chw42 Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 8 minutes ago, mqr said: well this is bleak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 14 minutes ago, chw42 said: Until 4 years ago, you would bet every dollar you ever made a POTUS would never write something like that. Why he is making this political is really questionable. If he wasn’t so worried about the stock market in January and February he might have been able to pack the churches on his favorite holiday even though I doubt he would pass a quiz about what Easter is all about. What could go wrong? Who knew the virus would come back with a vengeance? At least we still have governors who know better and won’t follow his lead. He has to know that, so I guess he just wants to be able to blame the mostly democratic governors for people still staying home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texsox Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 His bunker mentality strategy is brilliant. It makes his followers feel smarter than anyone else. It's borderline cultish behavior but absolutely brilliant in it's execution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 6 minutes ago, Texsox said: His bunker mentality strategy is brilliant. It makes his followers feel smarter than anyone else. It's borderline cultish behavior but absolutely brilliant in it's execution. until they die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texsox Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 1 minute ago, Balta1701 said: until they die. Yep. But it will be their enemies fault as it happens . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted March 25, 2020 Author Share Posted March 25, 2020 Somehow, I can see Ivanka continuing to fool the male side of the Trump base, but not so sure she carries enough of a chip on her shoulder. Donald, Jr., is the one more desperate to continue the “legacy.” https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-22/coronavirus-outbreak-nobel-laureate This is a good article for those on the “earlier rather than 12 to 18 months” side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 14 minutes ago, Texsox said: His bunker mentality strategy is brilliant. It makes his followers feel smarter than anyone else. It's borderline cultish behavior but absolutely brilliant in it's execution. There's no "borderline" about it. There is a base within his support that is absolutely behaving like a cult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 9 minutes ago, NorthSideSox72 said: There's no "borderline" about it. There is a base within his support that is absolutely behaving like a cult. I feel like I am watching Jonestown happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: I feel like I am watching Jonestown happen. You know, if I'm being fair, there was certainly a portion of Obama's base that was also going to defend whatever he did. So what's different? Obama was never asking them to walk off a cliff like Trump is. Obama also never went after people hatefully as his example to those fervent supporters. And he actually embraced expertise and science. So where Obama certainly had his automotons thinking everything was rosy and great all the time (it wasn't) and Hope would make it all OK (it didn't), Trump's same group is reveling in ignorance and hate. That's the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, NorthSideSox72 said: You know, if I'm being fair, there was certainly a portion of Obama's base that was also going to defend whatever he did. So what's different? Obama was never asking them to walk off a cliff like Trump is. Obama also never went after people hatefully as his example to those fervent supporters. And he actually embraced expertise and science. So where Obama certainly had his automotons thinking everything was rosy and great all the time (it wasn't) and Hope would make it all OK (it didn't), Trump's same group is reveling in ignorance and hate. That's the difference. As someone who wasn't a huge Obama fan, it was nothing like this. Not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerksticks Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said: As someone who wasn't a huge Obama fan, it was nothing like this. Not even close. I think he just means blind support no matter what, even with the terrible. I’d say that’s pretty accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted March 25, 2020 Author Share Posted March 25, 2020 (edited) https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/03/25/coronavirus-economy-stimulus-house-democrats-148512 ‘Have We Learned Nothing?’ The Dems' Christmas-tree bailout pitch isn’t going anywhere, but tells us a lot about what we might be headed for. Edited March 25, 2020 by caulfield12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, Tony said: The problem is, or issue is right now it feels like he's the somewhat heavy favorite to win the 2020 election. His base, or supporters is terrifying large. Not a chance. He was already teetering before this hit. First, keep in mind the Presidential election is really about just 8 or 9 states (PA, FL, OH, MI, WI, MN, IA, NV, AZ), and remember he really has to win all of them (or all but one depending on the one). All the other states are locked in already. Now look at how he's doing in those states today - he's down big in all but two, one of them (OH) he's pretty strong. The polls have error in them you say? Of course they do. So don't take them at face value, compare them on trend. Look where he his now versus November of 2016. He won by a whisker in 2016 and he's collapsed back in support in almost every state in contention for this cycle. Second, there is a crisis curve when it comes to Presidential support. Typically when a crisis hits, very shortly after, support for the President spikes up, no matter who the President is. Then, after some months of seeing the effects, they settle back. Now look at Trump's approval ratings in the past two weeks. They didn't spike, but didn't go down either - they are really in the same place they were. So best case for him, his numbers are inelastic to events, which takes me up to my first point. Worst case for Trump, he gets the slide down, and will be in an even worse position. Third and finally, this race will come down (in my view) to one thing - turnout among Democrats and Independents. Why? Because Republicans turn out reliably anyway, cycle after cycle. Democrats and independents don't. This is something the left has always struggled with. They didn't show up in 2016 because it looked like the race between two evils to a lot of people. This time? Look at the 2018 midterms. There is a deep anger among those not very conservative, against Trump. It drove huge turnout in 2018, and boom, blue wave. If the left and center are still angry in November 2020 (and I'd bet they will be), they will show up in much larger numbers. And then not only does Trump lose, he loses big. Feel free to call me on this in November. This is my guess. I could be wrong, but I feel pretty good about it. Trump's chances in November are less than 20%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: As someone who wasn't a huge Obama fan, it was nothing like this. Not even close. Not as profound, but it was there. And as I illustrated, the motivations were very different. But there was something similar that is worth keeping in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 1 minute ago, Jerksticks said: I think he just means blind support no matter what, even with the terrible. I’d say that’s pretty accurate The President is literally talking about marching people to the deaths to keep the economy going and making up stuff about more people committing suicide if they can't work, than he will have killed by infecting each other with COVID. AND PEOPLE ARE BUYING IT. While Obama had his share of dedicated followers, it is nothing like this. This President quite literally makes stuff up, and the next day millions of people are parroting it. It is not the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, NorthSideSox72 said: They didn't spike, but didn't go down either - they are really in the same place they were. So best case for him, his numbers are inelastic to events, which takes me up to my first point. Worst case for Trump, he gets the slide down, and will be in an even worse position. As far as I can tell this is false. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerksticks Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, NorthSideSox72 said: Not a chance. He was already teetering before this hit. First, keep in mind the Presidential election is really about just 8 or 9 states (PA, FL, OH, MI, WI, MN, IA, NV, AZ), and remember he really has to win all of them (or all but one depending on the one). All the other states are locked in already. Now look at how he's doing in those states today - he's down big in all but two, one of them (OH) he's pretty strong. The polls have error in them you say? Of course they do. So don't take them at face value, compare them on trend. Look where he his now versus November of 2016. He won by a whisker in 2016 and he's collapsed back in support in almost every state in contention for this cycle. Second, there is a crisis curve when it comes to Presidential support. Typically when a crisis hits, very shortly after, support for the President spikes up, no matter who the President is. Then, after some months of seeing the effects, they settle back. Now look at Trump's approval ratings in the past two weeks. They didn't spike, but didn't go down either - they are really in the same place they were. So best case for him, his numbers are inelastic to events, which takes me up to my first point. Worst case for Trump, he gets the slide down, and will be in an even worse position. Third and finally, this race will come down (in my view) to one thing - turnout among Democrats and Independents. Why? Because Republicans turn out reliably anyway, cycle after cycle. Democrats and independents don't. This is something the left has always struggled with. They didn't show up in 2016 because it looked like the race between two evils to a lot of people. This time? Look at the 2018 midterms. There is a deep anger among those not very conservative, against Trump. It drove huge turnout in 2018, and boom, blue wave. If the left and center are still angry in November 2020 (and I'd bet they will be), they will show up in much larger numbers. And then not only does Trump lose, he loses big. Feel free to call me on this in November. This is my guess. I could be wrong, but I feel pretty good about it. Trump's chances in November are less than 20%. There’s one other factor. Joe Biden. That guy is somehow less fit to be President than Trump. It’s incredible. People see it. People that really hate Trump don’t see it. But smart, calm folks see it. Cuomo would be better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, NorthSideSox72 said: Not as profound, but it was there. And as I illustrated, the motivations were very different. But there was something similar that is worth keeping in mind. If Barack Obama had told people to go back to work during a pandemic and that more people would die if they didn't go back to work, the reaction from his base would NOT have been cultish devotion. They at the very least would have asked some questions, and not parroted the idea that more people would die from now working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texsox Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 Just now, Jerksticks said: There’s one other factor. Joe Biden. That guy is somehow less fit to be President than Trump. It’s incredible. People see it. People that really hate Trump don’t see it. But smart, calm folks see it. Cuomo would be better Cuomo, right now, would win in a landslide. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerksticks Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: The President is literally talking about marching people to the deaths to keep the economy going and making up stuff about more people committing suicide if they can't work, than he will have killed by infecting each other with COVID. AND PEOPLE ARE BUYING IT. While Obama had his share of dedicated followers, it is nothing like this. This President quite literally makes stuff up, and the next day millions of people are parroting it. It is not the same. You’re arguing the WHAT they are supporting. We’re just saying the blind support is there no matter what, no matter how awful or good the WHAT is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerksticks Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: If Barack Obama had told people to go back to work during a pandemic and that more people would die if they didn't go back to work, the reaction from his base would NOT have been cultish devotion. They at the very least would have asked some questions, and not parroted the idea that more people would die from now working. Bullshiiiit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerksticks Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, Texsox said: Cuomo, right now, would win in a landslide. Agree. That speech yesterday was nails. Absolute nails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 Just now, Balta1701 said: As far as I can tell this is false. I never check any one poll, and Gallup especially. Try here instead, netting a lot of polls using historically-adjusted factors, to get the trend. There is a tiny spike, maybe, in the last couple days, but it's early to tell. Even if it really exists AND holds, he's still underwater, and only a couple points better than he was, which was pretty bad. And of course if he has his way, and deaths spike further, that will evaporate. Also worth noting, he's consistently had the worst ratings of any modern President (not worst at bad peak, but staying well into negative for almost his entire term). The last Presidents to be in his position (same or worse approval) in a similar timeframe were Carter and HW, See what happened to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mqr Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, Texsox said: Cuomo, right now, would win in a landslide. Yeah. But you’re getting Biden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, Jerksticks said: You’re arguing the WHAT they are supporting. We’re just saying the blind support is there no matter what, no matter how awful or good the WHAT is. That is quite literally the point. The Obama support had a limit. If he had asked them to risk killing their parents and grandparents, they wouldn't have jumped on MSNBC to say what a great idea that would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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