public policy measures, and relying on "do the right things as individuals" is basically an empty, meaningless statement. We see exactly how well that approach works compared to competent public responses. Many people have no choice but to go out and face exposure for their jobs every day in this country because there's no closures and no financial support otherwise. Others will disregard it and partake in activities that are still open.

I don't think the measures taken by many democracies to control this are "full blown authoritarianism." It's not "just so people can freely pack into wedding halls again," either. It's so there's not another three thousand dead people in this country today, tomorrow, the next day, and every day for the next month or two. It's so businesses like wedding halls can get back to functioning again. The countries that handled this well with strict, early containment are the ones with the least economic damage. They're the ones where their citizens can more or less live like normal again.

Are South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, and others now authoritarian states because they imposed temporary restrictions to control a deadly contagion?

 

5 minutes ago, Danny Dravot said:

You still didn't answer part of my question, which is- when would you stop? Do COVID deaths need to be zero before I can go to Mass again?

Conservatives have responded to this whole thing like idiots, and it pisses me off, but I'm still very wary of going whole-hog in your desired direction. There is a middle path.

Get community cases to zero again before you open'r up or you're doomed to repeat the cycle again. It's the path taken by many countries, including many democracies, who have managed to contain this and aren't facing increasing mass death.

For what it's worth, consider that the current ruling party in Australia is there conservative party. Same in Japan. This isn't some sort of lefty thing. It's a "competent government response to a major public health crisis" thing. The answer doesn't always lie in the middle of possible paths. Much of Europe tried more of the middle path. It didn't work.

Edited December 3, 2020 by StrangeSox

[StrangeSox]

3 minutes ago, Yearnin' for Yermin said:

What sort of idiot believes the numbers coming from China? You know, the country that is trying to hide their Uyghurian concentration camps from the world.

Surely they are being truthful about their covid numbers. 

What sort of idiot insists without any evidence and in contradiction with numerous international experts that COVID is obviously much worse in China and they haven't actually controlled things?

Double, triple, add a factor of ten to their numbers and they're still far better off than most other places and certainly much better than a majority of the world today. If there were still unchecked spread there, there'd be information leaking out and epideologists and other experts around the world would be sounding alarm bells. They aren't. There isn't uncontrolled spread in China right now.

[southsider2k5]

Because our idiot President decided that his method of attacking this was to pretend it didn't exist, we never got to the stage where we really tested civil rights of a lot of these proposed maneuvers, because this nation can't even agree that COVID is a real problem.  But I really don't think you would have gotten away with locking people in their homes for months, instituting mandatory checkpoints all over the country to stop people from moving from street to street and neighborhood to neighborhood, as well as forcing them to own tracking devices, all with the threat of imprisonment in the US.  These ideas would have never survived conservative court challenges. You can point to other countries as much as you want, but none of them have our constitution or legal system.  I mean there are cases of forced business closings being thrown out in state courts, how do you think any of this stuff would have flown in a constitutional sense here?

Obviously these methods would have controlled numbers better, but at the same time, if it isn't legal, it isn't going to fly.  The biggest failure in the US was to sell this as another WW2 or 9/11 and try to unite the country behind the message that this was not only the right thing to do, it was the patriotic thing to do.  Instead our idiot in chief used it as a wedge issue.

[Danny Dravot]

5 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

Public health crises require public policy measures, and relying on "do the right things as individuals" is basically an empty, meaningless statement. We see exactly how well that approach works compared to competent public responses. Many people have no choice but to go out and face exposure for their jobs every day in this country because there's no closures and no financial support otherwise. Others will disregard it and partake in activities that are still open.

I don't think the measures taken by many democracies to control this are "full blown authoritarianism." It's not "just so people can freely pack into wedding halls again," either. It's so there's not another three thousand dead people in this country today, tomorrow, the next day, and every day for the next month or two. It's so businesses like wedding halls can get back to functioning again. The countries that handled this well with strict, early containment are the ones with the least economic damage. They're the ones where their citizens can more or less live like normal again.

Are South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, and others now authoritarian states because they imposed temporary restrictions to control a deadly contagion?

I've been working on COVID response for months. In a task force of 2,000 people or so, we've had about 50 confirmed diagnoses. No hospitalizations. We wear masks, we have rearranged our offices deliberately to allow for social distancing, and we are out dealing with this every day. I don't want another stimulus check- I want to continue doing what I'm doing. If some idiot in his college town wants to go to a kegger, I disapprove, but I'm not downloading a GPS app on my phone because he happens to be a moron. I'll take care of my family, you do the same with yours, and let the imbeciles take their risks and pay their price.

You still haven't told me when you'd stop. Zero deaths? Zero cases? COVID goes the way of small pox? I will continue to protect me and mine, but I am opposed to giving over control to the Andrew Cuomos of the world. I have no faith that such people will only take measures to stop the virus and not to further their own world view.

[StrangeSox]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Because our idiot President decided that his method of attacking this was to pretend it didn't exist, we never got to the stage where we really tested civil rights of a lot of these proposed maneuvers, because this nation can't even agree that COVID is a real problem.  But I really don't think you would have gotten away with locking people in their homes for months, instituting mandatory checkpoints all over the country to stop people from moving from street to street and neighborhood to neighborhood, as well as forcing them to own tracking devices, all with the threat of imprisonment in the US.  These ideas would have never survived conservative court challenges. You can point to other countries as much as you want, but none of them have our constitution or legal system.  I mean there are cases of forced business closings being thrown out in state courts, how do you think any of this stuff would have flown in a constitutional sense here?

Obviously these methods would have controlled numbers better, but at the same time, if it isn't legal, it isn't going to fly.  The biggest failure in the US was to sell this as another WW2 or 9/11 and try to unite the country behind the message that this was not only the right thing to do, it was the patriotic thing to do.  Instead our idiot in chief used it as a wedge issue.

Oh, I don't disagree with this at all. Our current political structure is a pile of suicide timebombs. This was one of them going off.

[Danny Dravot]

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Because our idiot President decided that his method of attacking this was to pretend it didn't exist, we never got to the stage where we really tested civil rights of a lot of these proposed maneuvers, because this nation can't even agree that COVID is a real problem.  But I really don't think you would have gotten away with locking people in their homes for months, instituting mandatory checkpoints all over the country to stop people from moving from street to street and neighborhood to neighborhood, as well as forcing them to own tracking devices, all with the threat of imprisonment in the US.  These ideas would have never survived conservative court challenges. You can point to other countries as much as you want, but none of them have our constitution or legal system.  I mean there are cases of forced business closings being thrown out in state courts, how do you think any of this stuff would have flown in a constitutional sense here?

Obviously these methods would have controlled numbers better, but at the same time, if it isn't legal, it isn't going to fly.  The biggest failure in the US was to sell this as another WW2 or 9/11 and try to unite the country behind the message that this was not only the right thing to do, it was the patriotic thing to do.  Instead our idiot in chief used it as a wedge issue.

I agree with this entirely (although if I'm reading the tone right, I do believe those ideas never SHOULD have survived conservative court challenges, either). Trump should have encouraged people to do their duty, and while, yeah, some immature people would have continued being reckless idiots, it would have been much better if half the country didn't believe this to be fake.

[StrangeSox]

8 minutes ago, Danny Dravot said:

I've been working on COVID response for months. In a task force of 2,000 people or so, we've had about 50 confirmed diagnoses. No hospitalizations. We wear masks, we have rearranged our offices deliberately to allow for social distancing, and we are out dealing with this every day. I don't want another stimulus check- I want to continue doing what I'm doing. If some idiot in his college town wants to go to a kegger, I disapprove, but I'm not downloading a GPS app on my phone because he happens to be a moron. I'll take care of my family, you do the same with yours, and let the imbeciles take their risks and pay their price.

You still haven't told me when you'd stop. Zero deaths? Zero cases? COVID goes the way of small pox? I will continue to protect me and mine, but I am opposed to giving over control to the Andrew Cuomos of the world. I have no faith that such people will only take measures to stop the virus and not to further their own world view.

Zero community spread, like the countries that have this under control, is where you stop. Cuomo is an example of an incompetent governor who did very little and at times actively undermined an appropriate response. 

I can't take care of my family without them being exposed to a deadly virus right now if we leave our house. What you do impacts your community around you when it comes to contagious diseases. This is why relying on "I take care of my family, you take care of yours" has lead to 270,000 dead Americans is less than a year, with hundreds of thousands more to come. It's why millions more are slipping into poverty. It's an approach completely doomed to failure.

Some people will have to work, of course. Especially people doing COVID response, or providing (actually) essential services. But right now, restaurants and bars should be shut down, and we shouldn't be dooming their employees and owners to destitution for situations far beyond their individual control. The same goes for many other sectors of the economy. 

 

Countries that have limited the human and economic damage took strong measures. Countries that are suffering roiling health crises and substantial economic impact didn't. Both categories include autocracies, single-party "democracies," and actual democratic states. I know which option I'd take.

5 minutes ago, Danny Dravot said:

I agree with this entirely (although if I'm reading the tone right, I do believe those ideas never SHOULD have survived conservative court challenges, either). Trump should have encouraged people to do their duty, and while, yeah, some immature people would have continued being reckless idiots, it would have been much better if half the country didn't believe this to be fake.

Much of our economy is service sector or retail and it's in-person. Tens of millions can't stay home if they want to pay the rent and put food on the table. Absent a strong federal response including financial support, a whole lot of people couldn't do the right thing and stay home until the virus was squashed. They were put in a position to make the least bad choice of bad choices. That's what failure to have sufficient public health crisis response gets you. That, and hundreds of thousands of deaths.

 

 

edit: basically just going in circles at this point, so bottom line, yes we absolutely should have taken strict lockdown measures that were actually enforced from the start and we'd all be much better off and a couple hundred thousand people wouldn't be dead right now.

Edited December 3, 2020 by StrangeSox

[Danny Dravot]

4 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

Much of our economy is service sector or retail and it's in-person. Tens of millions can't stay home if they want to pay the rent and put food on the table. Absent a strong federal response including financial support, a whole lot of people couldn't do the right thing and stay home until the virus was squashed. They were put in a position to make the least bad choice of bad choices. That's what failure to have sufficient public health crisis response gets you. That, and hundreds of thousands of deaths.

Correct. So wear masks properly, wash your hands, don't touch your face, keep your distance, and get back to work. 

[StrangeSox]

2 minutes ago, Danny Dravot said:

Correct. So wear masks properly, wash your hands, don't touch your face, keep your distance, and get back to work. 

Which spreads disease and death. Masks and distancing reduce probability; they are not magical rituals that offer perfect protection. Washing your hands and not touching your face is a good idea, but this is primarily spread in the air, not via surfaces. 

How do places like bars and restaurants or other social activities "get back to work" at anything like normal capacity that can actually pay the bills and staff people?

Edited December 3, 2020 by StrangeSox

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, Danny Dravot said:

Correct. So wear masks properly, wash your hands, don't touch your face, keep your distance, and get back to work. 

Static air supply is such a HUGE part of this.  The longer you are in a public setting with the same people, the better your odds of catching this are, mask or no mask.

[Danny Dravot]

9 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

Which spreads disease and death. Masks and distancing reduce probability; they are not magical rituals that offer perfect protection. Washing your hands and not touching your face is a good idea, but this is primarily spread in the air, not via surfaces. 

How do places like bars and restaurants or other social activities "get back to work" at anything like normal capacity that can actually pay the bills and staff people?

You want a perfect answer. There is no perfect answer.

Restaurants? Outdoor dining and/or takeout only. Some staff are going to get let go. Bars? Have a patio? Lucky you. If not, close it. Layoffs will occur here too.

For those who are laid off, continue the expanded unemployment benefits. Let people apply for extra stimulus packages as needed. I appreciate receiving check number one because I have a very small business that took it on the chin when things first closed in March, and that helped make up for lost revenue, but I don't want, need, or deserve anything further. So let it happen on a case-by-case basis (where people have to prove lost income that's not already recomped by the aforementioned UI).

Edited December 3, 2020 by Danny Dravot

[southsider2k5]

 

[StrangeSox]

More than 1 out of every 1000 people in Illinois has died from COVID this year. We share this honor with 10 other states, and I'm sure more will be joining in soon.

Deaths per 1Mil
1 New Jersey 1,952
2 New York 1,785
3 Massachusetts 1,570
4 Connecticut 1,428
5 Louisiana 1,403
6 Rhode Island 1,322
7 Mississippi 1,303
8 North Dakota 1,282
9 South Dakota 1,168
10 Illinois 1,075
11 Michigan 1,005

[StrangeSox]

Going to put a positive spin on this and say, hey, it's a sign they're adhering to quality control measures at least.

 

[Dick Allen]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

Static air supply is such a HUGE part of this.  The longer you are in a public setting with the same people, the better your odds of catching this are, mask or mask.

I read where 10% of places generate 80% of cases. They are what we all know. Restaurants, bars, gyms, places of worship. All fit your description.

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, Dick Allen said:

I read where 10% of places generate 80% of cases. They are what we all know. Restaurants, bars, gyms, places of worship. All fit your description.

I am amazed at how many people I see at our casino on a daily basis.  Then again I guess if they knew how to play odds, they wouldn't be at a casino.

[Danny Dravot]

58 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I am amazed at how many people I see at our casino on a daily basis.  Then again I guess if they knew how to play odds, they wouldn't be at a casino.

I don't know the neighborhood at all, but Michigan City, IN, has a casino?