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COVID-19/Coronavirus thread


caulfield12

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24 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

 for reference I have zero need for this. If I can get the vaccine this will pay for a week in Maine this summer that I would probably do anyway. Might spend some extra at a few restaurants and hit up a Yankee game with that, but save 75%.

You are likely in the minority of current financial circumstances. Congrats.

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26 minutes ago, hi8is said:

You are likely in the minority of current financial circumstances. Congrats.

But, if it’s a substantial minority, shrinking that amount and providing longer expanded unemployment benefits or construction projects and aid to state and local governments that support and provide jobs would be a better use of the money than giving it to me, as I won’t spend it any time soon.

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21 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

But, if it’s a substantial minority, shrinking that amount and providing longer expanded unemployment benefits or construction projects and aid to state and local governments that support and provide jobs would be a better use of the money than giving it to me, as I won’t spend it any time soon.

Absolutely agree... all of the politics involved since the passage of the last bill have been woeful. Very sad to think that the elected officials are a representation of our countries best and brightest.

Just shows how broken our system is.

Cheers.

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Out of curiosity, I'd be interested if people could quote the below and add their thoughts on what there should be more of and what there should be less of.

This is the most recent bill that has been agreed to, sans additional $1400 per person

+++++++++++++
Direct Payments - $166 billion (Increase/Decrease)
- $600/pp in household (including dependents). Family of four $2,400
- Phases out at 75k
- Uses 2019 income

Jobless Aid - $120 billion (Increase/Decrease)
- $300/wk supplement to state unemployment insurance
- Extends jobless benefits from 26 to 50
- $300/wk supplement ends March

Rental Assistance - $25 billion (increase/decrease)
- Extends federal eviction prohibition to 1/31
- Provides assistance to renters in arrears, applied for by landlord

Childcare - $10.25 billion (increase/decrease)
- $10 billion in grants for child care providers
- $25 million for head start program

Schools - $82 billion (increase / decrease)
- $54 billion for K-12 schools
- $22 billion for higher ed/private
- $1.7 billion for HBCUs

Covid-19 Mitigation: Vaccines / Test & Trace - $53 billion (increase / decrease)
 - Money to states for testing and tracing programs and covid-19 mitigation
 - $2.5 specifically earmarked for rural and communities of color with higher hit disparities
- $20 billion to BARDA for vaccine distribution
- $9 billion to CDC
- State and federal funding for vaccine distribution

Airlines - $15 billion (increase / decrease)
- Covers airlines to march
- Brings 30k+ airline workers and contracters back to work that were furloughed in October

Banks - $12 Billion (increase/decrease)
- Provides $12 billion to small lenders focused on low-income and minority communities including buttressing minority-owned banks

Save our Stages (independent venues) - $15 billion (increase/decrease)
- Money to assist theaters, music venues and cultural institutions

Farms - $12 billion (increase/decrease)
- Targeted at farms that served restaurants and have had to plow over fields of crops

Rail and Transit - ~$25 billion (increase/decrease)
- Money for Amtrack and local bus/subway systems who have been hit from lack of ridership

Small Businesses - $325 billion (increase/decrease)
- PPP rounds for small businesses to cover rent/payroll
- Allows businesses to claim deductions on federal assistance in 2020, saving estimated $200 billion for small businesses

USPS - $10 billion (increase/decrease)
- $10 billion infusion to cover additional resources needed, restructure what USPS needs to pay

Taxes - no estimate
- Extends tax credits to employers for keeping employees from CARES Act
- Tax considerations to ensure changes of income in 2020 don't affect some eligibility for certain tax benefits
- Allows businesses to deduct business meals
- Extends federal grants for renewable energy
 

+++++++

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9 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

 for reference I have zero need for this. If I can get the vaccine this will pay for a week in Maine this summer that I would probably do anyway. Might spend some extra at a few restaurants and hit up a Yankee game with that, but save 75%.

If you don't need it, you could donate it to someone or an organization who does.

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54 minutes ago, bmags said:

Out of curiosity, I'd be interested if people could quote the below and add their thoughts on what there should be more of and what there should be less of.

This is the most recent bill that has been agreed to, sans additional $1400 per person

+++++++++++++
Direct Payments - $166 billion (Increase/Decrease)
- $600/pp in household (including dependents). Family of four $2,400
- Phases out at 75k
- Uses 2019 income

Jobless Aid - $120 billion (Increase/Decrease)
- $300/wk supplement to state unemployment insurance
- Extends jobless benefits from 26 to 50
- $300/wk supplement ends March

Rental Assistance - $25 billion (increase/decrease)
- Extends federal eviction prohibition to 1/31
- Provides assistance to renters in arrears, applied for by landlord

Childcare - $10.25 billion (increase/decrease)
- $10 billion in grants for child care providers
- $25 million for head start program

Schools - $82 billion (increase / decrease)
- $54 billion for K-12 schools
- $22 billion for higher ed/private
- $1.7 billion for HBCUs

Covid-19 Mitigation: Vaccines / Test & Trace - $53 billion (increase / decrease)
 - Money to states for testing and tracing programs and covid-19 mitigation
 - $2.5 specifically earmarked for rural and communities of color with higher hit disparities
- $20 billion to BARDA for vaccine distribution
- $9 billion to CDC
- State and federal funding for vaccine distribution

Airlines - $15 billion (increase / decrease)
- Covers airlines to march
- Brings 30k+ airline workers and contracters back to work that were furloughed in October

Banks - $12 Billion (increase/decrease)
- Provides $12 billion to small lenders focused on low-income and minority communities including buttressing minority-owned banks

Save our Stages (independent venues) - $15 billion (increase/decrease)
- Money to assist theaters, music venues and cultural institutions

Farms - $12 billion (increase/decrease)
- Targeted at farms that served restaurants and have had to plow over fields of crops

Rail and Transit - ~$25 billion (increase/decrease)
- Money for Amtrack and local bus/subway systems who have been hit from lack of ridership

Small Businesses - $325 billion (increase/decrease)
- PPP rounds for small businesses to cover rent/payroll
- Allows businesses to claim deductions on federal assistance in 2020, saving estimated $200 billion for small businesses

USPS - $10 billion (increase/decrease)
- $10 billion infusion to cover additional resources needed, restructure what USPS needs to pay

Taxes - no estimate
- Extends tax credits to employers for keeping employees from CARES Act
- Tax considerations to ensure changes of income in 2020 don't affect some eligibility for certain tax benefits
- Allows businesses to deduct business meals
- Extends federal grants for renewable energy
 

+++++++

I think the direct payments should definitely be higher. I don't know if they have to be $2000 but $600 doesn't get you very far. I think the Unemployment supplement should be at least $450. You max out in IL at under $500 a week. Lots of people out of work with families, mortgages,  car payments and other bills. Kind of hard to make it work at under $800 a week. And there should be more for small businesses. Restaurants have been screwed. I don't understand why the tax break for business lunches was added. Pretty stupid. Maybe that is a bone to some restaurants, but not the majority. 

Edited by Dick Allen
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Ya, I really wish they'd raise that unemployment supplement for the people that are still out of work.  I was laid off for about 4 months and that extra 600 was a legit life saver and I only received it for about 2 of those months.  When the actual unemployment payment is so low an extra 300 while obviously nice is only going to get you so far.

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9 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

 for reference I have zero need for this. If I can get the vaccine this will pay for a week in Maine this summer that I would probably do anyway. Might spend some extra at a few restaurants and hit up a Yankee game with that, but save 75%.

We're heading to Maine this summer also. Schoodic Peninsula and Bar Harbor primarily. 

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While I disagree with most everything he has done from a policy standpoint and a basic human decency point, but I do appreciate the showmanship in him. Barnum and Bailey combined had nothing on him. I really hoped he poured himself a very expensive drink from the White House bar and laughed his ass off as he was tweeting last night. As a hustler, showman, and huckster he's a hall of fame guy. 

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10 minutes ago, Texsox said:

We're heading to Maine this summer also. Schoodic Peninsula and Bar Harbor primarily. 

some of the best day hiking we've ever done!

 

9 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

But, if it’s a substantial minority, shrinking that amount and providing longer expanded unemployment benefits or construction projects and aid to state and local governments that support and provide jobs would be a better use of the money than giving it to me, as I won’t spend it any time soon.

The federal government can afford to do both, so do both. 

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Just now, StrangeSox said:

some of the best day hiking we've ever done!

 

 

Same here plus it's amazing biking. The beaches are so different than along the Gulf. We've camped in Acadia in a tent, pop up, and our trailer. And Bar Harbor is one of my five favorite vacation towns with St, Charles Mo, Cody Wy, Santa Fe NM, and Terlingua, TX. We tend to rotate heading east with heading east. 

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3 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

some of the best day hiking we've ever done!

 

The federal government can afford to do both, so do both. 

Exactly. They could afford to give billionaires tax cuts on money they will never spend, they can afford to do enough for the people who need it.

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To balta's point, the push from progressives and some republicans was to increase the direct payments and it came at the cost of the UI.

I think UI was more important. $600 did a whole lot of good, but $450 covers up to 80% of income for people making up to 60k which is a good portion. Depends on states but it's around there. It also offers an increase in money for a good portion of that.

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48 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

I think the direct payments should definitely be higher. I don't know if they have to be $2000 but $600 doesn't get you very far. I think the Unemployment supplement should be at least $450. You max out in IL at under $500 a week. Lots of people out of work with families, mortgages,  car payments and other bills. Kind of hard to make it work at under $800 a week. And there should be more for small businesses. Restaurants have been screwed. I don't understand why the tax break for business lunches was added. Pretty stupid. Maybe that is a bone to some restaurants, but not the majority. 

It is an ineffective policy but it doesn't really cause harm. You are right that it probably doesn't help many, but perhaps more companies will cater and could help some.

But it was Trump's idea and the democrats accepted it in exchange for EITC expansion and other tax credits for low income.

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36 minutes ago, bmags said:

It is an ineffective policy but it doesn't really cause harm. You are right that it probably doesn't help many, but perhaps more companies will cater and could help some.

But it was Trump's idea and the democrats accepted it in exchange for EITC expansion and other tax credits for low income.

Just like with everything else, it will help the fancier restaurants most. Not many business lunches and dinners that need to be written off happen at the local diner.

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The fact that the stimulus qualifications stem from your 2019 income just sucks for me. I work in sales and my 2019 income was great so I didn't qualify for the stimulus check. My 2020 income has been horrendous and am in much need of any financial relief since I've pretty much only made my base pay since March...but of course I won't qualify for this next batch of checks either.

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9 minutes ago, kevo880 said:

The fact that the stimulus qualifications stem from your 2019 income just sucks for me. I work in sales and my 2019 income was great so I didn't qualify for the stimulus check. My 2020 income has been horrendous and am in much need of any financial relief since I've pretty much only made my base pay since March...but of course I won't qualify for this next batch of checks either.

I've had a couple people tell me that the amount you receive is based on your 2019 income but the amount you're entitled to is based on your 2020 income, so if your 2020 income is lower you will get the rest of it when you file your 2020 return. Please check on that though because I've not seen anything official.

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1 hour ago, kevo880 said:

The fact that the stimulus qualifications stem from your 2019 income just sucks for me. I work in sales and my 2019 income was great so I didn't qualify for the stimulus check. My 2020 income has been horrendous and am in much need of any financial relief since I've pretty much only made my base pay since March...but of course I won't qualify for this next batch of checks either.

I believe there may be a way for you to get the money you deserve based on 2020 income. I will try and post it here when I have it.

Most likely the money won't be available until after you file 2020 return.

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5 hours ago, bmags said:

Out of curiosity, I'd be interested if people could quote the below and add their thoughts on what there should be more of and what there should be less of.

This is the most recent bill that has been agreed to, sans additional $1400 per person

+++++++++++++
Direct Payments - $166 billion (Increase/Decrease)
- $600/pp in household (including dependents). Family of four $2,400
- Phases out at 75k
- Uses 2019 income

Jobless Aid - $120 billion (Increase/Decrease)
- $300/wk supplement to state unemployment insurance
- Extends jobless benefits from 26 to 50
- $300/wk supplement ends March

Rental Assistance - $25 billion (increase/decrease)
- Extends federal eviction prohibition to 1/31
- Provides assistance to renters in arrears, applied for by landlord

Childcare - $10.25 billion (increase/decrease)
- $10 billion in grants for child care providers
- $25 million for head start program

Schools - $82 billion (increase / decrease)
- $54 billion for K-12 schools
- $22 billion for higher ed/private
- $1.7 billion for HBCUs

Covid-19 Mitigation: Vaccines / Test & Trace - $53 billion (increase / decrease)
 - Money to states for testing and tracing programs and covid-19 mitigation
 - $2.5 specifically earmarked for rural and communities of color with higher hit disparities
- $20 billion to BARDA for vaccine distribution
- $9 billion to CDC
- State and federal funding for vaccine distribution

Airlines - $15 billion (increase / decrease)
- Covers airlines to march
- Brings 30k+ airline workers and contracters back to work that were furloughed in October

Banks - $12 Billion (increase/decrease)
- Provides $12 billion to small lenders focused on low-income and minority communities including buttressing minority-owned banks

Save our Stages (independent venues) - $15 billion (increase/decrease)
- Money to assist theaters, music venues and cultural institutions

Farms - $12 billion (increase/decrease)
- Targeted at farms that served restaurants and have had to plow over fields of crops

Rail and Transit - ~$25 billion (increase/decrease)
- Money for Amtrack and local bus/subway systems who have been hit from lack of ridership

Small Businesses - $325 billion (increase/decrease)
- PPP rounds for small businesses to cover rent/payroll
- Allows businesses to claim deductions on federal assistance in 2020, saving estimated $200 billion for small businesses

USPS - $10 billion (increase/decrease)
- $10 billion infusion to cover additional resources needed, restructure what USPS needs to pay

Taxes - no estimate
- Extends tax credits to employers for keeping employees from CARES Act
- Tax considerations to ensure changes of income in 2020 don't affect some eligibility for certain tax benefits
- Allows businesses to deduct business meals
- Extends federal grants for renewable energy
 

+++++++

All right I'll have at you.

First point - back in the beforeforetimes, I once had a debate here over the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. A pair of posters here who I will not call out by name said that adding so much money to the debt in that bailout would trigger widespread inflation and that would in the end damage the economy. I countered with several points - that the hole blown in the economy was so large that $800 billion wouldn't fill it, that even if it did fill it the Federal Reserve has plenty of power available to fight inflation if it were to occur, and that the risks of it being too small were far larger than the risks of it being too big.

What happened? The ARRA stopped the bleeding of jobs in 2009, but was not big enough to dig out of the hole. Instead, it took the country nearly a decade to return to anything close to full unemployment and the feared inflation was so under control that the Federal Reserve actually can't get the inflation rate high enough. 

In other words, in any case like this of economic crisis, it is always better for your bailout to be too big than too small. If your bailout is too small, your country will take years, perhaps decades to return to full employment - for the US this will cost trillions of dollars in economic activity. If your bailout is too big, your economy grows rapidly, you return to full employment rapidly, and the Central Bank has to raise interest rates to slow growth - with millions more people employed and jobs getting better. Furthermore, if the Central Bank has to raise rates, it gets the rates above the limit of rates having to stay above zero - this would give the Central Bank more power to respond to the next crisis. There are limits of course - a $50 trillion bailout would produce other problems, but if the right amount is $2 trillion, you are better off being at $3 trillion than $1 trillion.


Many of those I can't comment on but I'm going to focus on a few. Unemployment - the extra benefit could be larger and it could be made retroactive to August when the last bonus ended. That will put money into the hands of people who were unemployed over that time. 

Obviously I also oppose the means testing of the checks for reasons people have described here. I think a larger number would be nice, but the unemployment benefits are more important.

I can comment readily on higher education having been in that field. In the US, Higher Education is roughly a $600 billion industry per year, and it's receiving about $20 billion, so 3.5% of its budget. With just the costs of PPP and new computing supplies alone, many schools blew well past that. Especially if the economy remains weak for the next several years where people are going to want to go to schools to develop new skills, having universities cutting programs to save money will be an issue. Some universities can borrow against endowments, but most schools do not have large ones. I think if that were twice as large, it would still fail to offset many of the costs in that industry this year.

The PPP at $325 billion should be larger. THis is the 3rd installment on the PPP I believe, and each time it is drained in only a couple of months - meaning the demand is far larger than $325 billion. Some of that is of course Jared Kushner and other very big businesses needing to take his piece off the top, but that program should have been far larger.

I think it's been noted above that the hospitality (restaurant and bar) industry hasn't gotten anything, even though they get some PPP that is an industry that should have received significant targeted support and it does not.

Finally - aid to state and local governments. This is not in the bill because Republicans constantly oppose it, and in reality it should be a huge slice. Much of that goes to police, fire, teachers, and construction, this year's sales tax numbers will be in the toilet with so many businesses unable to open, so whether it's a small town in texas or los angeles, everyone's in trouble. Although this does effectively "Defund police" because they will get some cuts, we saw the end result of this refusal in 2010 - slow private sector job growth, but overall job growth is stalled because public sector jobs spent years being cut. This will be a drag on employment nationwide for years.

I am not well calibrated on many of the other industries, but even without them I think I've basically just doubled the size of the bill.

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