southsider2k5 Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 1 minute ago, StrangeSox said: The models are being driven down in response to the extreme social distancing measures being taken, as the models originally predicted. The actual authors of that model have come out and corrected the conservative media presentation that the original models were somehow "wrong" or that the problem is any less serious than they originally presented. If we abandon the social distancing measures now, we'll shoot right back to their original projections on uncontrolled spread. https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-pandemic-neil-ferguson-did-not-walk-back-covid-19-predictions/ Threads from the actual researchers below: The Federal Government took an equity stake in GM and Chrysler when they were bailed out in 2009. They could have made that a condition of aid in this bill if they desired. And if you read the article, that would be obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 You're right, the Daily Wire article does correctly cite that. The "revisions" have been misleading presented elsewhere as indication that the social distancing measures are an overreaction or can be lifted in the near future. Should have clicked through rather than assuming... What's good is that the researchers believe these measures will work! It'd be bad if we e-stop a significant portion of the economy and it doesn't even really stop the spread and lethality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinilaw08 Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 5 hours ago, Texsox said: Student Loans at $43B? I thought that forgiveness wasn't included. That can't be just interest, etc. https://www.npr.org/2020/03/26/821457551/whats-inside-the-senate-s-2-trillion-coronavirus-aid-package Per NPR, the bill provides that employers can contribute up to $5,250 to employee student loan payments without those contributions being treated as income to the employee. That might be what is being referenced here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almagest Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 12 minutes ago, StrangeSox said: You're right, the Daily Wire article does correctly cite that. The "revisions" have been misleading presented elsewhere as indication that the social distancing measures are an overreaction or can be lifted in the near future. Should have clicked through rather than assuming... What's good is that the researchers believe these measures will work! It'd be bad if we e-stop a significant portion of the economy and it doesn't even really stop the spread and lethality. You should also read what I said - nothing about lifting social distancing. I agree we need to do it. My point is, projected death estimates are going down which is a bright spot, and if you're doom and gloom right now this should help. I also think this will end up being a lot less fatal than we expect due to how we've seen novel diseases spread in the past few decades - if Neil Ferguson is raising his estimates on the infection rate we're looking at a lower overall CFR by default. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 Somewhat good news, "only" 433 positive tests compared to 650 yesterday in illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hogan873 Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 28 minutes ago, bmags said: Somewhat good news, "only" 433 positive tests compared to 650 yesterday in illinois. I don't imagine that's evidence of a peak, but hopefully we will see the effects of the social distancing soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 Compared to China America is seeing a spike in other modes of death associated with poor health. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: Compared to China America is seeing a spike in other modes of death associated with poor health. This is the easiest way to underreport deaths. Report them as dead of a heart condition, even though if it wasn't for COVID they wouldn't have died at this time. It is very similar to what we saw post hurricane in New Orleans and Puerto Rico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted March 27, 2020 Author Share Posted March 27, 2020 3 hours ago, Texsox said: https://www.teachersoftomorrow.org/texas/fully-online-teacher-certification I did mine on-line while working full time. This isn't the company, mine closed shortly after I finished. Basically you are looking at an Alternate Certification Program. You won't have to complete before getting hired, you can work on it as you teach. Basically you will have two tests to complete, a content test and a professional practices and responsibilities test. The classes will help you with the PPR. Teach for America or similar programs, we had one in Kansas City, the KC Teaching Fellows...where you get your Master's degree/certification (I had a previous one when I started, but Sports Admin) at night while you are working (it takes two summers and one full school year of night classes, 2 nights a week and some weekends.) The positive is that those programs can often pay for the full or at least half the cost of schooling, That said, it's less logical to do something like that, already having a PhD. Unusual circumstances. I guess with emergency needs or certs, there's a way to avoid this. It gets pretty overwhelming when you have to do 3-4 different plans, substitute when there are staffing needs, then I was coaching volleyball/soccer/basketball after school and taking classes for MA. Then passing Praxis (one for Social Studies, one for History). With prior experience and PhD, there's gotta be a simpler way. That said, the one disadvantage is going to be starting at a higher point at the salary scale (especially if they credit the university teaching program as steps up on the salary ladder) and the fact that most districts might think he's a good candidate to jump back to university at the earliest available opportunity when economic conditions improve. But some might value the education level/experience and think it's worth the risk for 1-2, maybe 3 years. Just depends on staffing needs and retirements at the high school level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 Quote In a forecast based on new data analyses, researchers find demand for ventilators and beds in US hospital intensive care units (ICUs) will far exceed capacity for COVID-19 patients as early as the second week of April. Deaths related to the current wave of COVID-19 in the US are likely to persist into July, even assuming people protect themselves and their communities by strongly adhering to social distancing measures and by taking other precautions advised by public health officials. “Our estimated trajectory of COVID-19 deaths assumes continued and uninterrupted vigilance by the general public, hospital and health workers, and government agencies,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, Director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine. “The trajectory of the pandemic will change – and dramatically for the worse – if people ease up on social distancing or relax with other precautions. We encourage everyone to adhere to those precautions to help save lives.” IHME’s analysis, based on observed death rates, estimates that over the next four months in the US, approximately 81,000 people will die from the virus. Estimates range between 38,000 and 162,000 US deaths. The analysis was developed in response to requests from the University of Washington School of Medicine and other US hospital systems and state governments working to determine when COVID-19 would overwhelm their ability to care for patients. The state-by-state data analysis projects demand for hospital services, including the availability of ventilators, beds, and general hospital beds. The forecast predicts that 41 states will need more ICU beds than they currently have available and that 11 states may need to increase their ICU beds by 50% or more to meet patient needs before the current wave of the pandemic ends. (The end is defined as fewer than 10 deaths per day nationwide.) This is an update on our current trajectory from the University of Washington. Considering some places are already pulling back on the shutdown orders, I am not optimistic that we will see only that many cases. http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/new-covid-19-forecasts-us-hospitals-could-be-overwhelmed-second-week-april-demand-icu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 https://gizmodo.com/teen-who-died-of-covid-19-was-denied-treatment-because-1842520539/amp?__twitter_impression=true First known teen to die of it in US went to Los Angeles area urgent care clinic. Sent away and told to try a hospital because he had no insurance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoYoIsMyHero Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 34 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: https://gizmodo.com/teen-who-died-of-covid-19-was-denied-treatment-because-1842520539/amp?__twitter_impression=true First known teen to die of it in US went to Los Angeles area urgent care clinic. Sent away and told to try a hospital because he had no insurance. Only in America Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/27/trump-malaria-coronavirus-152498 They’ve pulled doctors and FEMA and management officials off of other tasks to manage their malaria drug fantasy. They are offering doctors monetary bonuses for trying them on patients. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Congratulations Soxtalk we have now successfully upgraded this thread into the MLB forum because this is the worst possible universe every time. And given all the options I’m going with “he is an expert on injections” and I’m done and going to go light the nearby playground kids keep using on fire. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 How come Italy got good news today on no new cases and China is dong well and everything is falling apart here? Does anybody else think it is "possible" germ warfare is going on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soxbadger Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, greg775 said: How come Italy got good news today on no new cases and China is dong well and everything is falling apart here? Does anybody else think it is "possible" germ warfare is going on? Italys good news isnt really good, its still bad just better than the day before. And the US is being run by fools that arent qualified to be your assistant. Its sad that all of us have to suffer because of thr mistakes of the few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 13 minutes ago, greg775 said: How come Italy got good news today on no new cases and China is dong well and everything is falling apart here? Does anybody else think it is "possible" germ warfare is going on? You remember how you couldn’t figure out how touching a plastic feature could allow you to transmit a disease? You are the germ warfare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 42 minutes ago, greg775 said: How come Italy got good news today on no new cases and China is dong well and everything is falling apart here? Does anybody else think it is "possible" germ warfare is going on? Italy had 6000 new cases on Friday. Do you read? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted March 28, 2020 Author Share Posted March 28, 2020 https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-should-the-government-spend-to-save-a-life/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Beast Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-chicago-mccormick-place-hospital-20200328-px7xupa67je5fmbmr72prne6by-story.html Holy crap! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 2 hours ago, Soxbadger said: Italys good news isnt really good, its still bad just better than the day before. And the US is being run by fools that arent qualified to be your assistant. Its sad that all of us have to suffer because of thr mistakes of the few. Badger u are a reasonable person. I give the floor to badger. It seems to me we will be under this lockdown probably until next spring. A whole year of never leaving our houses. My question to you is a.) do you agree there will be no gatherings of more than 2-5 people til May 2021 or so and b.) can America survive that? Economy will be 80 percent unemployment; all small businesses closed and long expired. Will there be public unrest and starvation? and finally c.) Why are other countries getting a handle on this and we aren't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 2 hours ago, Balta1701 said: You remember how you couldn’t figure out how touching a plastic feature could allow you to transmit a disease? You are the germ warfare. How do you get away with the personal insults of greg? This board had become kinder and gentler. I still haven't read your answer to my question about mental health? Why is my mental health disregarded as unimportant regarding being cooped in, being forced to grow long hair with all shops closed? When before corona it was ALL about mental health and "feelings" of people. Well my feeling is myself and many like me can't take being cooped up, jailed if you will. That's why I get out just a little bit in accordance to legal guidelines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted March 28, 2020 Author Share Posted March 28, 2020 Italy had 969 deaths on Friday -- the biggest single-day jump since the crisis began. The country's health system has been pushed to the brink by the outbreak, especially in the north, which has seen the highest concentration of cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcq Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 Alex warned der Furor about getting a curve ball at those 0 and 2 press conferences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 8 hours ago, The Beast said: https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-chicago-mccormick-place-hospital-20200328-px7xupa67je5fmbmr72prne6by-story.html Holy crap! New York makes a hospital in a week through conversion, Chicago can do same. One of the reasons I think China building a hotel from scratch wasn’t that different from US capabilities, we have infrastructure in place. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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