COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[Balta1701]

On 3/3/2020 at 8:44 AM, caulfield12 said:

How did they go from just a few hundred being tested to one million by this Friday?

Any basis in reality?

Quote

Through interviews with dozens of public-health officials and a survey of local data from across the country, The Atlantic could only verify that 1,895 people have been tested for the coronavirus in the United States, about 10 percent of whom have tested positive. And while the American capacity to test for the coronavirus has ramped up significantly over the past few days, local officials can still test only several thousand people a day, not the tens or hundreds of thousands indicated by the White House’s promises.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-many-americans-have-been-tested-coronavirus/607597/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share

 

We're going to be the #2 country in the world for cases by the time testing catches up.

[caulfield12]

https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/03/06/anthony-fauci-millions-of-tests-coronavirus-town-hall-sot-vpx.cnn

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, says there were missteps in regards to the CDC's initials tests for coronavirus and that he believes "millions and millions of tests" will be needed.

Source: CNN

 

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/05/coronavirus-drug-industry-prices-122412

 

Edited March 6, 2020 by caulfield12

[Panerista]

21 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Here’s three people who are very knowledgeable on this, and each represent different positions/viewpoints.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, Dr. Sanjay Gupta and Laurie Garrett.

Listening to politicians on either side of this doesn’t do much good.   What do want me to say?  I haven’t left my apartment since the 23rd of January.

Can you even imagine that?  Can any American?

And we’re still at least 2-3 weeks out before they will contemplate essential workers returning.   Even Hong Kong, with more or less 100 cases, has pushed back classes until April 19th.

Can you imagine your kid not actually going to school once from January 8th or 9th until April or May?

Working at home/online that entire time while trying to manage a five year old who’s bored out of his mind...looking outside and seeing spring weather but trapped or imprisoned?

No Americans are so willing to surrender their freedom/s.  If I went out without a mask on, I would probably last for 2-3 minutes before authorities showed up and forced me into a quarantine center with hundreds of other strangers...where I would have one doctor, two nurses, mo medicine, no working electricity and one shared/common bathroom for 800-1200 people.

 

That’s the harsh reality...and the testing there is so far behind or non-existent (South Korea can manage to test hundreds of thousands and even has improvised with “drive up” centers like a McDonald’s), there will likely be another Wuhan in Seattle or California or New York, simply because most people won’t react until it’s too late since there is so much conflicting information out there.

 

I agree to some extent there is a possibility Seattle or somewhere in California becomes the next Wuhan, but it's hard to measure the degree to which the Chinese cover-up lead to Wuhan outpacing the rest of China. Basically, I don't know that there will be another Wuhan.

Edited March 6, 2020 by Eloy Jiménez

[mqr]

18 minutes ago, Eloy Jiménez said:

I agree to some extent there is a possibility Seattle or somewhere in California becomes the next Wuhan, but it's hard to measure the degree to which the Chinese cover-up lead to Wuhan outpacing the rest of China. Basically, I don't know that there will be another Wuhan.

The US is basically doing the same thing with it's lack of testing. 

[Panerista]

1 minute ago, mqr said:

The US is basically doing the same thing with it's lack of testing. 

Like I said, I don't know. No one really does.

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, mqr said:

The US is basically doing the same thing with it's lack of testing. 

One difference is that the US is actually recommending people stay home if they're sick and wash their hands. Even minor stuff like that can make a large difference compared to no response at all. I've seen published reports where effective handwashing can cut the spreading rate by 50%. 

I think most would say the US in these areas right now is probably comparable to where Wuhan was right around New Years - lots of people infected, on the verge of it going much larger. The limited things the local governments are doing will slow it down somewhat, but the lack of national action to limit travel could make it balloon very soon.

I'm in Texas, all my students head out on spring break next week, and South by Southwest is still happening in Austin, even though some of the major corporate exhibitors have pulled out. The city can't afford to lose an event that brings in half a billion dollars or so a year, and it's a perfect disease transmission setting. Things like that could quite easily counter-act any steps taken by the local authorities in Washington and California.

Notably - the University of Washington just closed its doors for a month starting on Monday.

[mqr]

SXSW just got canceled. Big time Holy Shit moment.

[caulfield12]

There was a lot of pushback on both sides of that SXSW argument.

Until they have enough test kits distributed, we won’t know the full effect...and, even then, many people will be asymptomatic carriers/spreaders but not tested or reflected in the numbers.   What about all the people who are sick but underinsured and afraid of hospitalization costs that definitely aren’t going to be covered?

One of the nursing home deaths in Kirkland isn’t reflected because she hadn’t been tested and the daughter wanted to have it done posthumously.  We had/have many deaths here in China that weren’t reflected in official stats but go down as pneumonia or flu instead.  As of last night, nobody inside that center...staff or residents, had been tested.

You’ve also got another yet cruise ship issue.

Right now, the death rate seems abnormally high compared to even Wuhan (3-4%) because not enough testing has been done yet....so those denominator numbers are lower in the formula.  But, as mentioned above, they’re already missing some of the deaths in the very beginning stages as well.

Just in that two medical screeners at LAX have come down with the virus, which is also very scary in terms of community spread ramifications.

Finally, there’s lots of anecdotal evidence here that people can get sick twice...many of the released/recovered individuals still are unable to go home, or are even bring refused by their families who don’t believe or trust the doctors that their previously ill grandparents can return without getting children and grandchildren sick as a result.  

Edited March 6, 2020 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

3 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

One difference is that the US is actually recommending people stay home if they're sick and wash their hands. Even minor stuff like that can make a large difference compared to no response at all. I've seen published reports where effective handwashing can cut the spreading rate by 50%. 

I think most would say the US in these areas right now is probably comparable to where Wuhan was right around New Years - lots of people infected, on the verge of it going much larger. The limited things the local governments are doing will slow it down somewhat, but the lack of national action to limit travel could make it balloon very soon.

I'm in Texas, all my students head out on spring break next week, and South by Southwest is still happening in Austin, even though some of the major corporate exhibitors have pulled out. The city can't afford to lose an event that brings in half a billion dollars or so a year, and it's a perfect disease transmission setting. Things like that could quite easily counter-act any steps taken by the local authorities in Washington and California.

Notably - the University of Washington just closed its doors for a month starting on Monday.

The big difference is roughly five million out of an eleven million population left Wuhan (for Chinese New Year) from the end of December through the morning of January 23rd on planes, trains (Hankou Railway Station is literally 200 meters from the Huashan Animal market epicenter) and buses.   That was a huge factor.  They also held a public banquet on the 18th of January with over 40,000 attendees and 12,000+ shared dishes...trying to set a world record locally when Beijing already was well aware of the outbreak but didn’t want to create a public panic before the holidays.

Now it just came out that 19 crew members and two passengers out of the 46 they tested have the virus.  Only 3700 on board...that all have to be tested before they can disembark.  The problem is that 1/4th to 1/3rd of those people who pass the initial test...if this follows the trend...will end up developing and/or passing along the virus to others.

 

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-06/chaos-at-hospitals-due-to-shortage-of-coronavirus-tests

This pretty much encapsulates the width and breadth of the problem, and frustrations on the part of patients, doctors and nurses alike.

 

Edited March 6, 2020 by caulfield12

[Balta1701]

58 minutes ago, mqr said:

SXSW just got canceled. Big time Holy Shit moment.

Completely the right call even if it will probably put half the city out of business.

If we had a functioning federal government, it wouldn't be cities and businesses making these calls on their own. Austin can't print its own money to keep its local businesses afloat.

[Balta1701]

47 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Right now, the death rate seems abnormally high compared to even Wuhan (3-4%) because not enough testing has been done yet....so those denominator numbers are lower in the formula.  But, as mentioned above, they’re already missing some of the deaths in the very beginning stages as well.

If I've read the numbers correct there are something like 20 respirators per 100,000 people in this country. If you've got 100 seriously ill people in line waiting for those, then the death rate will be particularly high. If you're in a country that shuts itself down to slow how fast the cases develop, that knocks down the death rate because you can keep the seriously ill patients alive.

[caulfield12]

26 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If I've read the numbers correct there are something like 20 respirators per 100,000 people in this country. If you've got 100 seriously ill people in line waiting for those, then the death rate will be particularly high. If you're in a country that shuts itself down to slow how fast the cases develop, that knocks down the death rate because you can keep the seriously ill patients alive.

That’s exactly what happened with the construction of two new hospitals here in +/- 10 days.  To sequester those most serious cases as quickly as possible.

The obvious problem is that the “medium/moderate” and worst case scenarios leave our medical facilities woefully short in terms of equipment, beds and access to test kits.

And the average person here with the virus went through something like 4-6 tests on average.

[StrangeSox]

Ominous

 

 

[StrangeSox]

They're also just not gonna test the Washington cases any more because the CDC declared it endemic. So we'll have no real idea how many people are infected because we're just not going to bother testing 

 

https://www.evergreenhealth.com/community-message-3420

[ptatc]

16 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Completely the right call even if it will probably put half the city out of business.

If we had a functioning federal government, it wouldn't be cities and businesses making these calls on their own. Austin can't print its own money to keep its local businesses afloat.

Most likely the businesses will have income insurance when a good portion of their income comes from events that can be cancelled. Hopefully it will keep some from going under.

[mqr]

2 hours ago, StrangeSox said:

They're also just not gonna test the Washington cases any more because the CDC declared it endemic. So we'll have no real idea how many people are infected because we're just not going to bother testing 

 

https://www.evergreenhealth.com/community-message-3420

This is so fucked. It’s impossible to deny an active coverup at this point

[caulfield12]

5 hours ago, ptatc said:

Most likely the businesses will have income insurance when a good portion of their income comes from events that can be cancelled. Hopefully it will keep some from going under.

https://deadline.com/2020/03/sxsw-no-insurance-for-disease-outbreaks-1202876689/

[caulfield12]

6 hours ago, StrangeSox said:

They're also just not gonna test the Washington cases any more because the CDC declared it endemic. So we'll have no real idea how many people are infected because we're just not going to bother testing 

 

https://www.evergreenhealth.com/community-message-3420

If you don’t know how many are infected, and who, how the heck are they going to control the spread?

As the city of Wuhan looks to possibly reopen in April, there’s likely to be a “passcode” system through mobile phone apps to identify all those who are symptom free for at least two weeks before re/entering the city. 

South Korea and China both have numerous apps that can track in real time the cases around you, proximity, everyone traveling in and out by train/bus/plane that has a fever, etc.  Here, it’s almost impossible now to have what amounts to a burner phone, as everyone has their cell number connected to their national ID...which allows to government to exert more control but that tracking ability also comes in handy at a time like this.

Of course, as with any tech, there’s always going to be false positives or people who aren’t cleared due to an algorithm that should be more precise...but at least there’s an appeals process in place.

Strange that my co-workers who left China to places like Thailand, US, UK and Vietnam are likely to be caught up in another two week quarantine situation now coming back in. 
 

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3074087/never-mind-china-look-us-next-big-coronavirus

 

[caulfield12]

9 hours ago, StrangeSox said:

Ominous

 

 

https://www.seattlepi.com/coronavirus/article/Kent-to-file-restraining-order-against-King-15112086.php

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/06/coronavirus-testing-failure-123166

Edited March 7, 2020 by caulfield12

[ptatc]

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

https://deadline.com/2020/03/sxsw-no-insurance-for-disease-outbreaks-1202876689/

That's for the event not the businesses in the area.  The event coordinator was not very smart for not getting insurance also.

[Balta1701]

10 hours ago, ptatc said:

Most likely the businesses will have income insurance when a good portion of their income comes from events that can be cancelled. Hopefully it will keep some from going under.

Most likely the airlines will have good insurance and just because 4 planes were crashed into buildings doesn’t mean we will have them all go bankrupt if they’re not bailed out repeatedly.

 

2 hours ago, ptatc said:

That's for the event not the businesses in the area.  The event coordinator was not very smart for not getting insurance also.

I mean, every business should have known that when we elected a completely unprepared executive branch they would replace the CDC leadership and then stick their heads in the sand during an outbreak because the numbers going up would make them look bad, that was just obvious.

[caulfield12]

22 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Most likely the airlines will have good insurance and just because 4 planes were crashed into buildings doesn’t mean we will have them all go bankrupt if they’re not bailed out repeatedly.

 

I mean, every business should have known that when we elected a completely unprepared executive branch they would replace the CDC leadership and then stick their heads in the sand during an outbreak because the numbers going up would make them look bad, that was just obvious.

President Donald Trump, Vice President Mike Pence and other administration officials attended the conference, though the ACU says the attendee did not come into contact with the president or vice president, nor did they attend events in the main hall.

When asked by reporters if he was worried about being exposed to coronavirus after he attended CPAC, Trump said, "I'm not concerned at all."

Trump, who was speaking alongside Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro ahead of their dinner at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, also noted that the administration would not cancel any political rallies as the virus spreads. 

"We'll have tremendous rallies. We're doing very well. We've done a fantastic job, with respect to that subject, on the virus," Trump said.

www.cnn.com

 

 

Well, I guess we’re now in a situation where potentially 20+ died in this hotel/quarantine center collapse overnight here in China, so the focus will temporarily shift back to China and shoddy safety/construction standards.  Of course, there will probably be a coverup if that’s the case, just like a couple of high profile incidents/accidents with the high speed train network.

 

 

 

[Balta1701]

16 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

President Donald Trump, Vice President Mike Pence and other administration officials attended the conference, though the ACU says the attendee did not come into contact with the president or vice president, nor did they attend events in the main hall.

When asked by reporters if he was worried about being exposed to coronavirus after he attended CPAC, Trump said, "I'm not concerned at all."

Trump, who was speaking alongside Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro ahead of their dinner at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, also noted that the administration would not cancel any political rallies as the virus spreads. 

"We'll have tremendous rallies. We're doing very well. We've done a fantastic job, with respect to that subject, on the virus," Trump said.

www.cnn.com

 

 

Well, I guess we’re now in a situation where potentially 20+ died in this hotel/quarantine center collapse overnight here in China, so the focus will temporarily shift back to China and shoddy safety/construction standards.  Of course, there will probably be a coverup if that’s the case, just like a couple of high profile incidents/accidents with the high speed train network.

 

 

 

The US death toll is currently 19. When the death toll in Wuhan was 19, The first two emergency hospitals were under construction.

[Balta1701]

That. That is the winning metaphor for this s***show.

[Balta1701]

And in case people haven't seen this thread: