COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

[NorthSideSox72]

5 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

There’s one other factor.  Joe Biden.  That guy is somehow less fit to be President than Trump.  It’s incredible.  People see it.  People that really hate Trump don’t see it.  But smart, calm folks see it.  Cuomo would be better

There are better candidates in my view, but less fit than Trump? LOL, come on man. And I don't just mean my view, look at how he matches up with Trump in all the key states.

Also one of my main points is that Dems and Indies won't show up because they love the candidate - notice I didn't even mention Biden. It's that they despise Trump. And even though people certainly liked Obama, it was despising everything Obama and Clinton are/were that in great part drove people to Trump. In our current society, anger wins over love in politics.

 

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

I never check any one poll, and Gallup especially. Try here instead, netting a lot of polls using historically-adjusted factors, to get the trend. There is a tiny spike, maybe, in the last couple days, but it's early to tell. Even if it really exists AND holds, he's still underwater, and only a couple points better than he was, which was pretty bad. And of course if he has his way, and deaths spike further, that will evaporate.

Also worth noting, he's consistently had the worst ratings of any modern President (not worst at bad peak, but staying well into negative for almost his entire term). The last Presidents to be in his position (same or worse approval) in a similar timeframe were Carter and HW, See what happened to them.

 

And he's getting a free hour long commercial every day again.

[NorthSideSox72]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

And he's getting a free hour long commercial every day again.

That's true, but it's not like he needs name recognition. And even his own supporters tend to wince when he does those pressers, but support him anyway. I don't think those commercials are helping him. Any spike he might be getting is more like patriotism - the support of our leader in a crisis, just like W got after 9/11.

 

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

That's true, but it's not like he needs name recognition. And even his own supporters tend to wince when he does those pressers, but support him anyway. I don't think those commercials are helping him. Any spike he might be getting is more like patriotism - the support of our leader in a crisis, just like W got after 9/11.

 

Well the good news is that due to his awful administration and multiple disasters, W was limited to 1-term. 

[Jerksticks]

Just now, southsider2k5 said:

That is quite literally the point.  The Obama support had a limit.  If he had asked them to risk killing their parents and grandparents, they wouldn't have jumped on MSNBC to say what a great idea that would be.

 But he did do that exact thing with healthcare.  They are still telling people what a great idea it was.  
 

 

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

That's true, but it's not like he needs name recognition. And even his own supporters tend to wince when he does those pressers, but support him anyway. I don't think those commercials are helping him. Any spike he might be getting is more like patriotism - the support of our leader in a crisis, just like W got after 9/11.

 

That will change a lot once people start knowing people who die from this.  Right now it is still rather abstract, but as death rates go up, that will change.

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, Jerksticks said:

 But he did do that exact thing with healthcare.  They are still telling people what a great idea it was.  
 

 

This is ridiculous.

[pcq]

Just now, Tony said:

I feel like that is WIDELY inaccurate. I hope you're right, but I fear you aren't anywhere close. 

Good news is, we'll both find out in November. 

The election will be a major uproar regardless of polling. I will shelter in place Nov 3. 

[Soxbadger]

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

This is ridiculous.

To some Obamacare is the worst thing that has ever happened to the United States and it will always remain that way. 

[Texsox]

Just now, Soxbadger said:

To some Obamacare is the worst thing that has ever happened to the United States and it will always remain that way. 

The same was said for social security a few generations ago. 

[Jerksticks]

Just now, Soxbadger said:

To some Obamacare is the worst thing that has ever happened to the United States and it will always remain that way. 

It’s definitely a lot of good and a lot of bad. 
 

i think caving to insurance companies and lining their pockets is one of the bigger bads of the whole thing

[southsider2k5]

Just now, Soxbadger said:

To some Obamacare is the worst thing that has ever happened to the United States and it will always remain that way. 

Again, I was not a fan of Obama, but this is just an absurd correlation, and one that goes to my point of blind devotion.  Even as someone who was against the universal mandate, and the plan in general, there is no comparison between this and people needing to die so that the economy can get back to work.

[Harry Chappas]

25 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

There’s one other factor.  Joe Biden.  That guy is somehow less fit to be President than Trump.  It’s incredible.  People see it.  People that really hate Trump don’t see it.  But smart, calm folks see it.  Cuomo would be better

At least it is not Bernie..........I do not want to vote for Trump and I liked Bloomberg and now Cuomo.  It really is too bad that the DNC cannot get heir act together.

 

Even if Biden wins he can't fill 8 years can he?  

 

 

[caulfield12]

26 minutes ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

Not a chance. He was already teetering before this hit.

First, keep in mind the Presidential election is really about just 8 or 9 states (PA, FL, OH, MI, WI, MN, IA, NV, AZ), and remember he really has to win all of them (or all but one depending on the one). All the other states are locked in already. Now look at how he's doing in those states today - he's down big in all but two, one of them (OH) he's pretty strong. The polls have error in them you say? Of course they do. So don't take them at face value, compare them on trend. Look where he his now versus November of 2016. He won by a whisker in 2016 and he's collapsed back in support in almost every state in contention for this cycle.

Second, there is a crisis curve when it comes to Presidential support. Typically when a crisis hits, very shortly after, support for the President spikes up, no matter who the President is. Then, after some months of seeing the effects, they settle back. Now look at Trump's approval ratings in the past two weeks. They didn't spike, but didn't go down either - they are really in the same place they were. So best case for him, his numbers are inelastic to events, which takes me up to my first point. Worst case for Trump, he gets the slide down, and will be in an even worse position.

Third and finally, this race will come down (in my view) to one thing - turnout among Democrats and Independents. Why? Because Republicans turn out reliably anyway, cycle after cycle. Democrats and independents don't. This is something the left has always struggled with. They didn't show up in 2016 because it looked like the race between two evils to a lot of people. This time? Look at the 2018 midterms. There is a deep anger among those not very conservative, against Trump. It drove huge turnout in 2018, and boom, blue wave. If the left and center are still angry in November 2020 (and I'd bet they will be), they will show up in much larger numbers. And then not only does Trump lose, he loses big.

Feel free to call me on this in November. This is my guess. I could be wrong, but I feel pretty good about it. Trump's chances in November are less than 20%.

 

Florida is pretty close to a dead tie right now, Wisconsin a slight Trump lean (interestingly, Sanders performs better there.)

The problem is Biden doesn’t have any oxygen now.  He does get the benefit of not having to compete with Trump in terms of rallies and drawing crowds.

The Bloomberg contribution is still not defined.  
 

The Trump bump is probably not going to last...simply because he's too prone to saying stupid things because he wants to compete with Cuomo now everyday and attempt to take credit for daily stock market rises (and blame someone else when things go wrong.)

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/the-democrats-dont-understand-their-own-strength/608611/

Here’s your argument support.

[caulfield12]

We wouldn’t have a country left if all the media was as bad or as nasty as the left wing media.

Trump is far too busy for the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts but not golfing, Fox News or Twitter?

Paraphrase from the daily briefing.    Just don’t get it...the need to constantly blame.  Obama did it ONE time, his comment about those clinging to guns and religion (I think it was in Pennsylvania), and never heard the end of it.

 

World 1: Whom Democrats trust for coronavirus information, per a CBS/YouGov poll: the CDC 87 percent, your governor 75 percent, the national media 72 percent, friends and family 72 percent, religious leaders 44 percent, President Trump 14 percent.

World 2: Whom Republicans trust, according to the same poll: Trump 90 percent, the CDC 84 percent, friends and family 81 percent, religious leaders 71 percent, your governor 65 percent, the national media 13 percent.

 

 

Edited March 25, 2020 by caulfield12

[NorthSideSox72]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

Well the good news is that due to his awful administration and multiple disasters, W was limited to 1-term. 

You're kinda making my point. W's approval rating was in the 50's before 9/11, and immediately shot up to like 80%+. It fell over time and around this equivalent time was right around 50% again - exactly what I was saying. And now look at Trump who has not been above water since February of 2017. Where is Trump's huge bump? It seems nearly non-existent.

 

[Balta1701]

Just now, NorthSideSox72 said:

You're kinda making my point. W's approval rating was in the 50's before 9/11, and immediately shot up to like 80%+. It fell over time and around this equivalent time was right around 50% again - exactly what I was saying. And now look at Trump who has not been above water since February of 2017. Where is Trump's huge bump? It seems nearly non-existent.

 

He was below water in 2004, and combining hating on the right minority with negative campaigning against his opponent was enough to put him over the top. 

And that was when we had the voting rights act and no other nations openly acting to hurt the country by supporting the worst candidate. 45%, plus campaign funds and unlimited airtime? 

https://www.people-press.org/2008/12/18/bush-and-public-opinion/

[NorthSideSox72]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Florida is pretty close to a dead tie right now, Wisconsin a slight Trump lean (interestingly, Sanders performs better there.)

The problem is Biden doesn’t have any oxygen now.  He does get the benefit of not having to compete with Trump in terms of rallies and drawing crowds.

The Bloomberg contribution is still not defined.  
 

The Trump bump is probably not going to last...simply because he's too prone to saying stupid things because he wants to compete with Cuomo now everyday and attempt to take credit for daily stock market rises (and blame someone else when things go wrong.)

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/the-democrats-dont-understand-their-own-strength/608611/

Here’s your argument support.

I am not sure where you are getting your numbers about WI. Here are the polling averages I am seeing for the key states I mentioned, using Trump vs Biden head-to-heads, in B-rated and higher polls, for March, by range:

FL: Trump +1 to Biden +1 (this is a dead heat, as you pointed out)

OH: Biden +4 (this is a very surprising one, but only one poll out)

PA: Biden +6

MI: Biden +3 to Biden +7

WI: Biden +2 to Biden +6

AZ: Biden +1 to Biden +8 (this one is particularly interesting to me, with AZ in play it changes the landscape a bit)

MN, NV, IA: *No head-to-head polls in last few weeks

And again, Trump needs to win almost all of those to win the Presidency. Biden only needs a couple or three depending on which ones.

 

 

[NorthSideSox72]

10 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

He was below water in 2004, and combining hating on the right minority with negative campaigning against his opponent was enough to put him over the top. 

And that was when we had the voting rights act and no other nations openly acting to hurt the country by supporting the worst candidate. 45%, plus campaign funds and unlimited airtime? 

https://www.people-press.org/2008/12/18/bush-and-public-opinion/

He spent a little time underwater in his 4th year, that is true. Was around even-money at election time. Still a far better showing than Trump now, but more importantly and as I said and you keep ignoring,  look at his spike for 9/11. Where is Trump's spike? And if he doesn't have a material one, does that mean he also doesn't go down after? That's the operative question.

And there was nowhere near the level of anger against Bush in 2004 that there was against Trump now. Not even close. Which is what will drive voters. YOU might have really hated Bush, but the American public was not nearly as energized as it is right now (in both directions).

 

 

[Heads22]

6 minutes ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

I am not sure where you are getting your numbers about WI. Here are the polling averages I am seeing for the key states I mentioned, using Trump vs Biden head-to-heads, in B-rated and higher polls, for March, by range:

FL: Trump +1 to Biden +1 (this is a dead heat, as you pointed out)

OH: Biden +4 (this is a very surprising one, but only one poll out)

PA: Biden +6

MI: Biden +3 to Biden +7

WI: Biden +2 to Biden +6

AZ: Biden +1 to Biden +8 (this one is particularly interesting to me, with AZ in play it changes the landscape a bit)

MN, NV, IA: *No head-to-head polls in last few weeks

And again, Trump needs to win almost all of those to win the Presidency. Biden only needs a couple or three depending on which ones.

 

 

Will be absolutely shocked if Trump doesn't win Iowa. I think D's have a better chance in NC and AZ.

 

Also I thought we weren't doing politics in here

[NorthSideSox72]

1 minute ago, Heads22 said:

Will be absolutely shocked if Trump doesn't win Iowa. 

 

Also I thought we weren't doing politics in here

Iowa might be his strongest of all those states right now.

You're right though - this was supposed to be about COVID, including Trump's part in it, but we've gone well off course. Partly my fault too. Sorry.

Carry on with Corona!

 

[bmags]

2 hours ago, mqr said:

Yeah. But you’re getting Biden

Is there a big difference between cuomo and Biden? I’d lean Biden 10x /10.

Cuomo May be doing better press conferences but light foot/pritzker have done a much better job than deblasio/cuomo, including a high likelihood that cuomo delayed the shelter in place just because deblasio wanted it first.

[mqr]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

Is there a big difference between cuomo and Biden? I’d lean Biden 10x /10.

Cuomo May be doing better press conferences but light foot/pritzker have done a much better job than deblasio/cuomo, including a high likelihood that cuomo delayed the shelter in place just because deblasio wanted it first.

Politically? No probably not. 
 

Cuomo currently has a functioning brain though. 

[bmags]

Just now, mqr said:

Politically? No probably not. 
 

Cuomo currently has a functioning brain though. 

?

[Balta1701]

On 3/23/2020 at 2:47 PM, Quin said:

He's addressed that. It's because we're testing at a much higher capacity. You know the cases are out there, so you want to find them.

New York? They’re about to be our first nightmare. They run out of ICU beds on Friday and the Morgue already can’t keep up.